Article: Twins Trade Aaron Hicks To Yankees For Catcher

[jsteve96]

i can't believe people actually think Aaron Hicks had more trade value that Eddie Rosario

[DocBauer]

Here's my take:   Aaron Hicks was a different player last year. He hit and fielded like a major league center fielder, but his overall numbers were not quite league average. As noted by many, his LH numbers were below average and every year hitter will face between 2/3 and 3/4 right handed pitchers. If one thinks Aaron Hicks is a top 15 center fielder (offense and defense) the Twins got fleeced. I think Hicks is a marginal starter and would have been replaced by Byron Buxton early in the 2016 season. If Hicks isn't a regular in center, he just doesn't hit enough (especially left handed) to be a regular on an outfield corner. Hicks had more value than a year ago, so Ryan didn't sell low. I'd much rather see Buxton, Rosario, Kepler in the future. For now, the window is open for Arcia to get another shot as a corner outfielder and when his trial is done, perhaps Kepler or maybe even ABW will get a shot. I think that is better than going with Hicks in right or left field.

 

John Ryan Murphy:   He's young, he's cheap, and he's a catcher. Probably the most disturbing thing about Murphy is that he doesn't have All-Star upside. There are no 80 tools, but he profiles to at least get more plate appearances than Herrmann/Fryer and perhaps will be sharing the job or more by midseason. It won't be fair to look at Murphy's numbers compared to Hicks. Look at Murphy's numbers compared to Herrmann/Fryer and Buxton's compared to Hicks.

Great post. More or less what I attempted to say earlier. Neither guy is exactly proven as a finished product yet. The whole "winner-loser" thing is kind of moot at this point. And you're right, Murphy and Hicks should not have their numbers compared to one another. They are different players at very different positions. ( and with very different criteria as to what is average vs above)

[jimmer]

I'll get excited about Rosario's offense when he maintains and OBP over .300 (ended up with a .289 OBP even with a well above average.332 BABIP, though admittedly not as high as John Ryan Murphy's BABIP) ;-)

Edited November 12, 2015 by jimmer

[jokin]

 

Especially one that will likely play significant time and is an upgrade over Suzuki.

 

 

Nice post. Totally agree. I like the trade!!!!!

 

Suzuki played 131 games and had 479 PAs in 2015. Suzuki's option vests if he manages 485 PAs in 2016. Do we really think that Suzuki will not finish somewhere just under the numbers he hit in 2015? Murphy will be hard-pressed to be able to produce more than 0.5 WAR, even in the best-case scenario.

 

Meanwhile, Hicks currently projects to put up 2+ WAR for the Yankees if he gets a full-time gig, higher than that if he gets the CF job, the same as Ellsbury and Gardner. For the Twins to have made this a great trade, they needed a decent bullpen arm as part of the trade, they didn't get anything close to that in return.

 

I just looked up the Cameron article on the trade... the following text isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of the profile that Murphy offers as potential salvation at the catcher position for the Twins:"

 

"Overall, Murphy looks like he likely fits best as a part-time catching option, a guy with enough skills to not be a black hole behind the plate, but probably not a guy deserving of a full-time job. The Twins needed help behind the plate, and this beats paying a lot of money to Matt Wieters or something, but I don’t know that Murphy is going to be more than a decent platoon guy in Minnesota."

[Hugh Morris]

 

 

- If you compete and get someone to fulfill a starting role from a competitive team that did not thing he was good enough to start, you kinda get the feeling you are setting your expectation lower than you should if you are competing.

- There was definitely some friction with Hicks; he was thrown under the bus by Gardenhire and Antony season before last, plus was that whole not-switch hitting thing;  so this might be a trade of the Garza/Lohse/Slowey variety.  I was thinking that with Gardy & Co gone, this mentality would be gone too, but...

Regarding your first point-Neither competitive team traded for a player who was a starter for the 2015 Season. Look, I'm sure if the Twins had Brian McCann, they wouldn't have traded Hicks in order to get Murphy. However, they have Kurt Suzuki. He is... not Brian McCann. Like the Yankees, I'd also rather have McCann than Murphy.

