Article: Twins Trade Aaron Hicks To Yankees For Catcher

[gunnarthor]

 

The chances Ryan takes is for middling talent. I think trading a budding everyday outfielder for a platoon backup catcher is taking the wrong kind of chance. With the pitchers that Ryan collects, the outfield needs to be defensive, and not lumbering bats.

Defensively, the Twins probably upgrade from Hicks to Buxton.

[d-mac]

 

and rightfully so.  The Fangraphs article makes  a compelling case why this was a good trade for Cashman .  Here is part of it.

 

'From the Twins perspective, they land a young catcher who also has shown signs of putting up decent offensive production at an up the middle position, but I’m a little more skeptical that he’ll retain his offensive value going forward. Murphy possesses less power than Hicks, but doesn’t offset that with better contact skills, nor has he shown the willingness to take pitches in order to draw walks to keep his on-base percentage up. His decent numbers in part-time play the last two years are BABIP-driven, and as a slow-footed catcher who doesn’t have a remarkable batted ball profile — his infield fly rate is actually higher than average — that shouldn’t be expected to last.

 

So Murphy’s probably more of a below average hitter, with Steamer projecting him as an 85 wRC+ guy in 2016, and not a lot of offensive potential beyond that unless he finds some power he hasn’t yet shown. That’s good enough offense to play in the big leagues — Wilson Ramos has an 85 wRC+ over the last three seasons, for instance — but to be a quality performer, he’d have to be a very good defensive catcher; there’s not a ton of evidence that’s the case, though. Statcorner graded him out as exactly average at pitch framing, and while he throws out a good enough number of baserunners, he doesn’t appear to be anything special at blocking pitches in the dirt'

 

League average catcher is still a huge improvement over a below replacement level Suzuki. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

It's like every day is Christimas right now.

 

My thoughts:

 

1)  Somewhat on the fence.  I'd have rather had Norris or Lucroy.  I'm guessing the ask there was pretty high.  Trading Hicks may come back to bite us, but I think the same could be said for the Yankees about this kid.  I'd have waited a year on Hicks, but the Twins know him better than we do and may have realized that they've done about all they can do for him.

 

2)  BABIP is probably overstated.  His is .350.  Isn't the league average about .330?  If so, we are talking aobut a few extra hits a year... nothing to worry too much about.  Regression isn't the issue.

 

3)  He posted a .732 OPS last season.  That's well above average for a catcher.  He's also gots lots of control and is 2 years younger than Hicks.  More question marks than Norris or Lucroy, but a good add.

 

4)  Given how fragile Hicks seems to be mentally (and that's an appearance, not necessarily a fact), I really have to wonder how he's going to handle the NY media.  I cannot imagine that going well at all. 

 

I do think this means that as far as Ryan is concerned, catching is addressed for this year.  Like it or not, he's going to focus on RP help.  It also may mean that Sano really will be in RF.  Not quite certain I like that. 

[whydidnt]

 

 

We always berate Ryan for not taking chances and here he is taking chances and we still are not happy.

Well for me, it's not that I don't think he won't take chances. He does all the time. My problem is that he almost always takes chances on low-upside guys, just like Murphy. The pitchers we have signed over the last couple of years almost by definition were guys that we took a chance on, but none of them really had any chance of being much better than average. My opinion is that he's risk adverse. That isn't always a bad thing, but I think he takes it to the extreme when building a team.

 

Even Ryan didn't expect the Twins to win the bidding for Park, who on the service appears to be in conflict with my previous paragraph. Based upon his reaction to winning the bidding process, I think he was hoping to give us another, we tried, but couldn't get him statement. 

[Shane Wahl]

Fangraphs is all over this trade calling it a nice move for the Yankees. Highly dubious offensive potential for Murphy.

 

This team has had an irrational hatred for Hicks for three years now. And it is IN LOVE with Plouffe.

Haha, Robinson-Rosario-Sano as your starting OF, folks. Arcia-Rosario-Sano offers some comedic elements on the other side as well. Oh, the possibilities . . .

[Shane Wahl]

I get the impression that when unexpected things happen, Ryan panics and starts making moves haphazardly.

 

Clete Thomas hits left-handed . . .

[Hrbowski]

 

I get the impression that when unexpected things happen, Ryan panics and starts making moves haphazardly.

 

Clete Thomas hits left-handed . . .

Oh brother...

[Blackjack]

I think its a good trade. They get a catcher that can platoon with Suzuki, maybe even start and hold the position until the young catchers Turner or Garver emerge. Hicks had few bright spots, good defense but spotty hitthing, I think hes going to end up a platoon player. 

 

Murphy and Hicks both have some upside but both could end up being platooners. It will be years before a winner of the trade can be declared.

[RedBull34]

I think I made this trade in OOTP once...

[dbminn]

 

Small sample size but Murphy was 35th in 2014 and 39th in 2015 (out of 100+ catchers to record an inning) and Suzuki was 90th in 2015. He's a HUGE upgrade in that department. Suzuki was an absolute black hole last year with all things considered. 

