Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 5: (16-20)

[Seth Stohs]

Today we start looking at who I’ve put in my preliminary Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospect countdown with prospects 16 through 20. This is a fairly diverse group by age and by position. There are a couple of catchers, a left-handed starter, a right-handed starter and a young infielder with big power potential. As always, please feel free to discuss these prospects in the comments below.

 

Previous installments of this prospect ranking:

• Part 1 (41-50)
• Part 2 (31-40)
• Part 3 (26-30)
• Part 4 (21-25)

As a quick reminder, players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2016 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)

 

Top Prospects 16-20

 

#20 – Brian Navarreto - 20 – C – Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

The Twins used their sixth-round pick in 2013 on the 6-4, 225 pound backstop. He was born in Puerto Rico and went to high school in Jacksonville, Florida. He spent that summer playing for the GCL Twins. He hit .226/.318/.365 (.683). In 2014, he played in 31 games for Elizabethton and hit .194/.241/.370 (.612). In 2015, he moved up to Cedar Rapids where he hit .217/.256/.281 (.537) with 11 doubles, a triple and two home runs. It’s behind the plate where Navarreto stands out. In E-Town, he threw out 59% of would-be base stealers. For the Kernels, he threw out 56% He is often compared to Royals catcher Salvador Perez. At this point, it’s his size and arm, and not his bat that make that comp appropriate. However, he does have a lot of offensive potential.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (29)

 

#19 – Stuart Turner - 23 – C – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Three rounds before the Twins select Navarreto, they drafted Stuart Turner out of the University of Mississippi. He spent that season in Elizabethton. In 2014, he skipped over the Midwest League and went straight to Ft. Myers. In 93 games, he hit .249/.322/.375 (.698) with 16 doubles, two triples and seven home runs. In 98 games with Chattanooga in 2015, he hit .223/.333/.306 (.628) with 13 doubles and four homers. After throwing out 32% in Elizabethton and Ft. Myers, he threw out 39% for Chattanooga this season. At 6-3 and 230 pounds, Turner is strong and durable and does have potential to get on base and show some power with the bat.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (19)

 

#18 – Taylor Rogers - 23 – LHP – Rochester Red Wings

 

The Twins drafted Rogers in the 11^th round of the 2012 draft out of the University of Kentucky where he was a three-year starter. He made six starts in Elizabethton before moving up to Beloit. He began the 2013 season with three starts in Cedar Rapids before moving up to Ft. Myers where he was named the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year. With the Miracle he went 11-6 with a 2.55 ERA. He moved up to New Britain in 2014 where he went 11-6 with a 3.29 ERA. He made three appearances in the Arizona Fall League a year ago after taking a liner off his arm in his second outing. He was invited to big league spring training this year and then went to Rochester. He went 11-12 with a 3.98 ERA in 174 innings. He is back in the Fall League now. The lefty throws a fastball between 89 and 92 mph. He has a slider in the upper 70s. He had significantly better numbers against left-handers. At 6-3 and 180 pounds, some wonder if he’ll hold up as a starter. However, this year he’ll hit about 190 innings total. He’ll continue to start, though he’ll likely be able to compete for a bullpen spot out of spring training.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (21), 2014 (11)

 

#17 – Travis Blankenhorn – 19 – 3B – GCL Twins/Elizabethton Twins

 

Blankenhorn was the Twins third-round draft pick this year out of high school in Pottsville, Pennsylvania. A terrific athlete, Blankenhorn has a lot of offensive potential. He began his career with 14 games in the Gulf Coast League. He hit .245/.362/.408 (.770) with four doubles and two triples. He was promoted to Elizabethton where he played in 39 games and hit .243/.306/.326 (.632) with three doubles and three home runs. In those 14 games in the GCL, he played some at first base, shortstop, third base and in left field. When he moved up to Elizabethton, the only defensive position he played was third base. He’s young and he’s raw, but he has a solid swing and uses the whole field. He is strong and should develop power. He could start in extended spring, but I think it’s likely he will begin 2016 with Cedar Rapids.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A

 

 

#16 – Felix Jorge - 23 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

The Twins signed Jorge out of the Dominican Republic in February of 2011. He spent that summer in the DSL before coming to the States in 2012. He spent a year with the GCL Twins. In 2013, he went 2-2 with a 2.95 ERA in Elizabethton. He began 2014 in Cedar Rapids but struggled mightily. He went back to Elizabethton and was the Appy League Pitcher of the Year. He returned to the Kernels to start the 2015 season and was a completely different pitcher. Overall, he went 6-7 with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 142 innings. He was remarkably consistent. He completed six innings in 20 of his 22 starts including a streak of 14 straight. He also gave up more than three earned runs in a start just twice. He sits in the low-90s but has a really good pitch mix. He will advance to Ft. Myers to start the 2016 season.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2014 (19)

 

 

So, what do you think of Part 5, Prospects 16-20? Next week, we’ll continue the countdown with the Top 15 Twins Prospects. Feel free to share your thoughts on these prospects. Who is too high or too low on this list? Also, start contemplating your own personal Top 20, Top 30 or Top 50 Twins prospect list.

