Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 6 (11-15)

[TRex]

 

I used to be a religious buyer of Baseball America's prospect handbooks (I remember Blackburn as #1, and David McCarty). Whereas I liked being able to see the reports for all the teams, I think the prospect reports at Twins Daily are much better: knowledgeable folks who actually see the players, and have contact with insiders, very intersting reading.

...good thing we don't have to choose between them!

 

I see them as my kids... not the same (thankfully), and each enrich my life in unique ways!

[DJL44]

If there is a GM somewhere that will give the Twins a pitching prospect as good as Lewis Thorpe for JT Chargois then Terry Ryan needs to make that deal now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't get your Wandy statement at all. Guys that come into the system the first year, first round picks and HUGE international signings, should be in your top 10. That's why they get the money they do.

 

I would normally agree with you, but I think this speaks more to the fact that the Twins have a deep system than anything.  It's hard for me at least to put an untested 16 year old that high when all of the guys in front of him show similar amounts of promise and have had success at levels he won't even see for a while.  In the Twins system a few years ago, he'd be top 5.   Now, not so much.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Uhh... Nope... If this is how it ultimately plays out, this is an unmitigated disaster. ***

 

And you're also incorrect about Span's first year with the Nats.  He wasn't as good as he was in 2014, but he still produced the identical fWAR- 3.4- from his last season with the Twins.

 

Seth appears to have closed the book on Meyer in the rotation- but you can't simply whitewash the fact that that's already acknowledging the Twins wasted 3 years of failed development time better spent elsewhere- and wasting 3 years of Meyer's bullets in the process. You argue that the Twins simply had to take the risk. Really? What has been the Twins' track record on developing over-sized hard throwers? Zilch. I'd argue (and I did argue such at the time) that the price and risk were far too high in making a strong-up-the-middle-player-for-pure-prospect swap. Dave Cameron followed suit on my opinion within a day or so.

 

You simply can't just shed a cost-controlled and a clearly superior-to-the-average player at an elite position unless you get a useful proven major league piece thrown into the transaction (Drew Storen? 2.3 fWAR from 2013-15)- to compensate if you lose the bet on your lotto pick piece. Losing Span, the heart of the Twins OF defense, left a gaping hole that resulted in one of the main reasons that the Twins were the laughing stock of baseball, save the Astros (look who's laughing now).

 

 

*** Span has accumulated 8.8 fWAR over the last 3 seasons. By contrast, if the Twins had traded for a Top 10 veteran RP instead of Meyer, the average net accumulated fWAR for the best 10 RPs over the same 3-year span is 5.79.  With Meyer going to the pen- and since early results aren't exactly encouraging that he can ever be an annual Top 10 MLB RP, the Twins will almost certainly never recover the lost value that Span has and will continue to accumulate before he retires.

 

Again, it's important to reiterate, a Top 100 prospect over the last 4 years, ranked as such just 6 months ago, one of the two highest hopes to become the elusive Twins Ace- is now only the 3rd highest rated relief pitching prospect (with the other two guys above him full of their own question marks)- which could mean he ends up being a 6th or 7th inning guy down the road if it plays out that way.  That's quite a long fall from glory in such a small 6-month span of time.

 

I'm not an FO apologist by any means, but these are the types of irrational expectations that drive me and other posters around here absolutely nuts. The Twins had next to nothing for pitching in their system and a clear need to rebuild after two consectuive really bad seasons. Aquiring pitching talent was a must, despite the fact that this team hasn't developed an ace since Santana, and even in that case they had help from Houston. If they chose to not aquire high end pitching because of their developmental track record (as you have suggested here), you would be the first (and rightfully so I might add) to castigate them for not targeting pitching when it was extremely obvious that they needed pitching. But with that comes risk. I know you understand that concept, but I'm not seeing it here. Prospects fail all the time. We aren't the only team who has seen a guy in the top 100, or even top 50 drop out for various reasons. It happens, especially, I might add, with pitching prospects who are more difficult to develop and more suspectible to injury. There is a reason that you know what TINSTAAPP means.

