Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 2 (31-40)

[Seth Stohs]

Yesterday was Part 1 of my preliminary Top 50 Minnesota Twins prospect list, prospects 41 through 50. Today, I’ll continue the countdown by posting my 31 through 40 prospects. I definitely welcome any and all feedback on these prospects. Who should be ranked higher, or lower, and why? This group is headlined by some hard-throwing relievers who could surface in 2016.

 

As a quick reminder, players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2016 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)Top Prospects 31-40

 

#40 – Logan Darnell - 26 – LHP – Rochester Red Wings

 

Drafted in the sixth round of the 2010 draft out of Kentucky, Darnell has been a starter throughout the Twins farm system. In fact, he made his MLB debut in May of 2014 as a starter and made four starts for the Twins last year. He came to spring training this year as a bullpen arm. He spent April through July in the Red Wings bullpen, but in August he was moved into their rotation. He responded with his best stretch of the season. In those five starts, he went 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in 32.2 innings. It earned him a promotion to the Twins. Unfortunately, upon his arrival, he came down with pneumonia, lost 17 pounds and was unable to pitch. Long-relief appears to be where his role with the Twins can be going forward. He is pitching this winter in Venezuela.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (30), 2012 (25)

#39 – Brandon Peterson - 24 – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/Chattanooga Lookouts

 

The Savage, MN, native and Burnsville high school graduate was the Twins 13^th round pick in 2013 out of Wichita State. He was the Twins Daily Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year in 2014 when he posted a combined 1.57 ERA and 0.98 WHIP between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. He also added 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He began the 2015 season with the Miracle where he spent half the season before being promoted to the Lookouts. At one point, he went 26 innings without allowing a run. Combined, he went 3-1 with a 2.07 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Peterson tops out at about 94 mph, but he still is able to miss a lot of bats. He’ll likely begin with the Lookouts, but could get up to AAA in 2016.

#38 – Corey Williams - 25 – LHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Drafted by the Twins in the third round of the 2011 draft out of Vanderbilt. The hard-throwing southpaw touched AA by the end of the season. However, he hurt his elbow in the spring of 2014 and had Tommy John surgery. He missed all of that season and returned to the mound for the Miracle in early June, 14 months after surgery. He posted a 2.49 ERA in 25.1 innings with the Miracle before a 2.25 ERA in eight innings with Chattanooga. Getting through this season was a big thing for Williams. At full strength, it’s not unrealistic that he could pitch for the Twins late in the 2016 season.

 

#37 – Luke Bard - 24 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

After taking Byron Buxton and JO Berrios in the 2012 draft, the Twins used their second supplemental first round pick on Bard, a right-hander from Georgia Tech. From 2012 through 2014, he worked just 19.1 innings for the Twins due to a variety of arm injuries and a series of surgeries. In mid-May of 2014, he had surgery to re-attach a muscle that connects his scapula from his humerous (which isn’t very funny). Doctors were amazed he was able to throw at all. He returned to the mound for the Kernels in late May, just over a year after the surgery. He pitched in a variety of roles out of the Kernels bullpen and went 7-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 52.1 innings. Like Williams, the key was getting through the season healthy. He was back to throwing in the mid-to-upper 90s.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2014 (23), 2013 (20)

 

#36 – Tanner English - 22 – OF – Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

The Twins selected English with their 11^th round pick in 2014 out of the University of South Carolina. At 5-10 and 175 pounds, he is a tremendous defensive outfielder with great range and a very powerful, accurate arm. He played for Elizabethton after signing with the Twins, though he missed time with a sore shoulder. He played for Cedar Rapids in the 2014 playoffs. He played for the Kernels in 2015 and hit .265/.359/.406 (.764) with 22 doubles, eight triples and five home runs. He also stole 37 bases. Unfortunately his season ended early following a sprained thumb after a collision in the outfield. He missed the final three weeks plus the Kernels’ run to the MWL championship series. In his final 36 games, he hit .328/.400/.518 (.918). He’ll begin the 2016 season in Ft. Myers.