 

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[bluechipper]

Brian Navaretto throwing out well over 50% of base stealers is extremely impressive and seems near impossible after watching Kurt Suzuki throw out approximately 0% of base stealers over the last two years. And with that arm, Navaretto must almost have a floor of a backup big league catcher, right?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Brian Navaretto throwing out well over 50% of base stealers is extremely impressive and seems near impossible after watching Kurt Suzuki throw out approximately 0% of base stealers over the last two years. And with that arm, Navaretto must almost have a floor of a backup big league catcher, right?

 

I think that would be a fair statement, though there is a lot of development he needs to do offensively as well as defensively.

[DocBauer]

Sooner or later, don't the Twins have to slow Navaretto down and let him spend a second year at a level to let his bat catch up a bit?1

[Thegrin]

Navaretto at #20 means the Twins are almost tragically weak at the catching position.

[jokin]

 

Brian Navaretto throwing out well over 50% of base stealers is extremely impressive and seems near impossible after watching Kurt Suzuki throw out approximately 0% of base stealers over the last two years. And with that arm, Navaretto must almost have a floor of a backup big league catcher, right?

 

Navaretto at #20 means the Twins are almost tragically weak at the catching position.

 

Yep.  I'd like to hear more of Seth's rationale for this placement of Navaretto in the top 20. MLB.com doesn't even have him in their Twins Top 30. Are there MiLB coaches or Twins management sources pushing this idea?  What stood out in what Navarretto accomplishments in 2015 that Jonathan Mayo, et al, missed?  

 

And  mentioning a Perez comp in way of support of Navarretto's anointment to the top 20 is a little dangerous, even if it's only iterated in relating their catching abilities. Salvi was OPSing at .732, in High A at age 20 (nearly 3 years younger than league average), vs. Navaretto's .537 OPS at A level (1.4 years younger than league average).

 

Seems more like the ceiling of a future defensively good-to-strong back-up catcher, not the floor.  Hope to be proven wrong on this.

Edited October 23, 2015 by jokin

[jokin]

Regarding Felix Jorge, I'm also puzzled that two qualified rankers can come to such widely divergent perspectives within a one-year time span.  Mayo had Jorge at #11 in his 2014 list- for 2015, he's not even in his Twins Top 30.  Seth sees the same results and moves Jorge up from #19 to #16. Any rationale for these two diametrically opposed conclusions? 

[roger]

If my California math is correct, Seth,

 

Jorge needs to be added to the 40-man this fall, correct?  If not, is he likely to be gone?

[SarasotaBill]

Navaretto, Turner, and Rogers are too high.

 

Navaretto and Turner look to be back-up catchers.

 

Rogers looks like a LOOGY. 

[clutterheart]

Why do you have Blankenhorn so much higher than Trey Cabbage?

Both young Corner IF, both high Draft picks

Is it the power Blankenhorn showed?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Sooner or later, don't the Twins have to slow Navaretto down and let him spend a second year at a level to let his bat catch up a bit?1

 

I would agree with that, but I'm always a proponent of that. 

 

Others asked why I have Navarreto and Turner as high as I do. Part of it is their size. Part of it is seeing some offensive potential. And, my personal opinion is that to see that potential, they need to get an extra half-season at a level. I've written on a few occasions that I'd like to see Turner get another half-season in Chattanooga in 2016. Same thing with Navarreto. I'd like to see him get another half season in Cedar Rapids. Both hit better in the 2nd half than they did early in the season.

 

Neither will be a great hitter, most likely, but if they can be near-.700 OPS guys and play the kind of defense they can play, that's pretty valuable. Will that happen? No way to know, but I love both upsides. 

 

And, I guess if I were to make one other statement, or acknowledge one mistake, it's probably that there is so much separation in ranking between these two and Garver. When I come up with my final rankings, I would guess these two will stay pretty close to where they are, but Garver will move up a little bit. 

