Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 8: 1-5

[Seth Stohs]

We’ve been counting down the Top 50 Minnesota Twins Prospects (at least my preliminary version of it) over the last two weeks. Finally, we are to the Top 5. These names are all familiar, probably no surprises. You already know a lot about them, but let’s get to it. Here are the top five Twins prospects.

 

As always, please feel free to discuss these prospects in the comments below. Also, it’s time for you to come up with your top prospect list. Create a Blog here at Twins Daily and post your thoughts. Or, share your rankings in this forum.Previous installments of this prospect ranking:

• Part 1 (41-50)
• Part 2 (31-40)
• Part 3 (26-30)
• Part 4 (21-25)
• Part 5 (16-20)
• Part 6 (11-15)
• Part 7 (6-10)

As a quick reminder, players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2016 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)

 

Top Prospects 1-5

 

 

#5 – Tyler Jay - 16 – LHP – Ft. Myers Miracle

 

The Twins had the sixth overall pick in the 2015 draft. After selecting high school players with their first pick the previous three years, they went with a college pitcher. Tyler Jay was named the Big Ten Pitcher of the Year in 2015, his third season at the University of Illinois. He became the fourth pitcher in the Twins organization to have won that award (Glen Perkins 2004, Alex Wimmers 2010, Aaron Slegers 2013). Jay pitched primarily out of the bullpen, though he usually pitched several innings at a time. He will get an opportunity to start with the Twins, likely starting in Ft. Myers. That’s where he began his professional career after signing for just shy of $3.9 million.

 

Overall, he went 0-1 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 19 games. In 18.1 innings, he walked eight and struck out 22. But a closer look at the numbers is important too. In his first seven games, opponents hit .344 off and he posted an 8.10 ERA. Over his final 12 outings of the year, he posted a 1.54 ERA and opponents hit just .171.

 

According to Jeremy Nygaard’s terrific 2015 Twins Draft Book, Jay has a fastball that sits 92 to 95 mph but can touch 98 at times. He has a mid-80s change-up, a low-80s slider and a high-70s curve ball. That pitch mix is certainly a big part of why many believe that he can make the transition to starter. As a starter, the Twins will be wise to be a little more patient. If he were to move to the bullpen, he could move quickly.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A

 

 

#4 – Nick Gordon - 20 – SS – Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

Gordon was the Twins first pick in 2014, the fifth overall pick, out of Olympia High School in Orlando, Florida. The son of former All-Star Tom Gordon and the brother of current All-Star and NL batting champ Dee Gordon, Nick has incredible genes and incredible tools. He’s not as fast as Dee, but he has well above average speed. He has a smooth, line-drive, gap-to-gap swing that gets through the batting zone very quickly. He should hit for average, but as he continues to grow and gain strength, he could develop into a 12-18 home run-a-year guy.

 

Defensively, he is very solid. In over 1,055 innings in 2015 for Cedar Rapids, he posted a .966 fielding percentage. He has good range and a very strong arm. The sixth tool, plate discipline and approach, has also become something people discuss. Gordon is good and will continue to improve in that aspect. He walked in just over 7%, but he takes very good at-bats.

 

Overall, he hit .277/.336/.360 (.696). Very solid numbers for a 19-year-old in the Midwest League. It is more impressive than it looks because he had a rough stretch early in the season. After hitting .318 over the team’s first 11 games, he hit .182/.243/.202 (.445) over his next 25 games. Over his final 99 games, he hit .299/.361/.399 (.760) with 21 doubles, five triples and a home run. On the year, Gordon stole 25 bases. He is a terrific athlete with all the tools and a very high baseball IQ. He has a chance to be the Twins shortstop for many years, but it is going to take a few years for him to get there. Be patient.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (4)

 

 

#3 – Max Kepler - 23 – OF/1B – Chattanooga Lookouts/Minnesota Twins

 

2015 was an important season for Kepler. Not that the organization has not been plenty patient with him, but he began to show that some of those incredible tools would become skills. He responded with a season that earned him the Twins (and Twins Daily’s) Minor League Hitter of the Year. In 112 games with the Lookouts, he hit .322/.416/.531 (.947) with 32 doubles, 13 triples and nine home runs. Then he was named the Southern League’s Most Valuable Player. He added a couple of big home runs in the Lookouts championship run. Moments after that championship, Kepler learned he had been called up to the big leagues. He got just seven at-bats. On the final day of the season, he made his first start and got his first hit, a single to right off of Johnny Cueto.

