Weiters Off the Table

[kab21]

I don't think this has much to do with the FA catching market.  I think this is a bet that a fully recovered 30 yr old Wieters will get a contract possibly double what was available this year.  Boras has been wrong before but not often.

[h2oface]

On the other hand, I think it could indicate that Weiters could have been signed relatively easily, and without giving up Hicks. And it would have been a definite starting catcher. I think it shows that Ryan missed or didn't even go after the catcher the Twins should have gotten, and could have had, for a controversial trade that is, again, yet to be determined, and the sand in the glass once again has settled into the bottom without the splash that could have been.

 

I certainly don't think that a free agent contract at an older age, and especially for a catcher, will ever look more lucrative. A 30 year old catcher is one more year closer to not continuing to be a catcher. Possibly double? I think the chance of him losing half the value of what he could have gotten this year is just as good a bet. Time will tell. All in all, it probably won't change much, except for if it happens next year, he would get one less year on a contract that he could have signed this year.

[DaveW]

It stands to reason that he took the QO because he couldn't get a 3 year or longer deal on the open market. I would have prob been cool with a 3 year deal for Wieters, but it is what it is.

 

Norris, Lucroy, Plawecki etc were and all still available.

 

[Kwak]

Too bad, the Twins could have another aging, declining, veteran catcher to a long-term expensive contract.

[kab21]

 

On the other hand, I think it could indicate that Weiters could have been signed relatively easily, and without giving up Hicks. And it would have been a definite starting catcher. I think it shows that Ryan missed or didn't even go after the catcher the Twins should have gotten, and could have had, for a controversial trade that is, again, yet to be determined, and the sand in the glass once again has settled into the bottom without the splash that could have been.

 

I certainly don't think that a free agent contract at an older age, and especially for a catcher, will ever look more lucrative. A 30 year old catcher is one more year closer to not continuing to be a catcher. Possibly double? I think the chance of him losing half the value of what he could have gotten this year is just as good a bet. Time will tell. All in all, it probably won't change much, except for if it happens next year, he would get one less year on a contract that he could have signed this year.

Go back and read the arguments against Wieters.  They are almost entirely based on the uncertainty that he is healthy and didn't catch many back to back games.  If he catches 120+ games this year and hits reasonably well then he is likely to make a lot more next season.

 

The fact is that if he tested the open market then Boras would have been struggling to do better than 3/45 or 4/64 for him.  If he does the above then 5/100 is certainly possible next offseason (3M/yr better than McCann).

[DaveW]

Wieters would need to catch 130 games and hit about 30 HR's before someone is going to give him 5 years and 100 million.

 

Lifetime OPS+ of 100. Last 3 years OPS+ of 98.

 

He will never sniff a 100 million deal, and wouldn't get more than McCann. I imagine if he could have gotten 3/45 this off-season he would have taken it.

[h2oface]

 

 

The fact is that if he tested the open market then Boras would have been struggling to do better than 3/45 or 4/64 for him.  If he does the above then 5/100 is certainly possible next offseason (3M/yr better than McCann).

 

Yup, I just have a different opinion, no matter how many times I read the same articles and other folk's opinions. The McCann deal is a great example of what not to do when signing a catcher, in my opinion. Thanks for pointing that out to me, and I mean that sincerely.

[kab21]

 

Yup, I just have a different opinion, no matter how many times I read the same articles and other folk's opinions. The McCann deal is a great example of what not to do when signing a catcher, in my opinion. Thanks for pointing that out to me, and I mean that sincerely.

I completely agree that teams shouldn't but what teams shouldn't do and what teams actually do are two entirely different things.

[kab21]

 

 

Wieters would need to catch 130 games and hit about 30 HR's before someone is going to give him 5 years and 100 million.

 

Lifetime OPS+ of 100. Last 3 years OPS+ of 98.

 

He will never sniff a 100 million deal, and wouldn't get more than McCann. I imagine if he could have gotten 3/45 this off-season he would have taken it.

Inflation Dave.  Inflation.  Crazy money is coming into baseball.  An average hitter that is playing catcher will get PAID.

[mudcat14]

I don't think he'll ever get a deal with an annual salary exceeding the $15+mil his QO will bring in 2016.  Even a stellar year this upcoming season, and the very best he will do in Free Agency next winter is 3-4 years at about $12mil per.  I doubt the market would give him that this year, with questions about his health and durability.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think he'll ever get a deal with an annual salary exceeding the $15+mil his QO will bring in 2016. Even a stellar year this upcoming season, and the very best he will do in Free Agency next winter is 3-4 years at about $12mil per. I doubt the market would give him that this year, with questions about his health and durability.

I thought he'd get Nolasco money. Four years, $50-ish million.

