Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 5: (16-20)

[Willihammer]

The CS% are encouraging. I also noticed Turner allowed just 4 PBs last season in 97 games. That is not surprising as he is all of 6'3" and broad.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Not sure why Rogers wasn't a LOOGY this year, they needed one. I don't get it at all, frankly.
 

 

Because starting pitchers are more valuable and if there's any chance he can be a starter, they should go with that. Also, once they brought O'Rourke up, he was the LOOGY. 

 

Now, most believe that Rogers will be a bullpen guy long term, in large part due to the Twins depth of mid-to-backend starters, but he's developing more as a starter than as a reliever because he's facing those same situations every start almost. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

The right situation being, he turns 24 years of age?

 

(Despite my posts elsewhere casting doubt about his readiness to step in as a starter for 2016, I remain very high on him.)

 

The right situation being maybe in an organization that doesn't have an All Star second baseman locked up for the next three seasons. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

If you took a composite of league's catching prospects, is it a position that doesn't rank too well? In other words, are good catching prospects hard to come by? If yes, these 3 middlin' prospects might be the norm for most organizations.

 

I would say this much... because it's all just theoretical and I'm not going to look anything up...

 

It's rare to find good defensive catchers who can hit.

It's rare to find good offensive catchers who can catch well.

 

There's a reason Joe Mauer was the #1 prospect in baseball for a couple of years. There's a reason he was a perennial All Star. If there are catchers in the minor leagues who people think and hit well in the majors and still be good defensively, those guys will likely be very highly ranked. 

 

My guess is you'll see a few of them in the lower levels of the minors, and as they move up the ladder, things get exposed and you see less of them. The ones that can hit will be on prospect lists. The ones that teams want to be their starters will not be ranked as high in many cases because offensive stats are pretty much all that can be seen. 

 

That the long way of saying that I don't think you'll find a ton of catchers in prospect rankings. It's the most difficult position for ranking.

[Mike Sixel]

Because starting pitchers are more valuable and if there's any chance he can be a starter, they should go with that. Also, once they brought O'Rourke up, he was the LOOGY. 

 

Now, most believe that Rogers will be a bullpen guy long term, in large part due to the Twins depth of mid-to-backend starters, but he's developing more as a starter than as a reliever because he's facing those same situations every start almost.

He holds zero value to the MLB roster, if he's never on the MLB roster or traded for someone that is. What are the odds he pitches on the MLB roster next year, as a SP vs a RP? Duensing has not been good, he costs actual money, I'd try Rogers. They know RP is a huge need, they have a guy sitting in AAA that could fill one of the roles.....

[Seth Stohs]

 

He holds zero value to the MLB roster, if he's never on the MLB roster or traded for someone that is. What are the odds he pitches on the MLB roster next year, as a SP vs a RP? Duensing has not been good, he costs actual money, I'd try Rogers. They know RP is a huge need, they have a guy sitting in AAA that could fill one of the roles.....

 

Sure, but Duensing wasn't a LOOGY. Duensing is also a free agent and unlikely to be back, opening up a spot. Could be Rogers, Darnell or someone else. I just believe that pitchers are better served developing as starters (if they can) because 1.) starters are more valuable and guys that have success in AA and AAA may need just one thing to click to become a solid #3-4 starter (which is valuable), and 2.) they face so many more in-game situations as a starter than they do as a reliever. 

 

I'd also add that I think there's a very good chance he's on the MLB roster at some point in 2016... and beyond. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Probably. Guys who look like eventual utility infielders or fourth outfielders, or starting pitchers who will likely have to accept bullpen duty if they want to be in the majors, litter top-20s, even strong lists.

 

Think of it this way. How immensely strong would a farm system be, if the entire top 20 was entirely made up of "this guy projects as a starting first baseman, this guy projects as a starting second baseman, this guy projects as a front line starting pitcher, this guy..."? Practically a whole new competitive 25-man roster, including a few apparently qualified players riding the pine, if you'll just wait a few years.

 

Top 10, I'm probably with you, regarding backup catchers.

