Article: Twins Trade Aaron Hicks To Yankees For Catcher

[stringer bell]

Here's my take:   Aaron Hicks was a different player last year. He hit and fielded like a major league center fielder, but his overall numbers were not quite league average. As noted by many, his LH numbers were below average and every year hitter will face between 2/3 and 3/4 right handed pitchers. If one thinks Aaron Hicks is a top 15 center fielder (offense and defense) the Twins got fleeced. I think Hicks is a marginal starter and would have been replaced by Byron Buxton early in the 2016 season. If Hicks isn't a regular in center, he just doesn't hit enough (especially left handed) to be a regular on an outfield corner. Hicks had more value than a year ago, so Ryan didn't sell low. I'd much rather see Buxton, Rosario, Kepler in the future. For now, the window is open for Arcia to get another shot as a corner outfielder and when his trial is done, perhaps Kepler or maybe even ABW will get a shot. I think that is better than going with Hicks in right or left field.

 

John Ryan Murphy:   He's young, he's cheap, and he's a catcher. Probably the most disturbing thing about Murphy is that he doesn't have All-Star upside. There are no 80 tools, but he profiles to at least get more plate appearances than Herrmann/Fryer and perhaps will be sharing the job or more by midseason. It won't be fair to look at Murphy's numbers compared to Hicks. Look at Murphy's numbers compared to Herrmann/Fryer and Buxton's compared to Hicks.

[shs_59]

my view (front office wannabe)

 

Off-Season Moves so far:  (scale of 1 - 10 )

 

{{KEY}} Examples include:  Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps = 1 ; AJ Pierzynski for Nathan, Bonser and Lirano = 10.

 

1) $12.85MM winning bid for the Rights to negotiate with slugger Byung Ho-Kim

 

*on a 3 or 4 yr deal at $15-20MM  or less = 7 to a 9

 

*on a 4-6 yr deal at or near $ 30 MM or greater = 2

 

2)  C - Chris Herrmann to Arizona D'Backs for high A 1B/ OF  Daniel Palka  = 8

     (personally love this trade, best move in a while)

 

3)  OF - Aaron Hicks to the New York Yankees for C Jon Ryan Murphy

 

even with 3 or 4 years of control for Hicks vs 5 for Murphy  = 3

 

 (not a fan of the move, Hicks = the next Dexter Fowler , you saw the impact he had for the Cubbies post-season run)  I've been saying for 4 years Hicks could be the next Fowler.  Like Fowler, Hicks has a great OB% and eye also like Fowler it took him untill his 3rd MLB trial to have success then kind of take off, obviously this is what the Yankees are banking on, he's already as good as Gardner and Ellsburry are right now.

Edited November 11, 2015 by shs_59

[bluechipper]

 

....but yet, the very reason they are classified as average is that they are the most common fruit, and their performances govern and establish the average-ness.

Haha good point. I guess the Twins need to get some trees. My point is still somewhat valid...

[Reider]

 

I think trading Hicks for a catcher is a good idea.  Hicks faded badly in September (224/321/367, 689 OPS) and projects out as a roughly 700 OPS guy and a strong defensive CF.  I don't know a lot about Murphy but he was least that good with the bat (better, actually) in limited appearances and is supposed to be strong defensively. This means Rosario stays and starts.  The interesting question is whether Buxton breaks camp as the CF or whether we go out and get a free agent. I'm willing to bet that Denard Span's phone is now ringing. He could play CF and lead off - two things we need - and let Buxton and Kepler develop at AAA.    

 

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. The Hicks trade increases the likelihood of Span returning to the Twins. Now that there's two open outfield spots (with Rosario being the only "guaranteed" (penciled in) starting outfielder in 2016), it's something the Twins should consider more than they did yesterday. If the Twins are serious about taking another step forward, which they appear to be, they need to put someone solid out there. the fact that Span is a proven lead off hitter almost makes me think that the Twins would be stupid for not offering him a contract.

 

It would leave one outfield spot open for Buxton and a 4th outfielder spot open for Kepler when they are ready.

[bluechipper]

 

In the Eyes of the Great SHS (front office wannabe)

 

Off-Season Moves so far:  (scale of 1 - 10 )

 

{{KEY}} Examples include:  Wilson Ramos for Matt Caps = 1 ; AJ Pierzynski for Nathan, Bonser and Lirano = 10.

