Article: What Do The Twins Have In Aaron Hicks?

[Nick Nelson]

As the offseason gets underway and the Hot Stove prepares to heat up, the first step for Terry Ryan and the Minnesota Twins is to evaluate what they have, and what they need.

 

One key figure in their planning process is Aaron Hicks, whose mixed-bag 2015 season leaves the Twins in a state of uncertainty going forward.In some respects, Hicks' season could be viewed as a breakout year. His .256 batting average was a massive step up from the .201 he put up between 2013 and 2014, he cut down substantially on strikeouts, and he notched 25 extra-base hits in 97 games. His .721 OPS was 115 points higher than his mark entering the campaign.

 

After rejoining the club in early July following a stint on the disabled list, Hicks looked like a different player than the one who had constantly struggled against big-league pitching, posting a monstrous .320/.378/.531 slash line with six homers in his first 35 games back.

 

The problem is that it's not clear whether Hicks truly turned the corner this season, or simply enjoyed a nice five-week hot streak. Because outside of the aforementioned stretch, his performance was really not all that different from those disappointing first couple seasons with the Twins.

 

Hicks opened the season in Triple-A and was called up in mid-May. In the month before he landed on the DL with a sore elbow, he hit .247/.293/.301, which was pretty much in line with his past production. And following that 35-game hot streak, he limped to a .198/.291/.336 finish in his final 34 contests.

 

If the 26-year-old outfielder had sustained his success over a prolonged period of time, it would be easier to look at him as a reliable building block heading into 2016. As things stand, I'm not sure that the Twins can. He will surely have a spot on the Opening Day roster – he's earned that much, and he'll be out of options so another start in the minors isn't on the table anyway – but in what capacity should the Twins plan to utilize Hicks?

 

It's becoming increasingly clear that in order to maximize his effectiveness, they'll need to use him as a part-time player. Even with all of his improvements at the plate this season, the switch-hitting Hicks continued to struggle when swinging from the left side, batting just .235/.302/.359 against right-handed pitchers. Since righties comprise the vast majority of the league's pitchers, that is not ideal.

 

At the very least, the Twins need to have a left-handed hitting outfielder on the roster who can fill in occasionally and offset Hicks' weakness in this area. A straight platoon would make a great deal of sense in terms of maximizing run production, although I'm not sure Paul Molitor is ready to go that far since Hicks remains relatively young and is a big asset defensively. Regardless, he should be shielded against righties to some extent.

 

One option, in the event that Hicks is in right field, is to platoon him with Oswaldo Arcia. I know that might not sound appealing in light of his awful 2015 season, but Arcia was consistently an offensive force for many years prior. He needs to work his way back into the mix and he'll be out of options next spring so a return to Triple-A isn't happening. Deploying him strategically against righties, against whom he has been very effective in the majors (.807 OPS), is a good way to accomplish just that.

 

Another possibility? Max Kepler, the lefty-swinging star prospect who debuted briefly in September. But the 22-year-old will probably not be in the running for a roster spot coming out of spring training and I doubt the Twins will want to limit him to part-time duty when he comes up. Eddie Rosario would fit the bill as well but will likely head into 2016 as an entrenched regular.

 

If the Twins elect to use Hicks in center field, with Byron Buxton starting in the minors, they narrow down their options somewhat. There's not a good lefty-swinging center field option at their disposal presently. Among pending free agents, the only name that really stands out is our old friend Denard Span, who probably isn't looking for a part-time gig. Span was absolutely stellar against the righties this year though (.330/.393/.486).

 

What do you think? What's your view of Hicks heading into the offseason, and how would you work him into your 2016 plans?

 

Click here to view the article

[sane]

"One option, in the event that Hicks is in right field, is to platoon him with Oswaldo Arcia"

If by platooning, you mean Arcia on offense and Hicks on defense (think football), that is a fantastic idea!

If you are thinking baseball, I suggest playing both of them simultaneously in right-field, so Hicks can chase every ball that Arcia misses...Buxton can cover the remainder of the outfield.

[jokin]

 

One option, in the event that Hicks is in right field, is to platoon him with Oswaldo Arcia. I know that might not sound appealing in light of his awful 2015 season, but Arcia was consistently an offensive force for many years prior. He needs to work his way back into the mix and he'll be out of options next spring so a return to Triple-A isn't happening. Deploying him strategically against righties, against whom he has been very effective in the majors (.807 OPS), is a good way to accomplish just that.



