Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 7: 6-10

[Seth Stohs]

Alright, we’ve been counting down my preliminary Top 50 Minnesota Twins prospects for the last couple of weeks. Over the next two days, you will find out who I have included in my personal Top 10 list. Despite the ‘graduations’ of Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano, this group of ten remains quite impressive. As always, please feel free to discuss these prospects in the comments below.Previous installments of this prospect ranking:

• Part 1 (41-50)
• Part 2 (31-40)
• Part 3 (26-30)
• Part 4 (21-25)
• Part 5 (16-20)
• Part 6 (11-15)

As a quick reminder, players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2016 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)

 

 

Top Prospects 6-10

 

#10 – Kohl Stewart - 21 – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Stewart missed about three weeks of action in late April with some shoulder soreness. However, he took the mound for the rest of his starts throughout the season. He went 7-8 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.38 ERA. In 16 of his 22 starts, he gave up fewer than three runs. After striking out just 6.4 per nine innings at Cedar Rapids in 2014, he struck out just 4.9 per nine with the Miracle. He increased his workload from 87 innings to 129.1 innings. Stewart is throwing a fastball in the low 90s that touches 94. He has a good curve ball and slider and continues to work on his change-up. The strikeout rate becomes a concern. He likely will begin 2016 in Chattanooga, but I would personally like to see him spend two more months in Ft. Myers early in the season and work on that K-rate. It’s important to remember that he still hasn’t pitched lot. He was the Twins first-round pick in 2013 out of high school in Houston.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (5), 2014 (4)

 

 

#9 – Nick Burdi - 22 – RH RP – Chattanooga Lookouts/Ft. Myers Miracle

 

If you saw Burdi’s outing in the Arizona Fall League on Monday afternoon, you can better understand why he is ranked this high. It is no secret, Burdi is a flame-thrower. His fastball sat between 97 and 100 mph. He showed a slider that sat between 89 and 91 mph. He showed one slider that ‘slid’ away from a right-handed batter, but another one that dropped straight downward. What he showed on Monday was the ability to command both pitches, something he struggled with during the minor league season. He began the season in Chattanooga, but in late June, after 30.1 innings, he had a 5.93 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP and 22 walks to go with 33 strikeouts. He was sent down to Ft. Myers where he had a 2.25 ERA in 20 innings. More important, he walked three and struck out 29. It earned him a trip back to the Lookouts where he gave up runs in just one of his seven outings the rest of the regular season. He was also a key performer in the Lookouts championship run. My guess is that Burdi will receive a non-roster invite to big league camp and get a shot at an Opening Day gig. However, he could start the season back in AA with a quick promotion to AAA (or the big leagues) being very possible.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (10)

 

 

#8 – Adam Brett Walker - 24 – OF – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Walker was the Twins third-round draft pick in 2012 out of Jacksonville University. He is arguably the most powerful hitter in the Minnesota Twins organization. With Miguel Sano and his power in the organization, it should tell you a lot. That kind of power is rare. In 2015, he led the Southern League in home runs (31), RBI (106) and extra base Hits (65). He has led his league in homers in all four of his professional seasons. However, last year he also led all of minor league baseball in strikeouts with 195. Therein lies that biggest question mark with Walker. It is the reason he isn’t a little closer to #1 than #10. However, he just turned 24 and is performing very well in the Arizona Fall League. Through eight games played, he is hitting .355/.459/.677 (1.137) with a double and three home runs. He is a lock to be added to the 40-man roster and go to spring training with the Twins. He should advance to Rochester for the 2016 season with a shot at a big league promotion in the season’s second half, if needed.

 

Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (14), 2014 (11), 2013 (16)

 

 

