Article: Twins Trade Aaron Hicks To Yankees For Catcher

[sane]

Taking bets on who gets the most PAs in 2016....

I'll bet that Murphy will be the better catcher, but Zuki will get the more PA's because only death can get him out of the game or onto the DL. He is a tough little SOB! He would have been a hockey player, but Hawaii has crappy ice.

[TheLeviathan]

Man there are some posters that are really tone deaf about how they come across.  Sometimes it isn't the people reading into your posts, it's you doing a really poor job articulating your thoughts to create the illusion of a different position.

 

I, for one, will be happy to never see Hicks go back on a ball again (or thrilled if we do it to the Yanks!) and he largely being overrated here.

 

Not thrilled with the trade, I wanted them to pursue a true upgrade rather than just "youth" and I think that's the trap that hurt the Twins here.  

 

On the plus side, I think this might be an endorsement of Buxton making the club straight out of ST.  At least I hope so.

[Thrylos]

I posted my thoughts on the subject in some detail here, but there are few things in the thread worth commending:

 

- Regarding Hicks' LHB abilities:  a. They are better than Murphy's b. I wonder for how long he will be a switch hitter in the Yankees' organization.

- If you compete and get someone to fulfill a starting role from a competitive team that did not thing he was good enough to start, you kinda get the feeling you are setting your expectation lower than you should if you are competing.

- There was definitely some friction with Hicks; he was thrown under the bus by Gardenhire and Antony season before last, plus was that whole not-switch hitting thing;  so this might be a trade of the Garza/Lohse/Slowey variety.  I was thinking that with Gardy & Co gone, this mentality would be gone too, but...

 

[mcary26]

Aaron Hicks was a liability offensively versus right handed pitchers. The Yankees will use him as a platoon player for a while before deciding to play him full time. And acquiring a young catcher under team control for a long time is no easy feat. Especially one that will likely play significant time and is an upgrade over Suzuki. Does Hicks have great upside? Sure. But so do Kepler, Rosario, and Buxton.

[Boom Boom]

I like Hicks better than Murphy. Nothing against Murphy who I think can be a decent catcher, but I believe Hicks really did find himself this last season.

 

I hope the Twins didn't give up on Hicks because they just didn't like him.

[markos]

A few more thoughts:

 

1) For those saying that Hicks only had one good month, it is worth pointing out that his struggles in August and September were mostly due to a very low BABIP - just .245. His rate stats and batted ball stats were solid during those months. If he was less unlucky and closer to his career norm, his overall line for those two months is probably close to a .730-.750 OPS. 

 

2) Someone pointed out Murphy's home/away splits. Ouch. Hard to know how much that matters because the sample size is pretty small, but still...

 

3) Despite all of the warning signs in Murphy's numbers (high BABIP, huge home/away splits, etc), he was a backup all season, and generally speaking a batter's hitting takes a pretty big hit when not playing everyday. If he is the starting catcher going forward, it certainly seems likely that his numbers might have a small uptick, or at least counteract all the warning signs. 

 

4) Also, Murphy was basically league-average or better throughout his minor league career despite being promoted rather aggressively - he was promoted to AA at age 21. That is always a good sign.

 

It is funny - the more I look into these players, the more I like them both going forward.

[jokin]

 

. We're a long way from knowing much of anything on this and at least one expert thinks Murphy is much more than that.  

 

Lots of other experts aren't so sure that he's much more than that.

 

The BABIP thing might have been more addressed by KLaw...

 

How soon we forget rookies and BABIP.  Danny Santana from .405 BABIP to .290 BABIP in 2015.

Murphy BABIPed at .365 in 2014-15, and his MiLB BABIP is historically much lower than Santana's was. 

 

The 2015 AL average BABIP is .296.  Anyone care to wager or guess which side of .296 BABIP Murphy ends up on in 2016?  I'll take the under...

Edited November 12, 2015 by jokin

[sconnytwinsfan]

I think it's kind of premature for Twins fans to think they know what they're getting in Murphy.  What's encouraging to me is that the Yankees were definitely trading from depth for depth and I kind of think that Ryan wouldn't have pulled the trigger this early on a deal for Hicks if he didn't really like the value he was getting.  How valuable would Hicks be if it meant him being a 4th outfielder, especially once Keppler is up?  And if we get 105 games a year at catcher with a .265 average and a .725 OPS with 10-12 HR and 12-15 2B plus a good pitch caller for four years for Hicks?  Well worth it.  I read some NY press about this kid from when he first came up in 2013 and again at the beginning of last season and this.  They were high on him. Not just the Yanks.  The general feeling among the NY press I read was positive about this kids makeup and savvy.  

