Article: Did The Twins Give Up On Hicks Too Soon?

[Thegrin]

Good riddance to Hicks. I doubt if he will ever fulfill his "promise".  I predict he will self destruct sooner rather than later.  

 

As for Murphy, we will see what we have once he starts playing for us.  Twins fans are spoiled by so many years of outstanding catchers (AJ & Joe).  Lets hope that Murphy can be an adequate placeholder until Turner or  Garver are ready to take over. 

[Shane Wahl]

 

That's the crux of it , isn't it. This wasn't exactly a mirror image trade of potentiality. In addition, it clearly lowers the Twins net talent level on the opening day roster.

 

Yes, this is quite clearly *subtraction* isn't it?

[Shane Wahl]

 

I don't understand this "log jam" in the outfield, business.  Its just not the case, IMO.  The way i see it as it currently stands:  

 

Miguel Sano isn't an outfielder, and probably shouldn't be (he'll just get moved again in a year or two, why not just develop him at his permanent spot?).  I know its not terribly difficult, but he hasn't stepped foot on outfield grass in his life (warning: hyperbole), and RF in TF is one of the trickier to play with that overhang.  I've seen first hand that he has a great arm, but is it accurate from 300 ft?  A lot of questions there.

 

It doesn't sound like Buxton is going to start the year with the big club.  Of course, he may never figure out major league pitching and be a mendoza line guy with no power (which I don't think will be the case, but its a contingency).  I'd prefer not to anoint him the 15 year starter at CF quite yet, at least until he shows me something more at the MLB level. 

 

Even if Kepler were ready now, I don't see the Twins bringing him up before rosters expand, let alone before they can clear a service time hurdle.  

 

Arcia shouldn't be counted on for anything at this point, and his defense approaches Willingham status.  He can't hit breaking balls.  I doubt he'll even be with the organization in '17.

 

You're left with Rosario, who has less than 500 ABs in the majors, and Danny Santana, who is always one mistake away from mentally unraveling (it seems) into an 0-50 slump and error spree.  Those are your only competent defensive outfielders to start the season.  Thats just asking for trouble, especially in Target Field.

 

Even if they bring in a free agent to start the year in center (who will more than likely be a bargain bin, below replacement level player, if history tells us anything), they're still short on depth, in my estimation.  

 

Of course, this is all operates under the assumption that Park can hit major league pitching, which is a total unknown at this point, and probably a coin flip.  If it comes up tails, Sano is still the full time DH and we're signing another Eric Komatsu.

 

God, I love you for this post.

[wsnydes]

 

This stuff about being a "corner OF" is way the hell overblown. If other sluggers are present, and you actually have a big-time offensive CF, one doesn't need to worry about slugging coming from the corner OF. I straight up do not understand. Rosario isn't going to be a slugging corner OF either. And neither is Kepler. All of them are likely to be solid all-around players who are above average offensively and good to excellent defensively.

 

This "corner OF type" stuff just blows my mind.

I feel this way anytime a position is referenced in regards to offense.  None of that matters if other positions fill the role.

[jokin]

 

It would be nice to have at least three. Right now I'm not sure the Twins have even that many.

 

So true.  Why don't people actually look at the potential names likely to be on the opening day roster filling OF spots? And no proven CF. The options there are Rosario and Santana and/or the semi-inevitable bargain bin veteran signee. And then you have Arcia and perhaps Sano, who's never played there. You were right Chief, as of this moment, we know of only one for-sure real live actual OF, and no true CFer.

 

 

Edited November 13, 2015 by jokin

[big dog]

 

So true.  Why don't people actually look at the potential names likely to be on the opening day roster filling OF spots? And no proven CF. The options there are Rosario and Santana and/or the semi-inevitable bargain bin veteran signee. And then you have Arcia and perhaps Sano, who's never played there. You were right Chief, as of this moment, we know of only one for-sure real live actual OF, and no true CFer.

Hicks hasn't proven anything to me yet, except that some day he might be better than average.  Counting on him as the CF starter next spring?  What is it, fourth time's the charm?

[HitInAPinch]

 

This stuff about being a "corner OF" is way the hell overblown. If other sluggers are present, and you actually have a big-time offensive CF, one doesn't need to worry about slugging coming from the corner OF. I straight up do not understand. Rosario isn't going to be a slugging corner OF either. And neither is Kepler. All of them are likely to be solid all-around players who are above average offensively and good to excellent defensively.

 

This "corner OF type" stuff just blows my mind.

Amen......

[Steve J]

I agree that Hicks was the more valuable player, all things considered.  However, I have the feeling the Twins were the buyers and moved early to fill their catching need.  I think moving early was wise and probably this was probably the best deal be had assuming the Twins had their heart set on a catcher.

 

I like the deal.

