Article: Twins Roster Projection: Where Are We Now Version

[Winston Smith]

Sano is much, much faster than Plouffe.

So are you Seth!

[HitInAPinch]

 

I'm not giving Arcia a pass, any more than some people gave Danny Santana a pass. You can't explain that one, so I won't ask you to try.

You do know the reason the Twins traded Hicks was to clear the CF spot for Danny, right? 

lol  !

[TwinsTerritory]

 

A contingent from the Minnesota Twins front office is currently at the GM Meetings in Florida. It is fair to say that they have been busy. On Tuesday, Chris Herrmann was sent to the Diamondbacks for Daniel Palka. On Wednesday, the Twins received catcher John Ryan Murphy from the Yankees in exchange for Aaron Hicks.

The offseason is just getting started, and the Twins will likely make a few more moves before spring training starts… in three months. With that in mind, I’m going to do a way-too-early roster projection. Normally, we don’t do these until mid-to-late January, but we’ll try it here today. These aren't my ideas for a Roster Blueprint. I’m not going to try to predict which free agents the Twins will sign. I’m not going to predict trades. The purpose of this is just to talk about the Opening Day roster, with players currently in the organization.

Here is what I think the Twins Opening Day roster could look like if the season were to start today, which is doesn't.Check out my roster projections, and then let’s discuss. Be sure to add your projections too.

Catchers (2): Kurt Suzuki, John Ryan Murphy

The trades from the past two days make this a pretty easy choice for right now. Chris Herrmann is out, and John Ryan Murphy is now in. My guess is that these two catchers will split time pretty evenly the first few months. By midseason or so, I think that Murphy will gradually start getting more playing time. One goal, unspoken for sure, will be to keep Suzuki under the 485 plate appearances which would make his vesting option for 2017 kick in.

At this time, we still don’t know whether or not Pinto will catch again. Following his second concussion of 2015, he didn’t catch any more. The Twins said he will likely get another opportunity to catch in 2016, but I don’t think that is a given either. He may fit onto the roster more as a pinch hitter at this point. However, he is out of options in 2016.

Gone from 2015: Chris Herrmann, Eric Fryer


Infielders (7): Joe Mauer, Byung-ho Park, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Danny Santana

What do we know? Joe Mauer will be the primary first baseman. Brian Dozier will be at second base. I want to say that Eduardo Escobar is a given to be the team’s starting shortstop from the get go in 2016. He has earned it, and there isn’t a free agent shortstop available who is really a better option than what they already have.

Unfinished Business: Byung-ho Park will get some time at first base too, but he will likely be the primary DH. I realize he hasn’t signed yet, but it’s hard to imagine that he wouldn’t want to come to the States to pursue his dream.

The Elephant in the Room: What will the Twins do with Trevor Plouffe? Terry Ryan is saying all the right things. There is no reason for him to come out and flatly say that he wants to trade the third baseman. He has been in the organization since being drafted in 2004 as a 17-year-old. He does have two years of team control remaining and has been an above-average third baseman, offensively and defensively, the last two seasons. Ryan will likely try to maximize the return for Plouffe and to do that, he has let it come out that they would consider Miguel Sano in the outfield. As of today, Plouffe is the third baseman, but expect this to be a very fluid situation, full of rumors. And frankly, Terry Ryan doesn’t have to trade Plouffe. Keeping him should remain on the table.

The Bench: Danny Santana is out of options in 2016. He has all the tools to be a solid regular. He did a great job in 2014 offensively and playing center field. As the everyday shortstop in the first half of 2015, he struggled mightily. Sure, he could be a trade option for the right return, but my sense is that he will be the utility player, able to play shortstop, second base, and centerfield. My guess is that he’ll see time at third base and in left field in spring training. Eduardo Nunez had a really nice season as a role player for the Twins in 2015. In his second year of arbitration, he could make between $1.75 million ad $2 million, not a ton for a solid utility player. Nunez can play three infield positions and both corner outfield spots. To me, it’s an easy decision to offer him arbitration, but it is also possible that he could be traded to a team looking for a solid utility player. Kennys Vargas is a guy who would be ready in-season if there were an injury to Mauer or Park. Jorge Polanco would be an option in the middle of the diamond.

Gone from 2015: Doug Bernier,


Outfielders (4): Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Oswaldo Arcia

I wrote much of this a day ago, before the Twins traded Aaron Hicks. I listed Hicks and Rosario as strong trade candidates. Now I look at who is likely to make the roster as of today, and there are not as many options.

With the Aaron Hicks trade, it may be more possible that Byron Buxton will make the team right out of spring training. Eddie Rosario and Danny Santana can play center if Buxton needs a little more AAA seasoning. Max Kepler is not far off either.

Is it really possible that the Twins could put Miguel Sano in the outfield? Despite his size, Sano has great athleticism and could likely be an adequate defender. However, since he’s never really played out there, it’s impossible to know. Sano is a given to be on the roster, of course. I mean, he was the team’s MVP and is a finalist for AL Rookie of the Year after an impressive debut. It feels more likely that he’ll be the regular third baseman, but this is an option. Personally, with a large left field at Target Field, I would prefer Sano in right field if he were to play out there.