 

#35 – Mitch Garver - 24 – C – Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Garver was the Twins ninth round pick in 2013 out of the University of New Mexico where he played for four years. He spent that summer in Elizabethton. He moved up to Cedar Rapids in 2014 and was named the Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year. In 120 games, he hit .298/.399/.481 (.880) with 29 doubles, 16 homers and 79 RBI. That earned him an invitation to big league spring training. He moved up to Ft. Myers where it was a tale of two seasons for him. On May 31, after 41 games, he was hitting .185/.317/.215 (.532). However, over his final 85 games, he hit .272/.374/.386 (.760). Most have said that his defense really improved in 2015. He threw out 38% of base runners and pitchers really like throwing to him as well. He is currently in the Arizona. On Thursday, he played his first game and went 2-3 with a walk, a double and a three-run home run.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2014 (26)

 

#34 – Lachlan Wells - 18 – LHP – GCL Twins

 

The Twins signed the lefty from Australia in August of 2014. At 6-0 and 185 pounds, Wells is still growing and will add velocity. He debuted in the Gulf Coast League this year and was very good. He made nine starts (and one bullpen appearance). He went 5-2 with a 2.09 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 47.1 innings. He walked just 11 and struck out 49. He missed the last week of the season as he went to Japan and represented Australia in the U18 World Championships. It is the same tournament that Lewis Thorpe pitched in two years ago. Wells was on that team as well. Though he doesn’t throw quite as hard as Thorpe does, Wells is certainly one to watch. He will certainly begin 2016 in extended spring training and probably go to Elizabethton, but he could see time in Cedar Rapids.

 

#33 – Mason Melotakis - 24 – LHP – Did Not Pitch

 

Melotakis was the Twins second round pick in 2012 out of Northwestern State University of Louisiana where he was a reliever. Starting in 2013, he got the chance to start. He made 18 starts for Cedar Rapids before moving to the bullpen. In 2014, he made two starts for Ft. Myers before being moved ot the bullpen. He made 25 appearances for the Miracle before moving up to New Britain. He pitched in 13 games. He was supposed to pitch in the Arizona Fall League. However, elbow problems surfaced and he had Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire 2015 season. He should return in the 2016 season. As with others mentioned above, getting him through the season healthy will be priority number one. He’s blessed with a big arm, and a big fastball and a very good breaking ball. Patience is important, but he could surface with the Twins later in the year.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2013 (22)

 

#32 – Zack Jones – 24 – RHP – Chattanooga Lookouts/Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Jones was the Twins fourth round pick in 2012 out of San Jose State. After six games in E-Town, he advanced to Beloit to end the season. He posted a 1.85 ERA for Ft. Myers in 2013 and went to the Arizona Fall League where he pitched in seven games and left early due to lack of feeling in his fingers. Later in the offseason, doctors found an aneurysm in his shoulder and he needed surgery. A blood clot was later found in his leg which cost him more time at the start of the 2014 season. He went to Ft. Myers very late in the 2014 season and was the team’s closer in their championship run. He returned to the AFL. He began 2015 with Chattanooga and was a Southern League All-Star after a strong first half. However, things went downhill at the point and he ended the season Ft. Myers. Despite a tough second half, he remains a guy whose arm could get him to the big leagues.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (24), 2014 (22)

#31 – Michael Cederoth – 22 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

Cederoth, a 6-6 right-hander, was the Twins third round pick out of San Diego State. In college, he started and worked out of the bullpen. As a pro, the Twins will give him the opportunity to start. He made ten starts for Elizabethton in 2014. In Cedar Rapids in 2015, he made six starts and five bullpen appearances. He went 1-4 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. In 35.1 innings, he walked 18 and struck out 37. His season came to an end in early June when he was placed on the disabled list with an illness. He returned for Instructs. Another hard-throwing right-hander who will likely be in the bullpen long term. His near-triple figures fastball and pitch mix could make him dominant.

 

So, what do you think of Part 2, Prospects 31-40? Next week, we’ll continue the countdown.

