Article: The 5 Worst Things To Happen To The Twins In 2015

[Nick Nelson]

The 2015 season was largely a positive one for the Twins, and on Monday we touched on five of the most encouraging developments that took place.

 

It wasn't all sunshine and roses, though. So today we'll look at the five most unfortunate things that transpired this year, from a big-picture perspective.1. Joe Mauer's decline continued

 

We hoped that he would regain some of his diminished sharpness and plate discipline as he moved away from his concussion issues. We hoped the transition to first base would result in improved power numbers driven by stronger legs. We hoped that Mauer could return to being a star-caliber player whose veteran bat would be the centerpiece in an athletic young lineup.

 

It hasn't happened. It's getting harder to believe it's going to happen.

 

The 2015 season marked the first time that Mauer has ever posted an OPS+ below 100, ending a string of 11 consecutive above-average offensive performances dating back to 2004. He batted .265. He slugged .380 with 10 home runs from a power position. He struck out almost twice as often as he walked.

 

His outstanding numbers with runners in scoring position prevented him from being a total liability, but with the bases empty (59 percent of his plate appearances) Mauer hit .232/.284/.349, while always batting at the top of the order. Throughout his career, he has made up for his lack of home run pop by being an on-base machine who consistently set up the hitters behind him for success. He didn't do that this year, and with a lack of injuries or limiting circumstances to point at, this is beginning to look like what Mauer truly is at age 32: a mediocre hitter who belongs closer to the bottom of the lineup than the top.

 

For better or for worse, Mauer – still owed $23 million annually through 2018 – is going to be around for a while yet. We can only hope for better.

 

2. Josmil Pinto basically dropped out of the catcher conversation

 

Pinto's receiving skills have long been considered marginal at best, but he nonetheless entered this season as the Twins' best hope for an eventual Kurt Suzuki replacement at catcher who could actually deliver some offensive punch. The hitting ability was there, so it was just a matter of making enough improvements defensively behind the plate in order for the Twins to entrust him with handling the pitching staff.

 

Unfortunately, Pinto endured a very rough season that likely ends any real possibility of him becoming a regular backstop for the Twins. He battled ongoing concussion issues throughout the summer that cost him two months and limited him to 72 total games (in which he posted an ugly .669 OPS). After returning to Rochester in August, he played DH exclusively the rest of the way.

 

When you combine the brain injury concerns with the iffy defensive abilities, it's increasingly difficult to imagine the Twins giving Pinto any kind of real shot to become their starting catcher, and that's a shame because no one else in the organization offers his kind of offensive upside at the position. That remains true even after the acquisition of John Ryan Murphy.

 

3. Glen Perkins fell apart in the second half

 

Perkins' tailspin at the end of the 2014 season was a little worrisome, but he seemingly erased any doubts with a first half in 2015 that saw him convert every save chance while earning on All-Star nod.

 

However, his quick and shocking drop-off after the break, and especially his costly poor outings late in the year, created some major question marks about his outlook going forward.

 

Two springs ago, the Twins handed Perkins an extension through the 2017 season with hopes that he'd be their closer for the duration of that term. Now, Terry Ryan is reluctant to commit to Perk as the ninth-inning man for 2016, and no one can blame him. The lefty was consistently ineffective for the final two months this year. After the All-Star Game, he never put together three consecutive appearances without allowing a run. Opponents batted .360 against him with seven home runs.

 

Given that Perkins has now tailed off in the late stages of back-to-back seasons, could this be an issue of preparation and conditioning? Ryan seemingly intimated such with this answer in his Offseason Handbook interview:

 

http://s16.postimg.org/6ow3j6o2t/TRperk.png

If that's the case, the problem at least seems correctable. Perkins doesn't strike me as the type of guy who's going to sit back and tolerate this kind of performance from himself, so perhaps his heartbreaking finish in 2015 will serve as a wake-up call.

 

4. Alex Meyer unraveled

 

When the Twins traded Denard Span to the Nationals back in 2012, they acquired a player that they viewed as a potential front-end starting pitcher. Meyer cultivated his ace-in-waiting status during his first couple years in Minnesota's system, putting up huge strikeout numbers while shutting down minor league hitters at Double-A and Triple-A.

 

This year, however, everything came undone. Meyer floundered in the International League, which he had dominated in 2014. From spring training through September, the big right-hander constantly struggled to find the strike zone... and his confidence.

 

It's far too soon to give up on the 25-year-old Meyer. But it might be time to give up on the idea of him as a starter.