 

Regarding the second point- what mentality that led to the Kyle Loshe trade do you believe should be removed? Should Molitor paint a target on his office door and instruct players to go at it? That was an obvious flashpoint, at least. What was Garza's conflict that led the Twins to trade him-for the #3 prospect in the majors who just finished his rookie year? It's just too bad they traded for Delmon. There was nothing that indicated he might have had personality issues before the Twins acquired him. Just ask minor league umpires. What could Garza have done or demonstrated that would have been worse than throwing your bat at an umpire?

 

Past those qualms, and more generally towards what I've seen posted in the thread- a couple of things I take issue on.

 

1: The sentiment that the Twins made the trade relying only on Murphy's Triple Slash Line. 

I want to assume everyone questioning if the Twins knew about his BABIP was kidding. For anyone who wasn't-is there anything that TR's regime could do to convince you that they are aware of the most elementary 'fancy stats'? I'm genuinely curious what it would take.

 

2: I see Dave Cameron's article has been linked here. It's pretty harsh. I hope this doesn't impact his opinion of the Twins organization. Rumor has it he was consider them as highly as #6org.

 

To avoid this post being only metadiscussion and snark:

 

It appears Hicks may have turned a corner this year as far as his approach and his swing.  That's good to see. On the other hand, pitchers might attack him differently since he was an entirely different batter. Via Brooksbaseball: 

• 2014: 19 of the 227 first pitches he saw in play (8%). He hit .210 on the ones he put in play.
• 2015: 51 of his 377 PAs ended on the first pitch (13%). He hit .333

Hicks' batting average was 14 hits better in 2015 than it was in 2014. The changes on first pitch (both putting the ball in play, and BABIP on first pitches) account for 11 hits... 

 

Hicks' changes might lead to continued success. Or he'll have to adjust again to account for the league making the easiest strategy adjustment possible pitchers ("First pitch is no longer a freebie"). As a rule, I dislike giving up on young toolsy OFs who've shown any promise at the MLB level. I'd also liked to have gotten someone more glamorous than Murphy. On the other hand, Turner and Garver don't appear to be solutions in the near future and I struggle to think of plausibly available backup catchers I'd be excited about. In a market where teams are allegedly offering AJ more than $3m, free agency doesn't appeal much.

 

An unexplored question: This appears to open up the possibility of Arcia on the roster in 2016. Moving forward, would you rather have Murphy+Arcia or Hicks+[Whatever you could trade Arcia for]? Is there a wrong answer to this question?

Edited November 12, 2015 by Hugh Morris

[COtwin]

Super bummed that we might have just given Hicks away to the freakin Yankees.  I really really don't want this to come back and bite us.  Chances are that Hicks crumbles under the pressure there.  Or he buckles down being surrounded by a professional organization, and turns into what I always hoped he would be.  Murphy.  I am going to be cautiously optimistic.  But if it turns out he is a miss and we just traded away yet another starting CF for nothing, then Ryan needs to go.  Murphy needs to pan out, so the "scout" Terry Ryan, can keep up appearances as a talent evaluator.

[Shane Wahl]

I heard a rumor that there are other ways of acquiring a catcher than trading away one of your young players.

[DocBauer]

An opinion and a thought:

 

First, I believe the Twins have a great deal of faith in Turner and Garver as catchers of the future. Personally? I believe Garver will emerge as the starter and Turner an excellent backup.

 

Second, Garver and Turner are not yet ready. Murphy is still young and has options, I believe. Suzuki needs help and is only guaranteed one more year. Fryer and Herrmann are gone. I don't believe the Twins will just toss Pinto aside. But questions remain.

 

Are we so sure the Twins are done looking at the catcher position?

[Shane Wahl]

I heard another rumor that the Twins could have semi-platooned Hicks with Arcia or eventually with Kepler to maximize the bejesus out of RF.

[Shane Wahl]

 

 

An opinion and a thought:

First, I believe the Twins have a great deal of faith in Turner and Garver as catchers of the future. Personally? I believe Garver will emerge as the starter and Turner an excellent backup.

Second, Garver and Turner are not yet ready. Murphy is still young and has options, I believe. Suzuki needs help and is only guaranteed one more year. Fryer and Herrmann are gone. I don't believe the Twins will just toss Pinto aside. But questions remain.

Are we so sure the Twins are done looking at the catcher position?

 

Absolutely sure. They have to be thinking that Garver OR Turner will be ready in 2017. If both, they would deal with figuring out the best two of the three (my money is actually on Garver and Turner).

