2015-2016 Offseason Thread

[bluechipper]

 

I like McGee a lot, but he's also 30 and coming off a major injury. Dickerson-also coming off injuries-but can definitely be a solid every day OF for them. I guess it is tough to gage these Rockies until they play elsewhere.

I think Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau are pretty good examples of what playing in Colorado can do for a players numbers. I bet Dickerson hits in the .260-.270 range with 15 HRs this year. That's decent, but not anything special when you look at him defensively and speed-wise.

[Vanimal46]

Big trade between the Diamondbacks and Brewers:

Diamondbacks receive SS Jean Segura, RHP Tyler Wager

Brewers receive RHP Chase Anderson, 2B Aaron Hill, SS Isan Diaz + cash

Diamondbacks are going for it, and I like it. 

[biggentleben]

 

Big trade between the Diamondbacks and Brewers:

Diamondbacks receive SS Jean Segura, RHP Tyler Wager

Brewers receive RHP Chase Anderson, 2B Aaron Hill, SS Isan Diaz + cash

Diamondbacks are going for it, and I like it. 

 

This is a deal that could end up win-win for sure. I like Segura on the Dbacks. They had guys who really brought nothing offensively (not that Segura is some sort of offensive catalyst, but at least the man can run) while playing passable defense, and Segura is a guy who can at least give the Dbacks options at both middle infield positions at a fairly cheap rate. I loved the tweet I saw this weekend (and I admittedly forgot who it was from, but I do recall it being a scout-esque person) that stated that Segura and Elvis Andrus are basically the same player offensively while Segura provides better hands and less arm defensively, yet Andrus is getting $100M between now and 2022 guaranteed while Segura's locked into just under $3M for 2016 and team control for 2 more seasons, so that's a pretty valuable piece.

 

On the Brewers side, I'm not a fan of Anderson whatsoever, so we'll toss that aside, but I've always liked Hill more than I thought I should, even if he's only there a year. He could be a guy who has a solid first half and is flipped as well. This also lets them see what they have in Jon Villar before turning over SS to Arcia next year (or allows SS to be open if Arcia pushes for the job this season). The big thing that could swing this deal for the Brewers is Diaz. He's a guy who has received rave reviews since being drafted, and while he likely isn't a shortstop long term, there's been a lot of comparisons to either Ian Desmond with better patience or Robinson Cano with more speed as his ultimate upside. That's one hell of a player, obviously, and if he gets to even 90% of that, the Brewers win this deal by a mile.

[Vanimal46]

 

This is a deal that could end up win-win for sure. I like Segura on the Dbacks. They had guys who really brought nothing offensively (not that Segura is some sort of offensive catalyst, but at least the man can run) while playing passable defense, and Segura is a guy who can at least give the Dbacks options at both middle infield positions at a fairly cheap rate. I loved the tweet I saw this weekend (and I admittedly forgot who it was from, but I do recall it being a scout-esque person) that stated that Segura and Elvis Andrus are basically the same player offensively while Segura provides better hands and less arm defensively, yet Andrus is getting $100M between now and 2022 guaranteed while Segura's locked into just under $3M for 2016 and team control for 2 more seasons, so that's a pretty valuable piece.

 

On the Brewers side, I'm not a fan of Anderson whatsoever, so we'll toss that aside, but I've always liked Hill more than I thought I should, even if he's only there a year. He could be a guy who has a solid first half and is flipped as well. This also lets them see what they have in Jon Villar before turning over SS to Arcia next year (or allows SS to be open if Arcia pushes for the job this season). The big thing that could swing this deal for the Brewers is Diaz. He's a guy who has received rave reviews since being drafted, and while he likely isn't a shortstop long term, there's been a lot of comparisons to either Ian Desmond with better patience or Robinson Cano with more speed as his ultimate upside. That's one hell of a player, obviously, and if he gets to even 90% of that, the Brewers win this deal by a mile.

I like Segura on the D-Backs as well. He provides an upgrade offensively over Ahmed, and at a very attractive price tag like you mentioned. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers do exactly that with Hill. Be a mentor for Villar and Arcia, hopefully put up good numbers until July, and flip him to a contending team for more prospects.

That's an interesting insight about Diaz. I didn't know anything about him, and was wondering who was the big piece that would entice Milwaukee to pull the trigger on this deal. Makes sense if he has that kind of upside. 

