Article: The 5 Worst Things To Happen To The Twins In 2015

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'll try and reach for one potential reason for optimism for Mauer for next year.  A lot of pretty good hitters (and Mauer was definitely a very good hitter) have had a bounce back season as they got old.  Torre at 35 had a nice jump from a 91 OPS+ season to a 124 OPS+ season. Ted Simmons, Frank Thomas, Morneau, etc.  So maybe Mauer has another high on-base season in him.  

Morneau somehow slashed his K% to a career low at age 33. For all the talk about needing to hit for power, I'd love to see what Mauer could do by reducing his K% back to his early career levels.

Edited November 18, 2015 by spycake

[Shaitan]

 

Santana at SS and Vargas implosion were also on the list right....

 

The latter did bring us Sano, in a sense...but I can't disagree with this statement.

[nater79a]

 

Good list.  One of my top concerns, maybe my top concern was the step back, or at least lack of development from all the hard throwing relief pitchers who were previously thought to be on the fast track to the majors.  It couldn't get more disappointing for the 2014 draft class with Burdi, Reed and Curtis all disappointing after strong 2014 seasons.  Add Zach Jones to the mix and it's easy to see why many people thought the MLB bullpen should have easily been able to be fixed internally last year.

 

Despite all the attention paid to relief arms in the draft lately, only two guys (out of 18!) pitched in relief in 2015 and were drafted by the team this decade. They were Ryan O'rourke picked in round 10 and AJ Achter in round 46 in 2010.  Oof.

 

Good one. I was going to mention this also. Burdi, Reed, Meyer should have been expected to contribute - at least by the latter point of 2015.

 

Hopefully the solid AFL campaigns by Burdi and Reed portends good things in 2016.

[James Richter]

 

Morneau somehow slashed his K% to a career low at age 33. For all the talk about needing to hit for power, I'd love to see what Mauer could do by reducing his K% back to his early career levels.

 

Yeah, given the BABIP and ISO he put up last season, turning 1/3 of his Ks into balls in play would have improved his 2015 slash to something like .284/.355/.400. Still way below Mauer's career standards, but a lot easier to swallow (all MLB 1B hit .259/.336/.444 last year).

[Nick Nelson]

 

The latter did bring us Sano, in a sense...but I can't disagree with this statement.

And the former brought us Escobar at SS. When you think about it, D-San's complete ineptitude may end up being a good thing. Had he hit semi-decently (650ish OPS), you wonder how long Molitor would have stuck with him and we'd have to deal with his lacking production and mistake-prone defense while Escobar continued to linger in a weird utility role.

 

So yeah, while it's unfortunate that Santana and Vargas collapsed, it paved the way for #1 and #2 on this list. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

There are too many specific names on the list.  Example:  Josmil Pinto.  It wasn't the "loss" of Pinto (the handwriting of that was on the wall in before this year), it's the complete lack of immediate, viable replacements for Suzuki.

 

Suzuki has been a 0.0 WAR player over the last four seasons. Except for the first half of 2014. Which still leaves seven other half seasons over the last four seasons.

 

A zero WAR player is easily replaceable by just about anyone, almost by definition. I would include Pinto, should the Twins have somehow played him regularly last year. I would include Murphy as a good replacement for next year too, should the Twins play him regularly.

[stringer bell]

His second half was rough, no doubt, to say that Dozier's overall season was less than satisfactory seems awfully harsh. He put up a 750 OPS with 28 HR, 39 doubles and 101 runs scored as a good defensive second baseman. That's pretty good.

Dozier was elite at the break despite a BA in the .250s, but by season's end his OPS+ was 101, barely above average, with the OBP falling from .345 to .307, less than his OBP in either '13 or '14. He had an overall better year in 2014, so to me that is less than satisfactory.

[djvang]

Are the Twins actually trying to DO something about the Mauer problem? Have they suggested that maybe he should change his approach? Stop taking that first pitch down the middle? Pull the ball into the huge right-center gap they're giving him? Have they mentioned to him that his production is simply not good enough for a #3 hitter?

 

Maybe this is being done behind the scenes but they really seem to be afraid of addressing the problem. And it IS a problem.

[Thrylos]

#1 Ryan and Co did not follow Gardenhire out the door...

#2 Inability by the aforementioned to make trades and give new life to a competing (but failing quickly) team, unlike their competitors.