 

With his command issues and resulting huge pitch counts, he had an uphill climb in order to break into the rotation for a Twins team that values efficiency and deep outings from starters. He spent most of this season in the bullpen and it's looking like that is where his future lies.

 

The good news is that he can be a major asset there, with triple-digit heat and a wipe-out breaking ball. The bad news is that removing him from the rotation equation leaves the Twins system very thin on high-ceiling starters that miss bats.

 

5. Oswaldo Arcia stopped hitting

 

Over the years, Arcia has exhibited some notable downsides – namely, a dreadful lack of range in the outfield and some boisterous mannerisms on the field that tend to rub some people the wrong way. He has made up for these things, however, by consistently hitting the crap out of the ball.

 

Arcia rose fast through the minors, clobbering the competition at each stop, and reached the big leagues at age 21. He has accumulated a .741 OPS with 36 home runs in 853 MLB plate appearances, all before turning 25, becoming one of the most accomplished hitters in the game for his age. He looked like a long-term fixture in the middle of the lineup.

 

Arcia was beginning to heat up after a slow start this year before landing on the disabled list in May. He headed to Triple-A after being reinstated, seemingly for a temporary rehab stint, but never returned to the Twins.

 

At Rochester, Arcia's bat went amiss for the first time in his career. Outside of a brief home run flurry in July, he was inexplicably flat-out awful against Triple-A pitching for a full three months, batting just .199 with a .630 OPS while showing almost no plate discipline.

 

His lost year puts the Twins in a tough position, because Arcia will be out of options next spring, meaning he'll either need to be rostered or exposed to waivers. It's tough to count on him after his brutal showing in 2015, but it'd be even tougher to simply let his potent lefty power bat slip away.

 

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[nytwinsfan]

Yup, that's a pretty solid list. Hard to argue with that. Some people might say Buxton's poor major league performance, but nah, I don't think that much time under those conditions (never gettting to play every day for an extended period of time) means much.

[Brandon Brooks]

 

Yup, that's a pretty solid list. Hard to argue with that. Some people might say Buxton's poor major league performance, but nah, I don't think that much time under those conditions (never gettting to play every day for an extended period of time) means much.

 

I'd say that Buxton getting injured and having to miss quite a bit of time very shortly after getting the call was the worst Buxton-related point this year. I wanted more!

[Kwak]

There are too many specific names on the list.  Example:  Josmil Pinto.  It wasn't the "loss" of Pinto (the handwriting of that was on the wall in before this year), it's the complete lack of immediate, viable replacements for Suzuki.  The "loss" of one is sort of expected, the fact that the cupboard is completely bare (internally) for several years is the problem.

 

The failure of Meyer--was overcome by the success of Duffey.  The real problem was that there was a  bullpen problem that ensued because Stauffer was a failure, Graham wasn't trustworthy, May was treated like a shuttlecock, and the AAA promotions didn't work-out.

 

The Arcia failure is tolerable--there are many other (better) options.  An  unspoken problem is third base.  Plouffe is OK, but what about two years from now when he is far more expensive.  Sano may or may not be the solution--the problem is there isn't anybody else coming up to displace them.  There are plenty of others in the pipeline for SS, 2B, and 1B--but not 3B.

[DocBauer]

Oh man.....what a bummer. I wish I hadn't read the "good things" list first.

[DocBauer]

#6...IMHO...May being moved to the bullpen.

 

Not only should Pelfrey have been moved, (AND the Twins should have traded for a second reliever besides Jepson), but he may have actually found a real and successful niche in the bullpen. But the rotation would have been better with May in it. We might have even won a couple more games in the 2 month stretch where Pelfrey pitched just well enough to lose all of his decisions.

 

And now, because of what he did in the pen last year, the Twins may be convinced they should put this talented young starter in the pen for good. I fully expect a bounce back from Hughes. Santana had a bad stretch, but otherwise pitched as well as I've ever seen him. But how awesome would it be to see Gibson, Berrios, May and Duffey all in the rotation together?

[Brandon]

Santana at SS and Vargas implosion were also on the list right....

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

#1 Ervin Santana serves 80 game suspension for using the performance enhancing drug, Stanozolol.

 

As a result, Santana misses 15-17 turns in the rotation. If Santana starts those games, Minnesota's chances of winning three or four more games vastly improves, and fans get to watch at least one postseason game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The writing was on the wall last year for Pinto to make this list. Not surprising at all to see him regress in AAA and have no place on the Twins team, and perhaps not even in the org anymore.