#7 – Stephen Gonsalves – 21 – LHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels/Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Gonsalves was the fourth-round draft pick of the Twins in 2013 out of high school in San Diego, California. That season, between GCL and Elizabethton, he posted a 0.95 ERA and in 28.1 innings he walked 11 and struck out 39. In 2014, he made 14 combined starts between E-Town (six starts) and Cedar Rapids (eight starts). He posted a 3.97 ERA, and in 65.2 innings he walked 21 and struck out 70. He began 2015 back in Cedar Rapids and in his nine starts, went 6-1 with a 1.15 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP and 77 strikeouts with 15 walks in 55 innings. He moved up to Ft. Myers for 15 more starts. There, he was 7-2 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. In 79.1 innings, he walked 38 and struck out 55. Those numbers are a little deceptive as after his first three starts with the Miracle, he posted a 2.07 ERA over the final 12 starts. As he has each of those seasons, he is likely to begin the 2016 season with the team he finished the preceding year with, in this case Ft. Myers. He will likely advance to Chattanooga by mid-June. At 6-5 and about 200 pounds, Gonsalves looks the part of big league starter. He’s left-handed, has a good fastball in the low-90s with movement. He has a good change-up and an improving curve ball. He takes pride in his control, which is one thing that likely bothered him about his time in Ft. Myers.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (15), 2014 (13)

 

 

#6 – Jorge Polanco - 22 – SS/2B – Chattanooga Lookouts/Rochester Red Wings/Minnesota Twins

 

Polanco’s major league numbers are quite impressive. He is hitting .313/.450/.500 (.950) in his two season’s worth of big league play. No need to mention that is in just 20 plate appearances. In 2014 he became the youngest player to make his MLB debut for the Twins when he came up for five games as a 20-year-old. He was called up on two occasions in 2015 as well, and these times when he came up, Paul Molitor placed him in the lineup at shortstop. Polanco was signed in July of 2009. He spent two years in the GCL before a good season in Elizabethton. He jumped up prospect rankings in 2013 when he was the #3 hitter for that powerful Cedar Rapids lineup. He split 2014 between Ft. Myers and New Britain. In 2015, he was all over the place. He started in Chattanooga, moved up to the Twins for a game, went back down to Chattanooga, was promoted to Rochester, then promoted and spent three games with the Twins, and he then was sent down to Chattanooga where he ended the season helping the Lookouts to their Southern League championship. When he was signed, he was touted as a potentially great defensive middle infielder who may learn to hit. He has become a very professional hitter. Though he continues to play shortstop, he struggled mightily at the position. With Brian Dozier at second base, it only makes sense for the Twins to keep trotting Polanco out at shortstop in hopes that it can click for him. He is ready for the big leagues offensively, but finding an everyday spot for the still-just-22-year-old will prove difficult again in 2016.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (7), 2014 (6), 2013 (19)

 

 

So, what do you think of Part 7, Prospects 6-10? Tomorrow, we will finish up this series by discussing the Top 5 Twins prospects. Feel free to discuss these players. Make your predictions for my Top 5. And start planning your Top 30 prospect lists.

 

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[dgwills]

Farm system is still looking strong. Walker and Stewart are interesting prospects. Walker has really made no improvement on his biggest weakness, but he just keeps on producing and moving up the ladder. You'd expect a guy like Stewart to strike a lot of people out in the minors. Even without that he has progressed through the system and the other numbers look good. Whatever works I guess.

[sane]

Last five must be Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Jay and Gordon in whatever order Seth sees fit...my order is as I listed.

[jsteve96]

I wouldn't have put 6-10 any different...id say that Stewart is in a huge year this coming year. if his ERA continues to be low in AA even with the K% stays low i'd move him up. getting hitters out is the biggest thing for a SP... also i feel like Polanco should get a shot in MLB at 3B if the Twins end up trading Plouffe

[Brandon]

So where does Eades fit as a prospect

[Seth Stohs]

 

 also i feel like Polanco should get a shot in MLB at 3B if the Twins end up trading Plouffe

 

My sense is... out on a limb... if they trade Plouffe, this Sano guy will be the 3B. Polanco hasn't played any 3B since the GCL. He struggles at SS. I think 3B would be more difficult.

[Seth Stohs]

 

So where does Eades fit as a prospect

 

He's a guy who was right on the borderline of the top 50, and probably - frankly - should be in the high 30s or low 40s. He had a nice season in Ft. Myers. 

[clutterheart]

If Polanco could just play average SS he would be a top 50 prospect in all of baseball.  Its too bad his glove isn't advanced enough to push him into the majors.  If  Ryan had to trade a prospect for a catcher, I would imagine Polanco and Walker might be trade chips.

