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Article: Do The Twins Need To Acquire An Ace?


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I was on a radio show on 1390 The Fan in St. Cloud yesterday, and the first question I was asked about the Twins offseason was if I thought the team would attempt to acquire an ace in the offseason.

 

It is a very fair question. As we watched the playoffs unfold this year, there were aces all over. The New York Mets started four young pitchers who topped 95 with their fastball and have really good secondary pitches. The Royals added Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline. The Blue Jays added David Price at the deadline. The Astros had Dallas Kuechel. The Dodgers had Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke.

 

The Minnesota Twins have some depth at starting pitcher, and they made huge improvements as a group in 2015. For the first time in several years, they did not finish last in starters ERA.

 

The last two offseasons, Terry Ryan has spent $100 million combined for Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana. Neither would fit the category of ace, but before signing with the Twins, they both had been solid, inning- eating pitchers for an extended period of time. Phil Hughes pitched like an Ace in 2014, but he came back down to earth in 2015. Tommy Milone won’t fit anyone’s definition of an ace, but he pitched well much of 2015. Kyle Gibson isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, but he topped 180 innings and was the Twins top pitcher in 2015. Tyler Duffey pitched like an ace down the stretch. Trevor May showed at times in the first half that he can be a solid MLB starter. He is capable of missing bats. And, we all look forward to the day when JO Berrios is in the rotation and what he could become.

 

In the Twins Daily Offseason GM Handbook, Terry Ryan was asked how he would define an Ace.

 

“We have a definition of an ace. It’d be quality innings, it’d be a guy that can get you a win when you need it, it would be a guy that’s got pitchability, it’d be a guy that gets into the seventh or eighth more often than not, those types of things. That’s an ace. And it doesn’t necessarily have to be a guy that throws 96. Maddux was an ace for a long time, he didn’t throw 96, and he did all those things I just mentioned.”

 

As I wrote last month, velocity certainly doesn’t hurt but it isn’t a requirement for an Ace. Ryan continued, “Radke was our ace for a long time, and people argue that he wasn’t a No. 1. OK, that’s a good response. But he also pounded out 230 innings every year for a decade. He might not be the guy you want going up against some of these bigshots, but he also was the type of guy that you feel pretty good about taking the mound.”

 

Over the course of his 12 seasons with the Twins, Radke quietly put up 45.6 bWAR. In the Twins 55 year history, only five Twins players have accumulated a higher bWAR. Those players are Rod Carew (63.7), Harmon Killebrew (53.7), Kirby Puckett (50.9), Bert Blyleven (49.3), and Joe Mauer (47.8). The next pitchers in line include Johan Santana (35.5 in 8 seasons), Jim Kaat (31.7 in 13 seasons) and Frank Viola (27.2 in 8 seasons).

 

Think back to the Twins World Series teams of the past. The 1965 team had Jim Kaat, Camilo Pascual and Mudcat Grant. The 1987 team was led by Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven. The 1991 team had Jack Morris, Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson.

 

So, let’s get back to the 2015-2016 offseason and the original question. Do the Twins need an ace to get to the next step, to get to the playoffs and compete for another World Series title? The obvious answer is that it certainly wouldn’t hurt.

None of the seven starters that will be competing for spots in the 2016 starting rotation are going to sit at 94+ mph. Trevor May averaged 93.2 mph on his fastball in 2015, but that was heightened by his time in the bullpen when he regularly hit 95 mph. Mike Pelfrey’s average fastball was 93.0 mph, but he is now a free agent and unlikely to return. Ervin Santana was next at 92.5. Then Kyle Gibson at 92.0 mph. Phil Hughes’ velocity dropped to 90.7 in 2015. Tommy Milone’s average fastball was just 87.6.

 

However, Phil Hughes topped 200 innings in 2014. He had pitched 190 innings one other time in his career. Ervin Santana pitched more than 200 innings five times in his career, and reached 196 innings one other time. Ricky Nolasco went past 200 innings twice and was over 185 innings three other times. Tyler Duffey threw 196 innings between the big leagues and minor leagues in 2015. He’s got the size and strength to be the type of pitcher who can get to 200 innings consistently.