Don’t Forget: Oswaldo Arcia hit 20 home runs, in the big leagues, in 2014. 2015 was a disaster and yet he is still just 24-years-old. He is out of options, so he will need to be on the big league roster or potentially be lost for nothing. He is definitely a sell-low trade candidate… who could go elsewhere and find his power stroke again.

Can you imagine an outfield of Miguel Sano, Rosario and Oswaldo Arcia? That is a little scary.

Gone from 2015: Torii Hunter, Aaron Hicks, Shane Robinson


Starting Pitchers (5): Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone

In my opinion, Hughes, Santana and Gibson are locks to make the Twins Opening Day roster and starting rotation barring, of course, an unforeseen trade. In my opinion, Tyler Duffey showed in his last nine starts that he is ready for the job and should be in the rotation right from the start. Though his name may not be in Sharpie ink, it should be in that erasable ink that really doesn’t erase very well and actually just makes a mess but doesn’t really erase.

After that, the question marks. If Tommy Milone is on the roster, he deserves to be a starter. The Twins will most likely tender him a contract and look to trade him. The return won’t be a lot, but Milone was good most of 2015, except when he was hurt. Likewise, Trevor May was told he would be given an opportunity to start again in 2016 after being moved to the bullpen around the All-Star break. He’s got the best strikeout stuff in the rotation, but he also showed that he could be dominant in the late innings. Ricky Nolasco’s salary may be able to be dumped, but at what cost to the Twins. Could they get anything in return for someone taking on all, or at least some, of his two remaining years? If not, he should come to spring training with a chance to make the starting rotation. And, of course, everyone wants to see JO Berrios get an opportunity. No question, he will be given a real chance to make the Opening Day roster, but he will have to be very good. More likely, he begins the season with the Red Wings and is the first to be called up.

Gone from 2015: Mike Pelfrey,


Bullpen (7): Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin, Ryan Pressly, Logan Darnell

The bullpen is a huge priority for the Twins in the offseason, and to this point they haven’t made any moves there. Glen Perkins is a given to be back. Assuming he isn’t starting, Trevor May is a lock. Kevin Jepsen will be offered arbitration and come back. I would offer arbitration to Casey Fien, though that is certainly not a given to happen. Michael Tonkin is out of options. Few have traveled back and forth from Minneapolis to Rochester as many times, ever, so the Twins will either need to give him a job or risk losing him on waivers. He would be claimed. Ryan Pressly was pitching well when he got injured and will likely be in the running for a spot in 2016. I went with Logan Darnell on this roster, and he is the only left-hander I’ve shown. He probably fits the roster more as a long reliever than a LOOGY.

So who else could be considered from inside? If they want another left-hander, there are some internal options. Ryan O’Rourke is an option against lefties. Taylor Rogers should be given an opportunity right out of spring training. He could be a long-reliever or he could be good facing only left-handers. It’s also entirely possible that Brian Duensing comes back on a lower contract.

Likewise, Blaine Boyer could be brought back from the right side. AJ Achter is an option in the 6^th or 7^th innings. At some point, Alex Meyer could again become an option. JT Chargois, Nick Burdi and Jake Reed are certainly candidates to make the Twins roster at some point in 2016, though Opening Day is probably unrealistic.

It is likely that any potential Trevor Plouffe deal would bring back at least one controllable reliever as part of the package.

Gone from 2015: Blaine Boyer, Brian Duensing, Aaron Thompson


This offseason has a long ways to go. A lot will happen yet, even before spring training. What are your thoughts? What does your roster look like today?

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Here we are a little more than a month later and not much has changed.  While I think many will be disappointed, I think Terry Ryan only has a few things left on his to-do list for the off-season.

 

#1-Sign a reliable relief option, preferably left-handed.

#2-Gauge the trade value of his glut of starting pitchers. (Gibson has decent value, Milone has small value, Nolasco has negative value)

#3-Wait to be blown away by an offer for Plouffe (He better hope the Angels are desperate)

 

My predictions would be that #1 happens (he signs Bastardo to 3/$15.5M), #2 happens when he trades Milone for a mid-level prospect, and #3 never materializes so he decides to go ahead with the Sano OF experiment.  That would leave the 25 man roster looking something like this.  This would put the payroll around $111M.

 

C-Suzuki ($6.0M), Murphy ($0.55M)

1B-Mauer ($23M), Park ($3M)

2B-Dozier ($3M)

SS-Escobar ($1.8M)

3B-Plouffe ($7.7M)

3B/RF-Sano ($0.55M)

LF-Rosario ($0.55M)

CF-Buxton ($0.55M)

RF/LF-Arcia ($0.55M)

Utl-Santana ($0.55M), Nunez ($1.5M)

 

#1-3 SP-Santana ($13.5M), Hughes ($9.2M), Gibson ($0.55M)

#4/5 SP options-Nolasco ($12M), Duffey ($0.55M), Berrios ($0.55M)

 

Late inning RP-Perkins ($6.3M), Jepsen ($6.0M), Bastardo ($5.5M), May ($0.55M)

Middle inning RP-Fien ($2.2M), Tonkin ($0.55M), Pressly ($0.55M)

 

I think the best case scenario with this roster is 88-90 wins and staying in the playoff hunt until the final weekend.  The worst case scenario is probably 72-74 wins and a few guys getting shopped at the trade deadline.  My prediction is 85-77 and they miss the wild card by 1 game.