 

Is he due in Venezuela soon? Would be nice to see him get back on track, for the sake of his future MLB job prospects:

 

http://m.eluniversal.com/deportes/beisbol/151111/tigres-esperan-a-josmil-pinto-para-el-fin-de-semana

Edited November 18, 2015 by spycake

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the encouraging thing about this is that most of the failures are younger guys not stepping up.  That's not terribly unusual, and I do think that at least one of Pinto/Arcia/Meyer will likely step up and suddenly be an option that we counted out.  That's somewhat normal.  On the other hand, it's really really really hard to believe that Mauer, who was an HOF catcher/top of the order bat could see that hit tool fall so hard.  I have to think he's got a few more seasons in him given his age.  I suppose it is not without precedent that a 32 year old player could suddenly lose everything so to speak, but typically that doesn't happen for guys with Mauer level talent.  I really want to believe that something will change there.  He may not pick up that extra power, but it would be nice to see a .400 OBP again with a bunch of doubles.

[Blackjack]

Good list.

 

I think Pinto is gone.

 

Perkins, with the motivation of Jepson closing a few games, will be alright, he'll work harder in the off season and the Twins actually have a nice backend of the bullpen combo.

 

I think Meyer, settling down into the married routine, will be alright, maybe not that top starter option that people want, but maybe he could be that third bullpen piece the Twins need. And over time he could develop that third pitch and become a good to great starter. Patience, it takes tall pitchers longer.

 

Arcia is a headcase with lots of talent.  He'll be on a very short leash this spring, if he isn't producing by May he's gone.  Bad part is that he knows another team will pick him up, wheres his incentive??

 

Mauer is what he is at this point, declining fast, I think most people didn't realize how good he was until he had the concussions and started his decline. Until the Twins get more hitters that are better than he is, he'll still be at the top of the order.

 

#1 on my list would be the Ervin Santana suspension. At times he pitched pretty good but you have to wonder how much PEDS helped his career and with the Twins having him under contract for three more years -- yikes.  Unbelievable that MLB can't put a clause into contracts that automatically nullifies the contract if the player is caught abusing PEDS.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

#6...IMHO...May being moved to the bullpen.

Not only should Pelfrey have been moved, (AND the Twins should have traded for a second reliever besides Jepson), but he may have actually found a real and successful niche in the bullpen. But the rotation would have been better with May in it. We might have even won a couple more games in the 2 month stretch where Pelfrey pitched just well enough to lose all of his decisions.

And now, because of what he did in the pen last year, the Twins may be convinced they should put this talented young starter in the pen for good. I fully expect a bounce back from Hughes. Santana had a bad stretch, but otherwise pitched as well as I've ever seen him. But how awesome would it be to see Gibson, Berrios, May and Duffey all in the rotation together?

 

I absolutely hate the idea of May being relegated to the bullpen another season, but I also think Milone - Starter/May - Bullpen helps this team more than May - Starter/Milone - Bullpen.

[spinowner]

 

 

#1 on my list would be the Ervin Santana suspension. At times he pitched pretty good but you have to wonder how much PEDS helped his career and with the Twins having him under contract for three more years -- yikes.  Unbelievable that MLB can't put a clause into contracts that automatically nullifies the contract if the player is caught abusing PEDS.

I have to agree with this. It should have been #1 and I'm surprised it wasn't on the top (bottom?) five list. Compared to the five who did make the list the Santana suspension was the most avoidable disappointment. By far the most avoidable. A player with his amount of experience should know he needs to be sure about everything he puts into his body. So either he was stupid enough to take the illegal supplement or he was stupid enough not to monitor what he took. And as an aside, stanazolol is probably the easiest illegal supplement to detect. The human body metabolizes it into another chemical that is then excreted, and that chemical is easy to detect and is never present in the human body except if stanazolol has been used.

 

Getting slightly off-topic, I agree that a simple suspension without pay is not a sufficient deterrent to PED use. Santana is getting a huge payoff even after the suspension is subracted from his contract. Voiding the contract, though, is not enough because the player can still sign another big contract, if not with the team who signed the player originally then with another team. I think the player should lose all service time and be required to play for the major league minimum. No arbitration rights and no contract extensions until he accrues enough new service time to qualify for free agency.

This would obviously have to be negotiated in the next CBA. If the union and management are truly serious about this issue something like this needs to be considered. The union needs to get past the idea that these restrictions interfere with player rights. Rather, the union needs to see that this protects clean players (the overwhelming majority of membership) from the actions of the rule breakers. The best clean players will be the ones getting the big payoffs instead of the cheaters.