 

Could the Twins acquire an ace this offseason?

 

Could they acquire one in a trade? The Twins certainly have the prospects required to acquire pretty much any starting pitcher that might be available. This week, Billy Beane said that he didn’t think that there was much likelihood that he would trade Sonny Gray. However, as Nick wrote last month, acquiring Gray (or any ace-type pitcher) will take a combination of players such as Max Kepler and JO Berrios.

 

Is it possible that the Twins could sign an ace this offseason?David Price is the top pitcher on the trade market. In the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, we projected that Price will sign a bigger contract that Max Scherzer’s seven year, $210 million deal signed last year. It’s hard to imagine the Twins signing a pitcher for $30 million a year over more than half a decade.

 

So then there is the second tier. Names in this group include Johnny Cueto, Zach Greinke and Jordan Zimmerman. There is a good chance that these three pitchers will get at least $25 million per season for at least five seasons.

 

Those four pitchers are the aces in the group. Along with committing $150 million or more, these players would cost the Twins their first-round draft pick in 2016, the 17th overall pick. If you want, you can add Jeff Samardzija to the group, but his 6.29 ERA in the 2nd half exemplifies the inconsistency that has marked his career.

 

The next group includes guys like Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Scott Kazmir and Brett Anderson. These guys are $13-15 million guys, and likely would also cost the first round pick.

 

Now, many will tell you that there isn’t a salary cap in baseball. That is true. However, businesses (which is what MLB teams are) do have to spend appropriately to their revenues. Why do I mention that? Because if the Twins are going to make a big splash in free agency with a starting pitcher, they would also need to make some moves to reduce their current payroll.

 

How can they do that? Well, it’s easy to say they could get rid of Nolasco. However, if they are able to trade him, the Twins will have to still pay a huge chunk of his salary. The team could non-tender Tommy Milone, or they could trade him. However, that’s only $5 million. They could trade Trevor Plouffe, and that would open up about $8 million more. That’s $13 million. Is it possible that the Twins would also be willing to trade someone like Phil Hughes or Ervin Santana to open up another $12-13 million. That would get them to about $25 million. That might be enough to pick up one of the ace-like pitchers.

 

If you’re looking for my opinion, I would feel comfortable sticking with the Twins current pitching options. Phil Hughes needs to be the 2014 version, and after a frustrating 2015, I think he would put in the work to get back to what he was. Having Ervin Santana for a full season would certainly benefit the team. The hope would be that Kyle Gibson would continue to be more consistent and take another step forward. Obviously it would be great if Tyler Duffey would pitch close to how he pitched down the stretch. At just 25 next season, he could develop into a mainstay in the rotation. Trevor May warrants another opportunity as a starter. He’s still just 26. And, of course, they need to do what is best for JO Berrios as well because he’s got the potential to be a guy you would feel good starting a playoff game for years to come as well.

 

That rotation may not have the definition of an ace by many accounts. However, I feel good about the potential of Duffey and Berrios becoming long-term, reliable starters. I have a comfort level in Kyle Gibson and Ervin Santana. And, I do think that Hughes will bounce back in 2016. That’s a pretty solid staff, and I would feel comfortable with several of them making playoff starts. And that doesn’t even count Tommy Milone who, at times, was the Twins top starter in 2015 and actually has made playoff starts.

 

And, though we haven’t discussed it to this point, having an outfield defense that will, at some point, include Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Aaron Hicks will help any pitching staff.

 

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We have a definition of an ace. It’d be quality innings, it’d be a guy that can get you a win when you need it, it would be a guy that’s got pitchability, it’d be a guy that gets into the seventh or eighth more often than not, those types of things. That’s an ace. And it doesn’t necessarily have to be a guy that throws 96. Maddux was an ace for a long time, he didn’t throw 96, and he did all those things I just mentioned.”

You ended his quote here, but what he went on to say kind of bugged me.

...Radke was our ace for a long time, and people argue

that he wasn’t a No. 1. OK, that’s a good response. But he also pounded out

230 innings every year for a decade. He might not be the guy you want going

up against some of these bigshots, but he also was the type of guy that you feel

pretty good about taking the mound.