 

 

I'm sure the Blue Jays would vote for this option.  That way, Arcia can showcase his talents for his future spot in Toronto, after the Twins waive him, and he then becomes Chris Colabello's platoon partner.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

"One option, in the event that Hicks is in right field, is to platoon him with Oswaldo Arcia"

If by platooning, you mean Arcia on offense and Hicks on defense (think football), that is a fantastic idea!

If you are thinking baseball, I suggest playing both of them simultaneously in right-field, so Hicks can chase every ball that Arcia misses...Buxton can cover the remainder of the outfield.

Arcia actually plays better in right field. He makes the running or sliding catch towards the foul line better than Hunter, though probably not an overall defensive upgrade over Hunter. I mean Hicks.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Good question. You could easily see Hicks becoming a steadier presence now that the worst is behind him, or after going into a slump he might completely lose interest again. Maybe platooning is the right balance.

[stringer bell]

Aaron Hicks looked and played like a major league player in 2015. That is a big step forward for him. I have said for a while now that I don't believe he can hit enough to be an everyday corner outfielder and I still am of that opinion. The best use for Hicks is to be traded for value.

[HitInAPinch]

Hicks seems like he's on a slow learning curve.  His drop after the hot streak in July I'd call a lack of recognizing and learning to adjust to pitchers adjusting to what he's doing at the plate.

 

I believe Hicks deserves a shot at the starting CF next year for these reasons:

 

1.  He did learn and made a pretty good jump this year

2.  Buxton's hitting is atrocious.  He has a ways to go before he's really MLB ready. 

3.  Who else is your CF?  Shane Robinson?

[Major League Ready]

Hicks seems like he's on a slow learning curve.  His drop after the hot streak in July I'd call a lack of recognizing and learning to adjust to pitchers adjusting to what he's doing at the plate.

 

I believe Hicks deserves a shot at the starting CF next year for these reasons:

 

1.  He did learn and made a pretty good jump this year

2.  Buxton's hitting is atrocious.  He has a ways to go before he's really MLB ready. 

3.  Who else is your CF?  Shane Robinson?

Yes, Hicks should start the season in center. Bring Buxton and Kepler up as soon as they are ready and let their play dictate the outfield of the future.    I think Stringerbell is right that the most logical solution is to eventually trade Hicks.  He has more value as a CF and therefore is a likely trade candidate. I also just don't see playing Kepler at 1B if his athleticism is as good as reported.  Plus, it is probable Mauer is at 1B for 3 more years.     

Edited October 14, 2015 by Major Leauge Ready

[ThejacKmp]

I don't see too much to gain by putting Buxton in the minors so assuming he is up, I love a Hicks/Arcia platoon. Hicks will still get at bats against righties when he comes in as a defensive replacement so if he shows improvement there, you can wean him into an everyday role.

[Shane Wahl]

Rosario-Buxton-Hicks. Any other OF is indefensible.

[sane]

"Rosario-Buxton-Hicks. Any other OF is indefensible"

I think you meant to say "any other outfield is offensive and not as good defensively".

 

Naah, maybe you did say what you wanted to say.

[Mike Sixel]

I remain a Hicks skeptic. 34 good games does not offset all his bad games for me. I think MLR is correct, Hicks starts in CF until Buxton is more ready. It would not surprise me if Buxton is up at the beginning of the year, but I don't think he will be. I also think Hicks is a CF for some other team someday. I'd even be willing to trade him before the year, for the right piece, and have Rosario in CF, Arcia in RF, and placeholder FA in LF to start.

 

But, I would bet it is Rosario, Hicks, FA/Arcia in RF to start next year.

[SwainZag]

 

Aaron Hicks looked and played like a major league player in 2015. That is a big step forward for him. I have said for a while now that I don't believe he can hit enough to be an everyday corner outfielder and I still am of that opinion. The best use for Hicks is to be traded for value.

 

I just don't see a good enough reason for him to be trad  If you don't bring back Torii, you have Rosario, Buxton, Arcia, Kepler and...Robinson?