[diehardtwinsfan]

wow, you're higher on Walker than a lot of people.  Is that a gut feel or do you have some sense that he's figuring things out?  I know his walk rate has improved of late (though the K rate has not).  I'm personally hoping that's the first step in him putting it together, but I still have a tough time rating him that high, even though I think he's got a ceiling of perenniel all star if he figures it out. 

 

Also on Stewart, do you have any contacts in the org who could answer questions about his lack of Ks?  I know Neil Allen was preaching that from the top down, which is good, but Stewart took a step back in what is typically considered a pitchers league.  I don't have too much of a problem if this is something where they are sacrificing Ks for other developmental gains, but it would be nice to know what the thought process is there.

[ashbury]

He went 7-8 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.38 ERA.

Double-Duty Radcliffe had nothing on our guy Kohl.

[Seth Stohs]

 

If Polanco could just play average SS he would be a top 50 prospect in all of baseball.  Its too bad his glove isn't advanced enough to push him into the majors.  If  Ryan had to trade a prospect for a catcher, I would imagine Polanco and Walker might be trade chips.

 

I think you're right... that's the difference between him and Gordon at least at this point, in my mind. I see Polanco as a 2B who can really hit well... and that's not a bad thing. Ranking 6th in the Twins organization is nothing to sneeze about. But, if I had any confidence he could play shortstop (and at 22, let's not completely dismiss that as possible), he'd be very highly regarded.

[ashbury]

I am very high on Polanco's eventual success in the majors, but it's not clear to me his bat is ready right now. It's fun to joke around about his stellar major league numbers, but included in the joke needs to be the .385 BABIP that they're probably built upon. I'm more persuaded, by his AA numbers, that a year in AAA will do him a world of good, rather than force-feed him in the majors.

 

And of course, he's going to have to sort out for himself whether he has the makings of a shortstop's arm - my sense from watching him is he's sacrificing some zip in favor of directional accuracy, but too many bounced throws means it's not working, and if he can't cut loose on his throws and have them go where he intends then it's second base for him. This area of development is also something that seems better suited for AAA time than on the 25-man MLB roster.

[Seth Stohs]

 

wow, you're higher on Walker than a lot of people.  Is that a gut feel or do you have some sense that he's figuring things out?  I know his walk rate has improved of late (though the K rate has not).  I'm personally hoping that's the first step in him putting it together, but I still have a tough time rating him that high, even though I think he's got a ceiling of perenniel all star if he figures it out. 

 

 

Let me first say that the difference in rankings between 7 and maybe 13-14 is very minimal. I just think Walker's continued production as he continues to move up, each step getting more difficult, gives me hope that this is the type of player he can be. He can crush mistakes. Big league pitchers make less mistakes, but they still make some. He's going to strike out. My hope is that at some point, he can drop his K-rate to something like 33-35% He has one absolutely elite tool. 

 

I've seen him take really good plate appearances. I watched quite a few Chattanooga games online when they were available (not their home games, so many of their road games). I saw times where he took some really good sliders. And I saw times where he just couldn't lay off. I know how hard he works. I know how much guys like Doug Mientkiewicz and Chad Allen believe in him and have worked with him the last two years. 

 

Also, I know he's played parts of four MiLB seasons, but he just turned 24. He was very young for his college draft class. He's not an elite prospect, meaning he's not going to be up at 21 or 22 (obviously, right?). He's going to be more of a down-in-the-lineup, hit some home runs and be a solid contributor types, so if he debuts this season, at 24, that's not too bad. Or, if he waits another season and debuts at 25, that's not too bad either. Obviously he's got plenty of room for improvement. No doubt about that. 

[ashbury]

#8 seems like a very appropriate place for a guy who has finished AA and maintains his ceiling of "corner outfield starter for a decade, maybe some all-star appearances". It's just the low low floor that remains worrisome.

[mikelink45]

Unlike other readers, I do not see this as a strong group.  I would imagine the majority of teams could match out 6 - 20 rankings.  We have a SS who can't catch, a slugger who strikes out more than the Royal's team, a young live arm pitcher who cannot miss bats, a superstud fast reliever who should rank around 15 with the up and down year he had last year, Gonsalves who looks really legit.