 

1) $12.85MM winning bid for the Rights to negotiate with slugger Byung Ho-Kim

 

*on a 3 or 4 yr deal at $15-20MM  or less = 7 to a 9

 

*on a 4-6 yr deal at or near $ 30 MM or greater = 2

 

2)  C - Chris Herrmann to Arizona D'Backs for high A 1B/ OF  Daniel Palka  = 8

     (personally love this trade, best move in a while)

 

3)  OF - Aaron Hicks to the New York Yankees for C Jon Ryan Murphy

 

even with 3 or 4 years of control for Hicks vs 5 for Murphy  = 3

 

 (not a fan of the move, Hicks = the next Dexter Fowler , you saw the impact he had for the Cubbies post-season run)  I've been saying for 4 years Hicks could be the next Fowler.  Like Fowler, Hicks has a great OB% and eye also like Fowler it took him untill his 3rd MLB trial to have success then kind of take off, obviously this is what the Yankees are banking on, he's already as good as Gardner and Ellsburry are right now.

He is replaceable though. The Twins had no one to catch.

[jokin]

 

Yeah, I'm definitely a TR hater but even I can't call this a horrible trade. 

 

I can.

[mikelink45]

Quite a gamble - one of TR's trends has been to trade CFs.  I believe the Twins could see how defense pushed the KC champs - are we really going to start Sano in the field?  Please, Buxton and Rosario need to be there to cover the ground. 

[sane]

....but yet, the very reason they are classified as average is that they are the most common fruit, and their performances govern and establish the average-ness.

Actually, "average" doesn't mean "common".

If one million people have a 120 IQ, and another one million people have an 80 IQ, the average is a 100 IQ which NONE OF THEM have.

[sane]

Actually, "average" doesn't mean "common".

If one million people have a 120 IQ, and another one million people have an 80 IQ, the average is a 100 IQ which NONE OF THEM have.

It ain't always a bell-curve!

[h2oface]

 

Actually, "average" doesn't mean "common".
If one million people have a 120 IQ, and another one million people have an 80 IQ, the average is a 100 IQ which NONE OF THEM have.

 

That is true. But I think the example you use only happens in politics. Usually, or more commonly, the bell does ring and it does work out, on the average, to most often tend toward the  "common".

Edited November 12, 2015 by h2oface

[Reider]

 

Here are some random thoughts: (apologize if these have already been brought up, but this thread is updating fast...)

4) He doesn't have pull power - all of his homers last year (there were only 3) were to left-center or opposite field. Is that power going to play in Target Field? Here is his spray chart from the past two season: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=10346&position=C&type=battedball&pid2=10346&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2015&se2=2015&cht1=hittype&cht2=hittype&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

Overall, I can see this trade going a lot of ways. Judging it right now, I think I'm a little disappointed, as my gut thinks that Hicks is going to take a big step forward at the plate in the next couple of seasons. 

This is actually a good thing because it's much easier to teach a player to pull the ball for power than it is to hit opposite field for power. I know this based on things I have read and also from personal experience.

[sane]

That is true. But I think the example you use only happens in politics. Usually, or more commonly, the bell does ring and it does work out, on the average, to most often tend toward the  "common".

And what you just said is also true...."Normal" distribution.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Hicks was a head-case. I'm glad he's gone.

 

I don't necessarily see Hicks flaking out Knoblauch-style, but New York is probably a VERY bad fit for him. Time will tell, I guess.

[h2oface]

Playing center field for the Twins since Torii Hunter roamed, is like playing keyboards for the Grateful Dead - it doesn't go as far as you don't make it out alive, but it is the kiss of death to your longevity, and you are bound to be traded once you get ready to evolve or have evolved into becoming what you were brought here to do.

Edited November 12, 2015 by h2oface

[Winston Smith]

I think Aoki would be a good pick up after this. Good OBP guy which we can really use.

[sane]

I think Aoki would be a good pick up after this. Good OBP guy which we can really use.

Does he speak Korean?

[jokin]

 

 

We always berate Ryan for not taking chances and here he is taking chances and we still are not happy.

 

I wish Ryan would actually take chances on upside.  Murphy pretty much is what he is. And how much did Yankee Stadium inflate his hitting?

 

Quite a bit.

 

Yankee Stadium: wRC+ 105 OPS .749

Away Games:  wRC+ 71 OPS .623

 

This looks like more Metrodome budget-ball soon-to-be-expensive player spin-off. The road map suggests that Murphy was primarily acquired to be certain that he merits and gets just enough PAs to guarantee that Suzuki's option doesn't vest, and not much more.