That waters down what most people think of as ace, to be innings eater. I loved Radke, especially his grit that final season, but on most teams he'd be their innings eater - someone you feel "pretty good about" and will keep you in the game, but isn't expected to shut anyone down on even a semi-regular basis.

 

I imagine Ryan would love to develop an ace, but he'll never go out and acquire an established one. Acquisitions will always be innings eaters, judging by the way he pivoted on that question.

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You ended his quote here, but what he went on to say kind of bugged me.

That waters down what most people think of as ace, to be innings eater. I loved Radke, especially his grit that final season, but on most teams he'd be their innings eater - someone you feel "pretty good about" and will keep you in the game, but isn't expected to shut anyone down on even a semi-regular basis.

 

I imagine Ryan would love to develop an ace, but he'll never go out and acquire an established one. Acquisitions will always be innings eaters, judging by the way he pivoted on that question.

 

1.) Read the next paragraph after the quote where you said I ended it.

 

2.) Radke would give up some early runs. But for the most part, he gave his team a chance to win almost every time out. He played on some really bad teams and still gave those teams a chance to win. How he won 20 games on a team that maybe won 70 is remarkable. He ate innings, he threw strikes, he got weak contact (especially after the first inning). No one is putting him in the Maddux, Kershaw category, but if you're eating a lot of innings, it means you're doing a pretty good job. And, don't make too much of the "Pretty good about taking the mound comment." How many of us say that when we really feel 'really good' or whatever. That's just words. 

 

I think any free agent signing is risky and probably won't end well, so I woudln't go out and get an established one. It does speak to developing one. They developed Santana (even though he was a Rule 5 guy, he hadn't pitched above Low A ball). They developed Liriano (acquired when he had like 9 innings above the rookie leagues). But that's the best way to do it. Get those guys during their first six years, extend them a couple of years past free agency, and then let them go. That's probably the right strategy, but very, very difficult to do.

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There are only two ways to end up with an "ace". Acquire one or develop one. So does Ryan's definition of the term ace, go towards answering the question of how a team like the Mets can have 4 young 95 plus studs, and we struggle to get someone that tops out at 93? While velocity isn't everything, it does tend to make mistakes in the zone less damaging. And the fact that a team targets that style indicates a very different philosophy. Could Blyleven be the last home grown product with actual league wide ace material? And if so, why? It can't be all bad luck? Or can it?

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1.) Read the next paragraph after the quote where you said I ended it.

Ugh, mea culpa. :)

 

I could have gone on to say, I probably have about the same view as Ryan seems to, about the advisability of trying to acquire an established ace. Most such opportunities aren't worth it. Only when I had a team already at the 90-win plateau, would I consider it; I wouldn't do it to help get to that 90-win level. The 2016 Twins don't profile to me as that team.

 

I just was bothered by his preference to re-position the discussion to use the other common meaning of the term, namely the best starting pitcher on the team, AKA "de facto ace". Every team has one, doesn't mean anything.

 

In his position, I probably would attempt the same tactic though. Why get bogged down re-arguing every year about something he has no intention of doing.

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Overall, I don't believe that the Twins are in a good enough position as a team overall to go out and trade their better minor league players, plus some veterans, to acquire a true Ace.  The Twins spending  a lot of bucks to buy and Ace is a nice bedtime story for the kiddies  :-)

 

The whole "looks like a real Ace" thingy:  I'd be happy with the not-so-Acey Johan Santana, Frank Viola, Brad Radke and a great 6 inning from Francisco Liriano.

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To address Seths recent post, I excluded Santana and Liriano because they were not draftes. I could entertain the Santana argument, as he was an ace, but still not a draftee. Liriano was an ace, for 3 months, and got hurt. And when he returned the Twins did not have the patience, or the ability to get him back to that status. Nor apparently did the Sox. And while he has had success in Pittsburgh, is it ace like?

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I can't see a free agent ace coming here unless it's unexpected, such as the Cardinals turning around Chris Carpenter or when RA Dickey came out of nowhere for the Mets. 

