Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50: Part 1 (41-50)

[Seth Stohs]

Since the end of minor league season, we have handed out some minor league awards. Twins Daily named Trevor Hildenberger the Relief Pitcher of the Year. JO Berrios won the Starting Pitcher of the Year for the second straight season. Max Kepler was the Best Hitter. Jermaine Palacios and Williams Ramirez ran away with the Best Hitter and Best Pitcher among short-season players

 

Today I’m going to start a preliminary Top 50 Twins prospects list and welcome your feedback. Today, I’ll post Part 1: Prospects 41-50.Players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at-bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2016 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)

 

Top Prospects 41-50

 

#50 – Zach Granite - 23 – OF – Cedar Rapids Kernels/Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Granite was the Twins 14^th round pick in 2013 out of Seton Hall. He was limited to just 25 games in 2014 due to a couple of separate injuries. He began the 2015 season back in Cedar Rapids for 19 games during which he hit .358/.463/.463 (.925). He was promoted on May 1 to Ft. Myers where the numbers weren’t quite the same. He hit .249/.328/.304 (.632) with 10 doubles, four triples and a homer. Listed at 6-1 and 175 pounds (maybe!), Granite’s best tool is his speed. He also profiles well at the top of a batting order as he puts together very professional at-bats. Early in the season, a Twins Daily writer asked Granite whether he’s thinking double every time he hits the ball to the outfield. He responded, “I’m thinking triple out of the box.”

 

#49 – Mat Batts - 24 – LHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels/Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Mat Batts spent summers during college interning at Baseball America. This offseason he is writing high school football stories in North Carolina. At times during the season, he wrote for Twins Daily. He was the Twins 17^th round pick in 2014 after playing four years at UNC-Wilmington. His fastball tops out in the mid-to-upper 80s, but he has put up remarkable numbers since signing. Between the GCL, Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids in 2014, he went 4-1 with a 1.78 ERA. He began 2015 by going 3-2 with a 2.21 ERA in seven starts for the Kernels. He moved up to Ft. Myers and went 8-4 with a 2.77 ERA in 17 starts. He walks hardly anyone and despite lack of velocity, struck out 8.1 per nine innings overall this season. Listed at 5-11 and 190 pounds, Batts has a deceptive delivery and a good pitch mix to go with good command. As they frequently say, the biggest challenge will be when he gets to AA.

 

#48 – Keaton Steele - 23 – RHP –Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

Steele is another four-year college guy. After playing at Iowa Western CC, he went to Missouri where he pitched for two years (and was drafted twice). The Twins made him their eighth round pick in 2014. He pitched well at Elizabethton in 2014 out of the bullpen. He began 2015 at extended spring training, but he made 14 starts (15 appearances) for the Kernels. He went 7-4 with a 3.41 ERA. In 89.2 innings he walked just 21, though he also struck out just 60. As the Kernels got to the postseason, Steele was pitching his best.

 

#47 – DJ Baxendale - 24 – RHP – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

The Twins drafted Baxendale in the 10^th round of the 2012 draft. He signed shortly after pitching for Arkansas in the College World Series. He’s got a good fastball in the low-90s with movement. He also has a good slider. He moved up the system quickly, reaching AA New Britain by May of 2013 where he did struggle. In 2014, he struggled with the Rock Cats before moving back down to Ft. Myers. It turned out that he was injured and just didn’t fully recover the rest of the season. He pitched for Chattanooga through the 2015 season. In 21 starts (two relief outings), he went 7-5 with a 3.80 ERA in 118.1 innings. He walked 40 and struck out 92. He has started, but his stuff may play better out of the bullpen as he continues to move forward.