This sounds about right.  The 2012 and 2013 Twins systems were absolutely loaded.  Jason Parks said about the 2013 group that are #11-20 would be better than "3 or 4" teams 1-10.  But those lists still included back up catchers and relief pitchers.

[DJL44]

This is where I expected to see Palacios and he's definitely ahead of Navaretto. I never expected to see Navaretto this high and just assumed he was out of your top 50. >50 makes more sense than 20th.

[jsteve96]

Correct Jorge's age, he'll be 22. a whole year can change a person's prospective on a prospect. Also i just don't understand the whole Navarreto, the way he hits he will never touch a big league field. Turner has roughly the same throw out % as Garver and Garver hits a ton better so i feel Garver should be ahead of him... like the ranks of Rogers, Blankenhorn and Jorge though for sure

[jsteve96]

also to take the pressure off the catcher rankings Situation... how close was Jean Carlos Arias to making the top 50? i believe we signed him last summer and he played way above expectations in DSL... 17 years old and hitting well is what i love to see

[beckmt]

This part of the list is still good.  Defensive catchers have their place.  One of them may hit later.  Do not like Rogers, but he may have a place.  Rest of the list I am ok with.

[Thrylos]

 

also to take the pressure off the catcher rankings Situation... how close was Jean Carlos Arias to making the top 50? i believe we signed him last summer and he played way above expectations in DSL... 17 years old and hitting well is what i love to see

 

 

Arias will make my top 40 list, and so will Wander Javier, but they are not Catchers

 

The one Catcher who compares to Navaretto is another high Latin American pick a couple years ago, Rainis Silva.  Not sure whether he made Seth's list, but he is probably the best game caller and fielding C in the Twins' system (including the majors) with his bat trailing, but he is 19 and hitting better than Navaretto and just looks like a catcher...  Had him at 24 last year (and 10 of my list graduated this year,) interesting to see whether he will make Seth's list

[TRex]

 

Sure, but Duensing wasn't a LOOGY. Duensing is also a free agent and unlikely to be back, opening up a spot. Could be Rogers, Darnell or someone else. I just believe that pitchers are better served developing as starters (if they can) because 1.) starters are more valuable and guys that have success in AA and AAA may need just one thing to click to become a solid #3-4 starter (which is valuable), and 2.) they face so many more in-game situations as a starter than they do as a reliever. 

 

I'd also add that I think there's a very good chance he's on the MLB roster at some point in 2016... and beyond. 

Yet another reason pitchers are better developed as starters is that a ML bullpen is used quite differently than a MLB bullpen. You almost never have a ML pitcher pitch on back to back days, so it's not like they're consistently exposed to high-leverage situations like a MLB bullpen arm.

[jokin]

 

Fair point, but what if he does take the step in 2016 and people think that he can be more than a backup catcher.

 

Also, what's wrong with being a backup catcher. If the Twins would have moved Butera to the bullpen, it's pretty likely he never makes the big leagues. As a backup catcher, and one of the smartest baseball players around, he's now over 5 years of MLB service time. He's considered valuable by MLB Insiders, front offices, players, coaches, etc. That's nothing to scoff at, even though  many chose to do so.

 

 

All fair rebuttal points, and definitely good food for thought. Five questions for your consideration to counter:

 

1) You mention some "people think" with regards to Navarretto, I'm assuming they helped in convincing you that there's more than currently meets the eye with him? Are these people inside the organization, or outside?

 

2) Drew Butera has accumulated all of -1.7 of bWAR in parts of 6 seasons- shouldn't we question, at least a little bit, all of these people who consider him having any more value than as a BP catcher?

 

3) Do you have any idea what Butera's highest Twins prospect ranking was?

 

4) If Butera was touching 94 in his Twins outing as a pitcher- and he has a 10.13 K/9 in his limited pitching duties- without ever taking the pitching thing seriously- who's to automatically dismiss what his chances were at becoming a MLB RP?