 

FWIW: 

 

Arcia had a higher overall OPS and OPS+ than Hunter (.706/96 vs .702/89)in the majors.  The aforementioned decided to get him to the minors for a lesser player who hit from the wrong side of the plate (check the Twins' numbers against RHPs again; Arcia had a .780 OPS against them... A platoon with Hunter should had been in order but the aforementioned did not think so).  Arcia's minors' numbers are irrelevant at this point because he a. was likely frustrated and did not care and b. had nothing to prove at the level. 

 

As far as Meyer goes he had a .378 BABIP His 3.28 FIP < 3.66 FIP of 2014.  K% dropped a tick (27% to 24%) but BB% was the same (13.1% vs 13.5%).  So not that much "unraveling".  Other than the fact that the aforementioned thought that the sky was falling.   He does have mechanics issues that need to be solved, but the sky is still up and he pitched like he usually pitches other than the BABIP situation.

 

The Pinto situation is a combination of accidents and opinions about his defense (by the aforementioned) that may or may not be true, esp. compared to the guy they trotted out all season.  He still might play, if healthy.

 

So other than the Mauer situation (which I might or might not buy,) and Perkins being unprepared and decided to play hurt, the #1 in this post is the root cause of the issues (and if they did something when Perkins was unraveling, see #2 in this post), the Twins could had make the post-season.  But they didn't.

[kab21]

Phil Hughes would have made my list.  I really expected him to be the #2 that the Twins needed and he fell apart.

 

Still it is a pretty good list.

[bird]

 

Good point.  Even with our college reliever draft strategy not starting in earnest until 2012, that's not a good record.  (And not many of them look like they will start 2016 relieving in AAA either.)

 

For sure, the results have been a mixed bag. I'm still unwilling to concede that  the "strategy" is flawed. I base that on the overall history of failure of all picks for all teams past the top half of the first round. The injury history for these high-velo pitchers is almost shocking. But the Twin's track record is definitely spotty going back to Shooter Hunt, Carlos Guttierrez, and Billy Bullock.

 

Since then, injury, and not faulty selection, is to blame for much of the subdued optimism: Bard, Chargois, Melotakis, Jones, Romero, Landa, Curtiss, Cedaroth, and a few others. Expectations maybe got a little out of control (pun intended) regarding Burdi and Reed. But those two have issued zero walks in about 20+ innings so far in Arizona, so things are looking up for them. And we have others in the pipeline too: Peterson, Booser, Rosario, Jorge, etc., let alone guys who may still emerge like Pressly, Tonkin, Graham, and Meyer. It's important to note that every one of the pitchers named here possess good velocity, and that I'm not talking about guys like Hildenberger, Baxendale, Darnell, Rogers, etc.

 

Something tells me that before the end of the 2016 season, relief pitching might be described as a real strength rather than a catastrophic weakness.

Edited November 19, 2015 by birdwatcher

[Darius]

All of the things on that list are valid, but couldn't really be controlled or changed.  There were some things, however, that could've been, and in my opinion are the top 3 with a bullet:

 

1)  Ryan's reluctance to bring in BP help.  There isn't really an excuse for how that played out (at least, not a valid one).  He eventually did, but not soon enough. 

 

2)  Ryan's relucatance to call up Sano sooner.  I'm not saying he should have opened the seaon with the club, but the best player on the team, and future face of the franchise, spent half the year playing for another team.  You can try to convince yourself otherwise, but it had everything to do with service time, and nothing else.  You can say hindsight is 20/20....but it doesn't take Billy Beane to see that the lineup needed Sano.

 

3)  Perkins' collapse.  I don't know what his deal is, and I don't know everything that went on behind the scenes.  But, the facts that have been made known and observed:  He's come into camp out of shape two years in a row, and crumbled down the stretch two years in a row.  I'm not going to come and out and call him lazy.  Its entirely possible there is something else going on.  But, if it walks and quacks like a duck....there's a good chance its a duck.  Funny that his late season melt downs seem coincide with signing his $20M+ contract.   

 

If any one of those things go the other way, and all three were controllable situations that should have, the chances of a playoff birth go up in a major way.  I can live with Mauer getting old, and certain players lacking requisite talent or getting injured.  I can't live with incompetence and/or laziness costing the team wins.  The fans who fill, and have partially financed, that state-of-the-art stadium deserve better, and people should be held accountable (not just the player with the $23M/yr contract).