[Mike Sixel]

I like this part of the list for its "they could be so AWESOME, or maybe no" aspects. I do think Polanco will be a 2B for someone in the majors, for multiple years. I do think Burdi will succeed in the majors for some years. Stewart? No idea. Gonsalves has a chance to be good, or maybe not. ABWIII......lots of virtual ink has been spilled on him. If he could just learn to walk.....

[Seth Stohs]

 

Also on Stewart, do you have any contacts in the org who could answer questions about his lack of Ks?  I know Neil Allen was preaching that from the top down, which is good, but Stewart took a step back in what is typically considered a pitchers league.  I don't have too much of a problem if this is something where they are sacrificing Ks for other developmental gains, but it would be nice to know what the thought process is there.

 

The FSL is known as a pitcher's league because of all the spring training, Major League sized stadiums. So I don't think assuming more strikeouts would happen, just more fly balls and stuff. I heard that batters still weren't making a lot of hard contact off of him.He's got a chance, but I dropped him at this point because of the lack of strikeouts.

[olivia11]

1. Byron Buxton

2. Jose Berrios

3. Max Kepler

4. Tyler Jay

5. Nick Gordon

[HitInAPinch]

 

Let me first say that the difference in rankings between 7 and maybe 13-14 is very minimal. I just think Walker's continued production as he continues to move up, each step getting more difficult, gives me hope that this is the type of player he can be. He can crush mistakes. Big league pitchers make less mistakes, but they still make some. He's going to strike out. My hope is that at some point, he can drop his K-rate to something like 33-35% He has one absolutely elite tool. 

 

I've seen him take really good plate appearances. I watched quite a few Chattanooga games online when they were available (not their home games, so many of their road games). I saw times where he took some really good sliders. And I saw times where he just couldn't lay off. I know how hard he works. I know how much guys like Doug Mientkiewicz and Chad Allen believe in him and have worked with him the last two years. 

 

Also, I know he's played parts of four MiLB seasons, but he just turned 24. He was very young for his college draft class. He's not an elite prospect, meaning he's not going to be up at 21 or 22 (obviously, right?). He's going to be more of a down-in-the-lineup, hit some home runs and be a solid contributor types, so if he debuts this season, at 24, that's not too bad. Or, if he waits another season and debuts at 25, that's not too bad either. Obviously he's got plenty of room for improvement. No doubt about that. 

I see Walker on the same path as Sano:  Watch for the walks.  That will be the indicator he's ready.  His mechanics  look pretty good,  in  the limited amount I've seen.

[nicksaviking]

Coming into the draft Stewart was touted as having a Texas strong upper 90's fastball.  I thought I was hearing this year it was 93-95, but this sounds like it's not even that high.

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

 Polanco hasn't played any 3B since the GCL. He struggles at SS.

 

That's an urban legend.  Here are a couple of quotes on his defense (from here. this season)

 

Molitor: 

 

"I think a lot of people have bought into the fact that what he's done in terms of improving both footwork and arm strength, and believe he has a chance to stick at that spot. I don't think that's unanimous, but I think it's a greater percentage than it used to be.

 

Mientkiewitz:

 

"This is just his second full season at shortstop and we've had some speed bumps," "He's made a lot of careless mental errors, but they don't really have anything to do with him not being able to play the position. He's making the more athletic plays and starting to get a feel for what it means to be a shortstop."

 

Bit different than "struggling".  If someone, like Blyleven, is looking at Errors and FP, sure he has several of those...  but he is not struggling according to people who have seen him play every day.   Not long ago, BA rated his as the best defensive infielder in the organization FWIW...

[Mike Sixel]

Molitor thinks Danny Santana is a MLB hitter and SS......so I'll take that opinion with a grain of salt.

[gunnarthor]

I think this is a solid group but they all seem to have a big question mark.  I probably still like Meyer ahead of any of them.  I've mentioned this before, but Jason Parks said Walker could be an elite prospect - IF he could get plate discipline.  It doesn't look like that will happen.  But man, what a fun lottery ticket he is.

 

I like both Gonsalves and Stewart but I think Gonslaves ceiling is a backend starter.  (I think only Berrios, Meyer, Stewart and Jay have the potential stuff to be a #2 or better in our org.  A healthy Thorpe, too).  I have no idea what to think of Stewart so I'll just hope and see what happens next year.  

 

I'm not as high on Polanco as others but I'm glad he's in our system.

