Article: Twins Trade Aaron Hicks To Yankees For Catcher

[horngary]

Hicks was a head-case. I'm glad he's gone.

[Seth Stohs]

My thoughts:

 

I think this is a good trade for both sides.

 

I think Hicks has the potential to take off, especially in that ballpark. 

Murphy should be the primary starter by about June and could be for several years to come. He can be an average hitting catcher and an average defensive catcher, and if he is, then it's a good deal for the Twins.

 

I'm curious the next phase, but I don't have a  problem with this deal, especially coupled with yesterday's Herrmann for Palka deal.

 

I don't think the Twins are selling low. I think they may be selling high since Hicks really only had the great 6 week stretch followed and preceded by mediocrity. I want him to take off and become a star, but the Twins did fill a big need.

[gunnarthor]

 

Well, here is what Cameron thinks:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yankees-acquire-aaron-hicks-a-potential-bargain/

Didn't make me feel all warm and fuzzy.......

Doesn't seem to be that bad - he thinks Hicks may profile as a league average hitter going forward, not a superstar.  That seems about right.  He's less confident about Murphy's bat but still thinks he has enough skills to be a solid platoon, if nothing else.  That seems like a decent enough best case/worst case scenario.  

 

[nicksaviking]

I think the Twins got the short end of this deal, but we shouldn't be comparing Hicks to Murphy, we should be comparing Hicks to whoever gets his at bats. 

 

The removal of Hicks will probably mean more at bats for Park, Arcia; Kepler and/or Vargas.  It doesn't seem too out of reach for those guys to top Hicks' offensive production.

 

No one has to "win" a trade for it to be a good move.

[T.C.]

 

I also wished Hermann well, and in the thread about trading Plouffe, I said I hope he does well whether he stays with us or not. Nothing wrong with hoping guys succeed even if they leave the team. Or maybe there is for some.

There is when he's going to the f****** yanks!

[formerly33]

 

That's exactly what I did in the first sentence. I said I hope he becomes a superstar.  The second sentence said I thought the trade was bad.  I am not responsible for people reading into two simple sentences.

Whatever. Let's drop the subject, okay? I have no reason to not believe you, so I'll do just that. I guess I was wrong and I apologize. <swallow>

[jimmer]

 

I worry about buying high on BABIP, again.....a lot.

and rightfully so.  The Fangraphs article makes  a compelling case why this was a good trade for Cashman .  Here is part of it.

 

'From the Twins perspective, they land a young catcher who also has shown signs of putting up decent offensive production at an up the middle position, but I’m a little more skeptical that he’ll retain his offensive value going forward. Murphy possesses less power than Hicks, but doesn’t offset that with better contact skills, nor has he shown the willingness to take pitches in order to draw walks to keep his on-base percentage up. His decent numbers in part-time play the last two years are BABIP-driven, and as a slow-footed catcher who doesn’t have a remarkable batted ball profile — his infield fly rate is actually higher than average — that shouldn’t be expected to last.

 

So Murphy’s probably more of a below average hitter, with Steamer projecting him as an 85 wRC+ guy in 2016, and not a lot of offensive potential beyond that unless he finds some power he hasn’t yet shown. That’s good enough offense to play in the big leagues — Wilson Ramos has an 85 wRC+ over the last three seasons, for instance — but to be a quality performer, he’d have to be a very good defensive catcher; there’s not a ton of evidence that’s the case, though. Statcorner graded him out as exactly average at pitch framing, and while he throws out a good enough number of baserunners, he doesn’t appear to be anything special at blocking pitches in the dirt'

[Craig Arko]

I rather liked Hicks. I guess I can wait and see how the new kid does before getting out the tar and feathers.

 

I wonder if Hunter's retirement played into this at all?

[h2oface]

 

Everyone should probably try not to forget that Hicks was unanimously worthless until August 2015. Probably got a good deal in that light.

 

Unanimously, eh? I am on the books as not in on that unanimous bandwagon group thought, so I guess it wasn't and still isn't.

