Article: Why Not Wieters?

[Willihammer]

His framing took a hit too, which has been known to  happen as catchers age.

 

If the Twins want to solve the position long-term this winter, a trade would be a better route IMO.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Dioner Navarro is better defensively and Geovany Soto is comparable.  Odds are that he'd be better than both offensively, but it's not even close to a sure thing, they've both had seasons as good or better than Wieters offensively. I sure don't think he's 4 years, 60 million and a draft pick better than them.

 

C'mon Nick, there is a case to be made against Wieters but this isn't it.

 

In every healthy season Wieters has had since his professional start he's been about a .750 OPS player. 

 

Soto has done that once and hasn't been a full-time catcher in 5 years.   Navarro has only done it twice and only been a full-time catcher twice in his 12 year career.

 

These guys aren't comparable.  That's while you'll pay pennies on the dollar compared to Wieters.

[TheLeviathan]

 

His framing took a hit too, which has been known to  happen as catchers age.

 

If the Twins want to solve the position long-term this winter, a trade would be a better route IMO.

 

Who are we trading for?  Outside of Norris and (30 year old) Lucroy...who are we acquiring for the "long term"

 

I think people have a completely misguided notion on the availability of functional catchers in baseball.

[nicksaviking]

 

C'mon Nick, there is a case to be made against Wieters but this isn't it.

 

In every healthy season Wieters has had since his professional start he's been about a .750 OPS player. 

 

Well for one thing, healthy seasons on the wrong side of 30 aren't a given, and four in a row are going to take some luck.

 

My main point was that his defense could be replicated or even better, which seemed to be your sole argument for signing him instead of Pierzynski.  My underlying point was that his offense wasn't so far above average that other free agent catchers will have no chance at matching it.

[TheLeviathan]

His combination of offense and defense is considerably better than anyone else.

 

If your hang-up about catchers is durability...we may want to petition major league baseball for a robot catcher.  That's about the only way that concern is going to be avoided.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

 

I think people have a completely misguided notion on the availability of functional catchers in baseball.

 

No illusions here.  There's one good well-rounded catcher in the league and the Giants aren't selling. 

 

The difference between the rest isn't that big and becomes nearly negligible once you get past the top five or so.  Not everyone gets a stud catcher, it sucks.  The other 29 teams will have to figure out other ways to win.

[Willihammer]

 

Who are we trading for?  Outside of Norris and (30 year old) Lucroy...who are we acquiring for the "long term"

 

I think people have a completely misguided notion on the availability of functional catchers in baseball.

If you define functional as an established veteran catcher then you are going to be limited of course. I would expand the definition to include younger, cheaper, less worn down and less proven players. Someone along the lines of Roberto Perez, JR Murphy or Martin Maldonado maybe.

[s1xthw1]

17th overall picks by WAR going back to 1965:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=17&draft_type=junreg&

 

I wouldn't let the 17th overall pick be the piece that sways the Twins from doing this if it comes down to it. As I mentioned before, my biggest concern would be how much longer does Wieters stay a catcher. Nick Nelson doesn't seem to think that is a concern yet.

 

If he is signed for 4 years $60M and plays catcher the whole 4 years. I'd do it.

 

You mean you don't mind giving up the next Steve Brye??? Only Twins 17th pick in the 1st round.

[USAFChief]

I am opposed to continually sorting through dumpsters as the primary source for bullpen arms. Similarly, I don't see the benefits of doing the same to fill a position, particularly one as important as catcher.

 

A one year flyer on someone unlikely to help win games isn't a solution to anything.

[Vanimal46]

 

If you define functional as an established veteran catcher then you are going to be limited of course. I would expand the definition to include younger, cheaper, less worn down and less proven players. Someone along the lines of Roberto Perez, JR Murphy or Martin Maldonado maybe.

 

It's a good thought, but I don't see any of those options usurping the starting spot from Suzuki... And IMO that should be the top priority to find someone who can take the majority of starts so Suzuki's vesting option for 2017 doesn't happen. 

[Shaitan]

I'd take Weiters for 1-3 years without losing a pick, but I think he has too many red flags for a risk any larger than that.

 

Out of curiosity, when is the last time the Twins signed a (starter) free agent from the AL East? I feel like that division drives up the cost of their free agents too.

 

[Shaitan]

 

Why AJ?
4. Terry reliving maybe his greatest GM move
 

 

Unrelated, but I wouldn't be surprised if they offer a minor league contract to Nathan too.

[Mike Sixel]

I count more than 10 with a wRC+ (pick your offensive stat) at 100 or so (with 300 ABs or more). That's a lot more than 5 that can hit. Indeed, if you drop down "good hitting catcher" to 85, there are 17.