 

5) Doesn't every organization have at least a half dozen Eric Fryer's up and down their organizational chart who can get plugged in as the MLB back-up catcher at a moment's notice?  I'm still unconvinced that a guy with a back-up catcher ceiling should merit much fan excitement about that organization's great/deep farm system. Based on your rankings here, the Twins may very well have 2 back-up catchers in their Top 20. Hopefully, Turner builds on his second half and changes the ceiling projection for good. 

 

I still say your team's system isn't all that deep with back-up ceiling catchers in the Top 20 and RP-ceiling pitchers in the Top 10. 

Edited October 24, 2015 by jokin

[Seth Stohs]

 

All fair rebuttal points, and definitely good food for thought. Five questions for your consideration to counter:

 

1) You mention some "people think" with regards to Navarretto, I'm assuming they helped in convincing you that there's more than currently meets the eye with him? Are these people inside the organization, or outside?

 

2) Drew Butera has accumulated all of -1.7 of bWAR in parts of 8 seasons- shouldn't we question, at least a little bit, all of these people who consider him having any more value than as a BP catcher?

 

3) Do you have any idea what Butera's highest Twins prospect ranking was?

 

4) If Butera was touching 94 in his Twins outing as a pitcher- and he has a 10.13 K/9 in his limited pitching duties- without ever taking the pitching thing seriously- who's to automatically dismiss what his chances were at becoming a MLB RP?

 

5) Doesn't every organization have at least a half dozen Eric Fryer's up and down their organizational chart who can get plugged in as the MLB back-up catcher at a moment's notice?  I'm still unconvinced that a guy with a back-up catcher ceiling should merit much fan excitement about that organization's great/deep farm system. Based on your rankings here, the Twins may very well have 2 back-up catchers in their Top 20. Hopefully, Turner builds on his second half and changes the ceiling projection for good. 

 

I still say your team's system isn't all that deep with back-up ceiling catchers in the Top 20 and RP-ceiling pitchers in the Top 10. 

 

I'll reply... these are just my opinions, so I don't care if people disagree. I would think people would. If we all agreed exactly the same on every prospect, what fun would that be. 

 

1.) no one is telling me where to rank people, but I'll take any opinions and listen to them. People I've talked to have talked about his defense and offensive potential... but mainly it's a gut feel. I don't think his ceiling is backup catcher. I think he can be a solid starter, someday. Maybe not. In fact, odds are against him, as they are all minor leaguers. 

 

2.) I mean, you can if you want... but he's been with the Twins, the Angels and now the Royals... those teams find value in him as a backup catcher. Teammates tout his intelligence and what he brings to the team. I frankly don't care about his bWAR or whatever. Whether we (fans who think we know more than front office people) like it or not, he provides value in the eyes of the people that matter most.

 

3.) I skimmed my rankings... I don't think I ever had Butera in the top 30. 

 

4.) Fair enough... but then Buxton and Hicks and Plouffe hit 97 in high school, maybe they should be bullpen guys too. 

 

5.) It's possible I ranked two backup big league catchers in my preliminary top 20. It's also possible that neither one of them will make it to the big leagues. It's possible one does and the other doesn't. It's possible they both do, one becomes a starter and the other is a backup. 

[jsteve96]

 

Arias will make my top 40 list, and so will Wander Javier, but they are not Catchers

 

The one Catcher who compares to Navaretto is another high Latin American pick a couple years ago, Rainis Silva.  Not sure whether he made Seth's list, but he is probably the best game caller and fielding C in the Twins' system (including the majors) with his bat trailing, but he is 19 and hitting better than Navaretto and just looks like a catcher...  Had him at 24 last year (and 10 of my list graduated this year,) interesting to see whether he will make Seth's list

haha don't get too excited here pal I agree Wander Javier getting the big 5M should definitely make top 30... its about potential right? the 16 year old looks like he could be a beast... and Arias has the speed, power and low K% that a lot of big prospects can't put together.. it'd be cool if he continues.. hope he does it in the GCL this year

[SarasotaBill]

Javier is top ten or the Twins made a large mistake.

[bird]

 

Not sure why Rogers wasn't a LOOGY this year, they needed one. I don't get it at all, frankly.

