Article: Can Dan Runzler Help The Twins In 2016?

[Thrylos]

Earlier this week, and lost among winning the rights to negotiate with Byung-Ho Park, trading Chris Herrmann for Daniel Palka, and Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy, the Twins signed LHP Dan Runzler to a minor league contract.

 

The transaction seems pretty unremarkable, reading something like this: The Twins have signed LHP Dan Runzler from the Sugar Land Skeeters of the Atlantic League and have assigned him to AAA Rochester Red Wings.Dan Runzler is not Andrew Albers or Caleb Thielbar, a couple of unremarkable Twins' minor league free agents originating from the independent leagues and playing in the majors during the Twins' recent dark years. Who is Dan Runzler and why I am so sure that he might actually be a factor? First things first:

 

Dan Runzler is 30 years old, listed at 6'4" and 230 lbs (but his physique looks a lot like that of former Twins' Tyler Robertson; think NFL defensive end.) He is from Santa Monica, CA, and was drafted by the San Francisco Giants from the University or Riverside (CA) in the ninth round of the 2007 draft. At Riverside in his junior (last) season, he was a swing man, starting 10 games (including a complete game) and relieving in 12. He did have an electric fastball in college and added a devastating slider in the Giants' minors, allowing him to make the jump in the majors in 2009, just two seasons after he was drafted. After that season, he was listed as high as number 4 in the Giants' prospect lists. Baseball America had him at number 5 with Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Zach Wheeler ahead of him. So he was a highly-regarded prospect.

 

In 2010, the season that the Giants won it all, he was an integral part of their bullpen and has a World Series ring to prove it. The local press held him in the same regard (as a potential closer) with Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt. Not shabby company to have, especially if you can back it up on the mound with a plus-plus 95-97 mph fastball and a 85-88 mph slider, producing a 25.7% K-rate (resulting to 10.2 K/9) and a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio. Think of Francisco Liriano before elbow problems. That season he had a 3.03 ERA and 3.14 FIP.

 

So what happened? A couple of things: Runzler has always been somewhat wild and the command of his slider has been inconsistent. Even in the 2010 season, he had a 5.5 BB/9 and 1.500 WHIP (even with a below average .250 BABIP.) Later in the season he had a knee injury that made him go on a couple of rehab stints and was caught in the numbers game for a team that was after (and won) a World Series. By 2011 he was bypassed in the depth charts on a highly competitive team and a bad shoulder and lat injury that, in his words, "subconsciously made him change his mechanics". In the same piece he called his command problems in 2010 and before, "mental issues".

 

At that point he was demoted. Regardless the source of his problems, he never made it back, was optioned a couple of times and finally outrighted in September of 2013. The Giants released him in July of 2014 to play in Japan. For some reason he never made it. Last season he hooked up as a free agent with the Diamondbacks where he pitched in 39 games (37.7 IP) for the AAA Reno Aces of the Pacific Coast League. His ERA was 5.26 (3.86 FIP), WHIP 2.02 (but an outlandish .407 BABIP.) He walked 28 (6.7 BB/9) and struck out 40 (9.6 K/9.) Encouragingly, his K% was 21.6% and he was close to 3:1 in ground outs : fly outs. He finished the season playing 19 games (17.1 IP) with Sugar Land of the Atlantic League, where he put insane (but almost irrelevant) numbers: 0.52 ERA, 3 BB (1.6 BB/9), 20 K (10.4 K/9), and 0.865 WHIP. The one number that is of interest here is the walk number, which is stellar. And this is a number for which competition does not matter that much because you either throw strikes, or you don't.

 

I think that Runzler might be a great signing for the Twins. Clearly, his issues with command are mechanical and mental. And he admitted that. The fact that he was not throwing as many balls while playing at Sugar Land makes me think that he was not thinking too hard and just throwing in that level. Can he do this come spring training, and hopefully in the majors, for the Twins? Can the Twins help his mechanics? Two very important questions to answer, but lefties who throw 97 mph fastballs and 88 mph sliders do not grow on trees, especially when that repertoire results in 11 K/9 and 2-3:1 GB:FB out ratio and a .212/.282/.263 slash line (his career number) from left hand hitters.