 

I'm somewhat shocked he took the QO. I think this is a sign he wasn't interested in a long term deal unless the offer was outrageous. He's willing to bet on himself and try again next offseason.

[h2oface]

I like that he bets on himself. I wish more players would. Expensive short contracts and perform. I like it. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I like that he bets on himself. I wish more players would. Expensive short contracts and perform. I like it.

Yeah, it's a good sign and I doubt the Orioles are fretting over the $16m they now owe him.

[mnfireman]

Wieters  Steamer (top) & Baseball-Reference (bottom) 2016 projections. If he is betting on himself, I am hoping he performs better than this. They both have him projected for about 370 plate appearances.

 

AVG OBP SLG OPS

.244 .302 .410 .712

.256 .308 .428 .736

[James Richter]

Wieters is probably hoping to follow the Russell Martin model, where he rebuilt value in Pittsburgh on a short-term deal, then got $82M for his age 32-36 seasons. But Martin had $17M spread over 2 years with the Pirates, and Wieters can get almost as much in one year with the QO.

[sane]

 

On the other hand, I think it could indicate that Weiters could have been signed relatively easily, and without giving up Hicks. And it would have been a definite starting catcher. I think it shows that Ryan missed or didn't even go after the catcher the Twins should have gotten,

How definite is a "definite starting catcher" who was on the DL from May, 2014 until June, 2015?

 

[Dantes929]

Ok,  here's one and I am sure to be mocked like I was in the past.    With this latest contract the guy will have made about 40 mil so far in his career not including any endorsements.    Yes, he may get injured  but is more likely to make a lot more in the future.  Maybe he likes Baltimore, likes where his family is, likes his team, wants to stay where he has played his entire major league career and doesn't want to chase every dollar he can.     If I had 17 million in the bank (quick check of net worth)  with 15 mil more guaranteed  I am pretty sure money would no longer be the deciding factor in anything I would do.

[sane]

 

Ok,  here's one and I am sure to be mocked like I was in the past.    With this latest contract the guy will have made about 40 mil so far in his career not including any endorsements.    Yes, he may get injured  but is more likely to make a lot more in the future.  Maybe he likes Baltimore, likes where his family is, likes his team, wants to stay where he has played his entire major league career and doesn't want to chase every dollar he can.     If I had 17 million in the bank (quick check of net worth)  with 15 mil more guaranteed  I am pretty sure money would no longer be the deciding factor in anything I would do.

Except for the part which says "Maybe he likes Baltimore", I believe every other word in your post!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wieters Steamer (top) & Baseball-Reference (bottom) 2016 projections. If he is betting on himself, I am hoping he performs better than this. They both have him projected for about 370 plate appearances.

 

AVG OBP SLG OPS

.244 .302 .410 .712

.256 .308 .428 .736

Another example of why projections are broken. I'm sure those Wieters projections are accounting for his partial seasons due to TJ surgery.

 

The OPS may be right but those 370 PAs are probably wrong. Any guy can get injured but Wieters is as likely to play a full season as any other 30 year old catcher.

 

Wieters has good reason to bet on himself. He's a formerly injured player who appears to have recovered and shouldn't be any bigger an injury risk than any other catcher his age.

[dgwills]

I was surprised they even gave him the qualifying offer. They have Caleb Joseph who's better defensively, cheaper, and younger. He doesn't have as good of a bat, but it's not that big of a difference. There's no way they wanted Weiters to accept that offer. I'm glad he did. That's what the Orioles get for being dicks.

[USAFChief]

I was surprised they even gave him the qualifying offer. They have Caleb Joseph who's better defensively, cheaper, and younger. He doesn't have as good of a bat, but it's not that big of a difference. There's no way they wanted Weiters to accept that offer. I'm glad he did. That's what the Orioles get for being dicks.

Caleb Joseph will be 30 next year. He can't hit.

 

He is the reason Baltimore gave Wieters the QO.

 

No team wants to enter a season with Caleb Joseph as option A.

[dgwills]

 

Caleb Joseph will be 30 next year. He can't hit.

He is the reason Baltimore gave Wieters the QO.

No team wants to enter a season with Caleb Joseph as option A.

I really didn't know he was that old. His ops+ last year was 87. 100 for Wieters. If you include defense though Joseph had 2.2 WAR vs .8 WAR for Weiters. I don't think that it's worth the 15 million dollar difference. Only a 1 year commitment though. I can see why they did it now, but I still wouldn't of.

[h2oface]

 

How definite is a "definite starting catcher" who was on the DL from May, 2014 until June, 2015?

 

oh.... I don't know..... how definite is it that I will wake up tomorrow morning? I get your point though. I will be careful when I use definite next time.