 

I'd certainly be willing to trade for a young one though, say Matt Harvey.

 

I'd even be OK chasing a big money free agent starter, just not until Santana, Hughes and Nolasco are no longer guaranteed roster spots.

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There are only two ways to end up with an "ace". Acquire one or develop one. So does Ryan's definition of the term ace, go towards answering the question of how a team like the Mets can have 4 young 95 plus studs, and we struggle to get someone that tops out at 93? While velocity isn't everything, it does tend to make mistakes in the zone less damaging. And the fact that a team targets that style indicates a very different philosophy. Could Blyleven be the last home grown product with actual league wide ace material? And if so, why? It can't be all bad luck? Or can it?

I don't recall Blyleven throwing very hard, certainly not 95.

 

Here's the Mets Big Five (I'll include Zack Wheeler as well):

 

Jacob DeGrom: Mets 9th round pick in 2010 out of Stetson... debuted a month before he turned 26. 

 

Matt Harvey: Mets 1st round pick (7th overall) in 2010 out of UNC.

 

Steven Matz: Mets 2nd round pick in 2009 out of high school in New York.

 

Noah Syndergaard: Blue Jays supp. 1st round pick in 2010 (38th overall) out of high school in Texas. Came to the Mets after the 2012 season (with Travis d'Arnaud) for reigning Cy Young winner RA Dickey. At that time, Syndergaard had never played above Low A.

 

Zack Wheeler: Giants 1st round pick (6th overall) in 2009 out of high school in Georgia. In July 2011, he was traded to the Mets for Carlos Beltran. At that time, he was pitching in High-A ball. 

 

So, generally speaking, four of the five were high draft picks, three out of high school, one out of college. Two were acquired in trades before they reached AA. DeGrom is a rarity, but the others all were drafted with this kind of upside. 

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It was kind of odd how in the interview Ryan sets an extremely high standard for an "ace," suggesting that there are only about 12 of them in the league, then goes on to use broad descriptors that could apply to tons of starters (quality innings, "pitchability," works into the 7th/8th frequently) and labels Radke as one. 

 

Radke was a great pitcher but I'm not sure how he could be categorized as an ace if we're talking about the absolute top tier. 

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During 2015, before a game,  I never felt our starters were over matched. After living through 2011 - 2014, that was a significant improvement.  Each of our 2016 Starter candidates has something positive to be said about them. 

 

The biggest problem that acquiring and Ace would do is that it could delay the progress of Duffey, Berrios and other pitchers coming up through the system.

Nolasco's 4 year contract seemed a fair deal at the time. However, after 2 years of difficulties, the prospect of having Nolasco for 2 more years is not easy to  After 2 years of limited success, the idea of pitching Nolasco instead of Duffey,  Berrios or May os frustrating for Twins Fans. 

 

In my opinion, the Twins need to risk their future on the development of their young pitchers.  Acquiring an Ace might help get the Twins into the post season, but no guarantees come with that.  :)

 

 

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Radke reminds me of James Shields, except Shields is better (2 more K/9, .5 point lower FIP and ERA, albeit with a higher BB/9)

 

And by this I mean a player that eats a lot of innings and is durable.  Difference being Shields is a #2 and Radke a #3.

 

If Shields is a 2, Radke was a 2.  The difference in ERA is a function of the differences in league ERA.  Radke's was .43 better than the average of his leagues; Shields was .45 better. 

 

 

Top 6 seasons by bWAR:

Radke:  6.5, 6.2, 5.8, 5.2, 4.6, 4.5

Shields: 5.5, 5.2, 4.1, 3.8, 3.3, 2.7

 

Top 6 seasons by ERA+

Radke: 136, 135, 120, 116, 115, 114

Shields: 134, 131, 124, 123, 117, 109 

 

Differing styles, but very similar results.  (If you go beyond 6 seasons, the results favor Radke more.  Shields still has an arm attached to the body, so the analysis could change.)