 

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Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch

 

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[Homer Hanky]

great stuff.... 

 

i like this guy...

[nicksaviking]

I do too.  No offense to Blaine Boyer, but these are the kinds of gambles the team should be making.  The odds of him figuring it out might not be high, but if he does, the results will not be boring.  He's the kind of guy who will almost certainly only be either a bust, or have late inning abilities, this isn't long-man/swing-man/mop-up-duty kind of material.

 

 

[Gernzy]

I saw the signing the other day but didn't think much of it. Just thought it was another stab at a unknown reliever. I didn't know anything about him until I read this. If he can get even close to his top level he should be able to help the bullpen for sure.

 

Nice work Thrylos!

[Seth Stohs]

 

I do too.  No offense to Blaine Boyer, but these are the kinds of gambles the team should be making.  The odds of him figuring it out might not be high, but if he does, the results will not be boring.  He's the kind of guy who will almost certainly only be either a bust, or have late inning abilities, this isn't long-man/swing-man/mop-up-duty kind of material.

 

And if he performs as well as Boyer did in 2015, we'll all be thrilled. The Twins have always done a good job with minor league RP signings. Maybe Runzler is the good story for 2016. If not, it hurt nothing.

[ThejacKmp]

I like this guy and wreitup but have to disagree that the low walks in independent ball tell us anything. Against lesser competition he may just be able to blow the ball by guys. He may be facing guys who can't really hit breaking balls. His pedigree and track record are bigger signifiers.

 

Go Twins!

[DocBauer]

Very low cost. Potentially high reward. This is the kind of signing that TR probably does as well as or better than most.

[Halsey Hall]

Good article Thrylos, this guys sounds like he just might be able to help us out.  That would be great!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I like this guy and wreitup but have to disagree that the low walks in independent ball tell us anything. Against lesser competition he may just be able to blow the ball by guys. He may be facing guys who can't really hit breaking balls. His pedigree and track record are bigger signifiers.

Yeah, I was going to say this too.  The Sugar Land Skeeters competition probably doesn't have anywhere near the pitch recognition or bat speed of affiliated hitters.  Lew Ford is an absolute beast in that league.

 

It's definitely better than if he'd have walked 5.5 per 9 down there, but it really doesn't tell us anything about whether he is ready to improve upon his career 5.5 per 9 walk rate in MLB or the affiliated minors.

 

Good signing, though.

[Homer Hanky]

A few dark horse signings like this are fantastic... However I do hope we go out and get a few sure things when it comes to the bullpen... 

 

Plooooof is a great player that can be traded for some sure fire bullpen arms! 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Very low cost. Potentially high reward. This is the kind of signing that TR probably does as well as or better than most.

Depends how you define "potentially high reward" -- I guess when you are dealing with very low costs, any reward at all seems high by comparison, but I'm not sure if TR's record shows many notably high rewards from these types of signings. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I like this guy and wreitup but have to disagree that the low walks in independent ball tell us anything. Against lesser competition he may just be able to blow the ball by guys. He may be facing guys who can't really hit breaking balls. His pedigree and track record are bigger signifiers.

 

Go Twins!

 

I agree. In talking to pitchers as they move up the levels of the minor leagues, they'll often talk about how the strike zone shrinks. That always confused me because the strike zone is supposed to be a constant.

 

In reality, what the pitchers are saying is that hitters as they move up don't expand the strike zone as much. They (many) have improved plate discipline and don't swing outside the zone as much. 

 

Where does the Atlantic League fit into the typical affiliated ball hierarchy? Some say AA. Some say Hi-A. The reality is that it's all over the place. There are several former Major Leaguers, and there are some guys just out of college looking for an opportunity. 

[Thrylos]

 

Yeah, I was going to say this too.  The Sugar Land Skeeters competition probably doesn't have anywhere near the pitch recognition or bat speed of affiliated hitters.  Lew Ford is an absolute beast in that league.