[clutterheart]

Navarreto's size makes it less likely he sticks at catcher in the long term.  He is a big dude

[DocBauer]

Navaretto at #20 means the Twins are almost tragically weak at the catching position.

 

Hmmm....I see your point here but I am going to disagree. Big and strong with a big arm, it appears to me he's been promoted very aggressively despite being a little young for his level, and while his bat is behind, he hasn't been allowed to repeat a year, or part of a year, to let his bat catch up. (The same arguement could be made for Turner as well I think) Without getting a true fix on his hitting potential, I'd say speculation puts him pretty close to where he is.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Yep.  I'd like to hear more of Seth's rationale for this placement of Navaretto in the top 20. MLB.com doesn't even have him in their Twins Top 30. Are there MiLB coaches or Twins management sources pushing this idea?  What stood out in what Navarretto accomplished in 2015 that Jonathan Mayo, et al, missed?  

 

And  mentioning a Perez comp in way of support of Navarretto's anointment to the top 20 is a little dangerous, even if it's only iterated relating their catching abilities. Salvi was OPSing at .732, in High A at age 20 (nearly 3 years younger than league average), vs. Navaretto's .537 OPS at A level (1.4 years younger than league average).

 

Seems more like the ceiling of a future defensively good-to-strong back-up catcher, not the floor.  Hope to be proven wrong on this.

 

Everyone has their personal rankings and has guys they are likely higher on then most... or lower. I guess I don't look at other rankings when I come up with mine. As noted, these are all subject to change when I come up with my final rankings in the Prospect Handbook. 

 

I haven't really talked to anyone associated with the Twins about these rankings. I've talked to some about some of the players, but not about how to rank them.

 

What am I looking for in a catcher? #1 - Defense. I think that's the most important thing a catcher can do for his team. Both Turner and Navarreto are terrific. Tools-wise, Navarreto has good size, strength and a powerful arm. He's working on calling games, and he'll get better at blocking, but those are the tools I look for defensively. Yes, I would like to see more offense, but again, he's got the size. He's got decent speed, especially for a catcher. He hasn't shown it yet, but he has tremendous power potential. Maybe I'm biased some by the monstrous home run I saw him hit off of JO Berrios in spring training. Obviously a pretty small sample size (1 AB), but it does speak to his potential. 

 

The Salvador Perez comp is based on size and defense, and offensive potential. It doesn't mean he will get there, and it certainly doesn't mean he'll be an All Star by 23. I frankly don't care if it takes him til 25-26 to get to the big leagues. For me, comps are about potential, not about age-to-level and stuff like that. What 'could' he become... Navarreto may never get to AA. No way to know. But with his defense, I think he's got a good chance to get to the big leagues.

 

But mainly, just my personal opinion.

[Seth Stohs]

 

If my California math is correct, Seth,

 

Jorge needs to be added to the 40-man this fall, correct?  If not, is he likely to be gone?

 

He is eligible this year for the Rule 5 draft if he isn't protected. For me, I don't think he's a given to be added, though he is one of 2-3 that I think are borderline adds. I just don't think he'd stick with a big league roster for the season, so I don't think he'd be taken... 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Regarding Felix Jorge, I'm also puzzled that two qualified rankers can come to such widely divergent perspectives within a one-year time span.  Mayo had Jorge at #11 in his 2014 list- for 2015, he's not even in his Twins Top 30.  Seth sees the same results and moves Jorge up from #19 to #16. Any rationale for these two diametrically opposed conclusions? 

 

He wasn't in my Top 30 coming into 2015 either. He dropped out of my rankings (and most rankings) after his 2014 season. But he pitched his way back in in 2015. 

[mikelink45]

I was expected to see more in the top 20, none of these players excitement.  We have journeymen and bench players, but maybe my perspective is wrong - maybe that is what 16 - 20 should be expected to be, but I know that there are players below this list that would have lit up my prospect light more than these.  The stats that are quoted are pretty dismal, but then I have to reflect that we called up a handful of really good players and that is bound to weaken the minor league overall strength.

 

I am anxious to get to the next ratings. 

 

[jokin]

 

Navarreto's size makes it less likely he sticks at catcher in the long term.  He is a big dude

 

Salvador Perez would disagree with that conclusion.

[Thrylos]

Navaretto is a cut candidate.  .537 OPS after 3 years in the pros and a. regressing every year with the bat while b. getting biggest every year, does not bode well.   He is around 6'5" 250 these days.