Edited by gil4
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Yeah, I agree with your first two sentences. Radke was never an ace. James Shields? He's a 1/2. Whereas Radke was a 2/3. What makes me uncomfortable is that Ryan probably disagrees with me, based on his love affair with innings pitched and blinders in place about other qualities. But in fairness, it's not that easy to find guys who, year after year, will give you front-end performance, especially due to the injury factor.

 

Right now, Ryan has a bunch of fence-sitters in the rotation. In a good year, they can fall off the front-end side, and in bad years they can become back-end guys. Such is the fickle nature of things for pitchers, so I can't completely diss him for liking durable innings-eaters with quality, i.e. guys who are usually 2/3 and sometimes 2/3.

 

That's what he has with Hughes, Santana, and maybe Gibson. Give me five guys in a rotation who have a fairly decent chance to give me a 2/3 year and I'll take my chances that some guy like Price pitches like a 2/3 come playoff time. That is, if my other choice is a 9 figure contract.

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Nope. I think it'd be too expensive. And the concept of an "ace" is not easily defined. Cueto was mediocre with the Royals until the playoffs. The Mets developed their young pitchers. And the Dodgers have more money than they know what to do with. The Twins have a lot of pitching. A lot of it is mediocre. But someone like Phil Hughes could conceivably pitch well enough to qualify. Santana could pitch well enough to qualify. And the Twins could develop someone like Berrios.

 

I'd much rather the Twins focus on their bullpen and on catching as well as eliminating the ridiculous logjam at the corner infield spots and DH.

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I don't the point in having a 2015 argument about if Radke was an ace.

 

I do think the idea of needing an ace to win the WS is a myth. On any given day or month (for the duration of WS) anyone can be an ace. Remember when Albers had a sub-one ERA?

 

Top tier players help, no doubt, but as Seth says:

The New York Mets started four young pitchers who topped 95 with their fastball and have really good secondary pitches. The Royals added Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline. The Blue Jays added David Price at the deadline. The Astros had Dallas Kuechel. The Dodgers had Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke.

 

 

I believe only one of those teams won the WS. The recipe is to have a full 25 of above average players and get lucky at the right time. Does it help to have 25 all stars? Duh. Is it a proven recipe to success? No.

 

 

 

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The Twins have long equated "pitch innings" with "good".

 

It's one of the biggest problems with the organization's ability to find top-end pitching talent.

 

I'll go out and pitch 200 innings for 4 million and I can assure you it will be anything but "good".

 

 

 

It's difficult to pitch 200 innings without pitching well.  If you get 33 starts, you need to average just over 6 innings a start.  In these days of low pitch counts and 12/13 man pitching staffs, it's tough to get there without pitching well.  You have to keep your job in the rotation, consistently keep your pitch counts down, not get shelled too often, and not get hurt.  None of those things are easy, and they are almost impossible if you aren't any good.

 

"Good" and "top-end talent" are two different things, and top-end talent is tough to find, develop, and keep healthy. 

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Not exactly on topic....

 

Can Tyler Duffey be Brad Radke?

 

I think by just about anyone's definition, Brad Radke wasn't an ace, but he was a solid #2 or really good #3. 

 

Why can't Tyler Duffey be that? Of all the players on the Twins, he's the only one that reminds me of Radke.

 

 

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I'm generally comfortable with the in-house options. A rotation of Santana/Hughes/Gibson/Duffey/Milone to start the season is fine. Quite frankly, I think May is needed more in the bullpen where he can ramp up his FB to the upper 90's and miss bats.

 

You have Berrios available at AAA if someone falters or gets hurt-- which will happen. I didn't even mention Nolasco, assuming he's with the team. (If he is, he probably gets a rotation spot out of spring training.)

 

If the Twins are contending at the deadline, that's the time to look at bringing in the "ace". a la Toronto and Price, or KC and Cueto. I'd be uneasy about spending more guaranteed money on a long term deal to one of the FA's out there.

 

A postseason rotation of: Trade-deadline "ace", Santana, Berrios and one of Hughes/Gibson and most importantly an absolute shutdown beast of a bullpen looks damn close to what KC did this year.

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Other than money......I don't get how a proven MLB is more risky than a draft pick that has never played in the majors.