Edited November 19, 2015 by Darius

[Shane Wahl]

1. Is going to turn around significantly this year. Mauer will post an OPS above. 800 this year.

 

5. Arcia is going to explode. Same thing, .800+ OPS.

 

Mark it eight, dude.

[Mike Sixel]

Wasn't Bard hurt in college? That is my recollection of why I hated the pick.....he was already seriously injured. If not, well, I'm old, I forget things.....

[gunnarthor]

 

Wasn't Bard hurt in college? That is my recollection of why I hated the pick.....he was already seriously injured. If not, well, I'm old, I forget things.....

Yeah, he had a pectoral injury, IIRC.  Going into the season, he was projected as a first round pick but b/c of the injury he dropped.  It's hard to complain too much about that draft b/c it's looking like that might become of the Twins really good draft years (Buxton, Berrios, Chargois, Jones, Walker, Duffey) but I remember I was really hoping they'd take Pierce Johnson, who went one pick later.  Johnson was supposed to be a quick to the majors college arm.  

[bird]

 

Yeah, he had a pectoral injury, IIRC.  Going into the season, he was projected as a first round pick but b/c of the injury he dropped.  It's hard to complain too much about that draft b/c it's looking like that might become of the Twins really good draft years (Buxton, Berrios, Chargois, Jones, Walker, Duffey) but I remember I was really hoping they'd take Pierce Johnson, who went one pick later.  Johnson was supposed to be a quick to the majors college arm.  

 

So they took a chance on Bard instead of going with the sure thing? Impossible. 

[Michael (ClassicMNTwins)]

 

#6...IMHO...May being moved to the bullpen.

Not only should Pelfrey have been moved, (AND the Twins should have traded for a second reliever besides Jepson), but he may have actually found a real and successful niche in the bullpen. But the rotation would have been better with May in it. We might have even won a couple more games in the 2 month stretch where Pelfrey pitched just well enough to lose all of his decisions.

And now, because of what he did in the pen last year, the Twins may be convinced they should put this talented young starter in the pen for good. I fully expect a bounce back from Hughes. Santana had a bad stretch, but otherwise pitched as well as I've ever seen him. But how awesome would it be to see Gibson, Berrios, May and Duffey all in the rotation together?

I have gone on assuming May's return to the rotation, given the mediocrity & ineffectiveness of Mr. "Bats In The" Pelfrey. Thanks, now I've got another reason to be concerned with the braintrust's madness without any discernible, logical method as it impacts the starting rotation. As if they opined in unision: "Mmmnn, yes, let's send that perfectly good mid-rotation arm to the bullpen, we don't need him with our great wealth of starting options..."

[laloesch]

#1   Santana PED suspension.  Huge hit to the team.  Probably 4 or 5 win difference at least.

 

#2   Starting rotation meltdown after the all-star break where the Twins won 5 of 21 games.  Cost us the playoffs and illustrated how weak the rotation could be especially without Santana.  Tommy Milone, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes all horrible in this stretch.   

 

#3   Joe Mauer's continued implosion that began in earnest in 2014.  Having FULLY recovered from concussion symptoms for 2 + years, Joe surprisingly(or unsurprisingly to some) continued declining in almost every statistical category despite round after round of scathing rebuttals by his supporters on this forum.  Again, his lack of production was a significant reason the Twins fell short of the playoffs.   

 

#4    Trevor May banished to the bullpen in favor of Mike Pelfrey.  Despite some shorter outings early in the season Trevor was the Twins best starter early on.  Unfortunately for him, MIke Pelfrey made a big big stink about being sent to the pen and Trevor was sent there in early July due to lack of quality relievers.  This became a much bigger factor later on in the season when Mike became ineffective as he stopped using his split finger fastball.   

 

#5    As many here correctly predicted before the season began, the bullpen was a thorn in our side.  When it became apparent that they were in full meltdown mode after the break Ryan failed to take corrective measures in time which cost the team on the order of 8-10 wins.  Moving Trevor May to the bullpen was a desperation move and the Jepsen trade was too little too late.  Huge fail on Terry Ryan's part. 