 

At 6-4 and 220 pounds, Kepler is very strong and has the potential to hit a lot of home runs. He combines that power with a lot of speed. He can play all three outfield positions, including center field, though he is more of a corner guy. He also is very good at first base. He has a pretty swing from the left-side and uses the whole field. His arm is a bit above average.

 

On July 2, 2009, the Twins gave Kepler the highest signing bonus (at that time) to a European signee. He was 16 and came to the States. He finished high school quickly. He spent one season in the GCL and two in Elizabethton. Since then, it has been one level each year until this year in Chattanooga. Kepler is likely to spend a good chunk of the 2016 season in Rochester. However, with the adjustments he has made and the numbers he has put up, if the Twins have a need at 1B or in the outfield in 2016, don’t be surprised to see Kepler called up at any time.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (13), 2014 (9), 2013 (10), 2012 (18), 2011 (16), 2010 (29)

 

 

#2 – JO Berrios – 21 – RHP – Chattanooga Lookouts/Rochester Red Wings

 

The Twins had a supplemental first-round draft pick (32^nd overall) in the 2012 draft thanks to losing free agent Michael Cuddyer. They used that pick on a skinny right-hander from Puerto Rico named Jose Berrios. He signed quickly. After posting a 1.08 ERA in 16.2 innings in the GCL, he moved up to Elizabethton and posted a 1.29 ERA in three starts, helping them to the Appy League title. In 30.2 combined innings, he walked four and struck out 49. The next spring, he pitched out of the bullpen for Puerto Rico in the WBC. He began his season late with Cedar Rapids. In 2014, he took a major leap forward statistically and in prospect rankings. He went 9-3 with a 1.97 ERA in 16 starts with the Miracle. He was promoted to New Britain and went 3-4 with a 3.54 ERA in eight starts. He also started for the World Team in the Futures Game at Target Field. He was named the Twins Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year by Twins Daily and the Twins named him their Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

 

In 2015, he was even better. He went 8-3 with a 3.08 ERA in 15 starts. He was promoted to Rochester where he was 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA in 12 starts. He was named the starting pitcher for the second straight year in the Futures Game. He was again the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year and the Twins choice for Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

 

Berrios’s stuff is well documented, and his work ethic certainly can’t be questioned. He has a fastball in the low-to-mid-90s. He has a very sharp curve ball. He also has a very good change-up. He has great poise and strong makeup. No question he was disappointed not to end his 2015 season with the Twins. It’s likely it will motivate him even more for 2016. He’s likely to start back at Rochester, but don’t be surprised if we see him in Minnesota before the All-Star break, possibly even by May.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (3), 2014 (7), 2013 (8)

 

#1 – Byron Buxton – 22 – OF –Chattanooga Lookouts/Minnesota Twins/Rochester Red Wings

 

Byron Buxton made his MLB debut in early June. It was clear that he wasn’t ready offensively as Doug Mientkiewicz said at that time. The 21-year-old struggled mightily with the bat in his big league debut. Even with a strong last few games, he hit just .209/.250/.326 in 46 games. He finished the season with 129 at-bats which means he will be eligible and a favorite for 2016 American League Rookie of the Year.