 

Click here to view the article

[jokin]

 

#35 – Mitch Garver - 24 – C – Ft. Myers Miracle

Garver was the Twins 9^th round pick in 2013 out of the University of New Mexico where he played for four years. He spent that summer in Elizabethton. He moved up to Cedar Rapids in 2014 and was named the Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year. In 120 games, he hit .298/.399/.481 (.880) with 29 doubles, 16 homers and 79 RBI. That earned him an invitation to big league spring training. He moved up to Ft. Myers where it was a tale of two seasons for him. On May 31, after 41 games, he was hitting .185/.317/.215 (.532). However, over his final 85 games, he hit .272/.374/.386 (.760). Most have said that his defense really improved in 2015. He threw out 38% of base runners, but pitchers really like throwing to him as well. He is currently in the Arizona. On Thursday, he played his first game and went 2-3 with a walk, a double and a three-run home run.

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2014 (26)

 

 

Nice way to make your AFL debut, kid. Garver's walk, HR and 2B were off of 3 different pitchers, all with AA experience, including the double off of former 1st round pick, Peter Tago, who had performed the best of the aforementioned three in AA.

 

Way to send a   ittle AFL debut message... (about what you think of your Twins prospect status downgrade?).

 

Seth, any reason given why Burdi and Reed haven't thrown yet?

Edited October 16, 2015 by jokin

[clutterheart]

I have seen varying reports on Lachlan Wells.

FB up to 92 with a good slider.

Is that right?  Have you heard about how/what he throws?

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Not to sound needy, but could the TD crew put together a summary of the AFL games like they do for the minor league games during the season? It's a nice way to get a summary of how the Twins prospects do.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Not to sound needy, but could the TD crew put together a summary of the AFL games like they do for the minor league games during the season? It's a nice way to get a summary of how the Twins prospects do.

 

At this time, we are planning on doing a weekly report for the Arizona Fall League, highlighting the individual performances. 

 

We considered doing it daily, but for instance, on Thursday afternoon, Garver was the only Twins prospect to play.

 

We are also going to do a weekly article on the other Winter Leagues (Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Mexico and Australia). 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I have seen varying reports on Lachlan Wells.

FB up to 92 with a good slider.

Is that right?  Have you heard about how/what he throws?

 

I've heard that as well. I know he can touch 92. I don't think he sits there yet. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

Seth, any reason given why Burdi and Reed haven't thrown yet?

 

They have a lot of pitchers and typically relievers will work twice a week for 1, maybe 2 innings. I haven't heard anything more about those two specifically. 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

At this time, we are planning on doing a weekly report for the Arizona Fall League, highlighting the individual performances. 

 

We considered doing it daily, but for instance, on Thursday afternoon, Garver was the only Twins prospect to play.

 

We are also going to do a weekly article on the other Winter Leagues (Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Mexico and Australia). 

 

Awesome! Thanks.

[HitInAPinch]

Great to see lot of pitching upsides in the lower levels, especially lefties.  Disturbing to see the high number of serious injuries.  Bard is a pure survivor.  Best wishes to all!

[Steve Lein]

 

Not to sound needy, but could the TD crew put together a summary of the AFL games like they do for the minor league games during the season? It's a nice way to get a summary of how the Twins prospects do.

 

We're way ahead of you! q;) 

 

The AFL season has an off-day every week, look for them then...

[Seth Stohs]

 

Great to see lot of pitching upsides in the lower levels, especially lefties.  Disturbing to see the high number of serious injuries.  Bard is a pure survivor.  Best wishes to all!

 

Yup, when guys have had Tommy John or other major surgeries, age is less important in the rankings. When a college draft pick misses two years and is 24 in A-Ball, it's not going to affect me a lot. The hope is that, now fully recovered, they can move quickly.

[DocBauer]

I read lists like these and the first thought is, "Really? This guy is in the 30's (or 40's)?" And my second thought is always, "Man, despite graduation of some top guys, there is still a lot of potential talent in this system!"

[DocBauer]

Personally, because he's a catcher, because of his big year last season and a much stronger second half this year vs his disappointing first half, I'd have Garver higher.

 

I had almost forgot about Williams. He and/or Melotakis could provide a huge lift to the Twins bullpen. Hopefully soon.