The others in this part? No idea, but probably not long term MLB assets, which makes sense this far down the list.

 

Because Rogers would have been eaten alive by MLB batters perhaps?

[jokin]

 

Because Rogers would have been eaten alive by MLB batters perhaps?

 

Only one way to find out.  And I don't think anyone would argue that the MLB opportunity and need was there for the Twins to take the chance and find out. They obviously didn't know about Duffey until they were forced to do so in a numbers game.  And it's important to note that at one point (as I posted at the time), Rogers was 36/1 in K/BB vs. LH hitters.

Edited October 24, 2015 by jokin

[bird]

 

 

 

2) Drew Butera has accumulated all of -1.7 of bWAR in parts of 8 seasons- shouldn't we question, at least a little bit, all of these people who consider him having any more value than as a BP catcher?

 

 

Given all the pros who value Butera as much much more than a BP catcher, shouldn't we question, just a little bit, the use of bWAR as the be-all and end-all when discussing a player's value?

[jokin]

 

Given all the pros who value Butera as much much more than a BP catcher, shouldn't we question, just a little bit, the use of bWAR as the be-all and end-all when discussing a player's value?

 

Feel free to do so.

 

In contrast, I am confident in what I've seen of him over his MLB career, that never having been rated in the Twins Top 30 prospect list was confirmed by what he's accomplished on the field.

[jokin]

 

I'll reply... these are just my opinions, so I don't care if people disagree. I would think people would. If we all agreed exactly the same on every prospect, what fun would that be. 

 

 

 

To be clear, my posts weren't intended to be antagonistic and argumentative, just... pointed... in my disagreements and differences of opinion about certain names and certain perceptions about the relative strengths/weaknesses in the Twins approach in the draft selection past the 1st round in the 2010s as well as the international FA strategies since the Twins hit the jackpot in 2009.

 

Your work in this area is greatly appreciated and indispensable to many of us, Seth. (Also appreciated is your willingness to respond and engage in this forum).

 

 

 

 

 

1.) no one is telling me where to rank people, but I'll take any opinions and listen to them. People I've talked to have talked about his defense and offensive potential... but mainly it's a gut feel. I don't think his ceiling is backup catcher. I think he can be a solid starter, someday. Maybe not. In fact, odds are against him, as they are all minor leaguers. 

 

2.) I mean, you can if you want... but he's been with the Twins, the Angels and now the Royals... those teams find value in him as a backup catcher. Teammates tout his intelligence and what he brings to the team. I frankly don't care about his bWAR or whatever. Whether we (fans who think we know more than front office people) like it or not, he provides value in the eyes of the people that matter most.

 

3.) I skimmed my rankings... I don't think I ever had Butera in the top 30. 

 

4.) Fair enough... but then Buxton and Hicks and Plouffe hit 97 in high school, maybe they should be bullpen guys too. 

 

5.) It's possible I ranked two backup big league catchers in my preliminary top 20. It's also possible that neither one of them will make it to the big leagues. It's possible one does and the other doesn't. It's possible they both do, one becomes a starter and the other is a backup. 

 

1) Perhaps I wasn't clear. My question about where you might have gotten your information on Navarretto was not meant as a slight or indictment of you. In point of fact, it would be poor reporting if you didn't reach out to get comprehensive information on each and every prospect from inside sources who work with, or see the kids year-round. You would have to admit though, that when a kid who hasn't done anything to particularly stand out so far in his professional career and suddenly jumps into the top 20 will cause some of us to inquire further to determine the source to establish the validity of that jump.

 

4) I highly doubt that even going all the way back to early Babe Ruth League that Butera ever showed anything that suggested the hit tool of Buxton, Hicks, Plouffe. And if there was any doubt, his career MiLB numbers: .214 BA .607 OPS in 1829 PAs should have been sufficient evidence that he would turn out to be-

 

the worst hitter in all of baseball with 850 PAs or more since 2010.  His wRC+ is 39. Here's the supporting link. His lifetime .185 BA at least has made Mario Mendoza very, very happy- futility has a new name to rally around in Drew Butera.

