Article: Why Not Wieters?

[kab21]

I really don't understand the concern about money.  Unless the Twins were serious about spending on an ace they have nowhere to spend money (aside from the bullpen) in the foreseeable future.

 

OF, 1B and DH - overflowing with prospects (and Mauer) and it is extremely unlikely that they go for a Chris Davis, Heyward or Upton type on a massive contract

2B/3B - locked down

SS - Escobar/Polanco (gordon in a few years) is probably better than anything you can acquire at a reasonable price

SP - no reason to add anyone unless it is an ace (very unlikely)

bullpen - spending big on RP'ers is one of the worst values out there

 

In addition to that very few players are going through arb in the next couple of seasons getting raises.  There are a lot of players that will make the MLB minimum.

[kab21]

 

 

Suzuki is only a must through 2016, so the $20M price tag for catcher would only be for a single season.

 

For the right move, a move that really helps the club, I feel a whole lot better losing a 17th pick than a top 10. (which we can't really lose anyway) And while I hated not signing our 2nd round pick this past draft, we get a compensatory pick this year in place, so if we did lose our 1st rounder, we would have two 2nd's.

 

So those aren't real issues for me. And despite being a catcher, there is nothing in particular to suggest Wieters will suddenly regress over the next 2 to 4 seasons to the point where he is a liability. Again, it's a defense first position, and you look for the best offense you can get.

 

What does bother me is the arm. Did I hear correctly? Something about catching less than half his team's games the past 2 seasons and no games caught back to back last year? His agent, naturally, will spin it as precautionary, how he is now 110% and ready to roll every day with no issues. 

 

Could I get excited about this signing? Yes.

 

But 4 years at $15-16M and reservations about his arm and longevity to stay behind the plate as a result...I just think I have to say no.

Why does his arm bother you?  The amount of games that he has missed is exactly what you would expect from a catcher recovering from TJ.  To spin a positive like that agent Wieters has a lot less wear and tear than the typical 30 yr old catcher due to missing most/part of 2 seasons.

[DocBauer]

I expect anyone to come back from TJ surgery and perform at a normal level. Look at Sano for instance. But if Wieters arm wasn't bothering him, then why did he catch so little? Why no 2 days in a row? That just makes me really paranoid that his recovery hasn't been 100%.

[nicksaviking]

Sounds exactly like our CF plan the last few years.

 

In other words, I heartily dis-endorse it.

Yeah but giving a four year deal to a CF wouldn't kill your roster if his defense or offense tanked, a team carries four or five anyway. You should only have two catchers, and there's nowhere to put this guy if the wheels fall off. When Mauer's deal is up, this would make more sense. Four years just isn't a good move for free agents over 30. Two years? Sure, I'll get on board.

[kab21]

 

I expect anyone to come back from TJ surgery and perform at a normal level. Look at Sano for instance. But if Wieters arm wasn't bothering him, then why did he catch so little? Why no 2 days in a row? That just makes me really paranoid that his recovery hasn't been 100%.

He came back at 12 months and for a catcher I would consider the recovery to be closer to a pitcher.  Pitchers can come back in 12 months but if they do then they are usually babied that first season.  Just like Wieters. 

 

The reason that Wieters is available at a discount is because of this issue.  If he had been healthier then he would be getting 5 or more years at 20+M.  Basically he would have exceeded McCann's contract.

[Shaitan]

 

More of a draft question, but don't the Twins get a pick for not signing the guy from Kentucky?  Did they get a competative balance pick again this next draft as well?

 

I don't recall the details, but yes.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah but giving a four year deal to a CF wouldn't kill your roster if his defense or offense tanked, a team carries four or five anyway. You should only have two catchers, and there's nowhere to put this guy if the wheels fall off. When Mauer's deal is up, this would make more sense. Four years just isn't a good move for free agents over 30. Two years? Sure, I'll get on board.

You simply aren't going to find a risk-less FA. By this argument we should just never sign a FA. I don't support that.

[USAFChief]

When did over 30 become the point at which all baseball players cease to be productive?

[Willihammer]

 

Move on to what?

Another trade, FA, or promotion.

 

Question for you - hypothetically, if the Twins sign Wieters to a 4/60 deal, and he pulls a Mauer or Suzuki at age 32, what is the Twins move?