 

I was looking at the PerGame column. Suzuki saw a lot more pitches than Murphy. totals were -0.01/-0.07 extra strikes per game. That is neutral. Where are you getting 90th place? That must be for 2014. In 2015, he's ranked right behind Murphy. (That may be my fault, if I linked to 2014 instead of last year)

 

[tobi0040]

 

Hicks has had one good half a season. I think it's worth the shot, which barring moves means Buxton will start in CF

 

This is where I am at too.  Hicks was probably the or one of the worst players in the big leagues in 2013 and 2014.  His "breakout" 2015 was a .721 OPS, which was below the .734 OPS Ryan put up as a catcher.

 

We have plenty of OF depth and zero catcher depth.  I am guessing Terry has talked to MIL about Lucroy, SD about Hedges, etc and found the asking price was really, really high.  High to the point where these boards would have been irate had we went through with it.   So we got a bat that is equal or better at a position in need.  I sense a little dissapointment in the upgrade at catcher, but that is the reality of the position IMO.

[Vanimal46]

 

I think I made this trade in OOTP once...

 

I'll test this trade out in MLB The Show tonight... Will report in with results later. 

[SF Twins Fan]

I think this is a solid trade for the Twins. This hurts to depth of the outfield but hopefully these prospects (Buxton, Rosario and Kepler) turn out to be as good as they project to be. I don't think Hicks was as good as some people think. He basically had 1 great month this past season and then reverted back toward what he had done in the past. 

 

John Ryan Murphy could fill a void the Twins desperately need to fill at catcher. He plays average defense, throws out would be base stealers at a league average clip (which is much better than Suzuki) and has a better bat than Suzuki. 

 

This trade could mean the Twins will try and sign a FA outfielder and I think that would make sense if they could sign one to a 1 or 2 year deal.  D Span wouldn't be a bad option if they could sign him to a 1 year deal. He's good defensively, a good hitter and would be a good leadoff hitter for the Twins. 

 

The lineup could look like this to start the season:

 

1. Span CF

2. Mauer 1B

3. Dozier 2B

4. Sano RF

5. Park DH

6. Plouffe 3B

7. Rosario LF

8. Murphy C

9. Escobar

 

Bench of Suzuki, Santana, Arcia and another utility IF or OF. The Twins would have a backup for everyone and it would give the Twins more options to make trades during the season (Plouffe), which would move Sano to 3B and if Buxton is ready move him to CF, Span to LF and Rosario to RF since he has a stronger arm than Span. 

[Mike Sixel]

"likely" outcome is average catcher? Even though Sickels, FG, and others say likely role player?

[jimmer]

Hicks had a BABIP of .285 with his .721 OPS.  Ryan's .734 OPS was slightly higher and had a BABIP of .357.

Edited November 11, 2015 by jimmer

[AWOLNATION_11]

So based on a lot of the comments everyone was sold on 2015 being Hicks turning the corner?  Not just 1 good month of July?

[jorgenswest]

Catching is expensive. In a trade of a CF for a catcher, the centerfielder is going to be the better offensive player. That Hicks projects better offensively than his return at catcher should be expected.

 

The trade is fair. They are not going to get Sanchez for Hicks. The Twins need catching a lot more than center field. Murphy helps. They still need catching.

Edited November 11, 2015 by jorgenswest

[Blake]

I have to believe this means the Twins are expecting either Arcia or Kepler to play right with Robinson as the late inning defensive replacement.

 

Unless a Cuddyer reunion is on the offing. (I am so glad I'm not where people can throw things at me for making such a suggestion...pipe down over there, it's a joke...right?)

[jimmer]

 

So based on a lot of the comments everyone was sold on 2015 being Hicks turning the corner?  Not just 1 good month of July?

There is no consensus on it whatsoever.  There are some who believe that Hicks was starting to turn the corner and that, along with his defense, made some of us believe much better days are to come for him.

[DocBauer]

I can't read pages 3 & 4 for some reason right now, so forgive me if I miss something pertinent while posting this.

 

I don't know enough about Murphy to really comment on him or make a final decision on the trade AT THE MOMENT. However, I think it is a bit silly and perhaps disingenuous to attempt to criticize the deal at this point. Hicks is young enough and talented enough to continue developing, and in a couple of years, we may regret giving him up. On the other hand, Murphy is even younger, a former 2nd round pick, and obviously possesses some skills/talent to work with. Neither is overly experienced, Murphy the less so.

 

You have to look at the trade as a NOW, because that's all we can base it on, and is reality. Despite big improvements from Hicks last season, his bat and power potential remain question marks. Right NOW, he's good defensively with a little pop, good speed, and can hit lefties but not righties very well. Murphy fills a need...though he's not exactly what I was hoping or expecting. But if he is bright and good at calling games and working with pitchers, it's not inconceivable he could frame better, throw better and hit better than Suzuki right now, with room to grow. (And I say this with respect to Suzuki who is a real gamer and respected by his teammates)

 

Have an opinion, please, but I think we have a surplus of OF overall, have a need at catcher, and this early on, it's a bit naive to attempt to grade a move like this.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Just FYI, among catchers with more than 150 PAs, Murphy was 20th last year in OPS.

