Article: Twins Roster Projection: Where Are We Now Version

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I pointed out this morning on Twitter... Santana has made 7 starts now in the Dominican Winter League. Five of the have been in CF, and he has one start each at SS and 2B. 

Cool, thanks!

[Thrylos]

About 4 months too early to talk about rosters, but if the pen looks like that, 2016 will not be that much fun

 

Need at least another lefty in addition to Perkins,  and need a couple arms at the Perkins/Jepsen/May level and better and cut the cord with players like Tonkin and Fien who have been part of the problem.  I like Pressly, but he should win that spot in ST.  Not sure about Darnell either.   Frankly, I'd rather see what Hughes can do as the closer; he was great in the Yankees pen, vs. very good in the Twins' rotation where he could be replaced by a top notch arm like Zimmerman.

 

And I do not want to see Milone anywhere in this team.  Give me Berrios and Meyer any day and I hope one of them wins a spot this ST.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Lets just see if he can make the team in any capacity in 2016.  Remember he lost his starting gig in Rochester.  He lacked control, confidence and walked a ton of people. 

 

I assumed Meyer would begin 2016 in Rochester. The question is whether he is a starter or reliever.

[ND-Fan]

I don't think Plouffe is on trade table unless somebody comes and makes offer that terry can't turn down. I think he will be trade candidate in July if the Twins are out the running and are sellers. My feeling is that they can't trade Plouffe now because it would mean they would be loosing over 150 RBI"s and 40+ home runs from last years team if Plouffe and Hunter are gone would be relying on unproven talent going into this season with Park trying to replace Hunter and Plouffe. Also Sano needs a hitter like Plouffe batting behind him to give him some protection. Plouffe become expendable if Park develops into power hitter and Rosario, Sano, and Buxton continue to develop their power. Buxton starts year out at triple A to help him develop and also to give the team one more year of control they will want his best years under team control and hopefully with one contract they can lock him up to his 30 to 31 years of age. The Twins are going to sign one quality reliever to be 8 inning or the closer, and they also will sign one left hander specialists too, and after that I expect them to sign couple veteran relievers to minor league contract to see if they can make the team. I think Danny Santanna if he shows he can hit this spring will be opening day starter in center field. My guess is we open the season with Mauer at 1st, Dozier at second, Escobar at SS, Plouffe at 3rd, Rosario in left, and right fielder to be found yet or comes up from minor leagues, DH Sano. and catcher Suzuki , Bench will be Murphy, Nunez, Arcia, and Park. Starting pitching will be Hughes,Gibson, Santanna, May, and Nolasco . Relief pitchers will be Perkins, Jepsen, Malone, Pressely, to be signed, to be signed, and Fein or Tonkin. Also the Twins will be looking to trade Nolasco for any return either in pitching or position player. I think they are going to keep Malone because they have so little depth from the left side at major league level. Duffy and Berios start the season out at triple A until we have injury or they are able to trade Nolasco which I betting happens in early May if not before season opening and he end up on National league team needing pitching my guess will be somebody like Padres, Marlins, Phillies, and Brewers. The more I look at this team for coming year is my guess we will be lucky to repeat last season numbers we are going to awful young team and will be transition of who's going to lead this team especially when we are talking about trading Plouffe, Suzuki in his last year, and Mauer ( not fitting that type of team leader. My thought its probably going to happen in 2017 beginning and when everything comes together will be 2018.

[ThejacKmp]

 

You saw that that was a frown emoji, right? Not a smile or wink??

 

Some things should not be said and no emoji will make them okay. Not even the poop emoji. Not even the poop emoji.

[dgwills]

I wonder if Atlanta would trade Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher for Ricky Nolasco. They all have similar (bad) contracts. That would give us the a placeholder in the outfield for Buxton/Kepler and it looks like they could use SP depth more than OF depth. They could use Plouffe too, but I have no idea who they could trade us. Hopefully we trade him for pitching as Seth suggested. We could get a reliever from the Angels and they have a few prospects similar to Kohl Stewart.  Maybe Cam Bedrosian and one of those prospects would work.

Those moves would make the roster pretty easy to fill out. Seth's projection looks good enough for me except I think Buxton should start out in AAA.  Santana could be the fourth outfielder or a utility infielder depending on how spring training works out.

