Article: Keeping Track Of All The Moving Pieces In The Twins Offseason

[Brandon Warne]

The Minnesota Twins made a flurry of moves over the past few days that have left fans and media types buzzing with anticipation not only for the 2016 season, but also the rest of this offseason. It’s not even Thanksgiving yet, and the Twins have already made or have the wheels in motion on three moves that had direct 40-man and even 25-man roster implications.

 

The trade to move Chris Herrmann to the Diamondbacks was mostly borne out of a necessity to clear roster space. Even with catcher Eric Fryer outrighted off the 40-man roster at the end of the season, the odds that Herrmann would stick through the winter with the Twins were slim. The Twins flipped him to Arizona and got a toolsy, old-for-his level outfielder in Daniel Palka, who might remind some of Adam Brett Walker with his big-time power and propensity for the strikeout. Both of those characteristics are a bit more tempered with Palka, though he did post the California League’s only 20-20 season in 2015 with 29 home runs and 24 stolen bases. Again, he was old for the level — just a half year above the average age of other High-A contemporaries according to Baseball Reference — and might not have a long-term position, but it’s still an ample return for the less-than-stellar game tape Herrmann had put up in parts of four seasons with the big league club.The other two moves were surprising. The Twins won the bidding for Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park, a 29-year-old masher who has hit 105 home runs over the past two seasons in the KBO. For reference, former Twins left-hander Andrew Albers went to the KBO immediately after the Twins took him off the roster, and NL Rookie of the Year finalist Jung Ho Kang of the Pirates was a nine-year veteran of the KBO before he came over to the big leagues. Kang and Park were teammates with the Nexen Heroes from 2011 to 2014. Kang was coming off an incredible season with nearly a 1.200 OPS with the Heroes when he made the defection a year ago and put together a solid .287/.355/.461 season for Pittsburgh this year as a 28 year old.

 

It sounds as though Park might be seeking a four-year deal perhaps in excess of $20 million, but that seems like a reasonable cost and risk for a player who brings big-time power potential to the table. Park has posted OPS figures north of 1.000 the last three years, with tons of swing-and-miss in his game as well as walks to go with the obvious power. Speed doesn’t appear to be a part of his game, and defensively the folks at Baseball America suggested he was a 55 defensive first baseman (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and perhaps a 40 left fielder. We’ll get into this a more in a bit, but it’ll be interesting to see how he’s handled on that side of the game.

 

The other stunning move was the club shipping Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for catcher John Ryan Murphy. Hicks had a breakthrough in 2015, hitting .256/.323/.398 while showing his loud tools far more frequently than he ever did in his first two seasons. For as good as he looked at times, Hicks’ breakout was still mostly confined to one month — a 1.001 OPS in July — and still primarily from the right side of the plate. In other words, the short side of what would typically be a platoon guy. Yankee Stadium might play up his left-handed swing a bit, and the tools are still here for a star — he’s still younger than when Carlos Gomez broke out with the Brewers, for instance — but the Twins saw a need and struck by getting Murphy. Murphy is just 24, and is late to the game as a catcher who has seen his abilities behind the plate get better each season. Various reports suggest he’s adequate defensively right now, with a pretty good arm and framing and perhaps a need to improve his blocking. He should still in time be able to grade out as slightly above average, and he makes enough contact to be a decent hitter. There isn’t a ton of power — more against lefties than righties — but against same-sided pitchers he did manage to show a better ability to draw walks and hit for average. It’s all in small sample sizes anyway, so it’s hard to really get a read on what he’d look like in, say, 400 plate appearances. It’s all for good reason, too, as the Yankees have Brian McCann ahead of him and Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez behind him. As ESPN’s Keith Law said, it was a good old-fashioned deal that worked for both sides. The Yankees took

a chance on potential, while the Twins went the safer route with a stronger floor. Sound familiar?

 

With all these wheels in motion, there are countless storylines that are affected on the existing team. Let’s take a look at each player (possibly) affected, and what it may mean:

 

Kurt Suzuki – Clearly Suzuki is going to see a reduction in his workload, and by the end of the year could be a strict backup if things go perfectly for Murphy. Ultimately, all that really matters is that Suzuki won’t reach the 485 plate appearances needed for his $6 million option in 2017 to vest. It wasn’t going to anyway; with just Fryer and Herrmann behind him Suzuki still got just 479 plate appearances in 2015.