 

Here is the thing with this:  Your argument works for strikeouts.  People will swing at balls.  But to get walks you need to throw strikes  and if you throw strikes in beer ball you can throw strikes in the independent league or in the minors or in the majors (or in a bullpen session).   His problem has been throwing strikes. 

 

Let's look at his numbers:

 

2014 Fresno AAA PCL:   7.4 H/9, 7.0 BB/9

2015 Sugar Land IL ATL: 6.2 H/9, 1.6 BB/9

 

I think that the throwing strikes and finding the plate is league independent.   Shooter Hunt could not throw strikes in beer ball

Edited November 13, 2015 by Thrylos

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

Here is the thing with this:  Your argument works for strikeouts.  People will swing at balls.  But to get walks you need to throw strikes  and if you throw strikes in beer ball you can throw strikes in the independent league or in the minors or in the majors (or in a bullpen session).   His problem has been throwing strikes. 

 

Let's look at his numbers:

 

2014 Fresno AAA PCL:   7.4 H/9, 7.0 BB/9

2015 Sugar Land IL ATL: 6.2 H/9, 1.6 BB/9

 

 

I like the numbers, but do we know anything about the opponents' swing percentage on out-of-zone pitches? I thought this was a percentage that reduced through the minor leagues and into the majors? 

[DocBauer]

This signing may not work out at all. Too bad...but it isn't a major trade or FA acquisition, etc, etc. But this is not a milb washout, non-drafted wannabe who has clawed and scratched his way to becoming an interesting option through independent ball. (to be fair, some of those guys turn out to be nice pick ups!)

 

Instead, Runzler is a former top prospect who made the major and excelled for a time before injuries began to mess with his body, and it sounds like his head as well. Healthy in body and mind, a step back out of any spotlight for a time, he might be ready to re-harness his stuff and return to a prominent role. HUGE pickup for the Twins if this is possible.

 

And FWIW...while I don't want high BB totals either, I can live with a few if BA against is low and SO's are high.

[AKTwins]

Good article. Low risk/high reward doesn't do this justice. It's more like no risk/all reward. If he ends up as a roster fuller in AAA there is nothing wrong with that. If he ends up giving the twins a couple good months and peters out, a la Thompson last year, no big loss. If he turns into this years Ryan Madson I would not be surprised.

[Thrylos]

 

I like the numbers, but do we know anything about the opponents' swing percentage on out-of-zone pitches? I thought this was a percentage that reduced through the minor leagues and into the majors? 

 

Again, this has nothing to do with him allowing fewer walks

 

21.9% in the majors, 20.5% in his best season 2010

Edited November 13, 2015 by Thrylos

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Here is the thing with this:  Your argument works for strikeouts.  People will swing at balls.  But to get walks you need to throw strikes  and if you throw strikes in beer ball you can throw strikes in the independent league or in the minors or in the majors (or in a bullpen session).   His problem has been throwing strikes. 

 

Let's look at his numbers:

 

2014 Fresno AAA PCL:   7.4 H/9, 7.0 BB/9

2015 Sugar Land IL ATL: 6.2 H/9, 1.6 BB/9

 

I think that the throwing strikes and finding the plate is league independent.   Shooter Hunt could not throw strikes in beer ball

At its extremes, obviously you can give anybody the "take" sign against Shooter Hunt and Rick Ankiel at their worst.  But it's not all clear Runtzler is in that extreme.

 

Based only on these numbers, it's possible Runztler changed his pitch selection and approach in indy ball, as he didn't really gain a lot of additional strikeouts or allow significantly fewer hits as you might expect against inferior competition.  If he used his old approach, maybe he would have had 14 K/9, 4 H/9, and 5 BB/9 or something.  But who knows if the new approach will help him and to what degree back in affiliated ball.

 

Still, I'll drop it as I agree with the rest, it's a good signing, and thanks for bringing it to our attention!

[Dr. Evil]

If some actual proven quality is added to the MLB bullpen roster this offseason, this move is a low risk/high reward thing. If this is the start of the scrap heap that Ryan hopes to form a bullpen from then it's disappointing. Time will tell what he has in mind. History does not leave me with much optimism.