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

This is actually a good thing because it's much easier to teach a player to pull the ball for power than it is to hit opposite field for power. I know this based on things I have read and also from personal experience.

Like from watching Mauer?

[glunn]

 

I have been a huge fan of this site for sometime, and I feel like its time for me to join in on the comments.

After letting the trade settle in for a few hours, I think this is a fair trade. I have been a huge supporter of Hick though his major league struggles, I wish him the best in NY. But he may end up becoming only a platoon hitter​ 4th outfielder type, or he may figure out how to hit righties someday, who knows. With Buxton's arrival his value may not have been higher.

 

With Murphy he hasn't been given a chance to play everyday, I like to reference Francisco Cervelli as he was a backup for years, and he was given a chance to play this last year. The argument can be made that Cervelli's minor league BABIP could have predicted his success. But that's the beauty of trades and the unknown.

I assume the cost of Lucroy and Norris is out of this world. We saw what a throw away backup catcher netted us in return last night, so I get the cost. A catcher is always going to be more expensive than other positions.

But worst case for both teams is they ​are both a platoon hitter at there respective position, the bright side at least we got a catcher who in his career has thrown out twice as many runner over Suzuki's numbers last year.

 

This is an excellent first post.  I hope that you become a regular.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Lots of other experts aren't so sure that he's much more than that.

 

The BABIP thing might have been more addressed by KLaw...

 

How soon we forget rookies and BABIP.  Danny Santana from .405 BABIP to .290 BABIP in 2015.

Murphy BABIPed at .365 in 2014-15, and his MiLB BABIP is historically much lower than Santana's was. 

 

The 2015 AL average BABIP is .296.  Anyone care to wager or guess which side of .296 BABIP Murphy ends up on in 2016?  I'll take the under...

Speaking of BABIP, what about Rosario then? Where will his BABIP be, and what will his numbers look like if they land south of a .296 BABIP?

 

I was hoping that Hicks would would take turns platooning with Rosario and Arcia, letsing him hit vs RHP every so often to balance out the AB's a bit, depending on who was responding well and who wasn't. Twins seem like they have never been too forward thinking in taking advantage of platoon splits, but more stubborn in their thinking of same guys and same lineups vs any pitcher of any handedness.

[Hugh Morris]

 

Absolutely sure. They have to be thinking that Garver OR Turner will be ready in 2017. If both, they would deal with figuring out the best two of the three (my money is actually on Garver and Turner).

Any particular reasoning behind this? I'm a big Turner guy, and like Garver as well.... but Garver is the same age as Murphy and just put up a worse line in A Ball. Turner's a year younger and put up a worse line in AA ball. If it's defense, Murphy's CS% in AA was better than Turner (or Garver's at A+) and Prospectus had him as the 5th best AAA catcher for pitchframing in 2014.

[GM64]

The NY take, old-school media style.  

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/12/sports/baseball/new-york-yankees-acquire-aaron-hicks-from-minnesota-twins-for-john-ryan-murphy.html?ref=sports&_r=0

 

 

 

[sane]

Any particular reasoning behind this? I'm a big Turner guy, and like Garver as well.... but Garver is the same age as Murphy and just put up a worse line in A Ball. Turner's a year younger and put up a worse line in AA ball. If it's defense, Murphy's CS% in AA was better than Turner (or Garver's at A+) and Prospectus had him as the 5th best AAA catcher for pitchframing in 2014.

 

The highest EITHER Turner or Garver have ever been ranked in the BA Twins Prospect Handbook is 13th by Turner in 2015

Murphy has been ranked as high as 4th in the Yankees list.(18th in 2015)

[jimbo92107]

The Yankees think they can develop Aaron Hicks into another Bernie Williams, and I'm not at all sure it won't happen. I'm sad to see Hick go, but he is more likely to blossom as a hitter in New York than here, much as David Ortiz needed to go to Boston to become Big Papi.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The NY take, old-school media style.  

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/12/sports/baseball/new-york-yankees-acquire-aaron-hicks-from-minnesota-twins-for-john-ryan-murphy.html?ref=sports&_r=0

Fun little summary. Very old school, like you said.

 

Three interesting takeaways:

 

1. The Yankees had been negotiating for Hicks for weeks.

 

2. The Yankees claim they are taking advantage of the Hunter/Hicks mentorship season.

 

3. According to Cashman, the Brian McCann - J R Murphy starter-backup catching relationship was basically like the Favre-Rodgers QB relationship in Green Bay! (spoiler: I shouldn't have given that part away

[Blackjack]

 

True for almost all trades, but particularly in a case like this where the principals are quite young.