 

Joe Mauer – The sun could be setting on Mauer as a full-time regular, barring a Justin Morneau-style resurrection. With playing time needed for Park and the uncertain futures of a couple other corner-type players, Mauer could see a reduced role in 2016. Then again, if he continues to be one of the best on the team at getting on base, it’s certainly possible he’ll get another 500-plus plate appearances.

 

Miguel Sano – Just how serious are the Twins about Sano playing outfield? That’s the next most important domino to fall, and maybe the club doesn’t even know the answer yet. Could it possibly just be posturing for….

 

Trevor Plouffe – …a possible Plouffe trade? It’s unclear how much public perception really matters in trade talks, but if the Twins are steadfast in their belief that Sano can handle an outfield corner and that they’ll keep Plouffe well into his arbitration years, well, that’s what they want other teams to believe, too. There’ll be no reason at all to dip into the free agent market for an outfielder if the Twins keep that configuration, though they’d have to be awfully sure Sano can handle the outfield, even if it’s just until the team ultimately moves or moves on from Plouffe, who is eligible for free agency after 2017. Plouffe’s evolution as a solid hitter with big power for the position, as well as his continued development defensively has made this a good problem for the Twins.

 

Eddie Rosario – The only real dilemma for Rosario is where he’ll play. He could literally play any of the three outfield positions, with center seeming to be the least talked about and least likely. Still, most people I’ve talked to believe he could handle it, and it’s clear he’s got the arm to play just about anywhere.

 

Byron Buxton – The pervasive belief from national types is that the Hicks trade opens up center field for Buxton, but the Twins most likely won’t make the same mistake twice. That is, handing the job to a raw but talented youngster who is in over his head. He’ll have ample opportunity to take the job in spring training, but if he’s in Rochester in early April, it wouldn’t be a stunner.

 

Max Kepler – Local sources believe that the club is in love with Kepler’s future, and Law said in an exclusive chat on Thursday that he views the German as having star potential. The odds of him cracking the opening day roster seem remote at this juncture — mostly due to how recently all of his development and skills have come together — but there’s a real chance that his coming of age made the Twins more comfortable with a deal including Hicks.

 

Oswaldo Arcia – Arcia’s sort of a forgotten man, though it’s for good reason given his defensive inadequacies and the fact that he hit sub-.200 while in Rochester for the bulk of the 2015 season. He doesn’t appear to be long for the organization one way or the other — keep in mind he’s out of options this spring — but if he’s starting in right field on opening day, it wouldn’t be a complete stunner. Though that probably means Plouffe was traded and Sano is at third base. Arcia could make it as a reserve outfielder, too, with multiple options who can play center already on the roster.

 

Danny Santana – Santana will be on the big league roster one way or the other as he’s also out of options, but there’s an outside chance he too could start on opening day in center field. After an abysmal 2015 season, it’ll be on Santana to prove he has a big league future, regardless of if it’s as a super utility or if he can settle into one position. Chances are if it’s the latter, it’s in another organization.

 

Kennys Vargas – These offseason moves ultimately feel like the kiss of death for Vargas’ big league prospects as a member of the Twins. After a successful cup of coffee in 2014, Vargas had a very Santana-like 2015, and unlike Danny carries absolutely no value in the field. An enterprising team with a hole at DH might give the Twins a ring — Tampa Bay makes a lot of sense here — but unless he can fix holes in his swing and discipline, he’ll be an all-or-nothing pinch hitting option. There’s still potential here, though; he’ll be 25 for nearly the entire 2016 season.

 

Josmil Pinto – Pinto is just one of three ‘catchers’ on the 40-man roster, and it’s unclear if he’s even viewed as a catcher anymore anyway. After returning from concussion issues in late August, Pinto didn’t get back behind the plate with the Red Wings and hit just .217/.288/.283 in 15 games before the Twins sent him home for the winter. If memory serves he too is out of options in 2016, and with no position flexibility and no room at catcher as the roster currently stands, he’s firmly in limbo as far as the Twins are concerned. The bat has flashed potential at times, but there’s really no hope of him playing anywhere but DH or first base if he can’t catch, and he probably doesn’t have enough juice in the stick to do that on a regular basis. He could make the Twins as a bench bat, but it just doesn’t seem too terribly likely right now.

