Article: The Trade Market For Trevor Plouffe

[Nick Nelson]

Trevor Plouffe is a key figure in the coming offseason for the Minnesota Twins, with the presence of Miguel Sano and the club's desire to get find him a spot in the field creating an interesting dynamic.

 

I wouldn't say Plouffe is expendable – the Twins can't afford to simply give away a quality bat like his – but it would make sense to trade him this winter if the right opportunity presented itself.

 

So what kind of return can we expect for Plouffe?Many have been skeptical of Sano's ability to excel at third base because of his size, but Twins officials continue to cite his underrated athleticism in saying he can be an asset there. He did look decent in limited duty at the hot corner as a rookie.

 

This much is clear: Sano is much more valuable if he's playing in the field, and relegating him to DH duty this early in his career is less than ideal. He won't be playing first base any time soon, and he sure seems like a better bet at third than in the outfield, where the Twins are apparently going to take a look at him even though he's never played there before.

 

Trading Plouffe would open up third base while also adding payroll flexibility, as the 29-year-old is expected to make somewhere around $8 million through arbitration next year.

 

But he was a big piece for the Twins offense this season. He batted fourth or fifth in 78 percent of Minnesota's games and drove in a team-leading 86 runs. That production is not easily replaced, and his defense at third was very solid to boot.

 

The problem is that from the outside, Plouffe might not look quite as valuable as he does from the inside. Among 21 qualified MLB third basemen, he ranked 15th in OPS, eighth in home runs and 14th in WAR. By the numbers, he was not a standout starter at his position.

 

He was, however, a legitimate starter, as well as a credible threat in the middle of the lineup. That's something plenty of teams could use. So what might another GM be willing to give up in order to acquire Plouffe, who has two years of team control remaining?

 

Working in Terry Ryan's favor is a very thin free agent market at third base. The top name available is David Freese, who is basically an older and inferior version of Plouffe. After that, there's nobody that could really be viewed as a viable starter.

 

That means clubs in dire need of help at the hot corner will be facing limited options this offseason. Here's a look at four such clubs, with a glance at what could be on the table in a potential Plouffe trade.

 

Milwaukee Brewers

 

Aramis Ramirez was Milwaukee's regular at third through the first half, but they traded him to Pittsburgh in July. Hernan Perez got most of the starts thereafter, but did little to establish himself and has never really profiled as a big-league starter. The Brewers lack impact prospects at the position, and need to right the ship following a 94-loss season, so they will surely be aggressive in pursuit of upgrades.

 

What Might a Deal Look Like?

 

The Brewers recently exercised the $8 million option for 2016 on Adam Lind's contract. He'd make a lot of sense as a return piece in a Plouffe trade, because he could take over the freshly vacated DH spot and his powerful lefty bat would look even better than Plouffe's behind Sano. Milwaukee would maybe have to throw in an additional mid-level prospect since the Twins would be losing a year of team control in going from Plouffe to Lind.

 

 

Atlanta Braves

 

Atlanta had nine different players start at third base in 2015, with none drawing more than 41 starts. Nobody is coming up internally to help out at the position so they have a strong need to look outside. The Braves scored the fewest runs in baseball this year and had only one player surpass 10 home runs, so they could definitely use a power infusion.

 

What Might a Deal Look Like?

 

One arm that could be of great interest to the Twins is Arodys Vizcaino. The 24-year-old throws in the high 90s and took over as Atlanta's closer in September, finishing the year with a 1.60 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 33 innings. He missed the first half of this season after testing positive for the same drug as Ervin Santana, but bounced back nicely and finally showed signs of reining in the control issues that have been his limitation. Skilled young catcher Christian Bethancourt is another to watch.

 

San Diego Padres

 

The incumbent, Yangervis Solarte, is an overachiever who lacks the talent of a player like Plouffe. The Padres are always searching for offensive punch, and might be especially interested in a right-handed bat with Justin Upton likely to depart as a free agent.

 

What Might a Deal Look Like?

 

The most appealing player on the San Diego roster is Derek Norris, a 27-year-old catcher with a good bat. He's young and won't be a free agent until 2019 so he'd be a long-term answer at a position where the Twins sorely need one. Plouffe plus a prospect in the Jorge Polanco range might get it done.

 

Chicago White Sox

 

Trades within the division are rare, so this might be a long shot, but the White Sox are truly hopeless at third base. Tyler Saladino received the most starts for them this year, leading a bunch that also included Conor Gilaspie, Gordon Beckham and Mike Olt. No help from the farm is near.

