Article: Stop Comparing Park To Nishioka

[Nick Nelson]

It was five years ago this month that the Twins were announced as top bidders for Tsuyoshi Nishioka, paving the way for what would pan out as one of the worst high-profile moves in recent franchise history.

 

With Monday's news that the club has won negotiating rights to Byung-ho Park, some local fans are having flashbacks.To some extent, the comparisons are understandable. The two players do have a number of things in common. For instance:

 

1) They hail from the same general area of the planet.

 

Well, actually, that's about it.

 

Park is a sturdy 230 pound power-hitting first baseman from South Korea. Nishioka was a speedy 175 pound slap-hitting middle infielder from Japan.

 

Park has spent his career playing in the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO). Nishioka played in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB). They're completely different leagues, so their statistics are apples and oranges. They can't really be stacked against one another.

 

And even if you wanted to, a quick glance shows that the two players have demonstrated radically different profiles while playing on the other side of the world. Park is a career .281/.387/.564 hitter in KBO and he has smashed 105 home runs while driving in 270 runs over the past two seasons. Nishioka was a career .293/.364/.426 hitter in NPB who was coming off a BABIP-fueled batting title when the Twins acquired him. He had never hit 15 home runs in a season and outside of the big year that preceded his arrival in the United States, he hadn't really been a dominant offensive player in his league. Park's numbers are the very definition of dominant.

 

There's no guarantee that signing Park will work out better than signing Nishioka did, but if he fails it won't be for the same reasons. Nishioka was inadequate defensively and simply could not hit the ball with any kind of authority. Park likely won't play the field much and hitting the ball with authority has been his specialty. His ability to control the strike zone and handle MLB velocity may be in question, but his raw power is not.

 

If there's any takeaway to be drawn from juxtaposing this duo, it would be a positive in my mind. The Twins were burnt badly by the Nishioka signing so you'd like to think they learned some lessons from that entire fiasco. It's hard to imagine that this historically frugal organization would put up $13 million just for the right to negotiate with Park unless they were convinced he was capable of making the transition to the major leagues in a way that Nishioka could not. It also bears noting that Terry Ryan is running the show now rather than Bill Smith. To me, that weighs heavily.

 

If we want to make meaningful comparisons in an effort to predict how things might go for Park, we need to look at players who came from the same league. Unfortunately, the list of position players who have been posted from KBO and signed with an MLB team looks like this: Jung Ho Kang. That's it.

 

The infielder signed last offseason with the Pirates, who posted $5 million and then inked him to a four-year, $11 million contract. Kang went on to hit .287/.355/.461 with 15 homers in 126 games and was in the NL Rookie of the Year conversation before going down with a season-ending injury in September. Obviously, that bodes well.

 

There have been a few other South Korean position players in the majors – Shin-Soo Choo, Rob Refsnyder, Hee-Seop Choi – but all signed in the majors at a young age before playing in KBO. That last name, though, is an interesting one to look at, and not just because Twins fans might not-so-fondly remember him as the guy who took Brad Radke deep three times in a game back in 2005.

 

Choi was somewhat similar to Park in that he was a big slugging first baseman. Although he didn't play in KBO before coming to the majors, he headed there at age 27 after putting up a .240/.349/.437 line with 40 homers in 363 MLB games. Since returning to his home league, Choi has hit .281/.388/.479 in eight seasons. Altogether that's not too much different from his production here, and for what it's worth Choi's strikeout rate in MLB (24 percent) was not all that much higher than it has been in KBO (20 percent).

 

If Park were to lose only 40 points on his OBP and SLG from Korea while adding only four percentage points to his K-rate, he's going to be a hell of a player in the majors. But of course, his outcome won't be dictated by what happened with Choi, and certainly not by what happened with Nishioka. Park is his own player, with his own set of challenges, and he will forge his own path.

 

Personally, I'm optimistic about where that path will lead. The Korean market is a relatively young and undeveloped one for Major League Baseball. Terry Ryan and the Twins might be striking at just the right time.