 

The only way he could remotely be a prospect is if they pulled a Derek Rodriguez on him and turned him into a reliever.  That big arm could surely play more than his stick.

 

Turner has the career path of Drew Butera in the minors.  Only Butera hit better than Turner.  Prospect?  Sure.  But not number 19 in this system...

[Thrylos]

 

 

Salvador Perez would disagree with that conclusion.

 

Navaretto is bigger than Perez.  Plus he is 20 and has yet to hit at any level.  Perez made the majors at age 21 and never looked back.

[jokin]

 

Navaretto is a cut candidate.  .537 OPS after 3 years in the pros and a. regressing every year with the bat while b. getting biggest every year, does not bode well.   He is around 6'5" 250 these days.

 

The only way he could remotely be a prospect is if they pulled a Derek Rodriguez on him and turned him into a reliever.  That big arm could surely play more than his stick.

 

Turner has the career path of Drew Butera in the minors.  Only Butera hit better than Turner.  Prospect?  Sure.  But not number 19 in this system...

 

But what if that's all there is? In terms of prospects. I'm kind-of with mikelink45 to this point in the rankings. Not too much to get excited about here, even most of the lotto tickets, between 16-50 on this list. Lots of guys moving backwards, most only projecting as bench/back-up/utility MLB players or low-leverage RPs- but as mikelin45 also hinted at-

 

How much should we expect from this group, anyway?, and,

How good really is the Twins farm system in terms of prospect depth beyond the 6 or 7 Top 100 types?

Edited October 23, 2015 by jokin

[jokin]

 

Navaretto is bigger than Perez.  Plus he is 20 and has yet to hit at any level.  Perez made the majors at age 21 and never looked back.

 

I'm not arguing with you on this point. I myself questioned the jump in Navarreto's ranking upthread and pointed out how far ahead Perez was of Navarreto at the same age. Should guys that project as backup catchers ever be in an organization's Top 20? 

 

Frankly, the Twins probably should have looked more seriously into converting Butera when they had him, and they should seriusly think about converting Navarreto now.

[gunnarthor]

I really liked the Blankenhorn and Cabbage picks.  I said about Cabbage and I think it goes for Blankenhorn as well that they both might take a little longer to develop, sort of like Kepler, but they were the nice upside picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  I probably would have them both ranked close to each other in the 16-20ish area, myself, but I haven't really studied the system like Seth has.

 

 

[ashbury]

Should guys that project as backup catchers ever be in an organization's Top 20?

Probably. Guys who look like eventual utility infielders or fourth outfielders, or starting pitchers who will likely have to accept bullpen duty if they want to be in the majors, litter top-20s, even strong lists.

 

Think of it this way. How immensely strong would a farm system be, if the entire top 20 was entirely made up of "this guy projects as a starting first baseman, this guy projects as a starting second baseman, this guy projects as a front line starting pitcher, this guy..."? Practically a whole new competitive 25-man roster, including a few apparently qualified players riding the pine, if you'll just wait a few years.

 

Top 10, I'm probably with you, regarding backup catchers.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm not arguing with you on this point. I myself questioned the jump in Navarreto's ranking upthread and pointed out how far ahead Perez was of Navarreto at the same age. Should guys that project as backup catchers ever be in an organization's Top 20? 

 

Frankly, the Twins probably should have looked more seriously into converting Butera when they had him, and they should seriusly think about converting Navarreto now.

 

Fair point, but what if he does take the step in 2016 and people think that he can be more than a backup catcher.

 

Also, what's wrong with being a backup catcher. If the Twins would have moved Butera to the bullpen, it's pretty likely he never makes the big leagues. As a backup catcher, and one of the smartest baseball players around, he's now over 5 years of MLB service time. He's considered valuable by MLB Insiders, front offices, players, coaches, etc. That's nothing to scoff at, even though  many chose to do so.

[Seth Stohs]

 

But what if that's all there is? In terms of prospects. I'm kind-of with mikelink45 to this point in the rankings. Not too much to get excited about here, even most of the lotto tickets, between 16-50 on this list. Lots of guys moving backwards, most only projecting as bench/back-up/utility MLB players or low-leverage RPs- but as mikelin45 also hinted at-

 

How much should we expect from this group, anyway?, and,

How good really is the Twins farm system in terms of prospect depth beyond the 6 or 7 Top 100 types?

 

I would say that the top 2-3 prospects are what makes a prospect ranking for an organization. The Twins have 6-7 guys that will have them ranked pretty high even with the 'graduations' of Rosario, May, Duffey and Sano. 