[Shane Wahl]

Are some people not noticing the last three seasons defensively for Wieters? I am confused that there is this much hype at 4 years and $60 million. That seems like a *crazy* thing to do.

[kab21]

 

Are some people not noticing the last three seasons defensively for Wieters? I am confused that there is this much hype at 4 years and $60 million. That seems like a *crazy* thing to do.

He had TJ so please explain your concern.

[Shane Wahl]

 

He had TJ so please explain your concern.

 

I am not sure how that means anything. In fact, how does that do anything but support the concern that his defense is in decline?

[nicksaviking]

 

You simply aren't going to find a risk-less FA. By this argument we should just never sign a FA. I don't support that.

 

There are plenty of low risk free agents, they come on 1-2 year deals.  Those are the only kinds of free agents I'm supportive of at this time as the team already has Mauer, Santana, Hughes and Nolasco guaranteed to take up four of only 25 available roster spots because of their long term contracts.  The roster just can't be filled with untradable, unmovable veteran contracts or they'll end up like the Tigers, but with a lower quality group of veterans mucking up the works and fewer division titles to show for the moves.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

When did over 30 become the point at which all baseball players cease to be productive?

 

I don't want to say about the time PEDs became passe, but only two of the top 20 offensive players in WAR started the year over at an age over 30, and only three of the top 20 pitchers.  Of all pitchers and batters in the top 20, only Curtis Granderson was over the age of 32.

 

It sucks, but it's been headed this way for several years and I'm betting there are several GMs who are already planning to take advantage this.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Another trade, FA, or promotion.

 

Question for you - hypothetically, if the Twins sign Wieters to a 4/60 deal, and he pulls a Mauer or Suzuki at age 32, what is the Twins move?

Well, that means the Twins would have to find a stopgap replacement for 1-2 seasons.

 

Given that Nolasco will be off the books and Santana/Mauer will be in their final seasons, that shouldn't be terribly difficult.

 

Or hey, maybe Turner or another Twins prospect has come into his own by that point.

 

The Twins shouldn't be terribly concerned with what happens to payroll in 2018. They're trying to win baseball games in 2016. If the only "loss" to becoming a better team is money, I don't really care and neither should they (at least to a point). Any dollar they spend that brings improvement to the team is a dollar they'll probably get back at the ticket box.

 

Right now, winning baseball games is a very good investment for the Minnesota Twins. They could see increased ticket sales every year for the next half decade (and the increased TV revenue that goes along with winning).

[TNTwinsFan]

If I'm the Twins, Wieters is my #1 FA targrt. 3-4 years at $14-$16mm is fine by me. Our depth at catcher will begin to show up around year 2 or 3 and will provide those guys the opportunity to learn from two of the best Catchers in the game (Wieters and Mauer). Zuke comes off the books next year, so cost isn't really a huge issue. Catcher is a premium position, here is a solid chance to try to get a premium player who can help NOW. 17th rounder be damned (likely 5+ years away with absolutely NO guarantee they turn into a player of Wieters' caliber.) Get this guy signed by Saturday and then take him and his family to the best Sunday brunch Minneapolis has to offer and never look back!

[Willihammer]

 

Well, that means the Twins would have to find a stopgap replacement for 1-2 seasons.

 

Given that Nolasco will be off the books and Santana/Mauer will be in their final seasons, that shouldn't be terribly difficult.

 

Or hey, maybe Turner or another Twins prospect has come into his own by that point.

 

The Twins shouldn't be terribly concerned with what happens to payroll in 2018. They're trying to win baseball games in 2016. If the only "loss" to becoming a better team is money, I don't really care and neither should they (at least to a point). Any dollar they spend that brings improvement to the team is a dollar they'll probably get back at the ticket box.

 

Right now, winning baseball games is a very good investment for the Minnesota Twins. They could see increased ticket sales every year for the next half decade (and the increased TV revenue that goes along with winning).

I'm less concerned about payroll and more concerned about carrying a second can't catch, not good enough to DH player being under contract and hogging a roster spot. What do the Twins do with two of those players?

