Article: Twins Trade Aaron Hicks To Yankees For Catcher

[jimmer]

From today's Fangraphs chat:

 

Q:'There’s lots of talk in NY about the Yankees trading Brett Gardner because he’s a LHB in a LHB heavy lineup that has slumped in the 2nd half for 2 consecutive seasons. But isn’t Gardner a valuable player signed to an affordable contract regardless of when he’s valuable and from what side of the plate? Or is he talked about because folks really want to trade Ellsbury, but can’t,so they take out their trade frustration on the next person sufficiently that resembles Ellsbury?'

Jeff Sullivan: 'Gardner’s 32 now, and he’s not *cheap*, and Hicks can do a pretty good job of being a similar player given the chance.'

 

Similar to Gardner is good player.

Edited November 13, 2015 by jimmer

[jsteve96]

the Twins could get Clayton Kershaw for Berrios and Twins fans would still think its a bad move, thats just how MN fans are. We love being negative

Edited November 13, 2015 by jsteve96

[jimmer]

 

the Twins could get Clayton Kershaw for Berrios and Twins fans would still think its a bad move, thats just how MN fans are. We love being negative

I can see where you see people talking about their issues with Hicks for Murphy trade and equate it to a Kershaw for Berrios trade, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that idea is downright ridiculous.

Edited November 13, 2015 by jimmer

[kab21]

 

From today's Fangraphs chat:

 

Q:'There’s lots of talk in NY about the Yankees trading Brett Gardner because he’s a LHB in a LHB heavy lineup that has slumped in the 2nd half for 2 consecutive seasons. But isn’t Gardner a valuable player signed to an affordable contract regardless of when he’s valuable and from what side of the plate? Or is he talked about because folks really want to trade Ellsbury, but can’t,so they take out their trade frustration on the next person sufficiently that resembles Ellsbury?'

Jeff Sullivan: 'Gardner’s 32 now, and he’s not *cheap*, and Hicks can do a pretty good job of being a similar player given the chance.'

 

Similar to Gardner is good player.

I think Jeff Sullivan might be jumping the gun a little on this one.  Hicks had a great month, an okay month and 3 awful months.  This was how almost every season went in the minors also and the LHB question is still there.  Perhaps he becomes a really good player like Gardner but that lacks the certainty stated above.

[Riverbrian]

On the surface the trade makes sense. Quite simple actually... Trade from a position of depth to acquire a position of need.

 

However... That is exactly how you end up with a Ramos for Capps type deal.

 

I'm willing to give "ran calling wildfire" Murphy a chance so I'm not upset with the deal but it has a Ramos for Capps feeling for me right now.

[kab21]

Murphy is nothing like Capps.  Capps was old, mediocre and going to be a FA.

[Riverbrian]

Murphy is nothing like Capps.  Capps was old, mediocre and going to be a FA.

Murphy won't be asked to close games either and they spell and pronounce their names totally different and they probably have different tastes in music.

 

However... In terms of upside?

[kab21]

 

Murphy won't be asked to close games either and they spell and pronounce their names totally different and they probably have different tastes in music.

However... In terms of upside?

Upside is that he improves and hits like he did last year and develops into an above average defender that isn't a FA for 5 more years.  Capps is more like Jepsen.  Guys that are placeholders for 1 or 2 seasons until something better comes along.

[Paul]

 

On the surface the trade makes sense. Quite simple actually... Trade from a position of depth to acquire a position of need.

However... That is exactly how you end up with a Ramos for Capps type deal.

I'm willing to give "ran calling wildfire" Murphy a chance so I'm not upset with the deal but it has a Ramos for Capps feeling for me right now.

Sometimes a lack of inference can be truly startling.

 

I agree 100% with your take, by the way.

 

As a matter of fact, it smells like the Gomez to Hardy to zero thing to me.

Edited November 15, 2015 by Paul

[Halsey Hall]

My first thought when the trades was announced was "Oh NO! Now we keep Ploof". I was so hoping Ploof would bring back some catching help, and could have.  Now this morning listening to TR with Dave and Sid, Ploof isn't going anywhere.  Going by what TR said, Ploof is locked in at 3rd base.  He said the plan is for Sano to play right field.  Sano is about to start getting playing time there now.  There's been talk here on Ploof playing outfield but as I've stated over and over, he's slow. He can't play outfield without a huge dropoff.  So, TR also sees Sano as the better athlete.  Sano should be at 3rd base IMO.  Just maybe, when Buxton does join the team, Ploof will be dealt.