 

Edited November 18, 2015 by spinowner

[Squirrel]

 

Getting slightly off-topic, I agree that a simple suspension without pay is not a sufficient deterrent to PED use. Santana is getting a huge payoff even after the suspension is subracted from his contract. Voiding the contract, though, is not enough because the player can still sign another big contract, if not with the team who signed the player originally then with another team. I think the player should lose all service time and be required to play for the major league minimum. No arbitration rights and no contract extensions until he accrues enough new service time to qualify for free agency.

This would obviously have to be negotiated in the next CBA. If the union and management are truly serious about this issue something like this needs to be considered. The union needs to get past the idea that these restrictions interfere with player rights. Rather, the union needs to see that this protects clean players (the overwhelming majority of membership) from the actions of the rule breakers. The best clean players will be the ones getting the big payoffs instead of the cheaters.

You are correct. This is completely off topic. I get the sentiment, but this latter paragraph is better suited for a discussion in the 'Other Baseball' Forum. That said, please, everyone, let's not turn this thread into a PED thread. You can mention the peripherals, and this was a big one, but let's not get sidetracked from the topic at hand.

 

Thanks.

[markos]

I'm a little surprised Brian Dozier's second half collapse didn't make the list. Perkins had the more dramatic collapse, but he only pitched 20 innings. Dozier played almost every game, batted at the top of the lineup, and had only a .642 OPS (and .275 OBP!) from July 1st on. 

[mikelink45]

#1 Mauer - yes, this is now a three more year problem.  The Twins better find someone to work with him that can help them recover some more of their investment.

#2 Nolasco - we still have him for another year and he is clogging the system.

#3 Santana - Not Ervin, but Danny.  We wasted a lot of SS time hoping he would not be a rookie fluke.

#4 The bullpen, yes Perkins, but Stauffer(?), a diminishing Fien, Graham being stored and not reliable...

#5 Not Pinto, but Suzuki - we paid for a one year career year and he went back to what he was (Hughes is close to this too).  Pinto is a shame, but he was not with us, nor was Arcia or Meyer - it would have been good if they have blossomed, but they are minor league problems.  Suzuki was a major.

[ThejacKmp]

 

#6...IMHO...May being moved to the bullpen.

Not only should Pelfrey have been moved, (AND the Twins should have traded for a second reliever besides Jepson), but he may have actually found a real and successful niche in the bullpen. But the rotation would have been better with May in it. We might have even won a couple more games in the 2 month stretch where Pelfrey pitched just well enough to lose all of his decisions.

And now, because of what he did in the pen last year, the Twins may be convinced they should put this talented young starter in the pen for good. I fully expect a bounce back from Hughes. Santana had a bad stretch, but otherwise pitched as well as I've ever seen him. But how awesome would it be to see Gibson, Berrios, May and Duffey all in the rotation together?

 

They did trade for a second reliever, Neil Cotts. You may not like that trade but they did get a second guy.

[Nick Nelson]

 

#1 Ervin Santana serves 80 game suspension for using the performance enhancing drug, Stanozolol.

This list is based more on long-term implications than simply impact on the 2015 season, which is why Erv's suspension wasn't listed. In the long run, it could actually be viewed as beneficial in a way. Saved some innings for his arm at the front end of a four-year deal. 

 

Plus, others pitched about as well as he could've been expected to during his absence. 

 

 

Santana at SS and Vargas implosion were also on the list right....

The magnitude of their drop-offs was striking, no doubt, but I viewed both more as placeholders than long-term fixtures, which is why their bad seasons were less concerning to me than guys like Meyer, Arcia and Pinto. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They did trade for a second reliever, Neil Cotts. You may not like that trade but they did get a second guy.

I assume he meant before the July 31st deadline.  Cotts wasn't acquired until August 21st.

[stringer bell]

I would combine both All-Stars second half decline. Dozier and Perkins were great 'til the All-Star Game, but bad enough in the last 70 games to make their overall seasons less than satisfactory.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I would combine both All-Stars second half decline. Dozier and Perkins were great 'til the All-Star Game, but bad enough in the last 70 games to make their overall seasons less than satisfactory.

His second half was rough, no doubt, to say that Dozier's overall season was less than satisfactory seems awfully harsh. He put up a 750 OPS with 28 HR, 39 doubles and 101 runs scored as a good defensive second baseman. That's pretty good. 

[bird]

#1 by a long shot for me was Ervin Santana being a cheater.

 

2. Arcia being utterly futile in every respect.

 

3. Mauer. Sigh.

 

4. Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana , and Josmil Pinto going 0 for 3 in terms of establishing themselves as part of the future.