 

 

[h2oface]

As with my feelings on Gomez while others were slamming him, I think the Twins will have lost out on an outfielder that has at least one year as an all-star. It just won't be with the Twins. I really think this a personality mismatch more than anything else. I also think that because of that, he had to be traded for him to become what he will, even though I would have liked to see it here. At some point this year, the Twins will certainly regret their lack of outfield depth that this trade will be responsible for. Ryan should have at least gotten an additional minor league arm with the deal. Weiters was the catcher to add. Isn't it about time to set up the run, instead of treading water. Tick tock........  Can't wait to see Murphy in left or right field....

 

[jokin]

 

Hicks hasn't proven anything to me yet, except that some day he might be better than average.  Counting on him as the CF starter next spring?  What is it, fourth time's the charm?

 

Uhh, were you not watching the Twins on a daily basis...?  For all of his faults... he more than proved in 2015 that he could be far more than adequate as a placeholder until Buxton was ready.

Edited November 14, 2015 by jokin

[sane]

 

At some point this year, the Twins will certainly regret their lack of outfield depth that this trade will be responsible for.

You are aware, are you not, that there are still about 140 days until Opening Day. The Twins have their catcher and could conceivably start an outfield of Rosario, Sano, and a FA. (think Yoenis Cespedes, Austin Jackson, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward or Justin Upton as Hicks replacements)

Instead of bidding for Weiters who was almost the only FA catcher available, and keeping Hicks; now they have Murphy to catch and can bid for a FA outfielder. How about Cespedes and Sano in the OF corners and Rosario/Santana in CF until Buxton is ready?

[jokin]

 

As with my feelings on Gomez while others were slamming him, I think the Twins will have lost out on an outfielder that has at least one year as an all-star. It just won't be with the Twins. I really think this a personality mismatch more than anything else. I also think that because of that, he had to be traded for him to become what he will, even though I would have liked to see it here. At some point this year, the Twins will certainly regret their lack of outfield depth that this trade will be responsible for. Ryan should have at least gotten an additional minor league arm with the deal. Weiters was the catcher to add. Isn't it about time to set up the run, instead of treading water. Tick tock........ Can't wait to see Murphy in left or right field....

 

Hah...! It does seem like he's destined to go out there in order to "keep his bat fresh" as the 5th OF, doesn it? But I looked it up... Murphy's too good for a mere corner OF spot. His only other position besides catcher in the minors was 3rd base- 37 games... so at least he's got that going for him  

Edited November 14, 2015 by jokin

[jokin]

 

You are aware, are you not, that there are still about 140 days until Opening Day. The Twins have their catcher and could conceivably start an outfield of Rosario, Sano, and a FA. (think Yoenis Cespedes, Austin Jackson, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward or Justin Upton as Hicks replacements)

Instead of bidding for Weiters who was almost the only FA catcher available, and keeping Hicks; now they have Murphy to catch and can bid for a FA outfielder. How about Cespedes and Sano in the OF corners and Rosario/Santana in CF until Buxton is ready?

 

One can surely dream...

 

But then reality bites us in the rear end:

 

 http://extras.mnginteractive.com/live/media/site569/2013/0603/20130603__1-clete%20thomas_400.jpg

[h2oface]

 

You are aware, are you not, that there are still about 140 days until Opening Day. The Twins have their catcher and could conceivably start an outfield of Rosario, Sano, and a FA.

Are you just trying to scare me, now?

Edited November 14, 2015 by h2oface

[stringer bell]

Well, defense matters too. Hicks is likely better than all three defensively.

It's not as important as defense in center. Arcia isn't good, but the others could be more than OK.

[jimmer]

 

You are aware, are you not, that there are still about 140 days until Opening Day. The Twins have their catcher and could conceivably start an outfield of Rosario, Sano, and a FA. (think Yoenis Cespedes, Austin Jackson, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward or Justin Upton as Hicks replacements)

Instead of bidding for Weiters who was almost the only FA catcher available, and keeping Hicks; now they have Murphy to catch and can bid for a FA outfielder. How about Cespedes and Sano in the OF corners and Rosario/Santana in CF until Buxton is ready?

If you think we are going to make serious bids for Cespedes, Gordon or Heyward I have some beach front property in Nebraska for sale :-)

[sane]

 

If you think we are going to make serious bids for Cespedes, Gordon or Heyward I have some beach front property in Nebraska for sale :-)

Did you think we were going to make serious bids for Weiters who was almost the only FA catcher available?

Every team short a starting catcher would have been at that auction.

[jimmer]

 

Did you think we were going to make serious bids for Weiters who was almost the only FA catcher available?

Every team short a starting catcher would have been at that auction.

If you find one post I have written where I strongly advocate even going after Weiters much less complaining that we don't, I will record the eating of my shorts, post it on you tube and link it here :-)

 

I'm not 100% sure I've ever even talked about Weiters until this post (though I won't eat my shorts if it turns out I did one time back in the day :-))

Edited November 14, 2015 by jimmer

[sane]

 

I know that you disliked Hicks/Murphy trade.