 

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[nytwinsfan]

Lot of interesting stuff here, especially about Kepler. Thanks.

 

Joe Mauer – The sun could be setting on Mauer as a full-time regular, barring a Justin Morneau-style resurrection.

 

You really think so? If he puts up the same numbers as last year I'd be fine with him moving into a platoon-like role, only starting against RHP (or even less).But I'm not sure Terry Ryan and DSP would be ok with that. Hopefully he returns to his 2013 numbers or something approaching that, and it becomes a moot point.The Sano/Plouffe/Arcia/Mauer/Park/Vargas log jam really is something (with Kepler soon to be joining them). You gotta think that at least one of those guys, if not two or three, won't be in Fort Meyers come February. And the only ones I'm sure will be there are Sano and Mauer.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Pinto seema to be the mystery here. Once the Twins are able to cut Zook loose after 2016 does a Murphy starter/Pinot backup tandem at catcher surface as a possibility? It sure has a ton of upside.

 

As far as Mauer, it would be great if they reduced his role in 2016 as you suggest but they are handcuffed by the big salary and loyalty. Molly and TR won't have the stomach to bench him before 2017 at least so let's hope old Joe has that resurrection.

 

Play Buxton and Kepler in the outfield in 2016 as much as possible as early in the season as makes sense.

[Rosterman]

Pinto, Arcia are both bubble guys. You might have to find space for them. You might jettison them. But you don't have to make that decision until spring training (who knows, one or both could get hurt and start the day on the DL (major league one). You do need to keep a few "fringe" guys around in case you do have to make roster moves at the end of spring training (or possibly a mid-winter free agent signee). Nunez might be worth getting for his arbitration in this case, as will Fien. The Twins do have to make a decision on who to keep amongst Darnell, Achter and Tonkin for sure.

 

I see them adding six guys to the 40-man from all the candidates in the minors. 

[sane]

I see them adding six guys to the 40-man from all the candidates in the minors.

I see them adding seven guys if Park is not signed by November 20.

[James Richter]

Probably a coincidence that Vargas finally showed up for Winter Ball on Wednesday. 2-5 with 2 BB and 2 HR in his first 2 games - pretty good start.

[Ncgo4]

I have a different take on Mauer. I look at his $23 million salary as a Twin's fixed cost, sort of like the bill for watering the outfield grass (except a lot more money). They cannot get rid of it by negotiating a buy out with Mauer (why would he?) and they can't very likely trade it away. The variable expense Joe Mauer presents is a roster spot or at the very least a starting line up spot.

 

if you accept this, then the only question becomes, what gets the most bang into the line up? And the question then is what does it take to move a .270 non power hitting, modestly adequate fielder out of the line up? First, Sano is not going to the outfield. The Twins are not crazy enough to take a very promising 1/2 season rookie just learning to hit MLB pitching and put him into a position where he also must learn a new position. Also if they spend $5 million to $8 million per year on Mr. Park they are not going to keep him out of the line up either.

 

I think the real variables are Buxton and Keppler. If they both do well in spring training and go to Rochester and hit .320, they will be called up and no position us left for Mauer, except to pinch hit. A very good dilemma for the Twins to have. This is true even if Plouffe is traded and Sano becomes a fixture at third base.

[HitInAPinch]

"Hicks trade opens up center field for Buxton".  I keep reading this everywhere.  Utter twaddle says I.  He's got a lot to learn at the plate.  Bring him up now?  Pray for Gary Pettis-type numbers.  Hicks was traded for a need at catcher.  Or maybe to open up CF for D. Santana?   LOL!

 

Arcia, Vargas and Pinto on the bench:  Altogether or separately, those aren't good bench players.  Solid defense and good-eye, contact hitters they ain't.

 

Plouffe won't be traded, Sano will be in RF, Rosario will be in LF and will hit even better than last year, Mauer will be the starter at 1st. 