 

Now let's see if they can get him signed.

 

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[DaveW]

You would make a hell of a politician nick! Arguing against a stance that literally nobody is taking!

Nobody is comparing the two (at least around these parts)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What is your opinion on what will happen with Vargas, Plouffe, Arcia, Hicks, Kepler, Walker and the rest? All those guys have value or at least some real potential, but no position to play. At least when Nishioka was signed there was a spot for him.

[h2oface]

Watching some of that way too long video of Park hitting his homers in 2015....... if he weighs as little as 230 then I am 7 foot tall. He could stand to get in shape for the MLB.

[laloesch]

 

What is your opinion on what will happen with Vargas, Plouffe, Arcia, Hicks, Kepler, Walker and the rest? All those guys have value or at least some real potential, but no position to play. At least when Nishioka was signed there was a spot for him.

 

My thoughts exactly.  Twins might as well trade away Vargas, Kepler and Walker for nothing.  With Sano moving to the outfield and the acquisition of Palka and possible signing of Park they have no need to keep these three marginal prospects anymore.  Lets be realistic, it was an outside chance that any of them had a shot at the lineup over the next two to three years.  Everyone knows that Plouffe will get a four or five year deal next season and Mauer will be extended another 4.  With Park becoming full-time DH soon there is no room for any of the kids to move up.     

[gbg]

 

You would make a hell of a politician nick! Arguing against a stance that literally nobody is taking!
Nobody is comparing the two (at least around these parts)

Remember that the TwinsCentric pieces are posted first in the StarTribune. Although I am constantly warned not to read the comments there, I do occasionally (for laughs), and they were chock full of people doing exactly what Nick was saying.

[jimmer]

Only for Minnesota would signing Nishioka be considered a high-profile move :-)

[Nick Nelson]

 

You would make a hell of a politician nick! Arguing against a stance that literally nobody is taking!
Nobody is comparing the two (at least around these parts)

I don't think the community here is an accurate barometer of Twins fandom at large (which is why I love this place). If you were on Twitter, or even having conversations in person with casual Twins followers about Park, you'd be hearing Nishioka's name coming up plenty.

 

 

Twins might as well trade away Vargas, Kepler and Walker for nothing.  With Sano moving to the outfield and the acquisition of Palka and possible signing of Park they have no need to keep these three marginal prospects anymore.  

Uh...

 

Kepler is an outfielder. I strongly doubt Sano will actually go to the OF, and if he does it'll be a short-term thing. This move doesn't really affect Kepler's timeline. The other two actually are marginal and I'm not terribly worried about blocking them.

[DaveW]

 

I don't think the community here is an accurate barometer of Twins fandom at large (which is why I love this place). If you were on Twitter, or even having conversations in person with casual Twins followers about Park, you'd be hearing Nishioka's name coming up plenty.

 

 

I'm not on twitter, twitter is a toxic wasteland that provides little to no value. Also I don't converse with idiots on a daily basis (try not to anyways), so again, no reasonable person would say Nishioka=Pak etc. Not sure why this article was written and posted on TwinsDaily if twinsdaily users weren't the ones saying it..

Edited November 11, 2015 by DaveW

[Darius]

People aren't comparing the two physically, obvioulsy.  People aren't comparing the two statistically, clearly (at least not that I've seen).  You make that out to be the case.  I think you're missing the sentiment altogether:  

 

They will forever be linked by fans and media because of the fact that they are media-hyped international signing from Asia by the Twins.  E.g.:  "The last time the Twins bid to negotiate with a major free agent from a professional league in Asia, it went horribly.  Will this signing follow suit?"  It's a valid concern, especially considering the money allotted to this guy will generate an opportunity cost  (another option will be foregone if they lost out on the 12 mil) because....well, Pohlads. 

 

If Nishioka fizzled out in Fort Myers, as opposed to Minneapolis, we wouldn't be having this conversation.  The fact that both players were/will likely be basically handed spots in the lineup very early, on teams that had playoff aspirations, their successes/failures can be rightfully compared.  It's more a scrutinization of the front-offices' ability to pull talent from a collective region (similarly how Carribean and European players are/will be compared), as opposed to comparing two individual players physically and statistically.