[Darius]

 

Very low cost. Potentially high reward. This is the kind of signing that TR probably does as well as or better than most.

 

To be fair, he's done it more than most over a longer period of time.  In a typical year, those are the only kinds of signings he makes (low cost).  There probably aren't many other teams in the MLB that have signed 4 ILers within the last couple of years, let alone any that had rosters bad enough for them all to see the active 25-man.  With that kind of volume over two decades of awful teams (give or take a couple first round playoff exits in the aughts), you're bound to blindly stumble into a serviceable player every once in a while.  

 

Honestly, on this topic about this player, I'm not saying that it says positive or negative things about about TR.  It could end up being an excellent signing (I like it a lot, actually.  Sounds like he's got a new lease on baseball life).  

 

But, the fact remains:  30 year old players from the independent league just aren't going to get a shot on an average-to-good team (guys like Albers, etc.).  When you're resorting to multiple ILers on an annual basis, you probably haven't done the rest of your job very well (drafting, MLB free agents, international free agents, etc.), as those guys are in the ILs, and cheap, for a reason.  I'm glad he exhausting all resources to fill out the best roster possible (with the tight budgets he is given), but I'd rather see him start hitting on some more pitchers in the draft and free agency so its not necessary every year.

 

 

Edited November 13, 2015 by Darius

[DocBauer]

 

To be fair, he's done it more than most over a longer period of time.  In a typical year, those are the only kinds of signings he makes (low cost).  There probably aren't many other teams in the MLB that have signed 4 ILers within the last couple of years, let alone any that had rosters bad enough for them all to see the active 25-man.  With that kind of volume over two decades of awful teams (give or take a couple first round playoff exits in the aughts), you're bound to blindly stumble into a serviceable player every once in a while.  

 

Honestly, on this topic about this player, I'm not saying that it says positive or negative things about about TR.  It could end up being an excellent signing (I like it a lot, actually.  Sounds like he's got a new lease on baseball life).  

 

But, the fact remains:  30 year old players from the independent league just aren't going to get a shot on an average-to-good team (guys like Albers, etc.).  When you're resorting to multiple ILers on an annual basis, you probably haven't done the rest of your job very well (drafting, MLB free agents, international free agents, etc.), as those guys are in the ILs, and cheap, for a reason.  I'm glad he exhausting all resources to fill out the best roster possible (with the tight budgets he is given), but I'd rather see him start hitting on some more pitchers in the draft and free agency so its not necessary every year.

Very valid points!

 

Good or bad, I think TR looks for guys like this not just because it can be smart with high reward, but its ingrained in him from the older, cheaper dome-days. You give him a $150M budget, and I think he still makes at least one move/signing like this just because it's smart.

[bluechipper]

Sounds like an experienced/old version of Cameron Booser.

[bird]

Fantastic job with the homework on this guy, thrylos. We should root hard for this man.

[DaveW]

Nice pick up. However they need to get at least one more arm they can truly count on in the late innings, Benoit would have been an nice target but he is already traded, plenty of other arms on the market that can be legit 7th/8th guys. Clippard, Storen etc.

[ScottyB]

Sounds like the same size as Ryan O'Rourke - with about 4-5 MPH faster fast ball.  At a minimum an upgrade there and probably Darnell as well.  We still need to look for bullpen upgrades.

[Rosterman]

Guys go to Indy ball to prove themselves again and get anotehr chance, period. They are hungry. But at the time, not good enough to hold a place in a team's minor league system which has prospects that may need an advance. Every year the Twins sign a bunch of AAAA-type guys, a quarter of them don't make it apst spring training, it seems. But they are given a looksee. Right now, many of us would prefer to see Twins prospects at AAA Rochester in 2016 than a lineup full of one-year minor league free agents.

[notoriousgod71]

The guy has a 1.50 WHIP and 5.5 BB/9 every year regardless if he's in MLB or the minors.

 

I don't know why anyone would expect him to be different this season.