Article: Did The Twins Give Up On Hicks Too Soon?

[sane]

How can anyone say with certainty that Buxton won't have a great spring and jump into the CF spot?

Nobody can predict the future with certainty...If he could, he would already be too wealthy to care about such trivial bleep.

[ChrisKnutson]

Let's be realistic the Twins aren't gonna get free agent Yoenis Cespedes, but yet there is still a few free agents that are better than or just as good as Aaron Hicks was (and less frustrating too). Three that I'd like to see the Twins go after for a RF/CF starting position would be Austin Jackson, Chris B. Young, or Will Venable. First of all, all of them are a billion times better with the glove in the outfield than Miguel Sano will ever be, also all are just as good as Rosario with it too, minus the arm but I could be mistaken.

 

Will Venable spent most of his career with the Padres in a park that kills homeruns yet he managed to have a 20-20 season in 2013. In 2015 he started his season off with a solid .258 BA /6 HR/11SB for the Friars until heading to the Rangers where he got minimal playing time and struggled.

 

Chris B. Young is a former Rookie of the year Candidate and All Star who seem destined to be the D-Backs franchise player. And he was that good as he had speed, power, great defense, but if he did have a flaw it was striking out, low batting average, and a low on base percentage. However it seems he's gotten better with age even though as part time player.

 

Austin Jackson, mostly known as the young talented center fielder for the Tigers who was runner up for Rookie of the Year in 2010, is still young and talented, at 28 years old I feel he still has some of his best years ahead of him, this year he was even apart of the Cubs run in the playoffs.

[jimmer]

 

Let's be realistic the Twins aren't gonna get free agent Yoenis Cespedes, but yet there is still a few free agents that are better than or just as good as Aaron Hicks was (and less frustrating too). Three that I'd like to see the Twins go after for a RF/CF starting position would be Austin Jackson, Chris B. Young, or Will Venable. First of all, all of them are a billion times better with the glove in the outfield than Miguel Sano will ever be, also all are just as good as Rosario with it too, minus the arm but I could be mistaken.

Will Venable spent most of his career with the Padres in a park that kills homeruns yet he managed to have a 20-20 season in 2013. In 2015 he started his season off with a solid .258 BA /6 HR/11SB for the Friars until heading to the Rangers where he got minimal playing time and struggled.

Chris B. Young is a former Rookie of the year Candidate and All Star who seem destined to be the D-Backs franchise player. And he was that good as he had speed, power, great defense, but if he did have a flaw it was striking out, low batting average, and a low on base percentage. However it seems he's gotten better with age even though as part time player.

Austin Jackson, mostly known as the young talented center fielder for the Tigers who was runner up for Rookie of the Year in 2010, is still young and talented, at 28 years old I feel he still has some of his best years ahead of him, this year he was even apart of the Cubs run in the playoffs.

You've just named three guys that are right up Ryan's alley to go after. 

[ChrisKnutson]

You've just named three guys that are right up Ryan's alley to go after.

 

Is that a good thing? I mean Chris Young isn't what he used to be but he's a solid veteran that at best could possibly have a season like Torii did (22 HR/81RBI/.240 BA except with better defense. And Austin Jackson to me seems primed to have a really good season something similar to his first few seasons with the Tigers.

 

[jimmer]

 

Is that a good thing? I mean Chris Young isn't what he used to be but he's a solid veteran that at best could possibly have a season like Torii did (22 HR/81RBI/.240 BA except with better defense. And Austin Jackson to me seems primed to have a really good season something similar to his first few seasons with the Tigers.

Please don't take offense.  It's not meant that way.

 

If we like low cost/risk with low-medium reward type signings when we are supposedly shooting for a playoff spot and playoff success, then these three are the type you go after.  And these are always the type of guys Ryan signings.  It's safe.  If it doesn't work out, it didn't cost much and expectations were low anyway.  If it does he looks like a genius.  Win-Win.  At this point, I think bold is called for.  

 

I do like that you have faith in Jackson though. I hope you are right.  I like him.

Edited November 14, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm glad they didn't tap into the farm, as any competent catcher is going to cost Kepler or Berrios.

 

 

With the Benoit and Kimbrel trades, it certainly seems like San Diego is moving toward the sell mode that many have predicted.