 

If you can't compare the NPB to the NBO, how can you compare him to a player from the MLB's steroid era (Choi)?  What does both being a "big" first baseman have to do with anything?  If Choi were a small first baseman, would that change anything?  What does weight, in general, really have to anything in baseball?  There are ways to make speedy A.J Pollock, at 195, and tortoise-like Prince Fielder, at 300, look like similar players  (respectively:  .315/.367/.498/.865 v. .305/.378/.463/.841.....speed notwithstanding).  Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera are compared as MVP caliber talents every day.  Totally different players.  Why couldn't Park be compared to Nishioka as a potential failure?

 

I get that you want to list as many supporting points as possible to coyly rip a certain group of people that have annoyed you, but most of them mean absolutely nothing, or are manipulated in a way that feigns logic/patterns.

 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2015 by Darius

[Drew]

I can understand the comparison from the pov that they both succeeded in foreign professional leagues and we have no clue how that success translates.

 

Other than that neither of them have ever been in my kitchen. 

[big dog]

 

What is your opinion on what will happen with Vargas, Plouffe, Arcia, Hicks, Kepler, Walker and the rest? All those guys have value or at least some real potential, but no position to play. At least when Nishioka was signed there was a spot for him.

Yeah, once we gave away JJ Hardy to make a spot, there was a spot for him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

People aren't comparing the two physically, obvioulsy. People aren't comparing the two statistically, clearly (at least not that I've seen). You make that out to be the case. I think you're missing the sentiment altogether:

 

They will forever be linked by fans and media because of the fact that they are media-hyped international signing from Asia by the Twins. E.g.: "The last time the Twins bid to negotiate with a major free agent from a professional league in Asia, it went horribly. Will this signing follow suit?" It's a valid concern, especially considering the money allotted to this guy will generate an opportunity cost (another option will be foregone if they lost out on the 12 mil) because....well, Pohlads.

 

If Nishioka fizzled out in Fort Myers, as opposed to Minneapolis, we wouldn't be having this conversation. The fact that both players were/will likely be basically handed spots in the lineup very early, on teams that had playoff aspirations, their successes/failures can be rightfully compared. It's more a scrutinization of the front-offices' ability to pull talent from a collective region (similarly how Carribean and European players are/will be compared), as opposed to comparing two individual players physically and statistically.

 

If you can't compare the NPB to the NBO, how can you compare him to a player from the MLB's steroid era (Choi)? What does both being a "big" first baseman have to do with anything? If Choi were a small first baseman, would that change anything? What does weight, in general, really have to anything in baseball? There are ways to make speedy A.J Pollock, at 195, and tortoise-like Prince Fielder, at 300, look like similar players (respectively: .315/.367/.498/.865 v. .305/.378/.463/.841.....speed notwithstanding). Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera are compared as MVP caliber talents every day. Totally different players. Why couldn't Park be compared to Nishioka as a potential failure?

 

I get that you want to list as many supporting points as possible to coyly rip a certain group of people that have annoyed you, but most of them mean absolutely nothing, or are manipulated in a way that feigns logic/patterns.

It's pointless to compare them. They're not even from the same country and league, never mind their wildly different performances, swings, and player profiles. They weren't signed by the same GM and they weren't scouted under the same director.

 

We may as well compare Joe Mauer and Chris Herrman. At least they once played the same position.

 

There's reason to be concerned about anyone who comes out of the KBO. That has absolutely nothing to do with Nishioka.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Not sure why this article was written and posted on TwinsDaily if twinsdaily users weren't the ones saying it..

The people who comment and participate here regularly make up a small portion of the readership. You do understand that, right? 

 

Thanks for your valuable contributions to the conversation though! 