Edited November 11, 2015 by h2oface

[markos]

Here are some random thoughts: (apologize if these have already been brought up, but this thread is updating fast...)

 

1) I don't like trading Hicks just because there is a lot of upside yet. So many hitters figure it out in their late 20s, and he has enough tools to turn into a special player. 

2) That said, he has had almost 1000 PAs in the majors and hasn't shown much yet.

3) JR Murphy has a .350 BABIP in his career so far. So take his current performance with a grain of salt.

4) He doesn't have pull power - all of his homers last year (there were only 3) were to left-center or opposite field. Is that power going to play in Target Field? Here is his spray chart from the past two season: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=10346&position=C&type=battedball&pid2=10346&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2015&se2=2015&cht1=hittype&cht2=hittype&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

5) Kiley McDaniel and Chris Mitchell both liked him as a prospect/rookie last year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/under-the-radar-rookie-hitters-on-contending-teams/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-new-york-yankees/

Mitchell mentioned that based on his projection system Murphy should have been a borderline top-100 prospect. 

6) Baseball Prospectus ranked him as an average framer but below average at blocking pitches.

 

Overall, I can see this trade going a lot of ways. Judging it right now, I think I'm a little disappointed, as my gut thinks that Hicks is going to take a big step forward at the plate in the next couple of seasons. 

 

[h2oface]

 

I read it more as a fan/supported of Hicks, rather than a dig at TR.  Why shouldn't we wish Hicks well?

 

I agree. I like Hicks. I like many of the players the Twins trade more than the ones they keep or trade for. For example, I will never think of Mike Pelfrey as a Twin just because a GM I don't care for makes the mistake of signing him. I think Hicks will become a star, and I also hope he does. I also think that Ryan hasn't learned from the last gutting of a defensive outfield, and the Colabellos and Parmelees and Arcias that replaced them. All that minor league time to hope a prospect gets ready to take a spot in the show, and they continue to be traded or not signed once they get there. It creates teams of strangers instead of family.

[nicksaviking]

 

So Murphy’s probably more of a below average hitter, with Steamer projecting him as an 85 wRC+ guy in 2016, and not a lot of offensive potential beyond that unless he finds some power he hasn’t yet shown. That’s good enough offense to play in the big leagues — Wilson Ramos has an 85 wRC+ over the last three seasons, for instance

 

This trade only excites me in that I think other guys with better offensive upside will get more at bats with Hicks out of the way, but that 85 RC+ doesn't bother me.  I am wholly unimpressed with this generation of catchers.  Only 12 catchers with at least 400 PA had an RC+ of 85 last year.  Only 8 were over 100.  It's not like there were any great upgrades available unless the Giants were dangling Buster Posey.

[Steve Lein]

Yuck.

 

I know the Twins need a catcher, but not him, And not for Hicks.

 

Yuck.

 

 

[whydidnt]

I have no problem dealing Hicks, though I think he offered quite a bit of value to the Twins to start 2016. It would have been nice for the Twins to have flexibility to send Buxton to AAA to start the year and get some seasoning. I'm not thrilled with Murphy as anything more than backup long term though. I'm not convinced he's either a good enough hitter or defender to be anything else. Hope I'm wrong. 

 

IF this is the only move the Twins make to upgrade the C position, I will be disappointed. It seems like another move where the best we aspire to is maybe average. You can't win championships with average players up and down your lineup an that's really where the Twins stand too frequently, and you can add guys like Plouffe, Escobar, Rosario, Mauer, and now Murphy to that list. 

[jsteve96]

i like this trade actually. not a lot but i like it. Hicks had 1 good month and i really don't think he's going to be better than Rosario, Sano, Buxton and Kepler who are all OFers of the future. not a big fan of Sano being there but has to be said. Also with Walker and Palka they may have a power hitting corner OF coming up in the near future

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Now that the dust has settled somewhat, and we're all ready to throw dirt on Murphy apparently, it seems clear that Murphy isn't our catching upgrade. He's an upgrade over Hermann, and maybe there's a smidge of a chance that he fits into our future. I don't think we're done looking for an everyday catcher. I think we're in for a lot of big moves. Which is pretty weird.  