[d-mac]

 

Second column from the right. I would also use the pergame data because there are a lot of catchers listed who caught 0-1,000 pitches. Total strikes doesn't make for good ranking, IMO. Suzuki is not a great catcher. I just noted my surprise that his 2015 strikes added/lost per game is essentially zero, considering how bad the data looked for 2014.

 

I think we are looking at two different pages. All I see are Frame Chances/Predicted Strikes/Actual Strikes/Extra Strikes/Framing Runs Added By Count... etc

 

But I agree, Suzuki was awful last year.

[Thrylos]

 

Lots of other experts aren't so sure that he's much more than that.

 

The BABIP thing might have been more addressed by KLaw...

 

How soon we forget rookies and BABIP.  Danny Santana from .405 BABIP to .290 BABIP in 2015.

Murphy BABIPed at .365 in 2014-15, and his MiLB BABIP is historically much lower than Santana's was. 

 

The 2015 AL average BABIP is .296.  Anyone care to wager or guess which side of .290 BABIP Murphy ends up on in 2016?  I'll take the under...

 

Hitter BABIP (unlike pitcher BABIP that will eventually regress to the norm of .290) is hitter-dependent.  Some slap hitters (think Ben Revere) have high BABIPs and some power hitters have lower BABIPs.  Has to do with what kind of hitter someone is.   So you check a hitter's BABIP against his previous (majors or minors work) vs. against the league.   Caution:  Sometimes prospects change their hitting styles when getting into their primes.  That will change their BABIPs.  Poster boy:  Dozier.

 

 

[sane]

How soon we forget rookies and BABIP.  Danny Santana from .405 BABIP to .290 BABIP in 2015.

Murphy BABIPed at .365 in 2014-15, and his MiLB BABIP is historically much lower than Santana's was. 

Anyone care to wager or guess which side of .290 BABIP Murphy ends up on in 2016?  I'll take the under...

Don't forget that Santana played EVERY day in 2014, while Murphy played about as much as Hermann played last season. Regular PA's will reveal Murphy's offensive ability (or lack thereof)

[SydneyTwinsFan]

If Murphy is used correctly, then this trade could add value in two ways:

Murphy > Suzuki

Buxton/Arcia/Kepler eventually > Hicks

By moving Hicks you allow him to be replaced by a more productive player.  By acquiring Murphy you increase the production from the C position, assuming (and this is the huge IF when it comes to the Twins) Murphy has been brought in to do more than catch 30 games as a backup.  The overall benefit could be 1-3 wins - not season-changing in itself, but a useful step in a grander plan.

 

Only caveat to the above is whether Hicks could have returned more value elsewhere in the market (eg one or two upside RPs).  I don't know the answer to that, but on balance I am OK with the trade without being wildly excited by it.

[jokin]

 

Hitter BABIP (unlike pitcher BABIP that will eventually regress to the norm of .290) is hitter-dependent.  Some slap hitters (think Ben Revere) have high BABIPs and some power hitters have lower BABIPs.  Has to do with what kind of hitter someone is.   So you check a hitter's BABIP against his previous (majors or minors work) vs. against the league.   Caution:  Sometimes prospects change their hitting styles when getting into their primes.  That will change their BABIPs.  Poster boy:  Dozier.

 

I hope you're right.  However, his career MiLB BABIP is .295.  Until convinced otherwise, I gotta think he will regress to his historical mean.  His two-year MLB BABIP number is comparable to Goldschmidt, Harper and Cabrera... I kind-of doubt that even if he has indeed changed his batting style, that he can maintain numbers at this elite level of play. 

[jimmer]

 

Hitter BABIP (unlike pitcher BABIP that will eventually regress to the norm of .290) is hitter-dependent.  Some slap hitters (think Ben Revere) have high BABIPs and some power hitters have lower BABIPs.  Has to do with what kind of hitter someone is.   So you check a hitter's BABIP against his previous (majors or minors work) vs. against the league.   Caution:  Sometimes prospects change their hitting styles when getting into their primes.  That will change their BABIPs.  Poster boy:  Dozier.

Batter BABIP is also very much susceptible to regression.  Great hitters can maintain a higher one than normal.  Faster player may have an extra touch due to speed, but a .357 BABIP is unlikely to be maintained.