 

I am responding to this from Seth:

 

I think any free agent signing is risky and probably won't end well, so I woudln't go out and get an established one.

 

Isn't a draft pick risky, and super LIKELY not to end well? 

 

As for the question, do they NEED and ACE? No, but as constructed on offense and defense right now, an ACE would help this team a lot. This is not the Blue Jays offense, or the Royals defense or bullpen......

 

I see a zero percent chance an ace signs here as a FA this year. So either Berrios becomes one, or they trade for one, or they don't have one again for many years....

Edited by Mike Sixel
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The Mets developed their own talent.  This is the only acceptable formula for us - and it includes rule 5.  We have the talent right now - Berrios, Duffey, Gibson, May to have a young productive staff.  We sign and trade for low end free agents and stifle their development. We could not straighten out Liriano, we gave up on Garza and Lohse.  Spend some more money on people who teach the pitchers how to pitch.  It is cheaper than free agency to invest in your product in the minors and get them up and pitching earlier - I will always consider it a baseball crime that Berrios was not up this year and I do not care how his career ultimately develops. 

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Other than money......I don't get how a proven MLB is more risky than a draft pick that has never played in the majors.

 

I am responding to this from Seth:

 

I think any free agent signing is risky and probably won't end well, so I woudln't go out and get an established one.

 

Isn't a draft pick risky, and super LIKELY not to end well? 

 

As for the question, do they NEED and ACE? No, but as constructed on offense and defense right now, an ACE would help this team a lot. This is not the Blue Jays offense, or the Royals defense or bullpen......

 

I see a zero percent chance an ace signs here as a FA this year. So either Berrios becomes one, or they trade for one, or they don't have one again for many years....

Ryan already traded an established CF and leadoff guy for an Ace ;-)

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I am on the "don't sign one" bandwagon.

 

Note, I am NOT blasting Ryan for signing Hughes, Santana or Nolasco. (Haven't we been down this path before???) But the fact is, they ARE signed. Even if we can move Nolasco for SOMETHING and only have to pay half his salary, I feel we would absolutely have to then move either Hughes or Santana to not only afford our new FA "ace" pitcher, but to make room in the rotation.

 

Then, how much better...IP, QS, etc...would this pitcher be over the displaced Hughes or Santana? Would it really be enough to offset improvements that really need to be made at catcher and the bullpen?

 

I love having that true #1 guy to lead your staff. But he still pitches only once every 5th day. With Hughes, Santana, Berrios, May, Duffey, Gibson and even Milone available, I feel pretty good about what the Twins can march out to the mound EVERY day. I would rather go with what we have, let the kids develop, and focus on catcher and strengthening and deepening the bullpen.

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The Twins have long equated "pitch innings" with "good".

 

It's one of the biggest problems with the organization's ability to find top-end pitching talent.

 

I'll go out and pitch 200 innings for 4 million and I can assure you it will be anything but "good".

I hear you! It is kind of an insult saying he's a good "innings eater." One should not take that as a compliment, but as someone who is "replacement level" and temporary, until a good option comes along. 

 

I understand where it is nice to have a guy who can go deep into games, but going 6-8 innings each game, while giving up 3-5 runs more often than not is not a good thing. I just "feel" like the Twins would love to have them some gritty Alfredo Simon, Tom Koehler, Rubby De la Rossa, Wade Miley, Colon, Colby Lewis, and Jeff Samsdfasfjdioo;jia  on their staff this year. All above 4era's and above 185 innings.

 

But, if the Twins DO go out and sign a pitcher this year...it HAS to be Mike Leake! He is way too Twins-like NOT to have on our team. Just a guy who throws a ball, can approach 200 innings, puts a magnet on the baseball before he throws it, and outperforms his peripherals, and would be coming over from the easier league. 

 

Welcome aboard new team ace Leake! Just kidding, but I would not be one bit surprised at it, nor would I be surprised at people loving the signing here.

 

They like the Eddie George's and Leroy Hoard's of pitchers, "Need 1 yard? I will give you 3, need 5 yards? I will give you 3".....for 300 plus carries of mediocrity. 

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