 

[Thrylos]

 

I wonder if Atlanta would trade Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher for Ricky Nolasco. They all have similar (bad) contracts. That would give us the a placeholder in the outfield for Buxton/Kepler

 

Bourne's OPS with Atlanta was lower than Buxton's with the Twins.   Swisher is a jerk.  I'd rather see Buxton play than any of these two. 

 

The Twins are competing.  Band Aids should not be acceptable, esp. if they are horrible like those 2.

[TwinsTerritory]

My idea of where to go next if I'm Terry Ryan.  Using some estimates this would put the payroll at about $112 million (not including the Park posting fee or the cash from the Padres).

 

#1--Trade Nolasco to SD for Melvin Upton Jr., Brandon Maurer, and cash ($3M)

       Both teams dump bad contracts that don't fit on their roster and the Twins pick up a reliever for taking on more money.

 

#2--Trade Plouffe to LAA for Jose Alvarez, Joe Gatto, and a low level prospect

       This assumes TR is bluffing about Sano playing outfield.  Twins get a solid lefty for the pen and one of the Angels top SP prospects

 

#3--sign Shawn Kelley to a 3/$13.5M contract

       Has put together a nice run and is a little cheaper than the big RP names on the FA market

 

Opening Day Roster

 

Lineup

1. Buxton CF

2. Mauer 1B

3. Sano 3B

4. Dozier 2B

5. Park DH

6. Rosario LF

7. Arcia RF

8. Escobar SS

9. Murphy C

 

Bench

Suzuki C

Upton OF

Santana UTL

Nunez UTL

 

Rotation

1. Santana

2. Hughes

3. Gibson

4. May

5. Millone

 

Bullpen

Perkins

Jepsen

Kelley

Maurer

Alvarez

Tonkin

O'Rourke

 

AAA  (waiting for spot)

Duffey

Berrios

Meyer

Kepler

Polanco

Vargas

 

 

 

 

[dgwills]

 

Bourne's OPS with Atlanta was lower than Buxton's with the Twins.   Swisher is a jerk.  I'd rather see Buxton play than any of these two. 

 

The Twins are competing.  Band Aids should not be acceptable, esp. if they are horrible like those 2.

I understand your point. They are horrible. With Buxton,Kepler, and Walker in AAA I think we're ok with a band aid for a couple months though. Unfortunately Nolasco has negative value. I mean if you traded him for a bag of balls you'd have to throw in 15 million, so you can't expect too much. Atlanta would only do this if they couldn't get anyone to take on those contracts. For the reasons you stated I think that might happen.

Personally I think we are kind of wasting Buxtons service time if push him to fast and he has a sub 700 OPS season. I'd rather see him work that out in AAA ball.

[Major League Ready]

 

You are getting rid of Suzuki's contract ( LuCroy's is less for 2 years) You are getting a cost controlled LHRP (probably the best available in the whole league). LuCroy and Murphy would be a very effective tandem behind the plate and you wouldn't have to wear either one out. A trade like this actually helps the payroll numbers (8M for Plouffe, 6M for Suzuki, and 5-6 M for Milone). I know giving up Kepler is a risky gamble. and you might have to acquire another "good defensive OF" if you made a trade like this.

My bad, I completely missed the inclusion of Will Smith.  This is a good trade for next year but likely a very bad trade long-term.   It’s short sighted trading all of those assets. 

 

Trade one of Plouffe / Milone for Smith or an equivalent RP and the other for a corner OFer.   Make Murphy the everyday catcher and let Pinto back him up.  Trade Suzuki for a dozen balls.  Use the savings to get Oday or Soria.  The bullpen is waaaaay better, the OF problem addressed and you still have Kepler.  IMO, that is a much better end result that will have much longer impact and potentially a huge impact if Kepler turns out as we hope.

 

There also might be a chance to sign Austin Jackson to a 1 year deal with the savings if he feels he could rebuild his value.  Now I retain even more assets and this could work out great if he has a good year.  The Twins might get a compensation pick.

Edited November 12, 2015 by Major Leauge Ready

[Major League Ready]

 

If you are interested, KLAW has already answered questions about the OF in general, and Kepler in specific in his chat on his site.

 

 

If you are interested, KLAW has already answered questions about the OF in general, and Kepler in specific in his chat on his site.

Mike, do you have a link or do you need to be an insider to see this chat session?

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

 

And I do not want to see Milone anywhere in this team.

 

Milone has done nothing but surpass ignorantly low expectations since he has been here. Arguably the best value in our rotation.