I would be surprised if we acquire an everyday catcher at this point.  Murphy does have option years remaining (two, I think), but I can't imagine they plan to send him down right away.  Could be a catching prospect who has another year to develop, but I got a feeling Murphy is the starting/platoon hope for 2016.

[nicksaviking]

Also, as Nick mentioned in his OP, this move likely means the Yankees don't re-sign Chris Young.  If the Twins go after him instead of Robinson and make him the 4th/platoon guy, I'll love this move.  He hits lefties better than Hicks does. Better than nearly everyone actually.

 

And sorry to repeat myself with the Chris Young-as-a-bench-bat love.  I can't remember which threads I've been in.

[Wookiee of the Year]

I actually think the trade itself is a pretty good one--as others have pointed out, Murphy out-hit Hicks each of the past two years, and is one year younger.

 

The disappointment--for me, at least--is that I was hoping the Twins would upgrade catcher in a big way this offseason, and this isn't it.

 

On a micro level, it's a good trade. On a macro level, it's underwhelming.

[sane]

Murphy was the Yankees 4th highest rated prospect in 2014 according to Baseball America:

 

4. J.R. Murphy, c

 

J.R. MurphyBorn: May 13, 1991. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 195. Drafted: HS—Bradenton, Fla., 2009 (2nd round). Signed by: Jeff Deardorff/Brian Barber.

Background: Signed for $1.25 million as a second-round pick in 2009, Murphy played both catcher and third base early in his career but has become a durable option behind the plate. He caught a minor league-leading 105 games in 2013 while having his best offensive season, and he made his major league debut in September. Murphy was behind the plate at Yankee Stadium for Mariano Rivera’s final major league pitch.

Scouting Report: Murphy doesn’t have a plus tool, but he has sharpened his skills in the minors. After years of hard work, he improved his footwork and his release in 2013, which contributed to gunning down 48 percent of basestealers at Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He’s become a much better, quieter receiver, though he can get a little bit stabby behind the plate at time. His line-drive bat produces consistent solid contact to the gaps with fringe-average power, and the Yankees project him as a potential future .280 hitter with 10-12 homer power. He’s become a below-average runner.

[Dman]

I don't love the trade but don't hate it either.  My only problem with Hicks is I don't think he is ever gonna hit from the left side.  He has had a lot of time to figure it out and I don't see it happening.  

 

I do see more potential in Hicks than Murphy but I think we need more promise at catcher than outfield where we have several guys coming up.  It didn't seem like Hicks was ever gonna have a future in center field for us.

 

We always berate Ryan for not taking chances and here he is taking chances and we still are not happy.

[Darius]

 

Murphy out-hit Hicks both of the last two seasons and he's 2 years younger than Hicks.

 

What do you mean by out-hit?  Average? He has a career K/BB ratio of nearly 4 to 1 (Hicks = 2 to 1).  He as 4 home runs in 115 career games (Hicks had 11 in less than 100 last year). 

 

Hicks had over double the number of plate appearances last year, four times as many in his career, and played in a park that is much less hitter friendly, and the numbers are pretty darn close.  I'm scared to revisit their numbers at the end of this coming season.  If Hicks is the starting CF in Yankee Stadium all year, he'll put up some good numbers (power and speed included - neither of which Murphy has), plus give them some very good defense (which Murphy can't do, judging by his metrics).  Very good possibility he's a 20/20, with good OB% at .260 or so.  I thought he'd get there next year in TF.  

 

The more I dig into it, the more this move confuses me.  Is the premium on catchers really that huge right now?  Especially for one that is certainly not, or barely, above average defensively?