[biggentleben]

 

I like Segura on the D-Backs as well. He provides an upgrade offensively over Ahmed, and at a very attractive price tag like you mentioned. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers do exactly that with Hill. Be a mentor for Villar and Arcia, hopefully put up good numbers until July, and flip him to a contending team for more prospects.

That's an interesting insight about Diaz. I didn't know anything about him, and was wondering who was the big piece that would entice Milwaukee to pull the trigger on this deal. Makes sense if he has that kind of upside. 

 

Yeah, the numbers on Diaz last year were nuts. He played for their advanced rookie league team at 19, and in 312 plate appearances put up a line of .360/.436/.640 with 13 home runs and 12 steals along with 25 doubles and 6 triples and a 34/65 BB/K rate. The Dbacks moved him to second for a few games of last season, but most think he might fit better at third as his issue is more range than arm at short. He was a cold-weather high school player (Massachusetts) that went in the 2nd round, so he's still plenty raw as well.

[Mike Sixel]

Segura is bad at SS, and bad at hitting. Yuck.

 

That said, the dBacks didn't give up a lot. So, meh.

[biggentleben]

 

Segura is bad at SS, and bad at hitting. Yuck.

 

That said, the dBacks didn't give up a lot. So, meh.

 

That's what numbers say, but it depends on who you talk with. He's got solid hands and decent enough range, but his arm is meh. That's why he was moved to 2B in the Angels system, but he can handle short as long as the arm issues are understood. Scouts like him a lot more than numbers do at short, that's for sure.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's what numbers say, but it depends on who you talk with. He's got solid hands and decent enough range, but his arm is meh. That's why he was moved to 2B in the Angels system, but he can handle short as long as the arm issues are understood. Scouts like him a lot more than numbers do at short, that's for sure.

 

2.5 years of bad play say that.......this isn't sabermetric mumbo jumbo. Simple slash lines show he can't get on base, or do anything with the bat at all.

 

As for the field, we'll see.....

[Vanimal46]

Yeah upon further investigation you guys are right. I remember Segura being a hot name when he started getting regular playing time in 2013. Didn't realize he completely bottomed out the last 2 seasons. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'll say this, if he suddenly hits again, either AZ are geniuses, MILW aren't, or there is a lot of luck....

[biggentleben]

 

2.5 years of bad play say that.......this isn't sabermetric mumbo jumbo. Simple slash lines show he can't get on base, or do anything with the bat at all.

 

As for the field, we'll see.....

 

Yeah, With the field, I'm not saying it was a sabre issue or anything, just that's something I've noted - he's horrid via stats, but gets decent marks from scouts still, so there's a level of disconnect, but those decent marks from scouts are by no means saying he should even be a full time shortstop.

 

With the bat, he's definitely gone down hill, but yet I do think it's interesting that he's viewed so much more negatively than a guy like Andrus, who's making ridiculous money for the foreseeable future.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

With the bat, he's definitely gone down hill, but yet I do think it's interesting that he's viewed so much more negatively than a guy like Andrus, who's making ridiculous money for the foreseeable future.

Obviously the Andrus contract is terrible.

 

But Segura had a notably worse season at the plate in 2015 (12 fewer rBat than Andrus, in fewer PAs).  Over the last 2 seasons, both B-Ref and Fangraphs have Segura as roughly replacement level overall, and Andrus at roughly 3 WAR, which isn't nothing either.  Andrus has never posted a full season WAR (bWAR or fWAR) as low as either of Segura's last 2 seasons.

 

I think what you are suggesting is that expectations are higher for Segura based on his breakout (half) season which Andrus has never quite achieved at the plate,  but ultimately I think Segura gets more scrutiny simply because he's still tradeable and worth discussing.  Andrus isn't going anywhere, so he honestly doesn't get discussed much at all, it seems.

[Vanimal46]

A slight blow to the team that everyone wants to hate, the New York Yankees...

1B prospect Greg Bird is out for the year with a labrum tear in his shoulder. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A slight blow to the team that everyone wants to hate, the New York Yankees...

1B prospect Greg Bird is out for the year with a labrum tear in his shoulder. 

Too bad it didn't come before August 19, 2015 (a pair of 2 run HR to beat the Twins 4-3).