 

After missing most of 2014 with a variety of injuries, 2015 was a very streaky year for baseball’s top prospect (or at least top two). Consider these streaks:

• First 12 Games: .180/.241/.300 (.541)
• Next 16 Games: .338/.395/.662 (1.056)
• Next 8 Games: .118/.143/.206 (.349) – includes a 3-hit game with a 2B & 3B
• Next 7 Games: .438/.486/.938 (1.423)
• Next 7 Games: .154/.290/.154 (.444)
• Next 8 Games: .467/.541/.567 (1.107)

And that’s when he was called up to the big leagues. As we all know, a nemesis of his arrived. He injured his thumb after two weeks and missed about six weeks. He returned to play at Rochester where he hit in all 13 games he played. He hit .400/.441/.545 (.986) with three doubles, a triple and a home run. That’s the type of numbers he can put up in stints, though observers noted that he wasn’t exactly making solid contact during that stretch. However, Aaron Hicks went on the DL and Buxton was called back up. He struggled with the bat, but his defense is still very valuable to the team and specifically to the pitching staff.

 

Buxton will remain the number one (again, possible #2) prospect in all of baseball going into the 2016 season. Some will look at his struggles in the big leagues and think he’s less of a prospect. Just no. He turns 22 in December. He has elite, world-class speed. He is elite defensively, and he has a plus-plus arm.

 

Offensively, he is still projected to become a solid hitter for average, and as we saw late in the year, he has enough power to hit some long home runs. One was to deep left field, the other was just to the right field side of center field. He has good bat speed to generate that kind of power. He is patient at the plate, sometimes to a fault.

 

The off-season will be interesting. Will Buxton begin the 2016 season manning center field for the Twins, or for the Red Wings? Either way, his future is very bright.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (1), 2014 (1), 2013 (2)

 

So, what do you think of Part 8, the top five prospects? And how do you feel about the overall Top 50? Were there names missing? And again, please feel free to create a blog and post your Top 50 or leave one in this forum.

 

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[Thegrin]

How lucky the Twins are.  In almost all organizations, Max Kepler would be #1. With the Twins he is #3.  The next few years are going to be fun fun fun.  

[Badsmerf]

Very strong list. All these guys should be top 100 prospects right? Jay is the only questionable one, but he was such a high draft pick I don't see how he is left off. 

 

 

Thanks for the list Seth. You've done a great job developing this site and providing excellent content. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think Kepler is a real possiblity to earn that open corner position come spring, especially if Arcia falls on his face.  I'm looking forward to seeing Buxton and Kepler in Rochester this year.  I think both could get off to some hot starts and have us clamoring to have them up.

[HitInAPinch]

I rate more on the overall progress:  who progressed when moving to the next level.  138 PA's for Buxton put's him 3rd in my book:

 

#1 Kepler, #2 Berrios, #3 Buxton. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think Kepler is a real possiblity to earn that open corner position come spring, especially if Arcia falls on his face.  I'm looking forward to seeing Buxton and Kepler in Rochester this year.  I think both could get off to some hot starts and have us clamoring to have them up.

 

I think Kepler will get a real chance for that to happen. However, he's 23, needs to play every day, so they won't and shouldn't call him up to platoon or play part time. For him to make it, he'll have to be the starter.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Very strong list. All these guys should be top 100 prospects right? Jay is the only questionable one, but he was such a high draft pick I don't see how he is left off. 

 

 

Thanks for the list Seth. You've done a great job developing this site and providing excellent content. 

 

I would think that my top four should all be top 100s. Jay and Polanco are probably likely close. 

[2wins87]

A couple guys that I think should be in the top 50:

 

Luis Arraez, Jean Carlos Arias, and Huascar Ynoa.  Obviously they are all very young and hard to project, but their upside should get them on the list.

 

I'd also include Eades who was mentioned in a previous thread.  He's disappointing for where he was drafted but he had a nice season and still has a good chance of playing in the majors.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd love to see Kepler up in April, but it's not going to happen. As for Jay, he's a college junior, he should move relatively quickly to the majors, if he's worthy of a top 10 pick....think Garza path. Still not sure how I feel about the pick, but we'll see.

 

Gordon looks like a keeper.