 

5. Alex Meyer.

[Rick Niedermann]

Mauer's 2015 production certainly makes this list.  But I think he will have a bounce back year in 2016.  It can happen.  Morneau won a batting title after his long battle with concussions.   And I certainly see the possibility of Danny Santana rebounding in 2016.  He is just to talented. He seems to have had the classic "sophomore jinx".  I wouldn't be surprised to see him open the season as the starting CF.  Perkins really concerns me. He sure ran out of gas again. But I expect a bounce back from him too. The concussion issue sure has bitten the Twins.  Josmil Pinto had so much promise until his concussions.  He appears to be depth at DH now.  Not in the top 5, but still a disappointment was Kennys Vargas. 

[nicksaviking]

Good list.  One of my top concerns, maybe my top concern was the step back, or at least lack of development from all the hard throwing relief pitchers who were previously thought to be on the fast track to the majors.  It couldn't get more disappointing for the 2014 draft class with Burdi, Reed and Curtis all disappointing after strong 2014 seasons.  Add Zach Jones to the mix and it's easy to see why many people thought the MLB bullpen should have easily been able to be fixed internally last year.

 

Despite all the attention paid to relief arms in the draft lately, only two guys (out of 18!) pitched in relief in 2015 and were drafted by the team this decade. They were Ryan O'rourke picked in round 10 and AJ Achter in round 46 in 2010.  Oof.

[DocBauer]

I assume he meant before the July 31st deadline.  Cotts wasn't acquired until August 21st.

Actually, yeah. I should have been more precise.

[DocBauer]

I absolutely hate the idea of May being relegated to the bullpen another season, but I also think Milone - Starter/May - Bullpen helps this team more than May - Starter/Milone - Bullpen.

I feel, though it is somewhat unfortunate, that either May or Duffey will have to pitch from the pen this season. You want your best arms, and barring trade or injury, there just enough enough room for all of the young guns in the rotation as of right now. My fear is this not changing in 2017...if not sooner. And May may be the target here.

 

I have changed my original thinking on Milone. I now believe he might make an excellent swing man reliever. After the past couple of seasons, perhaps physically he could hold up better. While we always think of relievers as being hard throwers, a softer tossing lefty like Milone, with experience as a SP, and having faced both righties and lefties in his career, could be used as a starter, long and middle reliever, and possibly an occasional LOOGY situation . (Assuming he isn't traded)

[Mike Sixel]

 

#1 by a long shot for me was Ervin Santana being a cheater.

 

2. Arcia being utterly futile in every respect.

 

3. Mauer. Sigh.

 

4. Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana , and Josmil Pinto going 0 for 3 in terms of establishing themselves as part of the future.

 

5. Alex Meyer.

 

I like this list a lot (well, you know what I mean).....

 

All of those were big in 2015, and some are HUGE for 2016 and beyond.

 

I do agree, May to the bullpen is near/in the top 5 bottom things for me also. I get where people don't agree, but it's how I feel. 

[gunnarthor]

I'll try and reach for one potential reason for optimism for Mauer for next year.  A lot of pretty good hitters (and Mauer was definitely a very good hitter) have had a bounce back season as they got old.  Torre at 35 had a nice jump from a 91 OPS+ season to a 124 OPS+ season. Ted Simmons, Frank Thomas, Morneau, etc.  So maybe Mauer has another high on-base season in him.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Despite all the attention paid to relief arms in the draft lately, only two guys (out of 18!) pitched in relief in 2015 and were drafted by the team this decade. They were Ryan O'rourke picked in round 10 and AJ Achter in round 46 in 2010.  Oof.

Good point.  Even with our college reliever draft strategy not starting in earnest until 2012, that's not a good record.  (And not many of them look like they will start 2016 relieving in AAA either.)

[laloesch]

 

#6...IMHO...May being moved to the bullpen.

Not only should Pelfrey have been moved, (AND the Twins should have traded for a second reliever besides Jepson), but he may have actually found a real and successful niche in the bullpen. But the rotation would have been better with May in it. We might have even won a couple more games in the 2 month stretch where Pelfrey pitched just well enough to lose all of his decisions.

And now, because of what he did in the pen last year, the Twins may be convinced they should put this talented young starter in the pen for good. I fully expect a bounce back from Hughes. Santana had a bad stretch, but otherwise pitched as well as I've ever seen him. But how awesome would it be to see Gibson, Berrios, May and Duffey all in the rotation together?

 

 

Agreed.  A rotation of Santana, Hughes, Gibson, May and Berrios / Duffey is far superior to the rotation in 2015.