[Lonestar]

No MLB team will give Pinto a 25-man roster spot.  Sign him to a MiLB contract (with premium, with or without NRI) and let's see what we have.

 

Vargas has an option.

 

Santana in CF and Sano in RF sounds icky.  And it means you have to sign another OF capable of playing CF.  Shane Robinson, anyone.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Lonestar

[Darius]

 

Joe Mauer – The sun could be setting on Mauer as a full-time regular, barring a Justin Morneau-style resurrection. With playing time needed for Park and the uncertain futures of a couple other corner-type players, Mauer could see a reduced role in 2016. Then again, if he continues to be one of the best on the team at getting on base, it’s certainly possible he’ll get another 500-plus plate appearances.

 

This is how it should be.  Sentimentality, shampoo commercials, and contracts be damned.  It couldn't be any more obvious that this guy can't handle a full season workload, and hasn't been able to for some time now.  Will it actually be the case?  Not a chance.  There are still too many 20-something women in love with him, and too many 20-something million dollars per year left on his contract.  When he strikes out that many times, and he barely breaks the league avg. BA, alarm bells should go off.  But, they'll likely ride that $23M/yr horse into the ground before the All-Star break.  Since he wont see the bench for any significant amount of time, I'm hoping these moves at least mean he DHs much more.

 

Byron Buxton – The pervasive belief from national types is that the Hicks trade opens up center field for Buxton, but the Twins most likely won’t make the same mistake twice. That is, handing the job to a raw but talented youngster who is in over his head. He’ll have ample opportunity to take the job in spring training, but if he’s in Rochester in early April, it wouldn’t be a stunner.

 

I keep hearing this, and it doesn't make sense.  The trade was made to free up the Center Field spot for Buxton, but he's not ready to play Center Field for the Twins.  Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I'd much rather have Hicks while the Twins iron out Buxton's approach at the plate and service time issues (or, lets try the Danny Santana experiment for the fourth time since he's been a relevant player in '14....brilliant!).

 

You're forgetting the paramount reason why Kepler will see limited time with the Twins this year:  Service time.  He's better than Danny Santana today.  Heck, he was better than Santana last June.  But, they'll keep him down there too long, even if costs the team wins (Sano/Berrios circa '15).  

 

People try to tell me this isn't the case.  OK, maybe not with every player.  But, when they have someone that they can project to be a real high-impact player, they milk that clock for everything its worth (not saying its the right or wrong approach, but its still happening, as much as some want to talk themselves out of it with a few college arms or mid-tier prospects).  Buxton (aside from college arms/marginal guys) was an exception (sort of...the recurring theme of June applies) for one reason only:  ticket sales.  His hype had reached a level that people would line up to see his first game in the majors.  

 

Are you starting to see a common thread, here?  Rarely in this organization are decisions made to make the team better now.  They are made to play contracts, defer service time, and milk dollars and cents.  The Pohlads, Ryan, and their media mouthpieces can give that all of the lip service they want.  I'll believe it when I see it.  

 

Its kind of like Sasquatch, for me.  There are an army of believers who swear by it, because they've heard about it from someone else, or caught a glimpse out of the corner of their eye when they were really sleepy.  For me to be certain, I need to see a body.  At this point, the Twins putting winning first, and being serious about making a run, is still just a rumor floating around the countryside.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Darius

[Otto von Ballpark]

No MLB team will give Pinto a 25-man roster spot. Sign him to a MiLB contract (with premium, with or without NRI) and let's see what we have.

 

Teams wouldn't have to give Pinto a 25-man spot yet, not until April. He won't clear waivers right now, maybe in March/April depending how his winter/spring goes.

[roger]

I am making a prediction regarding Mauer.  Should his numbers/performance deteriorate further in 2016, I expect he will approach the Twins to negotiate a settlement for the remaining two years on his contract and retire.  What the settlement looks like would be interesting.

 

I don't understand what has happened to his hitting, but I expect he is more disappointed with his performance than all of us.  He may opt to retire rather than continue with that disappointment.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I agree with Roger, although of course we all hope for that Morneau-like resurgance.

 

As far as Mauer

"only starting against RHP (or even less)"

Mauer last year hit slightly better against LHP than RHP. The RHB vs LHP or LHB vs RHP is not always useful. You have to consider the player.