 

What none of us know is what else (if anything) was on the table for Span, but I highly doubt that any team would have had a younger major leaguer with some cost control on the table with a top 50 pitching prospect as well.  As Ryan put it back when he aquired Meyer, once guys like him hit AA, they are untouchable. This is basic supply and demand. We needed help in the system on the mound, not at 1B/RF. We might have gotten your young major leaguer if it was some hitting help at a corner position where the system was weak. Those types of guys come cheaper because there's a lot more of them. Likewise, as another poster aptly put it, when the wins come is just as important. Getting Drew Storen for Span would have added a couple of wins to an otherwise disasterous 2013-2014 seasons, with no additional pitching help in the pipline (not to mention that it would not have strengthened a Washington team with WS aspirations). Leaving Span in house would have done so too, but the Twins would still have been that laughing stock. Regardless of how Meyer pans out, this is not the unmitigated disaster you now claim it to be. It is precisely the type of trade that Ryan needed to be making. 

 

What is more interesting about this is that as recently as last year, you were front and center castigating the front office for not calling up Meyer sooner, despite the fact that the main reason for not doing so is precisely why it is that he failed as a starter this season. You've been rather effusive of your praise for Meyer over the last two seasons, and I fail to see where you get to play the 'I told you so card' when in reality, what you wanted no other GM in baseball would have agreed to. You don't get to play this one both ways. Either Meyer was the pitcher you've praised the last too years and worthy of that risk or your assessment of him along with BA, BP, and everyone else was wrong.  Hindsight is 20/20, and that is all that this really is. Meyer and May were unknown commodities with lots of risk when they were aquired. But they needed to be aquired.

 

[Mike Sixel]

It's their job to be right about moves, not ours. I don't think for 1 minute we should expect us to be as smart as, or held "accountable" for our views as much, as they should be. They traded a starting CF for a super tall (those kind are almost non-existent in MLB) starting pitching prospect. If they are wrong about it more than they are right, you end up with the pitching staff they have had for the past 5-10 years, and a pitching staff this year that was planned to be 80% guys signed as FAs. So, commenting on their ability to add pitching seems like a reasonable exercise to me, YMMV, of course.

[jsteve96]

 

It's their job to be right about moves, not ours. I don't think for 1 minute we should expect us to be as smart as, or held "accountable" for our views as much, as they should be. They traded a starting CF for a super tall (those kind are almost non-existent in MLB) starting pitching prospect. If they are wrong about it more than they are right, you end up with the pitching staff they have had for the past 5-10 years, and a pitching staff this year that was planned to be 80% guys signed as FAs. So, commenting on their ability to add pitching seems like a reasonable exercise to me, YMMV, of course.

 

they traded a player that made no difference in the future because they were not going to be good within his contracted years. might as well trade him for someone that can help during theirs. just don't know how much

[SwainZag]

 

they traded a player that made no difference in the future because they were not going to be good within his contracted years. might as well trade him for someone that can help during theirs. just don't know how much

 

And here lies another problem.  Several posters have blasted this organization for not trading players when their value and hanging on to them too long.  They did they opposite with Span and traded him while he had very good value and got at the time a very good piece going forward for a re-building team. The Meyer book is far from being closed.

[Mike Sixel]

And here lies another problem.  Several posters have blasted this organization for not trading players when their value and hanging on to them too long.  They did they opposite with Span and traded him while he had very good value and got at the time a very good piece going forward for a re-building team. The Meyer book is far from being closed.

Our opinions aren't problems for the Twins or their fans, the Twins not developing pitchers is, however, a problem for the Twins and their fans. ANY ONE of us could have traded Span for a MILB pitcher. The Twins need to be judged on how well they made that trade, because anyone can follow the process of trading for prospects, but successful teams pick the RIGHT prospects.

 

This delta between following a process, and doing so successfully, seems to be a point of some confusion on these boards. I can follow the process for trying to hit a baseball (as could Drew Butera), doesn't mean it should be my job.

[jokin]

 

 

 Getting Drew Storen for Span would have added a couple of wins to an otherwise disasterous 2013-2014 seasons, with no additional pitching help in the pipline (not to mention that it would not have strengthened a Washington team with WS aspirations). Leaving Span in house would have done so too, but the Twins would still have been that laughing stock. Regardless of how Meyer pans out, this is not the unmitigated disaster you now claim it to be. It is precisely the type of trade that Ryan needed to be making. 