 

I do think there is a good chance that Kepler and Buxton start in AAA, you are leaving your OF core pretty thin by trading Hicks.  He is a plus defender and while wasn't consistent last year, he actually showed he can hit ML pitching.  With less than 900 PA and not being eligible for arbitration until 2017, we have to assume that 2016 should be a make or break year for Hicks.  I agree that the optimal situation would be to find a platoon partner, but think there is more upside seeing if he progresses further than trading him right now.  I don't see them getting a whole lot in return.

[USAFChief]

Rosario-Buxton-Hicks. Any other OF is indefensible.

By June 1st, I hope that's true, and true due to good play and not due to complete failure by others.

[Steve Lein]

I think we've had enough of the Oswaldo Arcia in the outfield experiment with Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton now available.

 

He's a DH, and unfortunately for him at the moment, we already have a DH.

 

You can platoon Hicks with Arcia somewhat for RF, but instead of giving Arcia every start vs. righties, I'd give him maybe half of them.

 

I'd bet it starts with Rosario, Hicks, Arcia in the OF next year, and as soon as Buxton is up, someone is out of here. I'd put my money on that guy being Arcia.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

This is an interesting analysis.  If the team does want to move to the next level, they do need to be honest in what they have in Hicks.

 

An Arcia/Hicks platoon could indeed create the proverbial two wrongs making a right. Watching the Dodgers deploy platoons with their talented crop of outfielders seems like a model to emulate.  A mix of outfield options among Hunter (if he returns), Arcia, Hicks, Rosario and possibly Buxton could work.  

 

I think the club could make room for all five with Hunter also doubling as a DH option.  

 

If the club starts with Buxton in the minors, the club could give Hicks a chance to prove he can handle an everyday slot, but quickly pivot to add Buxton - creating the platoon in right.  

[spinowner]

I think it's very possible that the Twins will trade Hicks, but I don't think it will be for at least a year, maybe two. By the end of the 2016 season I want/hope to have Rosario, Buxton, Hicks and Arcia as the four outfielders on the MLB roster. I would not trade any of those four unless/until Kepler is ready. Next year at this time we should have a much better read on what we have in all five of those players (and maybe ABW will be in the mix as well). That will be the time to decide whom to trade.

[Mike Sixel]

By the time you know what you have, they have little value unless they all worked out. Some of the value in these guys is upside uncertainty.

[Willihammer]

I have done a complete 180 on Hicks. Initially I thought he was too passive but after the call up it looked to me like he had found the right balance of aggressiveness and patience. His at-bats were very competitive, behind only Mauer, Dozier, and Hunter IMO. He would be my opening day CF and remain there until Buxton and/or Kepler blow the doors off of AAA pitching.

 

I believe Arcia will be in a separate competition with Shane Robinson or some other cheap FA / veteran pickup for the corner job. An outside shot he will compete with Sano there. The Twins will not platoon Hicks nor push Buxton or Kepler to the majors unless forced to by injury which would be the right call on both accounts IMO.

[Kwak]

The discussion about "5 weeks of hitting" reminds me of Plouffe.  I find it comical how people will dismiss Hicks due to a period of concentrated success yet continue to advance Arcia after long periods on concentrated failure.  

It was painfully demonstrated that Buxton is over-matched at the MLB level.  Combine that with a huge incentive for the Twins to reduce his service time in 2016 to obtain greater control it is axiomatic that Buxton starts, and remains, in Rochester until both the service time and "proofing time" contstraints have been achieved.  Kepler will also start in the minors for reasons "learned" from Hicks and Buxton major-league "success".  All of this points to the Twins actively trying to retain Hunter--for 1/2 of a season!  

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

"One option, in the event that Hicks is in right field, is to platoon him with Oswaldo Arcia"

If by platooning, you mean Arcia on offense and Hicks on defense (think football), that is a fantastic idea!

If you are thinking baseball, I suggest playing both of them simultaneously in right-field, so Hicks can chase every ball that Arcia misses...Buxton can cover the remainder of the outfield.

That was very funny. I chuckled. No, I laughed out loud!