[USAFChief]

For his career, Mauer has an OPS 150 pts higher vs RH pitching.

 

Platoon splits are real, or will be real eventually, for virtually every hitter in MLB history.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wouldn't be shocked if Mauer ends up in RF at some point, especially if Park shows like he can hit ML pitching this spring. 

 

That said, I think both Arcia and Pinto make the roster, if for no other reason than to improve what was the league's worst bench.  Both of shown they can hit, though both had a pretty bad 2015 (which may be due to injury since both dealt with those).  Once someone invariably hits the 15 day DL, these guys can step in for another chance to shine.

[ashbury]

I wouldn't be shocked if Mauer ends up in RF at some point, especially if Park shows like he can hit ML pitching this spring.

Park is 3 years younger than Mauer and several pounds lighter in weight. I seem to recall Park has played a little third base, which suggests he's not a noodle arm. And I know from watching him on the basepaths that Mauer is slow. So I'd try Park out there sooner than I'd try Mauer.

[ND-Fan]

I think people are writing off Mauer way too quick he's still getting on base still leads the Twins of its regulars this past year and he still has ops in 700 hundreds. This down from his peak but the Twins need to get somebody on if Sano, Plouffe, and are going to be of value. Also he's still better firstbaseman than Sano, Vargas, and probably Park in fielding playing the position. The question is where do you bat him in the order 3 may be wrong position but you end of with lower on base percentages from some of other players or takes away from where they are batting in the order. I also think his numbers are still going improve from this year if he can remain healthy and put some more distance between his concussion. Sayno to be effective needs person ahead of him getting on base and he also needs Plouffe behind him give him some protection so he see's some pitches he can hit. I think thats why they are looking at Park also need another big bat so teams can't pitch around the Twins two home run hitters. I think the Twins were so hoping that Buxton would have shown that he could get on base when he was up. He was just striking out to much and Twins were hoping same thing from Santanna this past year but all the changes in position and expectations i think just derailed him last year. The problem is he's out options and so he can't refine his skill at short now with out the Twins loosing him. I just don't believe they are going to trade Plouffe until somebody else in their line up can show they can hit for power and drive in runs. The Twins loss of Hunter means they already have lost 25 home runs and 75 RBI  out the line up. Taking Plouffe out line up means loosing another 25 home runs and 80 RBI bat out the line up. The players they are talking about replacing them with so far on prooven or haven't hit like that yet in the majors. 

[jsteve96]

 

No MLB team will give Pinto a 25-man roster spot.  Sign him to a MiLB contract (with premium, with or without NRI) and let's see what we have.

 

Vargas has an option.

 

Santana in CF and Sano in RF sounds icky.  And it means you have to sign another OF capable of playing CF.  Shane Robinson, anyone.

lol, man Pinto is a good hitter. OPS is good in the games he's played and he can be a back up catcher, he'd be claimed in an instant

[HitInAPinch]

 

I am making a prediction regarding Mauer.  Should his numbers/performance deteriorate further in 2016, I expect he will approach the Twins to negotiate a settlement for the remaining two years on his contract and retire.  What the settlement looks like would be interesting.

 

I don't understand what has happened to his hitting, but I expect he is more disappointed with his performance than all of us.  He may opt to retire rather than continue with that disappointment.

$23M  per year.  No way, no how.  

[mikelink45]

We have Mauer now and will have him until the end of his contract.  We can hope he gets better, but the timeline on that hope is getting mighty long and thin.  He is a good player and we need to look past $23 as a fan and hope the Twins can do the same.  He will be on the Twins, but should be a part time player - not judged by money but by performance.  

For a smart player his inability to switch to a different strike zone as quoted in various posts is baffling.  It is stubbornness more than talent.  However, as a first baseman, his power is not offset by average, his OBP is not so high that he gives us a leadoff and certainly not a middle of the order batter which means he should be 6 or below in the order, maybe even 9 which some believe is the second leadoff position after the first inning.  He is not a Keith Hernandez fielder so he is not such an asset that we cannot adjust to others at the bag.   If we consider him a part time starter - part time bench, we strengthen the bench and reduce the angst.