[Willihammer]

BTW can you imagine the "Twins are carrying four catchers again!" jokes if that happened.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm less concerned about payroll and more concerned about carrying a second can't catch, not good enough to DH player being under contract and hogging a roster spot. What do the Twins do with two of those players?

For a season? I might not care.

 

We all know that every FA is a risk and almost every 3+ year deal is not going to pay off in the final year or two (depending on contract length).

 

Those are the terms on which FA is built. You can either swallow that bitter pill, accept its reality, and improve the team or you can continue watching scrub after scrub rotate through this roster.

 

Personally, I'm really tired of seeing the latter. The Twins don't need to spend money on every position and I questioned their expenditure on Santana last season... But that doesn't mean they shouldn't spend money on any position. They need a catcher. They have zero chance of successfully filling that position internally (unlike the pitching situation last offseason).

 

So that means trade or buy. Given the likelihood of trade requiring a loss of Berrios and/or Kepler, I think buy is the pretty obvious choice here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm less concerned about payroll and more concerned about carrying a second can't catch, not good enough to DH player being under contract and hogging a roster spot. What do the Twins do with two of those players?

I think it's highly presumptive to say that "pulling a Mauer or Suzuki at age 32" means he physically can't catch at that point.  Heck, Suzuki CAN catch, we just don't want him to if we can find someone better.  I'd venture the percentage of catchers who physically can't play the position anymore at age 32 like Mauer is pretty low.  Off hand, I know Jaso has hung up his catcher's mask, but he was also a below average catcher to begin with.  Plenty others (Avila) have soldiered through multiple concussions.  And Wieters doesn't even have a documented concussion history that I'm aware of.

 

If Weiters falls off offensively, and even if he experiences some nagging injuries and a concussion, there's still a strong chance he can cover the position into his mid-30's like Jason Kendall, no worse than Suzuki is doing now and obviously with better upside.

[Willihammer]

 

For a season? I might not care.

 

We all know that every FA is a risk and almost every 3+ year deal is not going to pay off in the final year or two (depending on contract length).

 

Those are the terms on which FA is built. You can either swallow that bitter pill, accept its reality, and improve the team or you can continue watching scrub after scrub rotate through this roster.

 

Personally, I'm really tired of seeing the latter. The Twins don't need to spend money on every position and I questioned their expenditure on Santana last season... But that doesn't mean they shouldn't spend money on any position. They need a catcher. They have zero chance of successfully filling that position internally (unlike the pitching situation last offseason).

 

So that means trade or buy. Given the likelihood of trade requiring a loss of Berrios and/or Kepler, I think buy is the pretty obvious choice here.

I wouldn't trade Berrios either but its worth pointing out he was a # 30+ pick.

 

And they could sign a FA on a 1-2 year deal, keep the 17th pick, spend the savings elsewhere, and not have the inflexible roster in 2-3 years. I'm not opposed to a FA solution like that.

 

There are times I wish the Twins made bigger splashes in free agency. Signing a 30+ year old catcher to a long term contract when they already have one under contract is not one of those times.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wouldn't trade Berrios either but its worth pointing out he was a # 30+ pick.

Actually, that has no relevance. It's rare to hit on a guy like Berrios in the supplemental round. Who he is today is what's important, not where he was drafted. Did it impact Pujols' trade value that he was drafted in the 13th round?

 

And they could sign a FA on a 1-2 year deal, keep the 17th pick, spend the savings elsewhere, and not have the inflexible roster in 2-3 years. I'm not opposed to a FA solution like that.

Which I'd be in favor of if there was someone out there better than the current crop of players. The catching position is ugly this offseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't want to say about the time PEDs became passe, but only two of the top 20 offensive players in WAR started the year over at an age over 30, and only three of the top 20 pitchers.  Of all pitchers and batters in the top 20, only Curtis Granderson was over the age of 32.

 

It sucks, but it's been headed this way for several years and I'm betting there are several GMs who are already planning to take advantage this.

I don't think "top 20 WAR in MLB" is a terribly useful threshold here, when discussing a mid-tier free agent.  Nobody is suggesting buying him to be a top 20 WAR player in MLB.