 

Speaking of...seems as though there was some very, very bad mojo going through the Twins system last season and it only targeted top RHRP. If fate reverses itself, the Twins could have 4 or 5 top RH arms pounding on the door before the year is done.

 

Seth, If I'm not mistaken, when Bard was drafted, he was to be a SP yes? Is there any word as to a return to the rotation? Is his future now in the bullpen? Or is the pen simply the best place for him to continue his journey back for the time being?

[Mike Sixel]

Yup, when guys have had Tommy John or other major surgeries, age is less important in the rankings. When a college draft pick misses two years and is 24 in A-Ball, it's not going to affect me a lot. The hope is that, now fully recovered, they can move quickly.

Wasn't Bard hurt before being drafted also? I remember not liking this pick for that reason, but I could be remembering incorrectly. Frankly, more of these guys should move the bullpen sooner, imo. They have almost no chance to be starters, and we now know guys lose velocity a lot earlier than we thought. Lots of teams are calling up pitchers younger and younger.....

[jokin]

 

Wasn't Bard hurt before being drafted also? I remember not liking this pick for that reason, but I could be remembering incorrectly. Frankly, more of these guys should move the bullpen sooner, imo. They have almost no chance to be starters, and we now know guys lose velocity a lot earlier than we thought. Lots of teams are calling up pitchers younger and younger.....

 

Not all of us know.  

 

Nothing is more annoying than when people write about Twins "youngsters" making their MLB debuts, such as Achter and O'Rourke at age 27, Thielbar at 26 and Darnell and Meyer at 25- when it's quite possible that, at least physically, their best years are already behind them, wasted in some minor league ballpark. Tyler Duffey was wildly successful when finally debuting a few months short of his 25th birthday- but why was he demoted back to AA for another 53 innings to start out 2015 after having a very successful season in 2014 across 3 levels?  And then only called up when the Twins were absolutely desperate for a starting arm- and then being shocked to see him become their most effective SP? Isn't it fairly obvious that Rogers (also soon 25) probably will make a pretty good RP- possibly should have been called up to fill an RP role when Duensing and Perkns faltered- but a very marginal MLB SP?

 

Sure, not all of those guys mentioned here have the high level of quality stuff of the most-recent draftees, but sadly, the newer group of "power arms" that the Twins have focused on acquiring, appear to be on the same go-slow career-progression-track- and emptying a good chunk of the bullets in their ammo belts before they can put it to good MLB-level use.

 

(Has anyone done studies on what the team-average percentage of one-year-or-longer disabling pitcher arm injuries for young prospects is? Are the Twins typical, or on the high side?  I would have to think the percentages are off-the-charts higher for pitchers who already had a history of arm problems in college.)

Edited October 16, 2015 by jokin

[Shane Wahl]

Seth, your info on prospects is probably better than ever before.

[sane]

 

"The AFL season has an off-day every week, look for them then..."

 

Sample size be damned!

The Twins are loaded with young catchers!

Garver is hitting .667 and Turner is hitting .500 in the AFL.

They have a combined five AB, but who cares?

[Seth Stohs]

 

"The AFL season has an off-day every week, look for them then..."

 

Sample size be damned!

The Twins are loaded with young catchers!

Garver is hitting .667 and Turner is hitting .500 in the AFL.

They have a combined five AB, but who cares?

 

I like it... And, I do believe Turner and Garver will catch in the big leagues.

[bluechipper]

Tanner English seems to be a guy who would be a solid 4th or 5th outfielder in a few years. I'm interested to see if he can keep up his hitting from the second half of this year next year in Ft. Myers.

[Monkeypaws]

Considering there are still 30 prospects to go, this is a pretty impressive group 31-50. Several guys with a legit shot someday.

[jsteve96]

This list is really good, nice job profiling.. I'm starting to believe Garver is the catcher who makes it to the MLB though, turners bat is too slow and Garvers defense is getting pretty good from what I hear. If that power comes back he could be a solid starting catcher in 2017. Also English putting up solid numbers again, looks like there's 4-5 tools there hope he maxes them out. Cederoth overrated on every list I see.. I see him as a thrower more than a pitcher