 

#46 – Levi Michael - 24 – 2B – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Michael was the Twins first-round pick (30^th overall) out of UNC in Chapel Hill in 2011. He was inured that year and began his professional playing career in Ft. Myers in 2012. He played for Ft. Myers again in 2013. And he began the 2014 season in Ft. Myers. However, in 45 games with the Miracle that year, he hit .305/.375/.395 (.770) In 15 games at New Britain, he hit .340/444/.358 (.803). However, a recurring theme in his career, injury, had limited him to just 60 games. In 2015 in Chattanooga, he hit .267/.369/.434 (.804) with 12 doubles, five triples and five home runs. However, he was limited to just 63 games by injury. When healthy the last two years he has been a solid contributor. He has played almost exclusively at second base the last two years, though he played all three positions in college. His MLB career will likely be as a utility type of player, though he puts together good at-bats and could be a solid #9 hitter in the big leagues for some time. It would be nice if he could just get through a full season healthy.

 

#45 – Brett Lee - 25 – LHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Lee was the Twins 10^th round pick in 2011 out of St. Petersburg College in Florida. He has been a starter since his first full season. He was an All-Star in 2014 in the Florida State League, but he missed some time with injury. He was 10-5 with a 2.46 ERA despite a 54/36 strikeout to walk ratio in 106 innings. In 2015, he began the season with six starts for the Miracle. He moved up to Chattanooga and made 16 starts for the Lookouts. He went 6-4 with a 3.10 ERA. In 134 total innings, he walked 41 and struck out just 65. He has good stuff, and twice he has had stretches of three or more starts where he completed seven or more innings. He works quickly and gets quick outs. He is pitching in Venezuela this winter.

 

#44 – LaMonte Wade - 21 – OF – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

Wade was the Twins ninth-round pick in 2015 out of the University of Maryland. He fell to the ninth round, in part, because he missed significant time during his junior season with an injury. He finished the Big 10 season strong and was healthy when the Twins assigned him to Elizabethton. In 64 games with the E-Twins, he hit .312/.428/.506 (.934) with eight doubles, five triples and nine home runs. He also stole 12 bases. As impressive, he walked 46 times with just 35 strikeouts. He moved up to Cedar Rapids at the conclusion of the E-Twins season for the final four games and the Kernels playoff run to the Midwest league championship series. Wade is a great athlete with a top of the order approach at the plate. He can play centerfield, get on base and hit for some power.

 

#43 – Niko Goodrum - 23 – IF/OF – Ft. Myers Miracle/Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Goodrum was the Twins second-round draft pick out of high school in Georgia in 2010. He spent that season in the GCL before spending both 2011 and 2012 in Elizabethton. He was a very good shortstop for the Cedar Rapids Kernels in 2013 and in 2014, he was moved to third base in Ft. Myers. He posted a .672 OPS for the Miracle in 2014. He returned to the team for the first half of the 2015 season and posted .671 OPS in 53 games. He was promoted to Chattanooga where he hit .244/.332/.392 (.724) in 61 games. With the Lookouts, he played 15 or more games at third base, shortstop and in center field. An immensely talented athlete with great speed and middle of the field defense, it looks more and more like he will be more of a utility, role player should he get to the big leagues.

 

#42 – Jason Wheeler - 24 – LHP – Rochester Red Wings/Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Wheeler was the Twins eighth-round pick in 2011 out of Loyola Marymount. He pitched well between Ft. Myers and New Britain in 2014 and was added to the Twins 40-man roster following the season. Despite making just 12 starts at AA, and a spot start in AAA, in 2014, the Twins pushed him to AAA to start 2015. Unfortunately, he went 1-7 with a 6.58 ERA in 15 starts. The highlight was likely getting the opportunity to pitch with his brother, former big league infielder Ryan Wheeler, who was signed to a minor league deal and spent about a month with the Red Wings. Wheeler was sent back to AA where he went 4-3 with a 3.92 ERA. He was named the Southern League Championship Series MVP. Though he was removed from the 40-man roster in early September, he still has a chance.