 

 

People aren't comparing the two physically, obvioulsy.  People aren't comparing the two statistically, clearly (at least not that I've seen).  You make that out to be the case. ... They will forever be linked by fans and media because of the fact that they are media-hyped international signing from Asia by the Twins

I understand that this is exactly why the comparison is being made. And it's silly. Which is why this article was written.

 

Also, "media-hyped"? How? These are major moves, not sure the media deserves blame for giving them substantial coverage. 

[Winston Smith]

Interesting to know if the same scouts made both recommendations. My guess is that Terry didn't spend a lot of time in Korea scouting this guy, just like Smith didn't spend time in Japan scouting Nishi.

 

This kind of signing really goes to how good your scouting is. We'll see.

[James]

Great article.  I have heard some people make this comparison on the radio, which has always seemed silly to me.  

 

TR even said something like "this is just like Nishioka" in a press-conference, but I'm pretty sure he was only saying that in reference to negotiating a contract and timelines.

 

Also, slight nit to pick: Rob Refsnyder was born in South Korea, yes... but he was adopted when he was 5-months old and lived in California after that.  I'm not sure he's worth mentioning as a comparison.  

 

And, I know Hyun-Jin Ryu is a pitcher, but he also played in the KBO and has been able transfer his skills to the MLB.  Just a thought. 

[ashbury]

Watching some of that way too long video

You didn't sit through the whole thing? Then you missed the Rickroll somewhere in the middle of it! I didn't bother to write down the time-mark for it, so you should sit down and watch the whole thing now.

[ashbury]

Interesting to know if the same scouts made both recommendations.

This is where the majority of Nishioka comparisons are coming from, IMO. The Nishi signing was a classic case of scouting failure, because reportedly the Twins were caught by surprise at his mechanical flaws when he showed up at camp. That was under the Bill Smith regime, and it was (for me) as much of a firing offense as anything else that happened during his term, the lack of accountability from the scouting staff. Now, under Terry Ryan, I would expect a tighter ship to be run in this department of the front office. But some fans are going to draw comparisons, and indeed if I had a chance to talk with Ryan I would ask him to compare/contrast the team's scouting in Asia 5 years ago to now, just for some reassurance.

 

Ugh, I DON'T want to see this turn into a Bill Smith thread. But I at least had to invoke his name to make the point about the connection to this thread topic.

[Dantes929]

I love articles that say stop comparing two players that then goes on to compare the two players with the objective to elicit comments comparing the two players.    I'm not going to say hypocritical but rather ironic and not a little bit funny.   It would be more honest if someone just posted a headline saying "Don't compare Park to Nishioka" or "Stop comparing Mauer to Oliva" or "Don't compare Escobar to Punto", then write nothing in the content about the two and did not allow comments to be made. 

I don't like to be told what to do so I will proceed to discuss the two.

First of all I never had a problem with signing Nishioka and I am guessing most of you did not either at the time.   Japan was riding a wave of respect based on good performance in world championships and guys like Ichiro having success here.    Nishioka led his league in hitting.  That was a good thing.  The criticism I had was getting rid of Hardy, therefore relying on Valencia who wildly outperformed his minor league numbers in a SSS in 2010, Casilla who was similarly unproven and a foreign guy with no MLB experience.    I am not taking a stance against unproven guys being given spots because they have to get proven somewhere at some time to be considered proven but to have all three infield spots be suspect was just too much. 

So here is the very reasonable comparison, IMO anyway.    I was ok with signing Nishioka since we had middle infielder need and depth but the problem was letting Hardy go.     We have depth at spots Park is likely to play so it actually makes a little less sense but I am still ok with the signing.    It is the moves made from here that might call this move into question.   Anyone saying there is no comparison will likely change their tune if Plouffe is traded and does well at the same time Park is a bust.    I hope that doesn't play out like that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

You didn't sit through the whole thing? Then you missed the Rickroll somewhere in the middle of it! I didn't bother to write down the time-mark for it, so you should sit down and watch the whole thing now.

Could you relink to that home run video for us?