 

 

 

Umm, I wasn't suggesting a one-for-one swap of Span for Storen.  I was suggesting that fairer value in that trade would have been much closer to Span for Storen AND Meyer.. I thought that was obviously stated in my post. Storen was the insurance policy so you had the likelihood of at least some MLB return back for a near-elite CF in his absolute prime, plus your lotto ticket in Meyer. Perhaps the Twins would have had to throw in a C+ prospect to get it done, but I don't know how anyone can say that the Twins didn't get taken in this trade- and there were many of us, including professional writers who said just that at the time of the trade.

 

 

Edited October 28, 2015 by jokin

[dougkoebernick]

 

To reiterate, you are now officially on record with this statement from above:

 

 

The Twins have not publicly stated that Meyer has permanently been designated as a reliever- it seems more like the opposite is true in their public statements. And to have Meyer considered as such from this point forward- (you do seem "convinced"- for whatever reason(s)- that this is now how the Twins are envisioning that his career path proceeds, right?)-  pretty much means that the trade with Washington has been a disaster, most definitely difficult, if not impossible to get a "positive" takeaway here. By these rankings, Meyer is now behind two guys who have had their own share of struggles, but who only ever projected as RPs.

 

 

Again, this was a guy who only 6 months ago was rated as the BP #14-ranked prospect in all of baseball- not #13 on the Twins.

 

I'm not saying your conclusion is necessarily wrong, just that it's hard to accept the stamp of a positive spin on a guy who's ceiling only 6 months ago was said to be as an "Ace".

I think he might be coming from the viewpoint that where in the world does he fit in the starting rotation next year. I sure don't seem him in the top 7 based on what he did this year so for now if he wants to get to the big leagues it would have to be as a relief pitcher. 

[jokin]

 

I think he might be coming from the viewpoint that where in the world does he fit in the starting rotation next year. I sure don't seem him in the top 7 based on what he did this year so for now if he wants to get to the big leagues it would have to be as a relief pitcher. 

 

That seems logical and could possibly be the best path for Meyer to reach the majors next year. But Seth didn't qualify his comments with that nuance- he made it sound like RP was his new permanent career track. 

[Rosterman]

So Escobar could be a placesetter until we see Gordon, followed by Vielma if need be, and then Javier in the wings. If we went and signed someone longterm, then we have some expendable tradebait here.

 

J.T. Char sounds like he may be the next...Anthony Slama, perhaps. Hope not. That he develops and is given every opportunity tobecome a first-rate bullpen arm in the majors.

 

Meyer controls his own destiny. 2016 is the year he shines or is bypassed. Unfortunately, his trade value with the current Twins is not what it was when the Nats dealt him to us.

[jokin]

 

So Escobar could be a placesetter until we see Gordon, followed by Vielma if need be, and then Javier in the wings. If we went and signed someone longterm, then we have some expendable tradebait here.

 

J.T. Char sounds like he may be the next...Anthony Slama, perhaps. Hope not. That he develops and is given every opportunity tobecome a first-rate bullpen arm in the majors.

 

Meyer controls his own destiny. 2016 is the year he shines or is bypassed. Unfortunately, his trade value with the current Twins is not what it was when the Nats dealt him to us.

 

Uhh, yeah... could the Twins even get a decent 4th OF for him at this point?

[Badsmerf]

 

 

 

Meyer controls his own destiny. 2016 is the year he shines or is bypassed. Unfortunately, his trade value with the current Twins is not what it was when the Nats dealt him to us.

Depends on how highly you viewed him. The first time I saw him pitch I was extremely disappointed. The power FB had no command, and his wipe-out slider couldn't get over the plate. The Nats knew what they had with him, and knew the odds were he was going to end up in the pen. I don't fault the Twins for this trade, and neither should anyone else. Had he clicked (and still might eventually) he could be a top of the rotation guy. Unfortunately, his floor is a non-MLB player since he struggles to throw strikes. 

 

I do think TR could have gone after a little more of a sure thing at equal the upside with Span.