#41 – Johan Quezada - 21 – RHP – GCL Twins

 

Signed by the Twins in 2012, he spent the 2013 and 2014 seasons in his home country, playing in the Dominican Summer League. In those two seasons, he posted a 6.02 ERA and a 2.33 WHIP. In 43.1 innings, he struck out 50, but he walked 74. So, how does he enter into this list? Fair question. As a 20-year-old in the GCL, he posted a pedestrian 3.38 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. However, he greatly improved his walk rate. In 21.1 innings, he gave up just 14 hits, walked 12 (still not good, but much improved) and struck out 23 batters. At 6-6 tall and a lanky build, he was frequently clocked at 97-98 mph. That kind of velocity with improved control is worth monitoring. He turned 21 after the season, so he isn’t young for his level, but he is a project signed just before he turned 18.

 

 

So what do you think of Part 1, Prospects 41-50? Next up will be prospects 31-40.

 

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[clutterheart]

Is it possible to put their previous ranking?

[HitInAPinch]

As always, thanks for the MiLB info, Seth.  I'm seeing a lot of injured year after year, 24 yr olds at lower-level leagues and a couple already targeted as utility players.  That doesn't bode well for the future.  But I also see some potential in Lee, Wade and Quezada.  So there's hope!

[Dman]

I still like Goodrum a lot.  If he could just improve that hit tool then I believe he can make it.  I think he would be a really good third baseman as he is athletic and can even steal bases.  Hit tool has to improve though and I wonder if it ever will.

[Thrylos]

I think that Michael is too low in this list.  Will easily crack my top 20 list.  Middle infielders with 800 OPS in AA two seasons in a row do not grow on trees.   Really encouraged with his progress with the bat and on the bases the past 2 season.  He is on the same trajectory with Dozier (if not a bit ahead; both 24 at AA.)  I think that he will be with the Twins in September and he is a potential Dozier replacement (less power, better speed and much better hit tool) long term.  So I guess we differ on Michael.  Just hope the Twins protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

Yeah, he does a hard time staying healthy, but so does the guy that will likely lead your list (with that rookie eligibility criterion   )

[Seth Stohs]

 

As always, thanks for the MiLB info, Seth.  I'm seeing a lot of injured year after year, 24 yr olds at lower-level leagues and a couple already targeted as utility players.  That doesn't bode well for the future.  But I also see some potential in Lee, Wade and Quezada.  So there's hope!

 

That's why they're in the 40s. Some good potential on this list, but injuries or inconsistent play or scouting reports or whatever  have them here. If these guys were top 20 guys, it'd be worrisome. That this group is 41-50 should be pretty encouraging for what's left on the list. Even after some really good prospects 'graduated' from prospect rankings. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I still like Goodrum a lot.  If he could just improve that hit tool then I believe he can make it.  I think he would be a really good third baseman as he is athletic and can even steal bases.  Hit tool has to improve though and I wonder if it ever will.

 

He is an incredible athlete and definitely should not be given up on. Going back to when he was drafted, it was all about tools and upside. I would agree that if he can get the hit tool improved, he's got a chance. He really struggled defensively at 3B this year, but he's got a good glove and a strong arm. Definitely don't give up on him!

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think that Michael is too low in this list.  Will easily crack my top 20 list.  Middle infielders with 800 OPS in AA two seasons in a row do not grow on trees.   Really encouraged with his progress with the bat and on the bases the past 2 season.  He is on the same trajectory with Dozier (if not a bit ahead; both 24 at AA.)  I think that he will be with the Twins in September and he is a potential Dozier replacement (less power, better speed and much better hit tool) long term.  So I guess we differ on Michael.  Just hope the Twins protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

Yeah, he does a hard time staying healthy, but so does the guy that will likely lead your list (with that rookie eligibility criterion   )

 

I don't actually disagree with anything you say here about Michael, except for being a Dozier replacement. He could be a replacement if Dozier got hurt maybe. 

