Would You Do It?

[bluechipper]

 

Lots of talk about Gray's underwhelming K-rate, but I haven't seen anyone mention that he is also an extreme ground ball pitcher. That makes up for the lack of whiffs to a large degree.

 

For the record, I think I do the deal. Very, very reluctantly. 

Well if the Twins do ever get an ace, I don't know why we should assume it would be someone other than you described- mediocre strikeout numbers and ground balls...yay!

[Mike Sixel]

What are the odds any, even elite, prospect is as good as Gray? Anyone remember Mark Prior and Dylan Bundy? People are willing to say "should" and not could? Like, the odds are high that he'll post an ERA under 3 over his first 500 innings? People think that is likely?

[gunnarthor]

I think there's a lot of smoke and mirrors to Gray's numbers.  His babip is pretty low probably b/c of his home park.  As others have mentioned, he doesn't have great strike out numbers and the same concerns people have about Berrios' size would be there for Gray.  

 

At the end of the day, I don't think Gray is an ace.  Beane would be wise to sell on him when he's high but I think the Twins would be better off holding onto their pitching depth and look somewhere else or add a different piece.  

 

Mike makes a good point and Gray probably will be better next year than Berrios (and Kepler is massively overrated on these boards).  But I'm really worried about making big trades for pitchers since they get hurt so often - esp when we aren't really rebuilding so much as finalizing a potential playoff team. If I knew Gray would be good the next three years, I'd do it but I don't so I'd vote no.  But I wouldn't criticize the Twins if they made this trade.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Lots of talk about Gray's underwhelming K-rate, but I haven't seen anyone mention that he is also an extreme ground ball pitcher. That makes up for the lack of whiffs to a large degree.

 

For the record, I think I do the deal. Very, very reluctantly. 

 

Yesterday, I had to think about it before saying No.

 

Today, I'm more in the maybe category. It's definitely a heavy price, but you often get what you pay for. Gray is an upper-level starter already. Still young. 

 

A good deal is one that both sides don't like a whole lot. This is a ton to give up for anyone, but you have to give up something to get something. 

 

So, I'm fully in the side of Maybe.

[kab21]

 

I think there's a lot of smoke and mirrors to Gray's numbers.  His babip is pretty low probably b/c of his home park.  As others have mentioned, he doesn't have great strike out numbers and the same concerns people have about Berrios' size would be there for Gray.  

 

At the end of the day, I don't think Gray is an ace.  Beane would be wise to sell on him when he's high but I think the Twins would be better off holding onto their pitching depth and look somewhere else or add a different piece.  

 

Mike makes a good point and Gray probably will be better next year than Berrios (and Kepler is massively overrated on these boards).  But I'm really worried about making big trades for pitchers since they get hurt so often - esp when we aren't really rebuilding so much as finalizing a potential playoff team. If I knew Gray would be good the next three years, I'd do it but I don't so I'd vote no.  But I wouldn't criticize the Twins if they made this trade.

Smoke and mirrors = 2.88ERA, 3.38 FIP, 3.49 xFIP from a 23-25 yr old?  In addition to that he has the desired 'stuff' that everyone loves.  He really doesn't strike me as the kind of pitcher that falls apart.

 

I also don't understand why you would be concerned about pitchers getting hurt when the main piece of the trade going back is a pitcher.  In addition to that from my casual observation pitchers tend to get hurt (TJ or shoulder) most often when they are in the minors or in their first couple of seasons.  Once they have shown that they can survive multiple 200 inning seasons the risk goes down.  That is just a casual observation.  IMO it is not because teams are exceeding the yearly innings limits but rather that some arms aren't capable of throwing 200+ innings and they break down regardless of how much they are babied.

 

I do love Berrios irrationally as a prospect but the prospect of adding a low 3's ERA 200 IP starter on opening day would be very exciting.  And having 4 years of team control is great.

 

Nick must have missed my GB comment but it was thrown in at the end of paragraph and needed to be stressed again.

[gunnarthor]

 

Smoke and mirrors = 2.88ERA, 3.38 FIP, 3.49 xFIP from a 23-25 yr old?  In addition to that he has the desired 'stuff' that everyone loves.  He really doesn't strike me as the kind of pitcher that falls apart.

 

I also don't understand why you would be concerned about pitchers getting hurt when the main piece of the trade going back is a pitcher.  In addition to that from my casual observation pitchers tend to get hurt (TJ or shoulder) most often when they are in the minors or in their first couple of seasons.  Once they have shown that they can survive multiple 200 inning seasons the risk goes down.  That is just a casual observation.  IMO it is not because teams are exceeding the yearly innings limits but rather that some arms aren't capable of throwing 200+ innings and they break down regardless of how much they are babied.