[HitInAPinch]

 

The first three hitters in your proposed lineup:

Danny Santana: Career .309 OBP/2014 was a fluke
Eduardo Escobar: Career .303 OBP/Love me some Eduardo, just not hitting 2nd
Eddie Rosario: Career .289 OBP/One of the lowest walk rates in MLB

Having your 1-3 hitters consist of players that struggle to get on base consistently, is not a recipe for success.

 

Well, when you pick and chose which stats to use..... 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I pointed out this morning on Twitter... Santana has made 7 starts now in the Dominican Winter League. Five of the have been in CF, and he has one start each at SS and 2B. 

 

Hmm.... CF?  Very interesting.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If Santana is also the 4th OF, I wouldn't mind having him and Nunez on the roster.

[mudcat14]

Trade Plouffe for pitching and give Sano 3B.  Go with an OF consisting of Rosario, Buxton, Santana & Arcia and a veteran signee like Sizemore or Victorino,  We have Kepler & AB Walker in the wings and could always make an in-season move if necessary. 

[mcary26]

Hopeful moves, although maybe not all likely:

• Trade Milone
• Trade Nolasco (likely eat half of his salary)
• Trade Plouffe

 

• Sign Jordan Zimmerman
• Sign Denard Span (won't cost a draft pick)

 

• In return for trades get bullpen arms. Ideally at least 1 lefty and a hard throwing strikeout guy.
• Sano plays 3rd base
• Zimmerman becomes our #1 pitcher
• Sign Span to a 1 or 2 year deal. This gives us a lefty batter who can be a leadoff hitter with a very good average and very good on-base.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, do you have a link or do you need to be an insider to see this chat session?

 

ESPN killed chats.....he now does them here:

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/

 

He also has his music, book, and board game reviews there. Awesome website.

[laloesch]

 

And I do not want to see Milone anywhere in this team.

Milone has done nothing but surpass ignorantly low expectations since he has been here. Arguably the best value in our rotation.

 

He's definitely a trade able commodity.  That's the angle I would pursue.  I think you have to find spots for Duffey, May and Berrios eventually. 

[dogsday]

The Questions:

• Is it better to field a line up of eight 12 home run guys, or one with two 30 HR guys and seven 5 HR guys with higher OBPs?
• Does Joltin Joe sit 30+ games next year to keep Parksie’s bat in the lineup on days when he isn’t DH?
• Who is the OF? Rosario and pick two: Buxton, Arcia, Kepler, Santana, Sano?
• Assuming Plouffe, Sano and Parksie, how do you maximize the playing time (and talents, and minimize the weaknesses) of all three?
• Who is the starting rotation: Hughes, Santana, Gibson and pick two: May, Duffey, Milone, Nolasco, Berrios. What do you do with the rest? Stash 2 in the bullpen for spot starts and injury replacement? Leave 2 at AAA and wait and see?
• Is TR done or do we see two SP and Plouffe dealt for something?
• How does a team fair that is constructed as the current Twins are?

[TwinsTerritory]

 

 

The Questions:

• Is it better to field a line up of eight 12 home run guys, or one with two 30 HR guys and seven 5 HR guys with higher OBPs? I think you can win either way, but you still have to play defense and pitch
• Does Joltin Joe sit 30+ games next year to keep Parksie’s bat in the lineup on days when he isn’t DH? Barring injury, I don't think 30+ will happen but I hope it's close to that if he's hitting below .280.
• Who is the OF? Rosario and pick two: Buxton, Arcia, Kepler, Santana, Sano? Barring a Plouffe trade, I think we start the season with Arcia, Santana, and Sano in the OF with Eddie.
• Assuming Plouffe, Sano and Parksie, how do you maximize the playing time (and talents, and minimize the weaknesses) of all three? Throw Mauer in with those 3 and it will be interesting to see how creative Molitor is willing to be.  You can fit all 4 into 1B, 3B, DH, and RF, but it leaves a pretty awful defensive alignment.  Are they willing to move Sano around?  Example: Sano starts in RF, but late in the game they want to move Santana out to RF for defense.  Can Sano move to 3B to keep his bat in the lineup or would he be replaced in the lineup?  Pretty tough to put your best hitter on the bench.
• Who is the starting rotation: Hughes, Santana, Gibson and pick two: May, Duffey, Milone, Nolasco, Berrios. What do you do with the rest? Stash 2 in the bullpen for spot starts and injury replacement? Leave 2 at AAA and wait and see?  I think it's almost certain that one of Duffey and Berrios start at AAA and I would say it's probably 50-50 that they're both at AAA.  As for the other 3.  I think Milone (deservedly) gets a spot if he's on the roster.  I think May starts in spring training and if he looks good, he gets a spot.  That leaves Ricky without a spot.  I really hope that TR begins to clear all of this up in one of 3 ways.   #1 Trade Ricky for less than nothing (likely have to eat money or give up a prospect).  #2 Trade Millone for a prospect or reliever.  #3 Trade Gibson for a package of prospects or solid major league player.
• Is TR done or do we see two SP and Plouffe dealt for something?  I think he continues to listen on Plouffe and the pitchers, but I don't see anything happening soon.  My guess is a trade or two happens in spring training, most likely involving Nolasco, MIllone, Arcia, Santana, or Pinto.  If Plouffe is on the roster in February, I think he stays until at least July 31 and most likely until next November.
• How does a team fair that is constructed as the current Twins are?  As currently constructed, I'm scared they actually regress in the standings.  At a minimum I think TR needs to add to the bullpen.  For the current Twins roster to have a real shot at the playoffs, they would need at least 4 of these things to happen:

1. Buxton is ready to be a star
2. Mauer hits .320 with a .400 OPB
3. Park is the real deal and hits 30 HR with a BA above .260
4. Either Arcia or Santana figures it out and reaches potential
5. Perkins, Jepsen, and May turn into a northern version of the Royals bullpen
6. JO Berrios gets a shot and finishes top 3 in rookie of the year voting

 

 

 

[andy4butler]

Is anyone worried like me that all the power and most of the lineup is right handed? I'm not as high on Rosario due to his low OBP. He has to hit lower in the lineup.

[Clyde123]

 

Is anyone worried like me that all the power and most of the lineup is right handed? I'm not as high on Rosario due to his low OBP. He has to hit lower in the lineup.

In contrast to the Metrodome where left-hand power was at a premium (think baggy), Target Field plays to right-hand power and the Twins have been actively trying to get right-hand power in their system over the past few years.  That said, it would be nice if Arcia could figure things out because he has the type of left-hand power that plays at Target Field and could be placed between the right-handed power in the lineup.  Might have to live with 700 strikeouts from the middle of the order however. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Is anyone worried like me that all the power and most of the lineup is right handed? I'm not as high on Rosario due to his low OBP. He has to hit lower in the lineup.

Yes I am too.

 

I don't know your opinion on Arcia, but I am concerned Arcia isn't getting a fair shake, and possibly for reasons other than baseball reasons. I admit Arcia is a barely adequate outfielder, but as a hitter he is very, very good against righties. Who make up the majority of pitchers. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

based on his 2015, I think there are plenty of baseball reasons to be concerned about Arcia.  I do think he deserves a shot in 2016, but I really hope he spent some time working on both sides of his game this offseason. 

[USAFChief]

based on his 2015, I think there are plenty of baseball reasons to be concerned about Arcia.  I do think he deserves a shot in 2016, but I really hope he spent some time working on both sides of his game this offseason.

 

Concur.

 

I think Arcia has only himself to blame for 2015. I hope he comes to camp raking in the spring.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Is anyone worried like me that all the power and most of the lineup is right handed? I'm not as high on Rosario due to his low OBP. He has to hit lower in the lineup.

 

Not at all.  Good hitters hit. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

based on his 2015, I think there are plenty of baseball reasons to be concerned about Arcia.  I do think he deserves a shot in 2016, but I really hope he spent some time working on both sides of his game this offseason. 

Agree.  I fined it weird how people criticize some players after they've had successful season and give players like Arcia a pass after being demoted to the minors and generally stinking up the joint.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Agree.  I fined it weird how people criticize some players after they've had successful season and give players like Arcia a pass after being demoted to the minors and generally stinking up the joint.

I'm not giving Arcia a pass, any more than some people gave Danny Santana a pass. You can't explain that one, so I won't ask you to try.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

based on his 2015, I think there are plenty of baseball reasons to be concerned about Arcia.  I do think he deserves a shot in 2016, but I really hope he spent some time working on both sides of his game this offseason.

 

For sure. I just wonder if he's a guy that gets energized by being in MLB. Maybe his attitude suffers but so what. He wouldn't be the first. We already know he has a ton of talent for hitting a baseball.