 

I'd be surprised if the Twins protected him, but at the same time, I do think that he's shown that, when healthy, he can be a solid player. 

 

I think he can be a poor-man's Nick Punto... just without the great defense and rocket for an arm. Offensively, pretty similar, I think. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Is it possible to put their previous ranking?

 

I can do that... I'll include that in the comments here. But I'll only include guys who made my previous Top 30 lists  heading into spring training. Remember this is a preliminary list and after researching all 150 or so minor leaguers, it is definitely subject to change. 

[Trov]

 

As always, thanks for the MiLB info, Seth.  I'm seeing a lot of injured year after year, 24 yr olds at lower-level leagues and a couple already targeted as utility players.  That doesn't bode well for the future.  But I also see some potential in Lee, Wade and Quezada.  So there's hope!

This list is 41-50, would you expect any more than guys that have just a small chance to make the bigs and contribute a little bit?  Only 25 men on the roster at a time.  If one of these guys become a regular in the big leagues I would be surprised, Quezada sounds like the best chance to be a regular bullpen guy if he learns to throw more strikes.  He is young enough and has the velocity to have a chance to be a bullpen guy.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not as high on Micheal as Thylos is but I do like him.  I've always been impressed by his ability to get on base.  I probably agree that he's most likely a role player but I think he's very close to meeting that, so I'd have him higher on the list.  

 

Also, Keaton Steele is a great name.

[Monkeypaws]

Wade looks like the most likely to rise on this list to me.

 

Thanks Seth, good read.

Edited October 15, 2015 by Monkeypaws

[markos]

I think Wade should be higher. As for my reasoning, one common thread for over-achieving later-round college draft picks is an elite ability to control the strikezone in the minors, ideally with a very low strikeout rate and more walks than strikeouts. Some names that fit that profile: Dozier, Matt Carpenter, Matt Duffy, Brett Gardner, Brock Holt, Ben Zobrist and Sam Fuld. And since it sounds like Wade is athletic and can play a legit centerfield, he seems well on his way to being at least a 4th-outfielder. Granted, almost all of his success was in Rookie ball, so we will have to see how his plate discipline maintains as he is promoted. But right I would be tempted to rank him ahead of the two high school kids they drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

 

As for Michael, I do think there is a legitimate chance he is drafted in the Rule 5 draft if left exposed. As Thrylos has mentioned, when he is healthy he has been able to hit pretty well at AA. He is a switch-hitter, and if he can adequately play all the infield positions, he may be a decent and cheap bench option for a lot of teams. And in some ways his injury-prone nature may make him more inviting, as teams can probably expect him to spend a decent amount of time on the DL, which will make it even easier to keep him stashed all season. So I also hope they protect him.

[bird]

I'm going to give this list an 8 out of 10 in terms of really good names.

[Thrylos]

 

I think he can be a poor-man's Nick Punto... just without the great defense and rocket for an arm. Offensively, pretty similar, I think. 

 

Goodrum might be that (because he still cannot hit his way out of a paper bag )  Punto had.690 OPS in AA and .670 in AAA.  2 back to back .800+ OPS seasons from Michael in AA, is not Punto-like.

[clutterheart]

 

I think that Michael is too low in this list.  Will easily crack my top 20 list.  Middle infielders with 800 OPS in AA two seasons in a row do not grow on trees.   

 

Posts like this make me scratch my head.  He had 15 games at AA in '14....Its doubtful he gets protected and its double doubtful any team would take him in the rule 5 draft.  

 

 

He is on the same trajectory with Dozier (if not a bit ahead; both 24 at AA.)

 

Really?  

....

Dozier as a 24 year old at AA .318/.384/.502 351 PA
Michael as a 24 year old at AA  .267 .369 .434 264 PA

 

Michael's prospect status is not a lost cause.  He could turn it around and become a utility guy but lets face it, he won't make it to the team based on his glove so he better make the org notice him with this bat.   And to date he hasn't done it.  Not saying he won't but he hasn't yet.  