[Kwak]

 

Let's be realistic the Twins aren't gonna get free agent Yoenis Cespedes, but yet there is still a few free agents that are better than or just as good as Aaron Hicks was (and less frustrating too). Three that I'd like to see the Twins go after for a RF/CF starting position would be Austin Jackson, Chris B. Young, or Will Venable. First of all, all of them are a billion times better with the glove in the outfield than Miguel Sano will ever be, also all are just as good as Rosario with it too, minus the arm but I could be mistaken.

Will Venable spent most of his career with the Padres in a park that kills homeruns yet he managed to have a 20-20 season in 2013. In 2015 he started his season off with a solid .258 BA /6 HR/11SB for the Friars until heading to the Rangers where he got minimal playing time and struggled.

Chris B. Young is a former Rookie of the year Candidate and All Star who seem destined to be the D-Backs franchise player. And he was that good as he had speed, power, great defense, but if he did have a flaw it was striking out, low batting average, and a low on base percentage. However it seems he's gotten better with age even though as part time player.

Austin Jackson, mostly known as the young talented center fielder for the Tigers who was runner up for Rookie of the Year in 2010, is still young and talented, at 28 years old I feel he still has some of his best years ahead of him, this year he was even apart of the Cubs run in the playoffs.

Why on earth acquire players who aren't/won't project better than the top OF prospects in the Twins system?  It makes far more sense to play the prospects, take lumps for this season (maybe?), and get serious in 2017.  Mediocre players aren't what this team needs so it doesn't lose 90--it needs top quality players so it can consistently win 90+ games.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Kwak

[jokin]

 

true, but main point is we're overvaluing Hicks, after a .597 and .615 OPS in 2013 and 2014.  Then in 2015, he had the same numbers except for one very small sample in the month of July.  Other than that month he's a medicore to bad hitter.  So while John Ryan Murphy may not be much, it says something that the Yankees called him up as a 22 year old and he put up respectable numbers in 2015 as a backup catcher both offensively and defensively.  I'm not saying it's a slam dunk but I think some need to step back and take a realistic look at Hicks.  

 

Fair points that I don't disagree with. As I've said about Hicks, it's all on the come- flawed players ofttimes fix their flaws, especially if the underlying talent is there. He clearly has the tools and athleticism of a first round draft pick (he's one of only a very small handful of MLB OFers who have thrown 100 MPH relays- the Twins had another in Carlos Gomez). In 2015, Hicks also took some big steps forward in a level he basically skipped/failed at previously- AAA. I don't think anyone can deny that Hicks looked like a different player in 2015, both at the plate and in the field. 

 

If this really was the best the market had to offer for Hicks alone, I just think it would have been a lot smarter to consider putting Hicks in a package together for one of the young studs who are blocked at the major league level, like Sanchez at NY, like McGuire at Pitt, like Contreras with the Cubs. Or take a deeper look at the Plouffe option.  

 

In the meantime, the Twins could have seen if Hicks could continue to build on that value and potential... while Buxton and Kepler spent the opening months in Rochester to put on the finishing touches. As of right now, the opening day OF is in a major state of uncertainty and disarray.  The Twins gambled down this path over the last 3 seasons, I'm surprised they are willing to expose themselves again in this way so cavalierly.

[jokin]

 

How can anyone say with certainty that Buxton won't have a great spring and jump into the CF spot?

 

Just because some pundit or front office suit thinks that doesn't make it so.

 

The Twins have been down the assumption path before and gotten burned.  Spring Training has historically been a very poor predictor for readiness levels (good or bad).

[Vanimal46]

Why on earth acquire players who aren't/won't project better than the top OF prospects in the Twins system?  It makes far more sense to play the prospects, take lumps for this season (maybe?), and get serious in 2017.  Mediocre players aren't what this team needs so it doesn't lose 90--it needs top quality players so it can consistently win 90+ games.

All of those players could be had for a 1 year deal to rebuild their value. Once Buxton and Kepler are ready, they'll be on the team. I don't see the harm in targeting one of those guys to play until our crop is ready, and they take a back seat as the 4th OF

[DaveW]

Did you think we were going to make serious bids for Weiters who was almost the only FA catcher available?

Every team short a starting catcher would have been at that auction.

The difference between wieters and cespedes or heyward is like 3-4 more years and about 80 million dollars.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Why on earth acquire players who aren't/won't project better than the top OF prospects in the Twins system?  It makes far more sense to play the prospects, take lumps for this season (maybe?), and get serious in 2017.  Mediocre players aren't what this team needs so it doesn't lose 90--it needs top quality players so it can consistently win 90+ games.