 

What Might a Deal Look Like?

 

The White Sox have a number of very good right-handed pitching prospects, including Spencer Adams, Tyler Danish, Carson Fulmer and Frankie Montas. If the Twins could add any of those arms to their system, while finding a bat elsewhere to replace Plouffe's, it would be a savvy move for the long-term. Again: it's hard to see Chicago sending one of its better young arms to a division rival.

 

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[jsteve96]

the only one i really like out of here is the most unlikely one..  3 of those 4 white sox prospects look promising. I'd maybe do the Braves trade for the RP if they through in a lower level prospect as well

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It's good to know there aren't a lot of third baseman on the market this winter. I do think the Twins are overrating Plouffe, however. Like you said, he's not in the upper half of third baseman with the stick. He was outslugged last year by Rosario and Escobar. Plouffe is not a guy we can't live without, and in fact he's blocking our best hitting prospect since Joe Mauer came up. So, there's that.

[HitInAPinch]

Thanks Nick for setting some realistic expectations. 

 

Norris would definitely fill a need, no real question there.  In the other possibles, I like the idea of doing a 1+ deal.  Of those, I like the proposed Atlanta deal the best.

 

If this is gonna happen, when do you think it will?  I'm guessing after they run Sano out to 3B several days in a row in Spring Training. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

Serious consideration should be given to benching Mauer if we cannot deal Plouffe this offseason.

[markos]

Two thoughts:

 

1) I don't think the Braves and Brewers are in the market for Plouffe. They both seems to be in the middle of rebuilding, and they are probably more interested in acquiring and keeping young, cheap players rather than giving them up to acquire a player like Plouffe.

 

2) I'm surprised you didn't mention the Angels. They are have hole (Freese is leaving in free agency) and are in a win-now mode. They have a potential internal replacement in Kyle Kubitza, but Plouffe seems like the kind of player the Angels would be interested in (veteran, good defense). 

[dbminn]

I would prefer a deal with the Padres for a catcher.

 

If the Padres are interested in Plouffe, that would signal they are going for the playoffs next year. In that case, wouldn't they be more likely to trade their catching prospect than Norris? 

[mikelink45]

The most important aspect of the article is the reality that Plouffe is much better in the minds of Twins fans than he is in the field.  He is a serviceable player, but I am not sure that we will even get what these trade scenarios suggest.  If we can we need to move him and move on.  My real interest is in a package that will get Nolasco to the NL where he might have value.  With Plouffe and maybe one of the good minor leaguers that we cannot see an opening for we might win on two levels. 

[Old Twins Cap]

Hey, WE are overrating Plouffe, not the Twins, and certainly not the rest of the league.   WE are the ones who think Plouffe can bring a decent return.  

 

He is a below average hitter, and has made himself into a good infielder, moving one or two steps in either direction.  Otherwise, he cannot make the plays, on bunts, on long throws, on pop-ups down the line.

 

You can get him out on high outside fastballs.  The only direction he is going to go from here is down. 

 

He's a veteran, can make the plays he needs to make, but, he ain't going to bring back much at $8M.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

I think Plouffe is underrated and could be of good value to other teams, but he'd be a much better fit for a stout offense that could see him bat 7th or so.  The Twins still have some work to do to beef up the OBP of the middle of their lineup.  Sano can't be the only guy in the heart of the lineup who can get on base.

[gunnarthor]

He's a pretty consistent guy - you're going to get a .250/.315/.430 102 OPS+, 3 WAR guy who's under team control for two years and plays solid defense.  That's a good thing.  On an Astros blog they were talking about a deal for him that would be centered around Micheal Feliz, a hard throwing 23-year old pitching prospect and some throw-ins.  

 

I'm not sure we're at a place where we can just assume we can replace Plouffe's production (offensively or defensively) so I don't think we'll trade him.

[tobi0040]

 

It's good to know there aren't a lot of third baseman on the market this winter. I do think the Twins are overrating Plouffe, however. Like you said, he's not in the upper half of third baseman with the stick. He was outslugged last year by Rosario and Escobar. Plouffe is not a guy we can't live without, and in fact he's blocking our best hitting prospect since Joe Mauer came up. So, there's that.

 

He posted a WAR of 3.9 two years ago and 2.5 this year.  This is a thin position.  So a top 10-15 bat and top 10 defensive player there has value.