 

The only thing this guy really has going for him is he throws out runners at an OK clip, and the Twins need that.  But, you can find mutiple guys to fill that roll in free agency for 2-4 million dollars (Chris Iannetta, for example, makes $5M, and he hits for power.  Mathis makes $1.5 and might control the running game better than anyone but Yadier).  I hope TR knows something that we don't, here.  Because it looks like he just hosed by Cashman.  Yankees fans sure seem to be thrilled.

 

[h2oface]

I can't wait to see Murphy in the outfield. Rumor has it, he will be working out with Sano and shagging fly balls......... Joe Mauer is jealous.

[Lefty74]

Personally I do not like the trade. While it was a small sample size it appeared that a switch flipped inside Hicks late in the year. He carried himself differently, took very good AB's, seemed focused and started to realize his potential. I'm very concerned that we traded him just as he turned the corner and that the trade is going to turn out one sided--the wrong way! Time will tell and hope Murphy is better than forecast because I think Hicks will be a very good player for years to come.

[gunnarthor]

Seems like Yankee fans are split as well 

 

http://www.pinstripealley.com/2015/11/11/9715710/john-ryan-murphy-trade-yankees-twins-aaron-hicks#comments

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Unanimously, eh? I am on the books as not in on that unanimous bandwagon group thought, so I guess it wasn't and still isn't.

Well EXCUUUUUSE ME!

 

[Trevor0333]

I think it's a fair trade at face value, if Hicks can ever figure out how to be average vs RHP he will be a very good player overall. Murphy is a nice bridge to Turner/Garver/Navaretto if he doesn't improve any further. When you can't hit RHP it really diminishes your value, I think some fans are forgetting this about Hicks.

 

Balances the roster nicely, I still hope Plouffe is moved to keep Sano out of the OF. Love the thought of Rosario/Buxton/Kepler.

[nicksaviking]

I wonder about the timing the the Hicks and Herrmann trades now.  The Twins almost certainly knew they were getting Murphy when they traded Herrmann yesterday, hindsight makes it pretty easy to deduce that the Twins didn't first get rid of their back up catcher and THEN go searching for a new catcher.

 

So why was this one announced last?  It seems that either the Twins didn't want AZ to know that Chris Herrmann was about to become expendable, or the Yankees gave the Twins a take-it-or-leave-it offer and told Ryan he could think on it. 

 

I also wonder if Ryan asked for Gary Sanchez and was told no, or if Ryan actually valued Murphy's MLB experience (or some other factor) more and he was the preferred target?

[nytwinsfan]

Just FYI, among catchers with more than 150 PAs, Murphy was 20th last year in OPS. And at least one of the 19 ahead of him--Schwarber-- is not really a catcher. Combine that with the fact that he is only 24 (which for a catcher is still pretty young) and by all accounts has at least average defense, and it is really a stretch to claim that he is only a "backup" catcher. This guy has a likely outcome as a league average catcher, with some upside and some downside. But he also is 2 years younger than Hicks and has 1 more year of control.  Plus he is at a position the Twins really really need to improve at. Is it a great trade? Clearly not. But I do think it is one of those trades where it is fuzzy who got the better deal.  For all his performance last year, Hicks never showed he could hit right-handed pitching. A plus defender in CF who can hit lefties is obviously a good player, but unless he can hit RHP, which the Twins I think concluded he would not, his upside is limited.

[d-mac]

 

According to BP (by way of FanGraphs), he's supposed to be an above average pitch framer. By last year's StatCorner data, he's neutral.

 

RE: Suzuki and pitch framing. In 2014, he was bad. By 2015 data, he was neutral.

 

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

 

Small sample size but Murphy was 35th in 2014 and 39th in 2015 (out of 100+ catchers to record an inning) and Suzuki was 90th in 2015. He's a HUGE upgrade in that department. Suzuki was an absolute black hole last year with all things considered. 

[h2oface]

 

We always berate Ryan for not taking chances and here he is taking chances and we still are not happy.

 

The chances Ryan takes is for middling talent. I think trading a budding everyday outfielder for a platoon backup catcher is taking the wrong kind of chance. With the pitchers that Ryan collects, the outfield needs to be defensive, and not lumbering bats.