 

How I look at rankings... 

 

You look for one of the top 2 to become an All-Star caliber player.

You hope that guys in that 3-7 range can become regular starters in the lineup or 3-5 starters.

You hope that guys in that 8-15 range can become quality role players, maybe bullpen arms, etc.

You hope that guys in the 16+ range can get to the big leaguers and help in any way.

 

Of course, there's so much wiggle room in all of that. I mean, guys like Blankenhorn, Diaz, Cabbage simply don't have enough track record and not quite enough  prospect hype to be Top 10-12 guys right now but clearly do have the potential to someday breakout and become a Top 10 guy. I just need something more.

 

Consider Jorge Polanco signed out of the DR as a mid-sized signing bonus, good defense, questionable bat prospect. Sano was my #3 Twins prospect right away after the Twins signed him. Polanco wasn't in the top 30. Polanco took two seasons in the GCL and didn't hit until he moved to Elizabethton, and then proved that was real in Cedar Rapids. Now he's easily a top 10 guy and someone who, in the right situation, can be a big league regular. 

 

Prospect rankings are for fun discussion and learning about players and recognizing them. But they're subject to change year over year as players develop. That's the beauty of it!

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure why Rogers wasn't a LOOGY this year, they needed one. I don't get it at all, frankly.

 

The others in this part? No idea, but probably not long term MLB assets, which makes sense this far down the list.

[Seth Stohs]

Just to look at my 2015 Twins Prospects, #s 16-20.

 

#16 - Tyler Duffey - knowing what we know now, and if he had only pitched 49 innings with the Twins, where would he rank now?

 

#17 - Chih-Wei Hu - he took another step forward in 2015 and was traded for a solid late-innings reliever.

 

#18 - Jake Reed - he took a step back, but he still is top 25 for me and is a good candidate to be successful in the Twins bullpen at some point in the next couple of years.

 

#19 - Stuart Turner - Defense matters... I still think there's some offensive potential in there. He had a solid second half... with graduations and such, he stayed the same for me. 2016 will be a big season for him to determine whether he goes up the list, or drops a bit.

 

#20 - JR Graham - he was a Rule 5 guy who was clocked at 95+ despite it being in his return from injury with the Braves. Obviously he's not a 'prospect' anymore, but given a little time, he can be a solid 6th/7th inning type of guy. 

 

2014 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Amaurys Minier, 17.) Kennys Vargas, 18.) Ryan Eades, 19.) Felix Jorge, 20.) Niko Goodrum.

 

2013 #s 16-20 --> 16.) AB Walker, 17.) Chris Herrmann, 18.) BJ Hermsen, 19.) Jorge Polanco, 20.) Luke Bard

 

2012 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Manuel Soliman, 17.) Levi Michael, 18.) Max Kepler, 19.) Niko Goodrum, 20.) Hudson Boyd

 

2011 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Max Kepler, 17.) Eddie Rosario, 18.) BJ Hermsen, 19.) Danny Ortiz, 20.) Bobby Lanigan

 

2010 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Jeff Manship, 17.) Tyler Robertson, 18.) Alex Burnett, 19.) Blayne Weller, 20.) Billy Bullock

 

2009 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Shooter Hunt, 17.) Joe Benson, 18.) Mike McCardell, 19.) Steve Tolleson, 20.) Brian Duensing

 

2008 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Jason Pridie, 17.) Erik Lis, 18.) Deibinson Romero, 19.) Nick Blackburn, 20.) Jay Rainville.

 

2007 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Kyle Waldrop, 17.) Brock Peterson, 18.) Jay Rainville, 19.) Trevor Plouffe, 20.) Joe Benson

 

2006 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Kyle Waldrop, 17.) Boof Bonser, 18.) Matt Garza, 19.) Juan Portes, 20.) David Winfree

 

There are some really good players... Duensing, Plouffe, Garza, 

There are some guys who got a cup of coffee.

There are some guys who "Roger" might be the only one who remembers. 

 

That's the nature of these lists... It's what makes them fun.

[Eephus]

If you took a composite of league's catching prospects, is it a position that doesn't rank too well? In other words, are good catching prospects hard to come by? If yes, these 3 middlin' prospects might be the norm for most organizations.

[ashbury]

Consider Jorge Polanco ... Now he's easily a top 10 guy and someone who, in the right situation, can be a big league regular.

The right situation being, he turns 24 years of age?

 

(Despite my posts elsewhere casting doubt about his readiness to step in as a starter for 2016, I remain very high on him.)