 

But to say he is ahead of Dozier?   Thats just an odd take....

 

[beckmt]

Was surprised to see Michael and Goodrum this low.  Rest of list looks like suspects, though pitchers that throw 97-98 always have a chance.  Do not expect Twins to protect Michael and if we lose him, he does not have a clear road to the majors with Gordon, Polanco and others already past him or nearly past him.

TR has some extra assets to deal, or we will see what he can do with them

[Mike Sixel]

Seth, thanks, this is one of my favorite things on the interwebs, thanks,

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think Wade should be higher. As for my reasoning, one common thread for over-achieving later-round college draft picks is an elite ability to control the strikezone in the minors, ideally with a very low strikeout rate and more walks than strikeouts. Some names that fit that profile: Dozier, Matt Carpenter, Matt Duffy, Brett Gardner, Brock Holt, Ben Zobrist and Sam Fuld. And since it sounds like Wade is athletic and can play a legit centerfield, he seems well on his way to being at least a 4th-outfielder. Granted, almost all of his success was in Rookie ball, so we will have to see how his plate discipline maintains as he is promoted. But right I would be tempted to rank him ahead of the two high school kids they drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

 

 

Maybe, and I think he's got the talent to move up the list. Maybe it's a case of having done this for a decade, but I tend to draw back on things from years past and maybe it makes me more conservative on some and less so on others.

 

2014's 9th round pick put up much bigger numbers at E-Town and moved up to CR quicker. He struggled in 2015 back with the Kernels and isn't on this top 50... 

 

Now, I've also been around long enough to know that these are just fun rankings and in the long run don't matter. Both of those players could be Top 20 guys by the end of 2016. You just don't know.

 

But the BB:K rate of Wade is very encouraging. We just haven't seen enough of him yet to know. I just couldn't put him any higher... yet.

[Willihammer]

 

 

....

Dozier as a 24 year old at AA .318/.384/.502 351 PA
Michael as a 24 year old at AA  .267 .369 .434 264 PA

Similar IsoD and ISO but a .030 point difference in BABIP.

[nicksaviking]

 

This list is 41-50, would you expect any more than guys that have just a small chance to make the bigs and contribute a little bit?  Only 25 men on the roster at a time.  If one of these guys become a regular in the big leagues I would be surprised, Quezada sounds like the best chance to be a regular bullpen guy if he learns to throw more strikes.  He is young enough and has the velocity to have a chance to be a bullpen guy.

 

I think Michael is almost certainly going to make the big leagues even if only because of the fact that he was a 1st round pick.  Only three college players drafted ahead of him have yet to hit the majors and two of those almost certainly would have by now if not for injury.

 

As a utility infielder with good on-base skills and the pedigree of a 1st round pick, there's a pretty good chance he'll get picked in the Rule V.  If the Twins protect him and put him on the 40-man, they almost certainly will give him a call at some point.

[jsteve96]

 

As always, thanks for the MiLB info, Seth.  I'm seeing a lot of injured year after year, 24 yr olds at lower-level leagues and a couple already targeted as utility players.  That doesn't bode well for the future.  But I also see some potential in Lee, Wade and Quezada.  So there's hope!

24 year olds that are moving through the system quick.. Dozier didn't play in the MLB until he was 25 and these guys going to AA are 1 good year away possibly, Michael sooner than that i think if he hits like he has but stays healthy

[cholm1976]

I kind of think it's surprising you've got Michael so low because he's been very good when healthy the past two years. But based on pecking order and injury history, it's understandable. I think there's a fair shot he'll be starting at 2B for someone within a couple years. I think his bat will play at ML and he could be a good bottom of the order bat or maybe a traditional type #2 hitter.

[jsteve96]

I think Michael and Wade are both underrated.. Wade put up crazy numbers along with playing CF and that plate Discipline I woulda ranked him around 20-25 and Michael's .800 OPS in 78 AA games and improving slg% Id have him around 30..