[DocBauer]

The problem or issue going in to 2016 is not a lack of talent available, regardless of ML experience, but rather, almost too many options and not enough certainty. Now, that's not a doom and gloom statement, just a reality. Sano can DH and play some 3B when Plouffe DH's or plays 1B or sits. Or, you can trade Plouffe and play Sano full time at 3B. This changes the DH situation for Arcia and possibly Vargas. But what if Arcia is needed for the OF because Hicks regresses or Buxton needs AAA time? 

 

There's just enough "If" factors that complicate things that would prevent me from trading Hicks at this time. And while I'm more flexible on Arcia, I tend to want to keep him...for now...for the same reason.

 

I could see Hicks and Arcia in a quasi-platoon in RF with Hicks as the late game defensive replacement. I could see Hicks starting in CF with Arcia in RF...initially...with someone like Robinson off the bench as a defensive replacement. (*I just don't see Hunter taking a discount to come back as a part time OF/DH)

 

Buxton may be the linchpin here. I say it's 60-40/70-30 he begins the season with the Twins. While I don't think he will necessarily come out of the gates playing to his full potential, I believe his defense, and a somewhat improved offense based on ability and this season's experiences, will allow him to be kept from day one while still performing some "on the job" training.

 

Call it being overly optimistic if you will, but I prefer it to be a belief in Buxton.

[stringer bell]

My prediction on the first day of the off-season was that Arcia gets a last shot in right field, while Hicks starts the season in center, with Buxton and Kepler cooling their heels in Rochester. I just don't think the club wants to give up on Arcia (nor should they) and I do think that some AAA time will benefit Buxton.

[USAFChief]

My prediction on the first day of the off-season was that Arcia gets a last shot in right field, while Hicks starts the season in center, with Buxton and Kepler cooling their heels in Rochester. I just don't think the club wants to give up on Arcia (nor should they) and I do think that some AAA time will benefit Buxton.

Concur. Adjust from that as the season progresses.

[TJW]

Hicks . . . surprisingly Hicks!

 

Hicks came back from the dead this year, and has earned a shot as an everyday player. Yes, he had a hot streak that improved his numbers - but he was carrying some awful numbers from earlier in the year. Defensively, he is our second best outfielder, with Buxton first. Rosario had a good year in the outfield but is not at Hicks' level. Kepler may be good, but we don't know yet. Offensively, he is probably 2nd or 3rd best (Rosario better, Kepler may be better, but we don't know), but he has improved so dramatically, I think you have to wait on him. I do not think TR trades him (although TR loves to trade young centerfielders). Arcia will be dumped/traded before regular season as he does not do things the "Twins way." So, that leaves Kepler and Buxton

[Mike Sixel]

as for dismissing Hicks 35 good games (compared to how many awful games) and Plouffe's hot vs cold streaks, I don't know, one of them has actually been good over a whole season, and one has only been good for 35 games out of his career (give or take). I'd think it is reasonable to say one of these is not like the other yet.

[stringer bell]

While Hicks had one outstanding stretch of hitting, I would say that he looked the part of a major league hitter all year. It seemed that he should have been getting more hits early and late, but made up for it with that torrid midseason stretch. Considering the entire season, he was much improved, but not quite even an average hitter.

 

No one talked much about his struggles in the second half of the season because first Hunter, and then Plouffe and Dozier had notable swoons. Hicks' problems seemed minor next to the slumps by those players.

[Mike Sixel]

I can't speak for others, but I didn't mention Hicks because it seemed like piling on at the time.

[ALessKosherScott]

Buxton v. Hicks is in a ways this years' Santana v. Escobar.

 

Hicks is never going to be a superstar, but he looks set to be on a run as a Mike Cameron-esq center fielder for a couple of years. But playing right would also lower his value. Buxton, on the other hand, could be a superstar, but he's not quite there yet.

 

If you could have Hicks ready to make a good trade haul as a centerfielder and Buxton ready to be a star by next July, that would be the dream scenario.

[jimbo92107]

In the last 35 games of the season I noticed that Hicks was drifting away from the mechanics that gave him such a hot May. He started losing some of the jolt in his kick, and his bat cock started going away.

 

I recommend getting back that jolty kick, cock that bat tighter, then in the batting cage play Rage Against the Machine's "Bulls on Parade" at max volume. If that doesn't make you want to smash some balls, nothing will!

 

Rally round the family... with a pocket full of shells!