[Vanimal46]

Very exciting names to end the list. With Nick Gordon I see he's listed as 6 foot, 160 lbs. I realize he's 20 and has some growing to do, but do the Twins want him to put some meat on those bones? Or does it not matter for a speedy SS like him?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Very exciting names to end the list. With Nick Gordon I see he's listed as 6 foot, 160 lbs. I realize he's 20 and has some growing to do, but do the Twins want him to put some meat on those bones? Or does it not matter for a speedy SS like him?

 

He's already well more than that... He''s not skin and bones. He's got plenty of room to grow, but he's not 160 anymore either. He's strong. I think if he can get to that 180-190 range, that would be great.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'd love to see Kepler up in April, but it's not going to happen. As for Jay, he's a college junior, he should move relatively quickly to the majors, if he's worthy of a top 10 pick....think Garza path. Still not sure how I feel about the pick, but we'll see.

Gordon looks like a keeper.

 

I actually agree with you Mike... I didn't get the Jay pick, but I'm also always happy to be wrong when I think like that. I don't know how his transition to full-time starter will go. No one does. We can all project, but we don't know. I think he's got the pitch mix to do it, but you never know. 

 

Garza was picked like 27th overall and was always a starter. Gibson would have been up within two years of being drafted if not for the Tommy John surgery. He was taken something like 21st. Wimmers was taken 22nd and he has fought injuries and such. 

 

I loved the idea of the Twins taken Kevin Gausman in 2012. Still like his potential. He got to the big leagues really fast, but it hasn't taken yet. What if they would have been more patient? 

 

I don't get so down on these things and I don't worry about how fast they get there because 1.) I can't control that, and 2.) I don't know what's best for them... 

 

I think Jay could be up next year if he's in the bullpen. If it's as a starter, I think it's in 2017 or 2018.

[Seth Stohs]

 

A couple guys that I think should be in the top 50:

 

Luis Arraez, Jean Carlos Arias, and Huascar Ynoa.  Obviously they are all very young and hard to project, but their upside should get them on the list.

 

I'd also include Eades who was mentioned in a previous thread.  He's disappointing for where he was drafted but he had a nice season and still has a good chance of playing in the majors.

 

Luis Arraez was in Part 1 (I think)... something in the 40s. The other two weren't top international guys, so we didn't include them. As I've mentioned, I typically haven't included players until they've played at least at the GCL level. Arias and Ynoa haven't. Both probably will next year, along with Javier. We (Jeremy, Cody and I) decided that due to Javier's international status and signing bonus, we would include him. 

[Mike Sixel]

Good point on Jay likely taking longer, seems so obvious when you type it up.

 

As for Gausman, if they'd stop moving him back and forth on the rubber, and stop telling him not to use his best pitch (sound familiar?), he'd be better, I think. Some teams are good at things (Cardinals somehow turning "meh" hitters into machines at the MLB level), and some are bad at things (Orioles and pitchers, imo). I'm not alone on these thoughts on the O's.....If they O's would sell low on Kevin, I'd be all over that.

[Guest]

We could debate the order, but can't argue with this top 5. Good choices, Seth.

 

One thing I'd probably question is the potential for Nick Gordon to be a 12-18 HR guy someday. He certainly has room to grow and should add strength, but I don't think his frame is going to see a Buxton-type body on it at any point. If he becomes a 5-6 HR guy, I'll be very pleased. Any more than that will really surprise me. That's not a criticism because I think he's got All-Star SS potential without any more power than that.

 

Totally agree on Buxton. I'm not concerned about him in the least. Quite the opposite. I'm really looking forward to seeing him break out at the big league level in 2016.

[ashbury]

I'm not ready to rank Jay that highly just yet. It's a gamble to convert him back to a starter and that gamble hasn't even begun, since he pitched only an inning or so at a time for us.

 

I suppose he has a fairly high floor as a reliever, but that doesn't scream #5 to me, either. I'm not sure I'm ready to anoint him top-10, even. A year from now, probably, yeah.

[Seth Stohs]

 

We could debate the order, but can't argue with this top 5. Good choices, Seth.