 

I don't think the prospects will play that well to start.  One of those guys is a good fit in that they can give Buxton/Kepler a bit of extra time to develop in AAA and then get flipped for some marginal help at the deadline to make room for them.  You'll have a better result in 2016 doing that.  I don't think it's a bad idea at all if any of those guys would be up for a 1 year deal (just to caveat, I haven't at all researched whether they would be willing to do a 1 year deal.  I would be going after an OF that was).

[diehardtwinsfan]

Also, as much as I hope Hicks succeeds, can you imagine how the NY media would handle him if he gave up switch hitting like he did with us in 2014?  I know he's going to have protection in that lineup, but I'm not sure he's going to do well in that pressure cooker that is NY.  Perhaps I'm wrong (and I hope I am), but it seems like there's a lot of angst about what will most likely be nothing.

[shs_59]

Assuming we get Park, i see the rest of the-off-season going as follows:

 

Plouffe Gets dealt to the Angels to Replace, FA David Freese at 3B

 

For RP Cam Bedorsian and a C+ prospect.

 

And we sign FA OF'er Gerardo Parra for 3 yrs and $30mm

 

opening day lineup:

 

Dozier- RH/2B

**Parra-  SW/CF/RF**

Mauer- LH/1B

Sano - RH/3B

Park -  RH/DH

Rosario- LH/LF

*Kepler/ Buxton  CF/RF**

Murphy - RH/C

Escobar- SW/SS

 

(if you haven't noticed thats a lineup that might set the Strikeouts RECORD , especially if Oswaldo gets any regular playing time)

 

 

Key Reserves:

 

UTL Eduardo Nunez, C Kurt Suzuki , SS/CF Danny Santana

 

I see one of Buxton or Kepler starting year with big club and the other in AAA untill June or so.... (unless Arcia mashes and keeps them both in AAA; NOT likely)

By signing G. Parra the Twins have the luxury of playing him in which ever spot isnt taken by the prospect.

 

[Kwak]

 

I don't think the prospects will play that well to start.  One of those guys is a good fit in that they can give Buxton/Kepler a bit of extra time to develop in AAA and then get flipped for some marginal help at the deadline to make room for them.  You'll have a better result in 2016 doing that.  I don't think it's a bad idea at all if any of those guys would be up for a 1 year deal (just to caveat, I haven't at all researched whether they would be willing to do a 1 year deal.  I would be going after an OF that was).

Which was implied in my post.  There are (at least) two problems with this philosophy:  signing  a mediocre veteran delays the required learning curve of the "prospect"--he will have to overcome the transition to the majors anyway;  and if the "veteran" is half-decent--he gets extended, often for multi-years.  But the veteran is still only mediocre and the prospects are stacking-up  in the minors.  If the "prospects" are always "not quite ready", maybe part of the fault is in the management in charge of the system--and that's where the change is required.  Buying the safety blanket is a CYA device,  ownership has to remove the training wheels and demand results.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Which was implied in my post.  There are (at least) two problems with this philosophy:  signing  a mediocre veteran delays the required learning curve of the "prospect"--he will have to overcome the transition to the majors anyway;  and if the "veteran" is half-decent--he gets extended, often for multi-years.  But the veteran is still only mediocre and the prospects are stacking-up  in the minors.  If the "prospects" are always "not quite ready", maybe part of the fault is in the management in charge of the system--and that's where the change is required.  Buying the safety blanket is a CYA device,  ownership has to remove the training wheels and demand results.

 

I would definitely target a higher ceiling type vet on a make good deal in that scenario, but I do disagree with the premise that this will necessarily delay the learning curve.  Kepler has no AAA experience, Buxton has a few at bats there.  Buxton was clearly not ready for ML and could learn some things that would allow him to do better in MLB once he's there.  I really don't buy the idea that letting Hicks spend 2013 in AAA would have necessarily pushed back his MLB results.  I think it would have likely led to a much better 2014 (and probably 2015) in the majors had he spent 2013 in AAA.  He wasn't ready. 

 

I also think that said high ceiling vet (unless he's doing phenominally well) would be flipped at the deadline to make room for whatever AAA OFer that has earned the job.