[DocBauer]

I agree on Wade showing promise with his tools and his early plate discipline. If he didn't have that, coming from college ball to rookie ball, I'd certainly have my doubts. He could be fun to watch this season. I wonder if he could end up being a mid-season promotion candidate to Ft Myers?

 

Wheeler and Lee, like Rogers and a couple others, give this Twins a few different LH candidates that seem...at least initially...to lack that something to be a top SP prospect. Sure hope at least one of them can find a real niche in the bullpen at least.

 

I am also a bit higher on Michael, though not as high as Thrylos. I don't feel he is a top prospect by any means, but speed, OB, decent hit tool and defense at a few different positions makes me feel he has a chance to be a solid ML utility player. 

 

Goodrum is a guy I've always been rooting for. I'm actually surprised to see he is still only 23 as it just seems he's been around for a long time. It seems the Twins have bounced him around a bit, position to position and the such, and I've always wondered if that has slowed his progress a bit. I hope he is a late bloomer, because with his athleticism, even if he's an age 26 ML'er as a utility type he could be very useful.

[jsteve96]

 

Maybe, and I think he's got the talent to move up the list. Maybe it's a case of having done this for a decade, but I tend to draw back on things from years past and maybe it makes me more conservative on some and less so on others.

 

2014's 9th round pick put up much bigger numbers at E-Town and moved up to CR quicker. He struggled in 2015 back with the Kernels and isn't on this top 50... 

 

Now, I've also been around long enough to know that these are just fun rankings and in the long run don't matter. Both of those players could be Top 20 guys by the end of 2016. You just don't know.

 

But the BB:K rate of Wade is very encouraging. We just haven't seen enough of him yet to know. I just couldn't put him any higher... yet.

you're comparing him to a guy who had a a K% over 25% with those great numbers in 2014.. he was bound to fall.. Wade's .320 BABIP is easy to replicate, Murphy's .400 BABIP was not.. Murphy did still have wRC+ of 91 in 2015  so it wasn't all that awful... but you're right they're almost all shots in the dark

[Seth Stohs]

 

24 year olds that are moving through the system quick.. Dozier didn't play in the MLB until he was 25 and these guys going to AA are 1 good year away possibly, Michael sooner than that i think if he hits like he has but stays healthy

 

People forget that Dozier debuted at 24, and less than 2 years after being drafted. he was a 4-year college senior, so the circumstances were different for him. 

 

Michael was still just 20 when he was drafted after his junior season. 

[jokin]

 

I think Michael is almost certainly going to make the big leagues even if only because of the fact that he was a 1st round pick.  Only three college players drafted ahead of him have yet to hit the majors and two of those almost certainly would have by now if not for injury.

 

As a utility infielder with good on-base skills and the pedigree of a 1st round pick, there's a pretty good chance he'll get picked in the Rule V.  If the Twins protect him and put him on the 40-man, they almost certainly will give him a call at some point.

 

And a team that drafts him in Rule V can pick Michael with confidence... they know they can 60-day DL him to keep him from cluttering their 25-man all season- right after he sustains his annual injury sometime before or after April 30.  

Edited October 16, 2015 by jokin

[ashbury]

Goodrum might be that (because he still cannot hit his way out of a paper bag )  Punto had.690 OPS in AA and .670 in AAA.  2 back to back .800+ OPS seasons from Michael in AA, is not Punto-like.

Yeah, potentially better hitting than Punto, and lacking the arm to make a manager comfortable plugging Michael in as a true utility infielder, makes them not very comparable after all.

[stringer bell]

Goodrum has the tools--speed, enough arm, power (especially for a middle infielder), but he hasn't demonstrated the ability to hit for average. It seems to me that both Michael and Goodrum have a good chance to make it to "the show", if not with the Twins, then with another team.