 

Also WAR is a counting stat, which hurts catchers.  Aside from Posey who played a lot of 1B, the next best catcher by B-Ref WAR ranked #59 overall.  It's no guarantee, but it's not really that unlikely that over his age 30-33 seasons, Wieters could rank in the same vicinity as Vogt (age 30), Martin (age 32), and McCann (31) did last year.

[Willihammer]

 

Actually, that has no relevance. It's rare to hit on a guy like Berrios in the supplemental round. Who he is today is what's important, not where he was drafted. Did it impact Pujols' trade value that he was drafted in the 13th round?
 

Which I'd be in favor of if there was someone out there better than the current crop of players. The catching position is ugly this offseason.

IMO Saltalamacchia on a 1-2 year deal would be fine. AJ too.

 

Or a trade for someone who could be better than all of them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

IMO Saltalamacchia on a 1-2 year deal would be fine. AJ too.

 

Or a trade for someone who could be better than all of them.

Given the market, I can't see the Twins trading for a decent catcher without giving up Kepler and/or Berrios based on the quality of the trade target.

 

I could swallow losing Kepler but not Berrios. It all depends on what the other team wants.

 

And let's say the Brewers want Kepler + Gonsalves for Lucroy. At that point, giving up money + pick for Wieters seems like a pretty damned good deal, as Lucroy has the same question marks surrounding him.

 

I don't want AJ. He's due to completely fall off a cliff at a moment's notice and his defense is already terrible.

 

Salty is an interesting flyer but there's a good chance he's cooked. The Twins could easily enter 2016 in the same situation they were in 2015.

[Mike Sixel]

The majority of picks at 17 are not that great but if this pick happens to turn into Hamels or Halliday we would all crucify the FO.

that simply is not true.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Salty is an interesting flyer but there's a good chance he's cooked. The Twins could easily enter 2016 in the same situation they were in 2015.

Why do you say Salty is cooked?  He got cut by the Marlins, true, but he rebounded to a 115 OPS+ in Arizona.  Outside his 33 PA for the Marlins that got him cut in 2015, his low point the last 5 seasons was his 91 OPS+ in 2014.

 

I don't think he's great, but I don't think he's some kind of Bret Boone level flyer either.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why do you say Salty is cooked?  He got cut by the Marlins, true, but he rebounded to a 115 OPS+ in Arizona.  Outside his 33 PA for the Marlins that got him cut in 2015, his low point the last 5 seasons was his 91 OPS+ in 2014.

 

I don't think he's great, but I don't think he's some kind of Bret Boone level flyer either.

He's definitely better than Boone, which is why I'm not entirely against the idea.

 

But he's a pretty significant risk.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't think "top 20 WAR in MLB" is a terribly useful threshold here, when discussing a mid-tier free agent.  Nobody is suggesting buying him to be a top 20 WAR player in MLB.

 

Also WAR is a counting stat, which hurts catchers.  Aside from Posey who played a lot of 1B, the next best catcher by B-Ref WAR ranked #59 overall.  It's no guarantee, but it's not really that unlikely that over his age 30-33 seasons, Wieters could rank in the same vicinity as Vogt (age 30), Martin (age 32), and McCann (31) did last year.

 

I'd be open to seeing any kind of stats that show otherwise, but statistically and visually, to me it looks like guys are peaking very, very early these days.  Even look at last year's All-Star game, something that used to be loaded with veterans getting in based on their past reputations; it is now loaded with kids.  Just look at last year's Twins, from the rotation to the lineup, it was almost exclusively carried by the younger guys.

 

I don't disagree that there are still plenty of good contributors over 30, most are solid role players, but why on earth would anyone give a role player more than a two year deal?  Guys on 1-2 year deals can be traded if the season goes in the toilet or a young player emerges.  Guys on 1-2 year deals can be sent to the bench or DFA'd if they stink, we continue to see the Twins in awkward positions now because they have given too many guys 4-year deals.  It hasn't worked, they need to stop digging themselves into a deeper hole.

 

I'd be fine taking a chance on a couple long term deals to vets, but it's got to be quality over quantity.  From my perspective, two guys on a 4-year/80M deal are better than four guys on a 4-year/40M deal.

[Mike Sixel]

Guys are peaking earlier because (most) teams have realized that young players are more athletic, and are calling them up earlier.......at least that's what I read online.