 

About the only thing I liked in this interview was the fact that TR, when asked about Max in AAA, TR said not at all the plan. He heaped praise on Kepler and said he'd have a good shot at making the team and can play all 3 outfield positions.  

 

So, when, and if, Buxton and Max do join the team, Ploof will have to go!  I can't wait. 

[jimmer]

Well I rarely if ever believe anything TR says when he says it (because you can only get burned so many times), but I hope we keep Plouffe, myself.

Edited November 15, 2015 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

My first thought when the trades was announced was "Oh NO! Now we keep Ploof". I was so hoping Ploof would bring back some catching help, and could have.  Now this morning listening to TR with Dave and Sid, Ploof isn't going anywhere.  Going by what TR said, Ploof is locked in at 3rd base.  He said the plan is for Sano to play right field.  Sano is about to start getting playing time there now.  There's been talk here on Ploof playing outfield but as I've stated over and over, he's slow. He can't play outfield without a huge dropoff.  So, TR also sees Sano as the better athlete.  Sano should be at 3rd base IMO.  Just maybe, when Buxton does join the team, Ploof will be dealt.

 

About the only thing I liked in this interview was the fact that TR, when asked about Max in AAA, TR said not at all the plan. He heaped praise on Kepler and said he'd have a good shot at making the team and can play all 3 outfield positions.  

 

So, when, and if, Buxton and Max do join the team, Ploof will have to go!  I can't wait.

 

If this is an accurate portrayal of his comments, then I'm very irritated.

[Hrbowski]

“I was talking with Mac, and he was raving about that young catcher the Twins got,” Boyer said. “From calling a game to receiving, it was unbelievable. Mac doesn’t get crazily excited about people, but he loves (Murphy).” From Berardino's blog.

[Riverbrian]

Upside is that he improves and hits like he did last year and develops into an above average defender that isn't a FA for 5 more years.  Capps is more like Jepsen.  Guys that are placeholders for 1 or 2 seasons until something better comes along.

I get it Kab... I just think Hicks has lots of upside with all those tools. Does he reach the lofty heights? Who knows.

 

However... In all honesty. I was encouraged by Hicks this past season. Yet... He still hasn't shown me that spark of all out play like Rosario did.

[kab21]

 

I get it Kab... I just think Hicks has lots of upside with all those tools. Does he reach the lofty heights? Who knows.

However... In all honesty. I was encouraged by Hicks this past season. Yet... He still hasn't shown me that spark of all out play like Rosario did.

Of course Hicks has upside but I think you are underselling Murphy's upside.  If the Twins end up with a .700 OPS catcher with average to above average defense that catches 120-130 games then this trade is almost certainly a win for the Twins.  It can also be a win for the Yankees.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Of course Hicks has upside but I think you are underselling Murphy's upside.  If the Twins end up with a .700 OPS catcher with average to above average defense that catches 120-130 games then this trade is almost certainly a win for the Twins.  It can also be a win for the Yankees.

 

Or it could be a win-win.  I think the Twins have a high enough floor guy that getting a win for need is likely.  The Yankees have taken on a lot more risk.  On the flip side, if Hicks does figure it out, they get more upside.  The trade makes sense for both teams, even if it isn't the Lucroy we all wanted.

[Shane Wahl]

Murphy's upside is average catcher. They could have signed Soto instead for equal performance, though Soto has some power.

 

Anyway, this Sano to the OF stuff because we love Plouffe is totally ridiculous. Why mess with the team's best hitter at this age? Plouffe is declining in value. Anything after this off-season is likely "selling lower" so why not just do the right thing now?

 

Why is it, honestly, not blatantly better to have one of these scenarios:

Rosario-Hicks-Arcia (with Robinson or Ortiz . . . as 4th OF, while waiting for Buxton and Kepler)

 

or

 

Rosario-Buxton-Hicks, (Arcia DH, Sano full-time 3B, while waiting for Kepler).

 

instead of:

 

X-Rosario-X (where there Xs involve some combination of Sano, Robinson, and Arcia, while Plouffe stays with the team).

 

????

Edited November 16, 2015 by Shane Wahl

[ashbury]

Murphy's upside is average catcher.

Adding in major-league-ready, that is not trivial to acquire.