 

Let's break this down more simply.  The Twins traded an uncertain, but still, a former 1st rounder and starting, decent-defending, CF- who finally showed glimpses of realizing his full potential.... for, so far anyway, only a back-up catcher with little upside behind the plate? In what world is that a good trade? This created more uncertainty in the OF, while failing to significantly upgrade the glaring deficit at the catcher position.  How did the Twins not get a decent bullpen arm thrown into this trade, at minimum?

 

Just a bad move. (And I'm writing this as one of HIcks' biggest critics.  I hope I'm completely wrong on Murphy and he excels and somehow takes the job from Zuke, but if the Yanks see their way to giving Hicks 500 PAs, he has the potential to be a 20-20 producer in that park.)

[T.C.]

A.J. has signed back with the Braves. Was he thinking about joining the Twins then when the trade happened he went back to Atlanta? or was the timing a coincidence?

[gunnarthor]

 

A.J. has signed back with the Braves. Was he thinking about joining the Twins then when the trade happened he went back to Atlanta? or was the timing a coincidence?

No, I think he was probably deciding between the two.

[Vanimal46]

A.J. has signed back with the Braves. Was he thinking about joining the Twins then when the trade happened he went back to Atlanta? or was the timing a coincidence?

Won't know for sure, but I would assume there were discussions between AJ's agent and the Twins. It would be interesting to know who said "Thanks, but we're going to pass" first.

[Squirrel]

 

I don't necessarily see Hicks flaking out Knoblauch-style, but New York is probably a VERY bad fit for him. Time will tell, I guess.

Yeah ... I was thinking that, too. Don't want to wish it on him, or anyone, but that place can make you, but it can also really break you.

 

I just wish we were able to get a better piece in return. But ... I'll have to be patient to see it all put into place.

 

Btw ... I am HUGE fan of your user name!

[Blackjack]

Span or any other competent outfielder isn't going to sign with the Twins with Buxton only a few months away.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Yeah ... I was thinking that, too. Don't want to wish it on him, or anyone, but that place can make you, but it can also really break you.

 

I just wish we were able to get a better piece in return. But ... I'll have to be patient to see it all put into place.

 

Btw ... I am HUGE fan of your user name!

 

Ah, thank you.

 

I've been a happy Twins Daily lurker forever, but this eventful (so far) offseason made me want to join in a bit.   

[Squirrel]

 

Ah, thank you.

 

I've been a happy Twins Daily lurker forever, but this eventful (so far) offseason made me want to join in a bit.   

Welcome aboard! Sometimes just jumping in is the best way to go!

[T.C.]

 

Span or any other competent outfielder isn't going to sign with the Twins with Buxton only a few months away.

Why not? Having Buxton to my right or left would be a selling point.

[jokin]

 

League average catcher is still a huge improvement over a below replacement level Suzuki. 

 

Taking bets on who gets the most PAs in 2016....

[LewFordLives]

For those wishing for a reunion with Denard Span, I think there is a 0.0001 percent chance of that happening. Can he even play cf anymore? He's 32 and recovering from hip surgery. I find it telling that the Nats wouldn't make him a qualifying offer. And from Span's point of view, this is probably his last chance at a multiyear deal, which I don't think would fit in with the Twins long run plans. I suspect the Twins will stay with their internal options.

[Minniman]

 

 Not in my book. I love baseball too much to buy that, no matter how many loving fans become haters. Especially when in many cases, it was the management's inability to adapt that was the problem, and not the players. I don't think my children are my enemy when the leave either, and they did it by choice, and were not even involuntarily traded.      I find the players that I follow for 4, 5 and 6 years in the minors way more family than guys like Phil Hughes and Nolasco, for example.

 

I don't see it that way. I want players the Twins trade for to do well and players they trade away to bust rather than the other way around.

 

I do check in on the ex-Twins players from time to time, but that is likely because I believe they will do better than what we got for them, and I want to have evidence that the GM, manager, and hitting coach couldn't figure it out.

 

In the long run, I'd rather have a front office that knows how to deal than hold a special place for players that did not contribute for the Twins. For veteran players that leave via free-agency or forced a trade, there is little love lost. Carew doesn't count because the Twins wanted him to play for peanuts.

[jimmer]

A Dave Cameron story was linked about this earlier.   Here's one from Jeff Sullivan focusing on Hicks.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/three-keys-to-understanding-aaron-hicks/

 

[jimmer]

 

I don't see it that way. I want players the Twins trade for to do well and players they trade away to bust rather than the other way around.

 

 

I don't think he ever stated he wanted the players the Twins traded for to bust, just that there are some Twins that go to other teams he wants to see do well.