So then why all the angst and agony?? Two young guys got traded, both could flop, both could become regulars, or one of each, but only Father Time knows which it will be. 

 

My take is that the Twins filled a position of need from a position where they have lots of depth -- isn't that the ideal way to get it done??

[Blackjack]

 

Absolutely sure. They have to be thinking that Garver OR Turner will be ready in 2017. If both, they would deal with figuring out the best two of the three (my money is actually on Garver and Turner).

 

 

I agree, they're done looking for catchers this year.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I think it's funny that people point to Murphy's OPS without taking into account his BABIP or his home/away splits.

And I think it is funny that people who are purportedly really into BABIP point to home/away splits without taking into account that his home/away splits are being clearly driven by an extremely higher BABIP at home than away (.417 v. .288), but that even just in away games, his OPS was still .699, not that much worse than Joe Mauer's OPS of .718.

Edited November 12, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[jimmer]

 

And I think it is funny that people who are purportedly really into BABIP point to home/away splits without taking into account that his home/away splits are being clearly driven by an extremely higher BABIP at home than away (.417 v. .288), but that even just in away games, his OPS was still .699, not that much worse than Joe Mauer's OPS of .718.

Yes, except I did take it into account because certainly that's why his home numbers were considerable better in BA and OBP.  It's normally how it works. So I agree, I'd find it funny as well if people didn't do take that into account. Not sure anyone failed to do that though.

 

Yes his BABIP was about league average away in his 80 or so PAs. .243 BA/.298 OBP away and he'll be away from NY in Minny. Are we saying that will work?  

 

And what does Mauer have to do with this discussion? It's widely believed Mauer very much underperformed in most areas (though is OBP was still good, though not Mauer like) So saying Murphy's away splits are almost as good as a guy who woefully disappointed last year is hardly a point in Murphy's favor.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2) Someone pointed out Murphy's home/away splits. Ouch. Hard to know how much that matters because the sample size is pretty small, but still...

Statistical noise made to support a negative view of the trade (and this is coming from someone who doesn't care for the trade).

 

Murphy has roughly 140 PAs both at home and on the road. Too small a sample to matter.

 

He has almost identical XBH numbers at home and on the road. Yankee Stadium isn't helping him there.

 

The difference is BA-driven. He has a ~.070 BABIP advantage at home. That's just luck.

 

I see troubling numbers with that BABIP but the home/road splits are statistical noise in a SSS.

[jimmer]

And that's a valid point, Brock, but then again people who are quoting Murphy's OPS as a reason to like this trade are dealing with exactly the same small sample size.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Yes, except I did take it into account because certainly that's why his home numbers were considerable better in BA and OBP.  It's normally how it works. So I agree, I'd find it funny as well if people didn't do take that into account. Not sure anyone failed to do that though.

 

Yes his BABIP was about league average away in his 80 or so PAs. .243 BA/.298 OBP away and he'll be away from NY in Minny. Are we saying that will work?  

 

And what does Mauer have to do with this discussion? It's widely believed Mauer very much underperformed in most areas (though is OBP was still good, though not Mauer like) So saying Murphy's away splits are almost as good as a guy who woefully disappointed last year is hardly a point in Murphy's favor.

I'll respond to your paragraphs one by one.

 

(1) You suggested that there were two reasons Murphy's OPS shouldn't be taken seriously, (a) BABIP and (b his Home/Away splits. My point was that it is ironic/inconsistent to use (a) to criticize my point when (a) also undermines your criticism (b. And it does. As you admit, the home/away splits, which are not minor, are definitely driven largely by BABIP. So if you think BABIP is a good criticism of his OPS because it shows it was luck driven, then it also shows his home/away splits are also luck driven (or unlucky driven for the away splits), and therefore not sustainable. You can't have it both ways.