 

Suzuki had a 66.....

 

IIRC, last year there was a stat that more than 10 of the catchers with more WAR than Kurt joined their team AFTER he joined the Twins. Options are out there, and are every year. The Twins need to do better than bottom 5.

[Trevor0333]

For Mauers flaws, this is exactly why he was soo valuable. Legit 2 way catchers are so rare. Maybe the QO will depress his value contract wise some. I really don't like the idea of giving up a 1st & 16 mill for 4-5 years for a 30 year old catcher.

 

The Twins trio of prospects at C are optimistically 2 years away & they are on the outer edge of competing now. Leaving a black hole in at C would be a big mistake.

 

If the Brewers are selling & you can get Lucroy for a C prospect, K. Stewart, & Arcia. That's as high as I go. Otherwise hope for Norris/Pena types & if that falls through AJ/Suzuki isn't terrible for 1 year.

[Nick Nelson]

 

It's a good thought, but I don't see any of those options usurping the starting spot from Suzuki... And IMO that should be the top priority to find someone who can take the majority of starts so Suzuki's vesting option for 2017 doesn't happen. 

I don't think that's a major issue. The PA total required to vest his 2017 option is 485 and he came short of that this year, even with no legitimate backups and no time spent on the disabled list. At the very least, the Twins are going to find someone to split time with him.

[tobi0040]

The realities are this:

 

We have Zuke for another year at $6M and he is not really a starter at this point in his career.  His OPS was .610 and he threw out 15% of runners last year

 

We could probably contend next year with a better catcher.  That is more of an opinion.  The catcher position is the one that offers the best hope for improvement.  That is fact.

 

Teams just don't trade away young, good catching prospects.

 

We have absolutely nothing in the pipeline, next year or three or four years out

 

We are not signing Weiters and giving up a 1st round pick

 

We will either trade for Lucroy or sign a guy like AJ.  More likely AJ

[Loosey]

 

I'd take Weiters for 1-3 years without losing a pick, but I think he has too many red flags for a risk any larger than that.

 

Out of curiosity, when is the last time the Twins signed a (starter) free agent from the AL East? I feel like that division drives up the cost of their free agents too.

2 years ago.

[DocBauer]

Suzuki is only a must through 2016, so the $20M price tag for catcher would only be for a single season.

 

For the right move, a move that really helps the club, I feel a whole lot better losing a 17th pick than a top 10. (which we can't really lose anyway) And while I hated not signing our 2nd round pick this past draft, we get a compensatory pick this year in place, so if we did lose our 1st rounder, we would have two 2nd's.

 

So those aren't real issues for me. And despite being a catcher, there is nothing in particular to suggest Wieters will suddenly regress over the next 2 to 4 seasons to the point where he is a liability. Again, it's a defense first position, and you look for the best offense you can get.

 

What does bother me is the arm. Did I hear correctly? Something about catching less than half his team's games the past 2 seasons and no games caught back to back last year? His agent, naturally, will spin it as precautionary, how he is now 110% and ready to roll every day with no issues. 

 

Could I get excited about this signing? Yes.

 

But 4 years at $15-16M and reservations about his arm and longevity to stay behind the plate as a result...I just think I have to say no.

 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Any chance that Josmil Pinto could rebound from a lost season? 

 

Anyone with a good bat capable of converting to catcher? Maybe one of the Outfielders? Wasn't Kepler catching at one point? (This is a terrible idea, nevermind, forget it.)

 

Any international options? Is there a Catcher version of Jung ho Kang in Korea? Where are all the Cuban Catching prospects?

 

Wieters is a long shot, not just because the Twins are gun-shy, but also because Wieters may have more interest in places like Atlanta (he went to Georgia Tech), or staying in the AL East (Tampa Bay?)

 

[Tom Froemming]

I'd rather see them hold on to talent that's already in house than make trades, and it seems like a safer bet to spend on a catcher than a reliever (those being the biggest areas of need).

 

I wouldn't be shocked if Wieters' best days are ahead of him. He was raking before getting hurt in '14 and finished strong this season. Anybody else see that potential, or am I seeing a mirage?

[zenser]

More of a draft question, but don't the Twins get a pick for not signing the guy from Kentucky?  Did they get a competative balance pick again this next draft as well?

[TheLeviathan]

 

If you define functional as an established veteran catcher then you are going to be limited of course. I would expand the definition to include younger, cheaper, less worn down and less proven players. Someone along the lines of Roberto Perez, JR Murphy or Martin Maldonado maybe.