 

One thing I'd probably question is the potential for Nick Gordon to be a 12-18 HR guy someday. He certainly has room to grow and should add strength, but I don't think his frame is going to see a Buxton-type body on it at any point. If he becomes a 5-6 HR guy, I'll be very pleased. Any more than that will really surprise me. That's not a criticism because I think he's got All-Star SS potential without any more power than that.

 

Totally agree on Buxton. I'm not concerned about him in the least. Quite the opposite. I'm really looking forward to seeing him break out at the big league level in 2016.

 

I'd note, for those who aren't aware, SD Buhr is from Cedar Rapids and covered the Kernels in most home (and several road) games this year. In other words, he saw Gordon play about 100 games this year, and got to talk to him from time to time. His opinion on anyone from the Kernels is must-read.

 

Alright, SD Buhr... We'll put a beverage at Bushwood on Gordon's career-high for home runs. I'll take over 10. Do you take the under?

[Guest]

 

 

 

Alright, SD Buhr... We'll put a beverage at Bushwood on Gordon's career-high for home runs. I'll take over 10. Do you take the under?

 

Funny how you drop from "12-18" down to 10 when you have to put your money on the line!

 

I'd say he's almost as likely to be closer to a total of 10 big league HRs in his career than 10 in a season, so I'd definitely take the under on a high of 10 in a season.

 

Of course, you may have to pay off the bet by buying my son (or even one of my grandsons) a beer at Bushwood, however, since I'm probably a good bet to be long gone before Gordon's MLB career is over.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Funny how you drop from "12-18" down to 10 when you have to put your money on the line!

 

 

You were at 5-6, so I gave you some room, and I took some as well. Ha!

[ashbury]

Funny how you drop from "12-18" down to 10 when you have to put your money on the line!

I took it more as him being a smart gambler who knows how to set a line to get the action he wants. I suddenly would not go up against him.

 

_{^{/ edit - I see that Seth responded simultaneously along similar lines}}

[Thrylos]

 

Tyler Jay was named the Big Ten Pitcher of the Year in 2015, his third season at the University of Illinois. He became the fourth pitcher in the Twins organization to have won that award (Glen Perkins 2004, Alex Wimmers 2010, Aaron Slegers 2013).

 

I really would not use the aforementioned company as an argument of ranking Jay in the top 5 of the Twins' prospects list;  it detracts from the argument, because it exposes Big Ten as not quite the baseball powerhouse

 

That said, I agree, he is the second best Twins' pitching prospect other than Berrios, if you count players with no major league experience (that's where I draw the line.)  If you do, Meyer is still better than both of them.

 

Hard time seeing Buxton in this list with 92 days of MLB service... More than half on the DL and riding pine, but that is more than half of an MLB-season...

[DocBauer]

I would think that my top four should all be top 100s. Jay and Polanco are probably likely close.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Polanco in the last top 100? I'd think his season should warrant inclusion.

 

What about Gonsalves? Is he just a little too young at this point to make the list? Or do you think he's got a shot?

[jokin]

 

I rate more on the overall progress:  who progressed when moving to the next level.  138 PA's for Buxton put's him 3rd in my book:

 

#1 Kepler, #2 Berrios, #3 Buxton. 

 

#1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball, and only 3# on the Twins....?

 

Nope

[Badsmerf]

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Polanco in the last top 100? I'd think his season should warrant inclusion. What about Gonsalves? Is he just a little too young at this point to make the list? Or do you think he's got a shot?

Gonsalves has too many skeptics still. He has a good feel for his breaking ball, and scouts have said that allowed him to dominate the low levels of the minors. When he starts facing more advanced hitters that can handle breaking stuff and make him pitch that FB we'll see how he does. I think he is on the radar though.

[DocBauer]

I'd love to see Kepler up in April, but it's not going to happen. As for Jay, he's a college junior, he should move relatively quickly to the majors, if he's worthy of a top 10 pick....think Garza path. Still not sure how I feel about the pick, but we'll see.Gordon looks like a keeper.

 

It seems to me the last draft was a bigger grab bag of unpredictability than normal, injuries, poor years, split opinions on potential, etc. And with the Twins not expected to be picking at the top of the draft for the near future, I argued it was the perfect year for the Twins to take a chance on the biggest upside they could find, preferably a SP since no catcher was viable.