[Blackjack]

 

My first thought when the trades was announced was "Oh NO! Now we keep Ploof". I was so hoping Ploof would bring back some catching help, and could have.  Now this morning listening to TR with Dave and Sid, Ploof isn't going anywhere.  Going by what TR said, Ploof is locked in at 3rd base.  He said the plan is for Sano to play right field.  Sano is about to start getting playing time there now.  There's been talk here on Ploof playing outfield but as I've stated over and over, he's slow. He can't play outfield without a huge dropoff.  So, TR also sees Sano as the better athlete.  Sano should be at 3rd base IMO.  Just maybe, when Buxton does join the team, Ploof will be dealt.

 

About the only thing I liked in this interview was the fact that TR, when asked about Max in AAA, TR said not at all the plan. He heaped praise on Kepler and said he'd have a good shot at making the team and can play all 3 outfield positions.  

 

So, when, and if, Buxton and Max do join the team, Ploof will have to go!  I can't wait. 

 

I also caught that interview and found it interesting to hear what he had to say about Kepler - "don't count him out".  It will be interesting spring training, seeing if Kepler and/or Buxton hit well enough to make the team out of spring training.

 

I still think its 50/50 on the trading of Plouffe before spring training. What else is TR going to say? If he says 'we're going to trade Plouffe' that will lower his market value.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Murphy's upside is average catcher. They could have signed Soto instead for equal performance, though Soto has some power.

 

This is where we have to disagree.  He's already an average catcher.  Actually, you could argue he's already an above average catcher if you want to ignore his question marks.  He was average to above in all of his minor league stops while being young for the league age.  He has a higher upside than an average catcher, and he's 24..  Yeah, he's not a .850 OPS upside guy with good defense (which is more what Hicks could be if he figures it out), but a .750 OPS C with average to above defense is a well above average catcher and a very real possibility for Murphy.  That's a young Derrek Norris, except that he's major league ready, younger, and has a lot more team control.   I could be wrong, but I believe there were only 4 MLB catchers that cracked an OPS north of .800 last season with the average catcher OPS being around .700.  Murphy has more than an average upside.

[Jham]

 

Murphy's upside is average catcher. They could have signed Soto instead for equal performance, though Soto has some power.

 

What if Soto signed somewhere else?  

 

Anyway, this Sano to the OF stuff because we love Plouffe is totally ridiculous. Why mess with the team's best hitter at this age? Plouffe is declining in value. Anything after this off-season is likely "selling lower" so why not just do the right thing now?

 

Why deal away the team's 3rd best hitter?  Plouffe made a jump forward last season, how is his value declining other than that he's getting older?  His play certainly isn't falling off.  You don't have to "love Plouffe" in order to realize that with 95% confidence, Plouffe + Murphy + Suzuki > Hicks + Suzuki in 2016.

 

Why is it, honestly, not blatantly better to have one of these scenarios:

Rosario-Hicks-Arcia (with Robinson or Ortiz . . . as 4th OF, while waiting for Buxton and Kepler)

 

2 of these players have recent history of hitting below .200.  3 have serious issues staying healthy.  2 are rookies, 2 are on the edge of being considered busts, none project to hit particularly well, and Shane Robinson may well be the best hitting CF out of all those options next year.

 

or

 

Rosario-Buxton-Hicks, (Arcia DH, Sano full-time 3B, while waiting for Kepler).

We lose 50HR from last year's team if we trade Plouffe, about 25 if we don't.  I'd set the O/U for that outfield's OPS at .675 with may 35 combined HR.

 

instead of:

 

X-Rosario-X (where there Xs involve some combination of Sano, Robinson, and Arcia, while Plouffe stays with the team).

 

You conveniently left out Buxton and Kepler which you used in the examples you favored.  Out of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, and Hicks, Hicks is almost certainly the worst of those players offensively.  Is Hicks D that much better than Kepler or Rosario or Sano to warrant keeping him around?  IF Sano can't play OF, IF Arcia can't hit, then we still have Kepler who is probably already a better player than Hicks.  The only scenario I see which favors keeping Hicks over Murphy or Plouffe is if you have completely lost confidence in Buxton and Arcia and Sano as an OF.

????

 

[tobi0040]

 

On the surface the trade makes sense. Quite simple actually... Trade from a position of depth to acquire a position of need.

However... That is exactly how you end up with a Ramos for Capps type deal.

I'm willing to give "ran calling wildfire" Murphy a chance so I'm not upset with the deal but it has a Ramos for Capps feeling for me right now.

 

The Capps for Ramos deal didn't make sense because it was near a wash talent-wise, but you traded a position that you can easily get on the FA market (reliever) for one that you can't.

 

I feel like this is the same in reverse.  We moved a position of depth for us and around the league for probably the position with the least.