 

Those gentleman are not "functional".  They are "prayers".

 

If you want to check in on Hedges or Plawecki - sure.  But those guys will cost a ransom of near ready young players.

 

Wieters only costs cash and a lottery ticket of a pick.  If you're so worried about the cash, charge an extra dollar for every crummy Budweiser you buy at one of the 17,000 bars at Target Field.  Call it Waterholes for Wieters.  

 

It's just money.  We have plenty, why waste time dumpster diving?

[Willihammer]

 

Those gentleman are not "functional".  They are "prayers".

 

If you want to check in on Hedges or Plawecki - sure.  But those guys will cost a ransom of near ready young players.

 

Wieters only costs cash and a lottery ticket of a pick.  If you're so worried about the cash, charge an extra dollar for every crummy Budweiser you buy at one of the 17,000 bars at Target Field.  Call it Waterholes for Wieters.  

 

It's just money.  We have plenty, why waste time dumpster diving?

Matt Wieters isn't the last functional catcher there will be. If the Twins scouts are able to identify a young talent in someone's system they believe can be functional for them, then that seems like a more cost effective route and quite possibly a better one in absolute terms, because we know 30+ year old catchers don't typically produce as they did in their 20s, with a few exceptions (like AJ), and very often have to be moved off the position altogether. Since the Twins already have one of those players, and he is a big fat logjam in the system, there is additional downside of having two of those types under contract. On the other hand if a cheap young catcher doesn't work out, the Twins can just outright him and move on.

[Mike Sixel]

Move on to what?

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I think I'd go after Hedges, Norris, or Lucroy before I went after Weiters personally. 

 

Here's the question I have.  What's up with Pinto?  We know he can hit (this season's injury issues aside).  At what point does he become a viable option in this discussion?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Matt Wieters isn't the last functional catcher there will be. If the Twins scouts are able to identify a young talent in someone's system they believe can be functional for them, then that seems like a more cost effective route and quite possibly a better one in absolute terms, because we know 30+ year old catchers don't typically produce as they did in their 20s, with a few exceptions (like AJ), and very often have to be moved off the position altogether. Since the Twins already have one of those players, and he is a big fat logjam in the system, there is additional downside of having two of those types under contract. On the other hand if a cheap young catcher doesn't work out, the Twins can just outright him and move on.

 

Sounds exactly like our CF plan the last few years.

 

In other words, I heartily dis-endorse it.

[dbminn]

No. It's a seller's market for FA catchers and the risk isn't worth the cost of Weiters.  Instead of clogging the budget, we can spend some prospect capital on a young catcher. Plawecki, Norris and Hedges have already been mentioned. I'd include Hector Sanchez (Giants) and Austin Barnes (Dodgers) as well. Both the Giants and the Dodgers need pitching, so Gibson might be a good piece to offer as part of a package. He would play well at both home stadiums. These guys will cost good players, but we need a quality catcher that can grow with the current crop of Twins prospects.

[Thrylos]

Interesting.  I just finished analyzing all 20 free agent catchers to see who is the best fit for the Twins, and Wieters was a finalist.  For one I think that it will take less $ to sign (esp. since there is a pick to go.)  I think that a 4/48 is probably the baseline here.  

 

In a kind of ironic way, if the Twins were not competing next season, and were looking to build for the next 4 seasons, Wieters might be the guy, even though it definitely is a higher risk/high reward situation and someone might be getting a bargain here.   The Twins do need the $ to address the biggest issue in 2015 and that was the bullpen.  Catcher, yes, is an issues, but they can do ok without Wieters.    So Wieters was not my choice either, but for different reasons...

[Major League Ready]

 

You mean you don't mind giving up the next Steve Brye??? Only Twins 17th pick in the 1st round.

The majority of picks at 17 are not that great but if this pick happens to turn into Hamels or Halliday we would all crucify the FO.

[USAFChief]

No. It's a seller's market for FA catchers and the risk isn't worth the cost of Weiters.  Instead of clogging the budget, we can spend some prospect capital on a young catcher. Plawecki, Norris and Hedges have already been mentioned. I'd include Hector Sanchez (Giants) and Austin Barnes (Dodgers) as well. Both the Giants and the Dodgers need pitching, so Gibson might be a good piece to offer as part of a package. He would play well at both home stadiums. These guys will cost good players, but we need a quality catcher that can grow with the current crop of Twins prospects.

It seems to me the cost of one Twins starter, as part of a package, to acquire a catcher that may or may not help at some point in the future, far exceeds the cost of money and a draft pick.

 

Anyway, Barnes might not even end up at catcher, and Sanchez doesn't hit.