 

(2) His BABIP was league average away, but it wasn't at home, which is about half his plate appearances. So are you saying to find his true BABIP we should take his home/away splits and choose the lower one? Is that how you calculate "true BABIP" for other players? Of course not. Do you think Yankee stadium leads to a .417 v. .288 BABIP split from home and away? If so, then wow, Yankee stadium is a really really friendlier park for singles and doubles, which were most of his hits.  Also, note that Murphy's ISO was much higher away than it was at home (.159 v. .105). This just goes to show you that these differences between home and away based on even smaller samples than his overall numbers last year are being driven by short-term luck/unluck, not Yankee stadium. The most likely outcome is that his "true BABIP" is somewhere in between .288 and .417, and yes, I admit, probably a bit lower than the .357 BABIP he had last year although not .288. Which brings me to my third point.

 

(3) Mauer is related because I started by comparing Mauer to Murphy and making light of those who call for Mauer to catch but are upset that we traded for someone to catch who had a better OPS than Mauer last year by .15. You criticized this point originally (surprisingly, since I don't think you are one of the ones calling for Mauer to catch again, so I don't know why you would be defensive, but maybe you do think Mauer should catch again afterall). That is why Mauer is relevant. And yes, saying that the worse half of Murphy's splits is almost as good as Mauer's overall performance is relevant and interesting because it shows that even under your strongest assumption (that Murphy will regress to his away splIts -- which I think is pretty unlikely), he is still pretty close to as good as Mauer. Also, I don't agree that it is "widely believed" that Mauer underperformed. According to whom? According to previous years? Sure, but he is a 32-33 year old still obviously dealing with the lingering effects of a concussion.  Another word for "underperformance" may just be "decline." I'm not a Mauer basher, and I hope he returns to his 2013 numbers next year, but I really don't think we should count on it.

Edited November 12, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[Brock Beauchamp]

And that's a valid point, Brock, but then again people who are quoting Murphy's OPS as a reason to like this trade are dealing with exactly the same small sample size.

Absolutely. I hold out hope for two things:

 

1. He flew through the MiLB system, especially considering he's a catcher. There's possibly some upside left in there.

 

2. He hasn't received consistent playing time. Maybe some of that latent upside will emerge with more regular plate appearances.

 

But overall, I'm underwhelmed with the trade. I think it's a relatively close swap of matching talent but it's not the direction I wanted to see Ryan take the team this offseason.

[Shane Wahl]

Ryan was apparently devoted to non-subtraction, though, right? Even Thrylos' suggestion of Brayan Pena would work out better here.

 

There just is no reason to give a Shane Robinson type 100+ PA with this kind of OF depth. Couple that with the potential addition of Sano as an OF defensively and yikes. A lot of subtraction so far.

[Shane Wahl]

 

 

Absolutely. I hold out hope for two things:

1. He flew through the MiLB system, especially considering he's a catcher. There's possibly some upside left in there.

2. He hasn't received consistent playing time. Maybe some of that latent upside will emerge with more regular plate appearances.

But overall, I'm underwhelmed with the trade. I think it's a relatively close swap of matching talent but it's not the direction I wanted to see Ryan take the team this offseason.

 

Yes, this is ultimately the issue. Aside from total leeriness we should all have about trading away CFs, this trade is clearly subtraction given other possible alternatives. I wonder if there was some waiting to see if AJ was interested in returning, and then given the writing on the wall about his return to Atlanta, Ryan was willing to make the trade . . . that the Yankees apparently have REALLY wanted for some weeks.

Buxton, Kepler, and Arcia all have some question marks around them, especially with regard to good and solid production in 2016. But now, to me, it would seem all three of them have to be involved the entire season for any real hope (a bit less of a season for Kepler). Unless Mauer .800+ OPS happens (seriously that would be vital).

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

First, I believe the Twins have a great deal of faith in Turner and Garver as catchers of the future. Personally? I believe Garver will emerge as the starter and Turner an excellent backup.

Murphy is actually younger than Garver, and only about 7 months older than Turner.

 

Murphy has also never posted a season ISO as low as that of Garver (.088) or Turner (.083) last year.  When he played in the same leagues, Murphy posted ISOs of .117 and .163, respectively (and obviously at much younger ages).  And Murphy isn't known for his bat.

 

At this point, I'm not sure how you can pin "catcher of the future" on either Garver or Turner, but not Murphy (except perhaps with "a great deal of faith" as you say ).

[gocgo]

How do you guys feel that Hicks will do under the scrutiny of the NY media/fans?  I don't see this being a good fit for him.  I don't mind the trade, I think it opens the door for Sano at 3rd if we move Plouffe to left and then gives the DH to Park.  It makes sense from that aspect.