 

At this point, I'd call it a slight blow too.  Bird is a nice prospect, but seemed to over-achieve as a rookie last year (gosh, I hate when Yankee rookies do that), he's never really played anywhere but 1B and DH, and the Yankees still have Teixeira and A-Rod at those spots, who were comparably effective despite their age in 2015.

[Otto von Ballpark]

An interesting opt out mention, by the New York Daily News via MLBTR:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/boras-pedro-alvarez-not-dh-indians-pursuing-uribe-rumors.html

 

 

Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News takes an interesting look back at what was perhaps the first modern deployment of the opt-out clause. Then-Twins GM Andy MacPhail utilized a player option to lure top starter Jack Morris to the organization. “I thought, what’s the worst thing that can happen?” says the current Phillies president. “I was already committed to giving him $9 million over three years. He could pitch great and leave or he could like it and stay the whole time. Either scenario, I would’ve taken. Nor did I get any criticism at the time.” Things couldn’t have worked out much better, as it turns out, as Morris helped lead Minnesota to a World Series before departing.

 

Of course, Morris was exactly the kind of player where the opt-out is fine for the team: entering his age 36 season, and pretty much a less-than-elite talent too despite his workhorse / big game reputation.  Losing Morris' potential upside at ages 37-38 wasn't that big of a potential blow.

[zenser]

Twins sign Carlos Quentin to minor league deal.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/twins-to-sign-carlos-quentin-to-minors-deal.html

 

[Vanimal46]

Tyler Clippard signs with the Diamondbacks... 2 years, $12 million. 

Hello Terry? Are you still with us?

[drjim]

 

Tyler Clippard signs with the Diamondbacks... 2 years, $12 million. 

Hello Terry? Are you still with us?

 

That's a decent amount of scratch for a reliever that really wasn't that good last year and is trending the wrong direction.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's a decent amount of scratch for a reliever that really wasn't that good last year and is trending the wrong direction.

By B-Ref WAR, Clippard has been at 1.2 or greater 6 of the last 7 seasons, which is pretty remarkable. If he had better peripherals last year, he would have gotten a heck of a lot more than 2/12, he could have been closer to O'Day money. He is 31 years old this year, and just a year removed from a 6 season stretch of 10.4 K/9 pitching. What you call "trending in the wrong direction" could just be a solid buy-low opportunity.

 

He wasn't near the top of my FA wish list, but I doubt Arizona will regret this modest deal.

[drjim]

 

By B-Ref WAR, Clippard has been at 1.2 or greater 6 of the last 7 seasons, which is pretty remarkable. If he had better peripherals last year, he would have gotten a heck of a lot more than 2/12, he could have been closer to O'Day money. He is 31 years old this year, and just a year removed from a 6 season stretch of 10.4 K/9 pitching. What you call "trending in the wrong direction" could just be a solid buy-low opportunity.

He wasn't near the top of my FA wish list, but I doubt Arizona will regret this modest deal.

 

Or he could be getting closer and closer to being cooked. I have no problem passing on this deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Or he could be getting closer and closer to being cooked. I have no problem passing on this deal.

One season doesn't seem to equal "closer and closer." Maybe just "closer"?

 

Like I said, he wasn't at the top of my list, I honestly haven't looked at him much at all. I would have targeted a Lowe, or a lefty, or a trade. But I doubt the Twins were really kicking the tires on this guy or anyone else, they made up their mind before the winter they weren't signing anyone for more than 1/4 or whatever and they stuck to their guns. It seems kinda pointless to dissect relievers and their deals as if the Twins were actively considering them.

 

Of all Arizona's recent lousy moves, this isn't really one of them. This seems like a reasonable deal if you plan to contend and have an immediate need for a RHP with some upside.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Oh, and how about Jepsen? One can certainly make a case for preferring Jepsen, but it's not like there is a wide gulf between him and Clippard. And when you consider the prospects we gave up, we're effectively making a similar commitment as Arizona here.

 

Again, I'd probably take Jepsen too, but just giving this deal some more context than simply saying "it's too much". It's really not.

[USAFChief]

I think it's been obvious for a couple months the Twins weren't in the market for anyone costing much more than the minimum.

 

It's finances, not player evaluation, that kept them out of the reliever market.