 

I think Burdi probably surprised me the most this year.  I thought he'd destroy AA hitters and be on the ML roster by now.  But he still looks like a great bullpen arm.  Very exciting pitcher.

[TNLooky2015]

 

I think this is a solid group but they all seem to have a big question mark.  I probably still like Meyer ahead of any of them.  I've mentioned this before, but Jason Parks said Walker could be an elite prospect - IF he could get plate discipline.  It doesn't look like that will happen.  But man, what a fun lottery ticket he is.

 

Baby steps, but:  Walker - .459 OBP (5th in AFL);  1.137 OPS (6th in AFL); and a .355 BA thus far.  3rd in HRs and 4th in RBI and 5th in Total Bases and still 1st in K's.  Go Figure?

[TNLooky2015]

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/26271672/v526041083/twins-prospects-on-display-in-arizona-fall-league/?query=afl

[Seth Stohs]

 

I like this part of the list for its "they could be so AWESOME, or maybe no" aspects. I do think Polanco will be a 2B for someone in the majors, for multiple years. I do think Burdi will succeed in the majors for some years. Stewart? No idea. Gonsalves has a chance to be good, or maybe not. ABWIII......lots of virtual ink has been spilled on him. If he could just learn to walk.....

 

Which is pretty typical of a 6-10. When 1-5 all have some (or to some level) question marks, and there are many #1 prospects in baseball history that don't make it, this is a decent group. Each of these 5 have legit question marks, to be sure. But each of them could have an impact in the big leagues with further development. I feel good about this group.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I see Walker on the same path as Sano:  Watch for the walks.  That will be the indicator he's ready.  His mechanics  look pretty good,  in  the limited amount I've seen.

 

I don't think that they're quite on the same path because Sano walks... but there are quite a few similarities.

[Seth Stohs]

 

That's an urban legend.  Here are a couple of quotes on his defense (from here. this season)

 

Molitor: 

 

"I think a lot of people have bought into the fact that what he's done in terms of improving both footwork and arm strength, and believe he has a chance to stick at that spot. I don't think that's unanimous, but I think it's a greater percentage than it used to be.

 

Mientkiewitz:

 

"This is just his second full season at shortstop and we've had some speed bumps," "He's made a lot of careless mental errors, but they don't really have anything to do with him not being able to play the position. He's making the more athletic plays and starting to get a feel for what it means to be a shortstop."

 

Bit different than "struggling".  If someone, like Blyleven, is looking at Errors and FP, sure he has several of those...  but he is not struggling according to people who have seen him play every day.   Not long ago, BA rated his as the best defensive infielder in the organization FWIW...

 

I think to say that Polanco has struggled at shortstop would be very fair. I've seen him play there, and I believe that he has the ability to be solid. He's got potentially slightly above average range, and we've seen David Eckstein and his arm win a World Series... So, I 100% think it's worth sticking with him at shortstop and the fact he's still just 22 says it's silly to give up on it. In fact, a lot of his errors came in small time periods. I think he had like 8 errors in his first 8 games with Rochester. He had a similar (Though not that bad) stretch at Chattanooga. Outside of those stints, he was probably fine. 

 

Like I said, I think he can become a decent MLB shortstop. I think the odds are just as good for him to be an MLB SS as it is for Santana. I think Polanco can be as good defensively as Escobar (which is solid, but not spectacular) and that's fine with me.

 

But i also think it's fair to say that he has struggled.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think Burdi probably surprised me the most this year.  I thought he'd destroy AA hitters and be on the ML roster by now.  But he still looks like a great bullpen arm.  Very exciting pitcher.

 

I think it shows that it's a very important reminder that professional baseball players, particularly once you get to AA, can hit a 100 mph fastball... It's a great reminder that even those guys need a second pitch and control (and command) of them. Burdi, in my opinion, will be much better for it... 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Baby steps, but:  Walker - .459 OBP (5th in AFL);  1.137 OPS (6th in AFL); and a .355 BA thus far.  3rd in HRs and 4th in RBI and 5th in Total Bases and still 1st in K's.  Go Figure?

 

It's 8 games about about 30 plate appearances... we need to be pretty careful with the small samples. It's great that he's doing well. What would be better is if that walk rate can become sustainable.