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is where the Nishioka comparisons arise, IMO. The Nishi signing was a classic case of scouting failure, because reportedly the Twins were caught by surprise at his mechanical flaws when he showed up at camp. That was under the Bill Smith regime, and it was (for me) as much of a firing offense as anything else that happened during his term, the lack of accountability from the scouting staff. Now, under Terry Ryan, I would expect a tighter ship to be run in this department of the front office. But some fans are going to draw comparisons, and indeed if I had a chance to talk with Ryan I would ask him to compare/contrast the team's scouting in Asia 5 years ago to now, just for some reassurance.

 

Ugh, I DON'T want to see this turn into a Bill Smith thread. But I at least had to invoke his name to make the point about the connection to this thread topic.

A few things here:

 

1) Different scouting director, different GM. To expect the same process isn't sound analysis.

 

2) I've heard - albeit second or third hand - that many of the Twins' scouting reports on Nishioka were not positive. I have no idea what the hell happened there but I'm not sure it was the fault of scouts.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Here's another thing I don't get. Ryan and Molitor seem very serious in their concern for Sano's strikeout totals.

 

Are they also concerned with Park and Palka's strikeout tendencies?

[jimmer]

I agree the differences are huge.  Not sure why anyone would compare the two.  

 

But one of the big differences pointed out in the original thread is that Nishioka was signed under Smith and the rights to Park were acquired by Ryan.  What happens if this is a bust as well?  Will Ryan receive all the vitrol Smith did/does for the Nishi signing (like saying he should have been fired for that very UNCOSTLY mistake) by the people who consistently defend Ryan (and part of the defense is by bringing up Smith all the time)?  Ryan has made much more costly mistakes since he's been back. 

 

Anyway, here is hoping we sign him and he's not a bust.

[jimmer]

 

A few things here:

1) Different scouting director, different GM. To expect the same process isn't sound analysis.

2) I've heard - albeit second or third hand - that many of the Twins' scouting reports on Nishioka were not positive. I have no idea what the hell happened there but I'm not sure it was the fault of scouts.

Hasn't Deron Johnson been the scouting director since like 2007?

[Nick Nelson]

I dunno. Maybe this piece fell flat because the headline was too strong. 

 

The purpose here is not to lecture anyone (I know most people here would not make the comparison), but to clearly define the vastly different situations between this signing and the infamous one that took place five years ago, and also to point out that if we do want to make contextual comparisons, there are better examples out there.

 

Also, this has been noted above but I'll add: I have seen the scouting report that the Twins received on Nishioka. It was not glowing by any means. That move was simply a colossal failure in team-building and -- combined with the decision to give Hardy away -- the worst moment in Bill Smith's tenure. 

[David Iverson]

Others have already made the point I’m about to make, but I’m going to say it again anyway using different words.  Comparing the two players themselves is silly, but it is absolutely not silly to compare the two when it comes to the processes used by the Twins to scout and sign players from Asian leagues.  Yes, the NPB and KBO leagues are completely different leagues, but when it comes to scouting and signing players from those leagues, the process looks pretty similar from my vantage point.  The last time we saw the Twins go through this process to completion it was an abject failure, so not only is it not silly, it is prudent and important to ask whether the Twins have changed how they scout and sign players from Asian leagues between signing Nishioka and Park.

[AKTwins]

A few thoughts:

1.) is it possible this guy will start in AAA to get his sea legs before making the jump? I like the idea of competition so I hope they do not just write him in as a starter.

2.). All the talk by Ryan that he is not shopping anyone is just GM talk. I suspect Ryan listens to all offers for plouffe.

[Shane Wahl]

Sidenote on Palka: the guy is just going to be a AA guy with power and speed right now. He was 29th or so in the D-Backs prospect list. This translates to 35 or so for the Twins. He is not going to be involved for the Twins in 2016.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hasn't Deron Johnson been the scouting director since like 2007?

Ah, I think you're right. I was thinking 2011 for some reason.

[strumdatjaguar]

So, it looks like all Korean players are injury-prone, since that guy with the Pirates went to the DL in September.  Just kidding.