[Loosey]

I agree that Twins fans overrate Plouffe.  Especially since he seems to be the best of the expendable players on the roster.  I would rate Plouffe as a top 15-20 third baseman in the league, probably closer to 20 (so bottom half).  But I think the piece that would make him more valuable than other players of similar ability to him in terms of hitting would be his contract and the fact he is a very reliable defensive third baseman compared to other strong hitting ones.  But as Nick said I wouldn't just trade him to trade him.  The best option may be to wait for one of his multi-week hot streaks during the season and trade him then.     

[ashbury]

Nice summary, Nick. Now for the quibbling:

1. Plouffe for Lind. It's not easy to do, but we'd be replacing Trevor with somebody even slower on the basepaths.
2. Plouffe for a young Atlanta closer. Seems like a lot to give up a position player for a bullpen piece, even if he throws gas. Maybe go for both prospects mentioned, and if we have to add a C-graded prospect to even things out, so be it. But, as already mentioned, a veteran like Plouffe might not be what a full-rebuild team like the Braves wants.
3. Plouffe to the Padres for anybody at all. I weep for Trevor's career if he is banished to San Diego. His tenure as a viable hitter will be over.
4. Plouffe to the White Sox. The first couple of those pitching prospects have strikeout numbers that, were they touted prospects within the Twins own system, there would be a hue and cry by observers over pitch to contact or whatever. But the latter two on the list look probably close to untouchable, aren't they? Plouffe alone isn't going to fetch either of them. Of course I'd be fine with a 2-for-1 deal, to include any young'uns not named Sano/Buxton/Berrios/Kepler/Gordon. But it isn't happening unless we massively overpay.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He's a pretty consistent guy - you're going to get a .250/.315/.430 102 OPS+, 3 WAR guy who's under team control for two years and plays solid defense.  That's a good thing.  On an Astros blog they were talking about a deal for him that would be centered around Micheal Feliz, a hard throwing 23-year old pitching prospect and some throw-ins. 

Interesting -- do you have the link?  The Astros have Jed Lowrie under contract for 2 more seasons plus a third option year, all at very reasonable salaries (perhaps less than Plouffe's remaining arbitration awards).  Plus they have Luis Valbuena under control for another season, and the last 3 years he's been a 106 OPS+ bat with average defense at third base.  Not to mention a couple solid looking utility options in Gonzalez and Villar.  Plus two upper-minors 3B in their top ~10 prospects by Sickels.

 

Add in one of the best young starting 2B and SS combos in the league, I really can't see them seeking more MLB infielders unless it was a Donaldson-type opportunity.

 

By Sickels, Feliz was their #3 preseason prospect for 2015, quite possibly #1 by now, grade B+/B.

[Mike Sixel]

I fail to see how the 14th best 3B, cost controlled for 2 more years, is "serviceable". I don't think people understand the scarcity of that asset right now.....guys like him are going to get $15MM+ per year this year in FA. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Brewers recently exercised the $8 million option for 2016 on Adam Lind's contract. He'd make a lot of sense as a return piece in a Plouffe trade, because he could take over the freshly vacated DH spot and his powerful lefty bat would look even better than Plouffe's behind Sano. Milwaukee would maybe have to throw in an additional mid-level prospect since the Twins would be losing a year of team control in going from Plouffe to Lind.

In addition to the rebuild comments, I'll also say that the Brewers had a pretty big void at 1B for a few years prior to Lind, so they might not be as willing to part with him as a team under normal circumstances.

[goliath]

I'm going to guess the Angels with RH RP Trevor Gott one of the players the Twins get in exchange.

[Clyde123]

Article from the San Diego Union regarding what San Diego is looking for and who might be on the trading block in order for them to accomplish it, including Shields, Kimbrel. Benoit, and Norris.  Any deal the Twins would make that included Shields would have to include Nolasco so it ends up a net 3 year 40 million investment but a blockbuster that included Shields, Kimbrel and Norris would get me excited for next year.  San Diego is looking for left-handed bats, left-handed pitching, a shortstop, and a third baseman.

 

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/nov/07/padres-hot-stove-offseason-preview/

[Linus]

I fail to see how the 14th best 3B, cost controlled for 2 more years, is "serviceable". I don't think people understand the scarcity of that asset right now.....guys like him are going to get $15MM+ per year this year in FA.

I agree. He isnt a star but he's a cost controlled proven MLB starter at a position where there aren't many good players. Supply and demand would dictate he has value.

[Linus]

In addition to the rebuild comments, I'll also say that the Brewers had a pretty big void at 1B for a few years prior to Lind, so they might not be as willing to part with him as a team under normal circumstances.