 

That being said...or re-stated...I really liked the Jay pick. Some would call it a safe pick, any maybe it was; proven college career, can/should be a quality reliever if starting falls through. And there is real value in that. But quality LHSP with real upside is one of the hardest things to find.

 

Gordon has surprised me. I am no scout. I read and learn. But I just didn't see Gordon as a top 5 pick when I read scouting reports. It seemed like nobody was overly impressed with any specific skill, and his scale numbers all seemed to linger around 50, maybe one 60, and compared to other recent picks and signings, I just wasn't sure he was really a top pick/prospect. Clearly, I mis-read or the reports were just very conservative. He clearly looks like the real deal. But man...if he could add another 15lbs or so of man muscle over the next couple of years, we might actually witness the best overall SS in Twins history. Granted we're talking so back breaking limbo of a bar here, but still.....

[DocBauer]

I know it's easy for us as fans to get wrapped up in reports, projections, rankings, hope, etc, and maybe become a little sun blind to the golden glare of prospects' various status and projectability.

 

For those of us that have been reading various prospect lists for 10, 20, 30 years and can remember the likes of Banks, Gasser, Marte, Sontag and many others, we know how fickle a mistress fate and projectability can be.

 

But as I look at this top 10 list, other than Stewart who I have some real questions about, the only real "flaw" or concern I have is contact from Walker. Even a little improvement, and I see he and the rest of the group as ALL making the majors and contributing, if not reaching regular/star status.

[Mike Sixel]

I know it's easy for us as fans to get wrapped up in reports, projections, rankings, hope, etc, and maybe become a little sun blind to the golden glare of prospects' various status and projectability.

 

For those of us that have been reading various prospect lists for 10, 20, 30 years and can remember the likes of Banks, Gasser, Marte, Sontag and many others, we know how fickle a mistress fate and projectability can be.

 

But as I look at this top 10 list, other than Stewart who I have some real questions about, the only real "flaw" or concern I have is contact from Walker. Even a little improvement, and I see he and the rest of the group as ALL making the majors and contributing, if not reaching regular/star status.

Agreed.

[DJL44]

I hope they turn Jay into a starter in Ft Myers next season.

[Loosey]

 

We could debate the order, but can't argue with this top 5. Good choices, Seth.

 

One thing I'd probably question is the potential for Nick Gordon to be a 12-18 HR guy someday. He certainly has room to grow and should add strength, but I don't think his frame is going to see a Buxton-type body on it at any point. If he becomes a 5-6 HR guy, I'll be very pleased. Any more than that will really surprise me. That's not a criticism because I think he's got All-Star SS potential without any more power than that.

 

Totally agree on Buxton. I'm not concerned about him in the least. Quite the opposite. I'm really looking forward to seeing him break out at the big league level in 2016.

I'm with you on Buxton.  If you were to go and watch video of him in his first stint with the Twins and then watch video of him in his last week or two of the season I think you would be seeing an almost different player.  Even though he wasn't a world beater by any means towards the end, the quality of his at bats and the contact he was making were tenfold better than his first stint.

 

I think he only gets better for the next few years in big leagues.  I still think he is All-Star quality all around player.  If he hits slightly better than people project him he could be MVP quality.  Just my two cents.

[Loosey]

 

Gonsalves has too many skeptics still. He has a good feel for his breaking ball, and scouts have said that allowed him to dominate the low levels of the minors. When he starts facing more advanced hitters that can handle breaking stuff and make him pitch that FB we'll see how he does. I think he is on the radar though.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought Gonsalves said he was NOT throwing a breaking ball in Cedar Rapids and essentially getting guys out with a good fastball/change up mix and excellent, excellent control.  It seems that he was told to get out better hitters in high-A he had to start throwing the breaking stuff because the more advanced hitters would sit on fastballs and change ups and hit them hard no matter where they are located unless he mixed in a breaking ball.