 

'For hitters, we use BABIP as a sanity test of sorts that tells us if their overall batting line is sustainable or not. Virtually no hitter is capable of producing a BABIP of .380 or higher on a regular basis and anything in the .230 range is also very atypical for a major league hitter. In other words, BABIP allows us to see if a hitter seems to be getting a boost from poor defense or good luck or getting docked for facing good defenses and having bad luck.

 

A hitter has control over how often they put the ball in play and how hard they hit the ball, but due to the unpredictable nature of luck and defense, their BABIP may not be a perfect reflection of their performance to date and it is easier to observe this fluctuation when looking at BABIP compared to wOBA, OBP, or SLG for example.'

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/

 

[twinssouth]

Aaron Hicks was a liability offensively versus right handed pitchers. The Yankees will use him as a platoon player for a while before deciding to play him full time. And acquiring a young catcher under team control for a long time is no easy feat. Especially one that will likely play significant time and is an upgrade over Suzuki. Does Hicks have great upside? Sure. But so do Kepler, Rosario, and Buxton.

 

 

 

 

Nice post. Totally agree. I like the trade!!!!!

[markos]

 

I hope you're right.  However, his career MiLB BABIP is .295.  Until convinced otherwise, I gotta think he will regress to his historical mean.  His two-year MLB BABIP number is comparable to Goldschmidt, Harper and Cabrera... I kind-of doubt that even if he has indeed changed his batting style, that he can maintain numbers at this elite level of play. 

I agree that his BABIP is unsustainable. However, I hope that with regular playing time and more experience he will decrease his strikeouts and increase his walks, which should negate the BABIP regression.

[Thrylos]

 

 

'For hitters, we use BABIP as a sanity test of sorts that tells us if their overall batting line is sustainable or not. Virtually no hitter is capable of producing a BABIP of .380 or higher on a regular basis and anything in the .230 range is also very atypical for a major league hitter. In other words, BABIP allows us to see if a hitter seems to be getting a boost from poor defense or good luck or getting docked for facing good defenses and having bad luck.

 

That's kinda garbage generalization    Good slap hitters like Carew (or Dee Gordon) made a living in the upper range and hitters like Adam Dunn and Rob Deer made a living in the lower range.  Adam Dunn and Dee Gordon are polar opposites, but yeah, those BABIP polar opposites are sustainable for some guys.

 

No.  Murphy will likely not continue having a .370something BABIP.  It will probably regress to his recent average of low .300s

[Bark's Lounge]

This trade bums me out. I can't believe the Twins traded Willie Banks for Matt Walbeck. What are they thinking?

[Thrylos]

 

This trade bums me out. I can't believe the Twins traded Willie Banks for Matt Walbeck. What are they thinking?

 

Dave Stevens was the Twins' price in that trade.

[Old Twins Cap]

I watch a lot of Yankees games on MLB dot com.  Yankees are high on Murphy, and he did nothing to disappoint. 

 

Folks, realize that the Yankee kingdom is large, and has its critics, plus a long history in baseball, and their fans and hangers-ons, including MEDIA, are discriminating in the extreme. 

 

Ergo:  You don't get to be the Yankees Number 2 catcher, unless Yankee Kingdom is willing to have you be their Number one catcher.   Not to mention, their manager, Joe Girardi, a former Yankee catcher, and head chieftain of Yankee nation.   Because, catchers get hurt, ALL THE TIME, and generally, need to be given a break, every week, if not one in five days.

 

Kid Murphy is worth something.  He can play.  He's got make-up.  He cares about doing his job well.  He's got training, watchful eyes have been on him ALL THE TIME.  Every day.   And he's young. 

 

We do not know, nor can we, how a kid this young, who won the confidence of Yankee Kingdom, will develop.  Did I mention he is young? 

 

This trade is about the future.  Not something that is easy to predict or control.  Will Hicks or Murphy develop themselves better over time?  Whose character is in a better gear to advance?  

 

Twins have a front-row seat here.  They scouted Murphy as a teen and have had Hicks since he was 18. 

 

I like the odds that the Twins know what they are doing.  I really do.  And, to be fair, for the last three years of Hicks-hating on this site -- and no one has admitted it here, even though it was prevalent and out of all proportion to what Hicks had on offer -- I have, at times, been one of few standing up for him. 