What were our other options for upgrading the catchers?

 

[jimmer]

 

I know that you disliked Hicks/Murphy trade.

What were our other options for upgrading the catchers?

How about tapping into our lauded farm system?  Why is it that our team never does that?  Is it because it's always about the future and never about the present? I understand why it was such a bad move back when this team was poor, but that's not the case anymore.

[sane]

How about tapping into our lauded farm system?  Why is it that our team never does that?

The Yankees probably (traditionally?) were more interested in immediate help,rather than prospects.

[jokin]

 

  The twins have outfielders to spare. 

 

Not for the first two months.... (at least)

[jokin]

 

I said it in another thread but Murphy has a better career ops in the majors than hicks does and has done it as a part time guy not getting consistent at bats and being 2 years younger. Add in the weakness at catcher and its a good trade. Great analysis

 

Severe small sample overestimation plus BABIP and Yankee Stadium factors not fully discounted for.

[jimmer]

 

The Yankees probably (traditionally?) were more interested in immediate help,rather than prospects.

yeah, there are other teams we could have had discussions with if we did that.  We basically tie a hand behind our back in regards to acquiring proven MLB talent when we refuse to trade a prospect our two out of our supposedly stacked farm system.  Like I said, I understood why we didn't back in the day due to financial reasons, but it's just not the case anymore.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How about tapping into our lauded farm system? Why is it that our team never does that? Is it because it's always about the future and never about the present? I understand why it was such a bad move back when this team was poor, but that's not the case anymore.

I'm glad they didn't tap into the farm, as any competent catcher is going to cost Kepler or Berrios.

 

I think both will be better than Hicks, possibly as early as this season.

 

That's why I wanted to roll the dice on Wieters. It's not that I liked Wieters so much, it's that I hated the price of everyone else (not including Murphy, who never even crossed my mind).

[USAFChief]

You are aware, are you not, that there are still about 140 days until Opening Day. The Twins have their catcher and could conceivably start an outfield of Rosario, Sano, and a FA. (think Yoenis Cespedes, Austin Jackson, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward or Justin Upton as Hicks replacements)

Instead of bidding for Weiters who was almost the only FA catcher available, and keeping Hicks; now they have Murphy to catch and can bid for a FA outfielder. How about Cespedes and Sano in the OF corners and Rosario/Santana in CF until Buxton is ready?

If Wieters was going to be too expensive, I don't think it's likely they'll be shopping in the Cespedes section of the FA outfielder market.

[jimmer]

 

I'm glad they didn't tap into the farm, as any competent catcher is going to cost Kepler or Berrios.

I think both will be better than Hicks, possibly as early as this season.

That's why I wanted to roll the dice on Wieters. It's not that I liked Wieters so much, it's that I hated the price of everyone else (not including Murphy, who never even crossed my mind).

Seems there is never a right time to tap into the farm system, even when it's loaded. Not when we are in the playoff hunt, not when it's to get a position player of need, never.  We don't use a valuable source of acquiring players on the off chance a prospect might turn out great, even when the odds are so very much against it.  I'm not calling for doing it all the time, or even often, but sometimes.  Ryan never does it. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Seems there is never a right time to tap into the farm system, even when it's loaded. Not when we are in the playoff hunt, not when it's to get a position player of need, never. We don't use a valuable source of acquiring players on the off chance a prospect might turn out great, even when the odds are so very much against it. I'm not calling for doing it all the time, or even often, but sometimes. Ryan never does it.

And that's a fair argument, I'm just not ready to lose Kepler or Berrios.

 

Berrios is the team's only legit hope for a front line starter and I like Kepler better than either Rosario or Hicks (I may have even traded Rosario before Hicks).

 

Anyone else in the system is fair game, IMO... But the problem is that no one else in the system is far enough along in their career and/or good enough to bring back a truly talented catcher. Maybe you can make a case for Gordon but I don't see it yet.

[halfchest]

 

Severe small sample overestimation plus BABIP and Yankee Stadium factors not fully discounted for.

 

true, but main point is we're overvaluing Hicks, after a .597 and .615 OPS in 2013 and 2014.  Then in 2015, he had the same numbers except for one very small sample in the month of July.  Other than that month he's a medicore to bad hitter.  So while John Ryan Murphy may not be much, it says something that the Yankees called him up as a 22 year old and he put up respectable numbers in 2015 as a backup catcher both offensively and defensively.  I'm not saying it's a slam dunk but I think some need to step back and take a realistic look at Hicks.  

[Monkeypaws]

How can anyone say with certainty that Buxton won't have a great spring and jump into the CF spot?

 

Just because some pundit or front office suit thinks that doesn't make it so.