 

Butera is so off-the-charts bad, the 2nd worst hitting catcher, Mike Zunino looks like Mike Piazza when comped to Drewbie.

 

5) Again, I was not criticizing your picks of two possible future back-up catchers. Just questioning the conventional wisdom about organizational strength. I hope that one or both blossom in 2016 and begin to solve the Twins' catching black hole, I prefer being optimistic if given good reason to do so.

Edited October 24, 2015 by jokin

[jsteve96]

seth if we didn't have different opinions it'd be boring and none of us would learn anything interesting! you've done a great job doing your countdown

[sane]

Baseball America Low-A Best Tools 2015

Best defensive catcher - Brian Navarreto Cedar Rapids (Twins)

Seth is not by himself on this.

[sane]

Not to minimize these prospect lists, from is an mlb.com write-up on one of my ex-HS-players who was a top candidate for NL ROY:

 

"Here's a look at the current candidates for NL Rookie of the Year Award, in the order I'd vote them at the moment:

 

1. Matt Duffy, 3B, Giants

.307 AVG, .345 OBP, .465 SLG, 129 OPS+, 9 HR, 20 2B, 5 3B, 51 RBI, 5 SB, 3.8 WAR (per Baseball Reference)

 

In an age of prospect prominence, at a time when guys are household names or even plastered on billboards before they set foot in the big leagues, it's refreshing when we're legitimately caught off guard"

[Seth Stohs]

 

Javier is top ten or the Twins made a large mistake.

 

At some point he will be.

[sane]

In the words of Carl Spackler from "Caddyshack, (who could be referring to Matt Duffy):

 

"Cinderella story. Outta nowhere. A former greenskeeper, now, about to become the Masters champion. It looks like a mirac... It's in the hole! It's in the hole! It's in the hole!"

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

seth if we didn't have different opinions it'd be boring and none of us would learn anything interesting! you've done a great job doing your countdown

 

Yup, when I do my prospect rankings, I'm certain there will always be questions and comments and I'm 100% OK with that. We all value certain things more or less, and that can also vary by position. 

 

Again, my hope is that when my rankings are done, people will write up their own personal top 30 or top 50 lists, either as blogs or in a forum. They're fun to discuss.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Baseball America Low-A Best Tools 2015
Best defensive catcher - Brian Navarreto Cedar Rapids (Twins)
Seth is not by himself on this.

 

Yeah, it's definitely not a secret that a lot of people like Navarreto... I still doubt that BA (or, Mike Berardino, as it is) will have him in their top 30. But maybe. 

 

I fully admit I'm going to likely have him ranked higher than most, if not all... and that's OK with me. Prospect lists are, and should be, based some on gut feelings too. If there's one thing that prospect rankings shouldn't be based on, it's stats. Especially in the lower levels of the minor leagues. They're part of the equation, but tools, potential, et all, are as important.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Not to minimize these prospect lists, from is an mlb.com write-up on one of my ex-HS-players who was a top candidate for NL ROY:

"Here's a look at the current candidates for NL Rookie of the Year Award, in the order I'd vote them at the moment:

1. Matt Duffy, 3B, Giants
.307 AVG, .345 OBP, .465 SLG, 129 OPS+, 9 HR, 20 2B, 5 3B, 51 RBI, 5 SB, 3.8 WAR (per Baseball Reference)

In an age of prospect prominence, at a time when guys are household names or even plastered on billboards before they set foot in the big leagues, it's refreshing when we're legitimately caught off guard"

 

I love when that happens! That's why I love following minor league development! Every minor leaguer's story is a little bit different. We all like the Miguel Sano's and Byron Buxton's, but I love the stories of Tommy Watkins, and Chris Heintz, and Chris Colabello, and Caleb Thielbar, and Ryan O'Rourke better... as a story, that is. 

 

And, I always try to point out that prospect rankings are for talk, discussion, recognition, etc. We like to pretend they are some sort of indicator of future success, but there are too many examples of that not being the case.