 

I think Murphy is solid.  I hate losing Hicks, but he is balding, at 26, and we do have Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Arcia, Walker, and other options.

 

Today we got a young catcher with good training and pedigree.  I sleep well tonight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kwak]

The price of catchers is stiff.  The Twins drafted several catchers a few years back--but their utility has been marginal.  CFers?  The Twins draft them and trade them like BB cards.  Hicks didn't develop the way they wished--take pitches, work the count, get walks, long ABs, and still hit above league batting average.  Then they changed--put Dozier at the top, and say "let 'er rip! Brian".  Get HRs, doubles, and forget taking pitches to work the count, build pitch count/get walks.  Hicks might have had more success if he had such "swing freedom" but we'll never know.  The Twins are loaded with OFers (and added one in a trade!).  The job is waiting for Buxton (while the FO prays he doesn't become Hicks II.  I think Rosario begins in CF and is flanked by two wide-bodies unless Plouffe is traded--which is probably best for the Twins because I don't see Plouffe as a foundation stone of a long-term winner.

[Vanimal46]

This trade bums me out. I can't believe the Twins traded Willie Banks for Matt Walbeck. What are they thinking?

Bark! You're alive!

[spinowner]

 

Good slap hitters like Carew (or Dee Gordon) made a living in the upper range and hitters like Adam Dunn and Rob Deer made a living in the lower range.  Adam Dunn and Dee Gordon are polar opposites, but yeah, those BABIP polar opposites are sustainable for some guys.

Check out what happened when 25 Adam Dunns played 25 Dee Gordons:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/not/dangerous-experiment-a-roster-of-25-adam-dunns/

[jimmer]

 

I think Murphy is solid.  I hate losing Hicks, but he is balding, at 26, and we do have Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Arcia, Walker, and other options.

 

Today we got a young catcher with good training and pedigree.  I sleep well tonight.

Well, the fact that Murphy isn't balding yet is certainly a good sign :-)  

[Thrylos]

 

This trade is about the future. 

 

If that is true, it is a problem.  If you complete (like the Twins did last season,) the future should be now.

[zchrz]

I like this move, and its nice to see TR being aggressive.  I don't think Hicks is going to ever hit enough to be a valuable piece in a corner outfield spot, and his defense in center was mediocre (plus Buxton).  I don't know much about Murphy but looks like he is a superior defender to Suzuki and has a good chance to already be a better bat, while also being young and only having a year of service time. 

 

 

[Buford_T_Justice]

I have a proximity bias on Hicks. I've been watching and waiting for 3 years, and there was finally a glimmer of hope this year. I didn't want to see him go, and, in my tiny little mind, had him starting in CF to start 2016 and then becoming a pretty stellar 4th OF with plus defense, plus arm, decent on base skills and a little pop.

 

I didn't even buy my |^|€}£¥ing Offseason Handbook yet and my little reality is shattered.

 

Is this guy an upgrade on Herrmann? Sure. But at what price? It seems we're putting a lot of stock in this Park guy who isn't here yet, too much stock in Sano playing OF (and I'm not sure he plays 3B anyway), and one of Arcia or Vargas turning a corner. Am I prepared to see a Sano/Rosario/Arcia OF configuration on Opening Day?

 

Sorry, everyone. I'm not a fan of this trade. However, I am convinced that Ryan is smarter than I am, and that he has purposefully made these moves well before the Winter Meetings. There must be more moves coming.

 

Strap in my friends, and uncap another Fulton Ringer American Pale Ale. The Hot Stove season is upon us.

[nytwinsfan]

LOL, funny how some of the same people (not necessarily at Twins Daily, but probably some here too) that were demanding Mauer to move back to catcher are now upset that the Twins traded for a catcher that had a higher OPS than Mauer last year. Yes I understand that part of the Mauer thing is about freeing up 1st base, which isn't an issue with Murphy. I still think it is funny though.

[jimmer]

 

LOL, funny how some of the same people (not necessarily at Twins Daily, but probably some here too) that were demanding Mauer to move back to catcher are now upset that the Twins traded for a catcher that had a higher OPS than Mauer last year. Yes I understand that part of the Mauer thing is about freeing up 1st base, which isn't an issue with Murphy. I still think it is funny though.

I think it's funny that people point to Murphy's OPS without taking into account his BABIP or his home/away splits.

[Kirbek]

It seems like a big upgrade over Herrman.

 

Span man will be back on a one year deal.  Fearless prediction.