 

Buxton has a history of a short struggle at each level before figuring it out.  I think it is time for the Willie Mays treatment - put him out, stay with him, and bank on his ability fo pull him through.  We desperately need his fielding.   I would love Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler in the OF.  

 

But I think the Twins need to have one or two more trades before we really examine the roster because right now, the overall content makes no sense. 

[sploorp]

Santana in CF and Sano in RF sounds icky.  And it means you have to sign another OF capable of playing CF.  Shane Robinson, anyone.

 

 

[sploorp]

 

I am making a prediction regarding Mauer.  Should his numbers/performance deteriorate further in 2016, I expect he will approach the Twins to negotiate a settlement for the remaining two years on his contract and retire.  What the settlement looks like would be interesting.

 

I don't understand what has happened to his hitting, but I expect he is more disappointed with his performance than all of us.  He may opt to retire rather than continue with that disappointment.

He's guaranteed that money no matter what happens.  By the end of this deal, Mauer will be past his prime.  Most of players would look at a deal like Mauer's as nearly all of the money they will ever make as a baseball player.  There is just no way any player walks away or renegotiates a retirement.

[hybridbear]

I don't understand why the Twins would ask Sano to play OF & learn a new position instead of asking Plouffe to learn to play OF...

[ashbury]

I don't understand why the Twins would ask Sano to play OF & learn a new position instead of asking Plouffe to learn to play OF...

Plouffe is very slow afoot and would be a statue in the outfield. Sano is for the present still blessed with decent speed.

[Blackjack]

 

I am making a prediction regarding Mauer.  Should his numbers/performance deteriorate further in 2016, I expect he will approach the Twins to negotiate a settlement for the remaining two years on his contract and retire.  What the settlement looks like would be interesting.

 

I don't understand what has happened to his hitting, but I expect he is more disappointed with his performance than all of us.  He may opt to retire rather than continue with that disappointment.

 

Yeah he's made enough money that he could afford to walk away but there is more to playing than just money. Every player wants to say they won a championship and Mauer can see the team improving by leaps and bounds, if he sticks with it he may still have a shot at a ring.  He'll be here until the end of his contract.

 

People also bitch and moan about Mauer batting high in the batting order but until the Twins acquire and/or develop more players that are overall better batters than Mauer, he won't be batting 7th anytime soon. Even a declining ex-batting champ is better than most of the players in the Twins lineup.

[Darius]

 

I am making a prediction regarding Mauer.  Should his numbers/performance deteriorate further in 2016, I expect he will approach the Twins to negotiate a settlement for the remaining two years on his contract and retire.  What the settlement looks like would be interesting.

 

I don't understand what has happened to his hitting, but I expect he is more disappointed with his performance than all of us.  He may opt to retire rather than continue with that disappointment.

 

I don't care how rich you already are....nobody is walking away from $50M.  I think its more likely that he plays out his contract and signs another, cheaper, deal with the Twins, than anything.  

 

My guess: he's not going anywhere until he catches Puckett as the Twins all-time hits leader (Senators notwithstanding) at 2300.  He needs about 600 hits, which will probably take 4-5 more years, assuming he functions like he did last year. 

[Darius]

 

Santana in CF and Sano in RF sounds icky.  And it means you have to sign another OF capable of playing CF.  Shane Robinson, anyone.

 

I agree.  I think that would be a bad personnel decision (neither of these guys should be OFers, especially Sano).  

 

But, this FO (the Terry Ryan Country Club) has been making bad personnel decisions since 1994, eventally getting bailed by a stacked farm system in the early 2000s (despite his better efforts to prevent that by taking Travis Lee - who he never even signed, BJ Garbe, Ryan Mills, and Adam Johnson with top 5 picks from '96-'00), which probably saved his career in the knick of time.  Even in those good years, he would never make the requisite moves to get them over the hump (the "hump" was typically the first round of the playoffs/the yankees).

 

So, yeah, it'll probably happen that way.  Think of the worst possibly starting 9 you could possibly assemble from the current 40 man roster, and that will probably be fielded on opening day, though the first month of the season.  Then, they'll miss the playoffs by 2-3 games.