Why would the Twins even want Lind?

[Mike Sixel]

In KLAW's insider piece today, he says there is no true FA third baseman even available. None. Nada. Nil. I'd think that scarcity of resources is good for Plouffe's value....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I fail to see how the 14th best 3B, cost controlled for 2 more years, is "serviceable". I don't think people understand the scarcity of that asset right now.....guys like him are going to get $15MM+ per year this year in FA. 

What guys like him are going to get that much?

 

Freese is pretty comparable free agent, and didn't even get a 1/15 qualifying offer from the Angels.

 

Chase Headley only got 4/52 from the Yankees last winter, without a qualifying offer and only 2 years removed from a 145 OPS+.

 

I think if Plouffe were a FA, he would probably be worth a qualifying offer from this team, but on a longer-term deal, $12 mil AAV over 3-4 might be a better target for a FA contract.  And that would put him in similar company as guys like Nolasco, who seem to be worth even less in the trade market because similar level FAs are available every winter and the financial risk of signing them isn't that great.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Why would the Twins even want Lind?

If we're moving Plouffe, that means Sano is the regular 3B, so the DH spot would be open.  I probably wouldn't target Lind to fill it, but it's not unreasonable, especially if there is evidence that Arcia won't get back on track.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What guys like him are going to get that much?

 

Freese is pretty comparable free agent, and didn't even get a 1/15 qualifying offer from the Angels.

 

Chase Headley only got 4/52 from the Yankees last winter, without a qualifying offer and only 2 years removed from a 145 OPS+.

 

I think if Plouffe were a FA, he would probably be worth a qualifying offer from this team, but on a longer-term deal, $12 mil AAV over 3-4 might be a better target for a FA contract.  And that would put him in similar company as guys like Nolasco, who seem to be worth even less in the trade market because similar level FAs are available every winter and the financial risk of signing them isn't that great.

 

 

None at 3B, but at other positions, yes. A 2.5-3 WAR player is not going to sign for $12MM per year, imo, unless they are over 31 or 32.

 

BTW, KLAW does not list him as a trade target in his article today, I just tweeted him to ask about that. Will let you know what he says.....even if you all don't care.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Article from the San Diego Union regarding what San Diego is looking for and who might be on the trading block in order for them to accomplish it, including Shields, Kimbrel. Benoit, and Norris.  Any deal the Twins would make that included Shields would have to include Nolasco so it ends up a net 3 year 40 million investment but a blockbuster that included Shields, Kimbrel and Norris would get me excited for next year.  San Diego is looking for left-handed bats, left-handed pitching, a shortstop, and a third baseman.

 

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/nov/07/padres-hot-stove-offseason-preview/

That kind of stuff has been swirling around San Diego for awhile, so I'll believe it when I see it.  (Plus, if they're in sell mode with Shields, Kimbrel, etc. -- why would they want Plouffe and his 2 years of control back?)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

None at 3B, but at other positions, yes. A 2.5-3 WAR player is not going to sign for $12MM per year, imo, unless they are over 31 or 32.

Headley signed for $13 mil per year last season, without a comp pick attached, only 1 year older than Plouffe is now.  And he had 4 straight seasons of 2.8 WAR or better, including one at 6.3 WAR, according to B-Ref.  And that was from the big spending Yankees who had a void at 3B, presumably this winter the Brewers and Braves wouldn't bid things quite so high.

 

I could absolutely see Plouffe getting less than Headley's deal.  And players getting around that level FA deal tend not to be too valuable on the trade market.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Now that we all agree (not really) that the Twins need to keep Plouffe, the next question is, what could Sano get back in a trade?

[Vanimal46]

Now that the Twins won the bid to negotiate with Park, I think the Plouffe for Lind idea is dead. I would be excited for the Atlanta Braves or San Diego Dad's proposals. The White Sox for all I know could be the best proposal, but I'd prefer not to deal Plouffe to a division rival. 

[Clyde123]

 

That kind of stuff has been swirling around San Diego for awhile, so I'll believe it when I see it.  (Plus, if they're in sell mode with Shields, Kimbrel, etc. -- why would they want Plouffe and his 2 years of control back?)

Shed 100 million in salary and take back 40 million.  This stuff was bantered about at the trade deadline and Ryan has said in the past that deals that don't get made at the deadline sometimes get made in the off-season as the initial negotiations have taken place.  It's the prospects that Terry would throw in that would be important to San Diego.  Too many to add all of them to the 40 man.