[gil4]

 

Are the Twins actually trying to DO something about the Mauer problem? Have they suggested that maybe he should change his approach? Stop taking that first pitch down the middle? Pull the ball into the huge right-center gap they're giving him? Have they mentioned to him that his production is simply not good enough for a #3 hitter?

 

Maybe this is being done behind the scenes but they really seem to be afraid of addressing the problem. And it IS a problem.

They have tried various combinations of the above, and there were several noticeable changes in approach last year.  The attempt to "pull the ball into the huge right-center gap they're giving him" resulted in a ton of K's and pop-ups. The return to doing what he does best resulted in a bit of a hot streak, but didn't last.  The only one I haven't notices is the last one on your list, but it can't be too long in coming.

[jharaldson]

 

Throughout his career, he has made up for his lack of home run pop by being an on-base machine who consistently set up the hitters behind him for success. He didn't do that this year, and with a lack of injuries or limiting circumstances to point at, this is beginning to look like what Mauer truly is at age 32: a mediocre hitter who belongs closer to the bottom of the lineup than the top.

 

I was doing some digging and here is a statistic I came up with on how out of place Mauer is in the 3rd spot in the lineup.  I went to Fangraphs and found the player for each team that had the most plate appearances in the 3rd spot of the lineup and found their OPS while in that spot for their team.

 

ex:  http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C&season=0&split=11.3

 

 I then ranked all of them by OPS descending and this is what I found:

 

 

Mauer is by far the worst falling a full 42 points below the 29th ranked guy.  My biggest disappointment is that Paul Molitor let the 3 hole in the lineup be filled with such low production.

 

Edited November 20, 2015 by jharaldson

[ashbury]

Mauer is by far the worst falling a full 42 points below the 29th ranked guy.  My biggest disappointment is that Paul Molitor let the 3 hole in the lineup be filled with such low production.

 

Molitor did try Sano in the 3rd spot, and was rewarded with a .587 OPS.

 

Anybody else he might have tried, taking their full season stats at face value, among those with enough PA to qualify, would have raised our ranking in the above list to... next to last. Escobar at .754.

 

There just weren't enough good options to cause Molitor's hand to be forced. One can argue that Sano should have been moved up from 4th to 3rd more often. Not a game changer.

 

The problem was the roster itself. This is not yet a good hitting team.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I was doing some digging and here is a statistic I came up with on how out of place Mauer is in the 3rd spot in the lineup.  I went to Fangraphs and found the player for each team that had the most plate appearances in the 3rd spot of the lineup and found their OPS while in that spot for their team.

 

ex:  http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C&season=0&split=11.3

 

 I then ranked all of them by OPS descending and this is what I found:

 

 

 

Mauer is by far the worst falling a full 42 points below the 29th ranked guy.  My biggest disappointment is that Paul Molitor let the 3 hole in the lineup be filled with such low production.

Dislike, but good research.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

#1   Santana PED suspension.  Huge hit to the team.  Probably 4 or 5 win difference at least.

 

Lots of people have said this, but I don't buy it. I don't think Santana deserves the blame (I know this isn't a blaming thread, sorry) for what happened with the other deficiencies in the lineup.

 

Also, the Twins were 49-40 going into the All Star break. Hard to see how Santana would have made them 53-36 or better!

 

Otherwise I can't disagree with the rest of your list too much.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

I was doing some digging and here is a statistic I came up with on how out of place Mauer is in the 3rd spot in the lineup.  I went to Fangraphs and found the player for each team that had the most plate appearances in the 3rd spot of the lineup and found their OPS while in that spot for their team.

 

ex:  http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C&season=0&split=11.3

 

 I then ranked all of them by OPS descending and this is what I found:

 

 

 

Mauer is by far the worst falling a full 42 points below the 29th ranked guy.  My biggest disappointment is that Paul Molitor let the 3 hole in the lineup be filled with such low production.

 

Couple points. 

 

1) Batting order really doesn't matter and is way overstated by fans. 

2) The few studies of batting order that I am aware of suggest the #3 hitter is the most overrated spot -  The most important spots in a batting order are the 1, 2 and 4 spots. 

3) OPS isn't the best stat and OBP is probably a better guide.

 

That said, I'm honestly not trying to defend Mauer.  He was horrible last year and is a real problem going forward.  But batting order doesn't really matter much.