[drjim]

 

Oh, and how about Jepsen? One can certainly make a case for preferring Jepsen, but it's not like there is a wide gulf between him and Clippard. And when you consider the prospects we gave up, we're effectively making a similar commitment as Arizona here.

Again, I'd probably take Jepsen too, but just giving this deal some more context than simply saying "it's too much". It's really not.

 

I didn't say it was too much, just a decent amount for a guy with red flags. 

 

Looking again, I didn't realize Jepsen had his K/9 drop so much last year. I don't think I would want him on a multi-year deal either - which maybe made the contract he had more valuable, got him for the rest of the year and if he bounced back a little (which he did), you can keep him for another year.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I didn't say it was too much, just a decent amount for a guy with red flags. 

 

Looking again, I didn't realize Jepsen had his K/9 drop so much last year. I don't think I would want him on a multi-year deal either - which maybe made the contract he had more valuable, got him for the rest of the year and if he bounced back a little (which he did), you can keep him for another year.

The Twins were keeping Jepsen no matter what, they weren't trading those prospects for a 2 month reliever rental.  The Twins are effectively getting 8 months of Jepsen for ~$6.3 mil plus prospects, and Arizona has committed $12 mil for 12 months of Clippard.  They're similar commitments.  Had the Twins not acquired Jepsen at the deadline, Clippard on this deal would be greeted quite well on this board.

 

And even in a year of iffy peripherals, both Clippard and Jepsen fetched interesting SP prospects in trade just a few months ago too.  I think you might be overstating how red the flags are on these two at this point (and how much $12 mil buys in modern MLB).

 

Also, note that MLBTR predicted Clippard to get a 3/18 deal.  (The TD Offseason Handbook went nuts and predicted 4/44 for him! Still think that was crazy.)  Sometimes guys deviate from that due to real issues, but sometimes it's just the market and their preferences.  For 2/12, it's probably worth it a team with a bullpen opening to find out if he can perform more like that estimated 3/18 guy, or the $8.3 mil arb award guy from 2014.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don't think the Twins passed on the relief pitcher market so much as they just ignored it and made up their mind to sit out. Nothing wrong with that if it ends up working out. You can see the concern a lot of people have with that approach this year, however.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think the Twins passed on the relief pitcher market so much as they just ignored it and made up their mind to sit out. Nothing wrong with that if it ends up working out. You can see the concern a lot of people have with that approach this year, however.

My fear is they thought Jepsen alone was enough to fix it.  That seems more in keeping with their approach throughout, starting with how they assembled it to begin 2015, their relatively slow promotions, past commitments to cheap low upside vets, etc.  As opposed to the argument that they were inactive this winter because they knew a bunch of stud prospects were about to emerge.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

My fear is they thought Jepsen alone was enough to fix it.  That seems more in keeping with their approach throughout, starting with how they assembled it to begin 2015, their relatively slow promotions, past commitments to cheap low upside vets, etc.  As opposed to the argument that they were inactive this winter because they knew a bunch of stud prospects were about to emerge.

etc., I would add their deference to guys already on the roster. But I do think the presence of Burdi, Chargois and others does have a big influence this year on not participating in the RP market. But we'll see. The barometer for me will be if any of those guys in the minors are firing shutdown innings but not getting promoted because the vets in MLB aren't bad enough to lose their jobs. 

[drjim]

etc., I would add their deference to guys already on the roster. But I do think the presence of Burdi, Chargois and others does have a big influence this year on not participating in the RP market. But we'll see. The barometer for me will be if any of those guys in the minors are firing shutdown innings but not getting promoted because the vets in MLB aren't bad enough to lose their jobs.

I agree with this. I think they feel they have enough in the pipeline that they didn't feel the need to go multiple years on good but far from elite guys. Certainly a gamble, especially after it didn't exactly work last year.

 

I also find it somewhat interesting that in interviews Ryan and other front office guys keep mentioning trades. I guess we'll see.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I agree with this. I think they feel they have enough in the pipeline that they didn't feel the need to go multiple years on good but far from elite guys. Certainly a gamble, especially after it didn't exactly work last year.

I also find it somewhat interesting that in interviews Ryan and other front office guys keep mentioning trades. I guess we'll see.

 

We also heard the bullpen was a "priority" this offseason.  So far we have very different understandings of what a "priority" is.