Of course, Murphy also ranks 20th in that group in PAs.  Also 3rd highest BABIP, #29 in ISO, and #37 (out of 54) in K/BB ratio.

 

Pinto was 21st by OPS among catchers in 2014.  (Obviously wouldn't have been a problem if he could have played catcher in 2015!)

[Darius]

 

I think it's a fair trade at face value, if Hicks can ever figure out how to be average vs RHP he will be a very good player overall. Murphy is a nice bridge to Turner/Garver/Navaretto if he doesn't improve any further. When you can't hit RHP it really diminishes your value, I think some fans are forgetting this about Hicks.

 

Balances the roster nicely, I still hope Plouffe is moved to keep Sano out of the OF. Love the thought of Rosario/Buxton/Kepler.

 

I also really like the thought of Rosario/Buxton/Kepler.  I want that to be the outfield of 2017.  But, what does the outfield look like if Buxton and Kepler start in AAA?  How about when Buxton gets hurt again (you know its coming)?  

 

The first two months of the season count in the standings as much as the last two.  The Darren Mastrionis and Clete Thomases of the world, which they always end up plugging in to avoid service time and whatever else, will have this team buried in the division before those guys get the chance to see the field.  What good is bringing in Murphy over Hermann, then?    

 

Is it wrong to trade Hicks?  No, absolutely not.  It probably has to be done eventually.  Is it wrong to trade Hicks right now, for this guy?  Yes, absolutely in my opinion.  

 

I can't figure out how meh-hitting back-up catcher with marginal defense = above average defensive CF with a little pop and speed on the bases.  I think they overpaid.  

Edited November 11, 2015 by Darius

[whydidnt]

 

Catching is expensive. In a trade of a CF for a catcher, the centerfielder is going to be the better offensive player. That Hicks projects better offensively than his return at catcher should be expected.

The trade is fair. They are not going to get Sanchez for Hicks. The Twins need catching a lot more than center field. Murphy helps. They still need catching.

Agree 100%. My complaint is that it seems we set our sites too low. Maybe it's not the end of the Catcher acquisitions, but I think it is. I would have rather they held onto Hicks as an insurance/platoon option or packaged him with a more valuable piece to land someone we could really count on at C. 

[Platoon]

I cannot see anyway Kepler starts here in spring, and in today's Trib Rob Anthony already alluded to Buxton possibly starting in Rochester when he said the Twins had options in CF like Danny Santana. I would not be at all stunned to see an OF of Rosario, DanSan, and Sano. Starting Buxton in Rochester for service time I can understand, but I simply do not get the Sano thing at all. Athletic, sure. But to expect him to learn the OF in spring? Maybe there's a secret plan to bring Arcia back?

[Darius]

 

Have an opinion, please, but I think we have a surplus of OF overall, have a need at catcher, and this early on, it's a bit naive to attempt to grade a move like this.

 

I'm not as worried about this trade 2-3 years from now, as I am looking at the first month of the 2016 season.  They have to be bringing in another outfielder.  I really can't see them opening up with any of Arcia, Kepler, Ortiz, or Sano starting in the OF.  There really aren't another other options at the corners. 

[DaveW]

This is such a god awful trade, Ryan got completely fleeced once again.

[Willihammer]

TR is on fire! 3/3 in my book.

 

Hicks was growing on me but a rebalancing was coming one way or another. They needed to do this and Murphy is as good a target as any IMO. Good trade.

[jimmer]

 

 

 

Have an opinion, please, but I think we have a surplus of OF overall, have a need at catcher, and this early on, it's a bit naive to attempt to grade a move like this.

people have expressed their opinion like you said they should and some got this opinion of their opinion from you 'I think it is a bit silly and perhaps disingenuous to attempt to criticize the deal at this point.'  

[twinsnorth49]

Well, not the catcher upgrade I was personally hoping for but higher end options are limited and we don't know the possible asking prices. I'm satisfied Murphy can potentially fill the need for the Twins, being 24 has some upside. He'll  likely hit better than Suzuki and he'll definitely provide better defense.

 

I was starting to like Hicks more and more actually, but I was never quite convinced he was going to be able to really hold down a corner OF spot, especially with his left side struggles. I'm intrigued as to what the 2nd phase of this trade might mean from the OF perspective. With Hunter retiring, Hicks traded and Buxton almost surely to start the 2016 season in AAA, that leaves Rosario as our only returning outfielder from 2015, seems like Span/Revere 2.0. Maybe the Sano talk is more real than we think, unless a lot is still yet to come.

 

Buckle up.

 

 

Nobody got taken on this trade, neither player is, or will be, good enough for that to be the case, imo.

[Platoon]

I do hope we did not trade Hicks for a platoon level catcher! But it would fit the Ryan risk adverse model. Mid level deals, mid level risks, mid level success, mid level failures, and needless to say, mid level in the AL!