That's a fair point about Berrios.  No reason he would stay healthy more than Gray.  

[USAFChief]

Owe about the Twins keep Berrios and Kepler and add a FA front line pitcher instead?

 

It's only money that way.

[Vanimal46]

 

I think there's a lot of smoke and mirrors to Gray's numbers.  His babip is pretty low probably b/c of his home park.  As others have mentioned, he doesn't have great strike out numbers and the same concerns people have about Berrios' size would be there for Gray.  

 

At the end of the day, I don't think Gray is an ace.  Beane would be wise to sell on him when he's high but I think the Twins would be better off holding onto their pitching depth and look somewhere else or add a different piece.  

 

Mike makes a good point and Gray probably will be better next year than Berrios (and Kepler is massively overrated on these boards).  But I'm really worried about making big trades for pitchers since they get hurt so often - esp when we aren't really rebuilding so much as finalizing a potential playoff team. If I knew Gray would be good the next three years, I'd do it but I don't so I'd vote no.  But I wouldn't criticize the Twins if they made this trade.

 

Sonny's Splits: 

2014: Home - 115 IP - 3.60 ERA - 8.1 K/9 - .303 BABIP

          Away - 104 IP - 2.51 ERA - 6.9 K/9 - .256 BABIP 

 

2015: Home - 105 IP - 2.82 ERA - 6.1 K/9 - .225 BABIP

          Away - 102 IP - 2.63 ERA  - 8.6 K/9 - .288 BABIP 

 

He just looks like a solid pitcher no matter if he's pitching at home or away. No smoke and mirrors.

 

In regards to your last paragraph, with that logic how would teams ever make trades? Any pitcher, even our beloved Berrios can get hurt any time. Sometimes you have to look at the players and make a judgment call. I can understand if you feel the price is too high, but it doesn't sound like you'd be too mad about the trade being made. We do agree on a couple of things though: Gray will certainly be better than Berrios next year, and Kepler is extremely over rated on these boards. 

 

[kab21]

 

Owe about the Twins keep Berrios and Kepler and add a FA front line pitcher instead?

It's only money that way.

I am completely on board but we know that this simply won't happen. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Lots of talk about Gray's underwhelming K-rate, but I haven't seen anyone mention that he is also an extreme ground ball pitcher. That makes up for the lack of whiffs to a large degree.

 

For the record, I think I do the deal. Very, very reluctantly. 

 

Fangraphs' SIERA stat tries to take into account groundballs/flyballs/line drives. Think of it is a FIP modified by what kind of contact the pitcher gives up.

Gray's stats: 

 

2013:      3.04

2014:      3.56

2015:      3.80

Career:   3.59

 

That 3-year (also for Gray, career) number of 3.59 is very good. But it makes him 34th in baseball over that period of time.  Is that a very good pitcher? Absolutely. But there are not 34 Aces in baseball. Arguably, there aren't event 15-20. Gray just is NOT an ace, and calling him one doesn't make it so. He is a number 2 starter at best, with recent injury issues and declining performance each year. Would I trade him for him straight up for Berrios? Maybe, even though my gut tells me no. But for Berrios AND Kepler? No way.

 

[ashbury]

I posed this hypothetical on Twitter earlier today and I'm curious to get some opinions from the Twins Daily community.

 

You're Terry Ryan. Billy Beane calls you up and offers Sonny Gray in exchange for J.O. Berrios and Max Kepler. 

 

Do you say yes? 

Fun question - plausible scenario.

 

I say no. Both those players are too likely to play an important role very soon. Gray's an obvious talent but I'm also a little leery of believing too much in a pitcher whose home park is Oakland. Although, as already pointed out, his road splits are better than at home.

 

A package of 5 slightly lesser prospects would interest me more, and Billy Beane probably less.

[laloesch]

 

With the year he had, I think scouts will be reevaluating there projections with Berrios. The kid just keeps getting better and better. He has maintained a strikeout per inning through pretty much every level all while decreasing his walk rate every year. He was one of the best pitchers in AAA at the same time he was one of the youngest. Couple that with his work ethic and how close he is to the majors, It would take alot for me to trade Berrios.

 

Agreed.  First of all, lets just knipp this hypothetical in the behind with a dose of realism.  Oakland has said on many occasions that Gray is UNTOUCHABLE.   They are in the midst of rebuilding and are not going to trade him come hell or high water. 

 

That said, im just flabbergasted by some of the comments coming from the senior posters on this site that somehow think that  Berrios is "likely not going to amount to anything" and worth giving up along with Kepler for a song and a dance.  

 

Would I like to have Sonny Gray?  Yes.  I'm sure almost every Twins fan would love to have him.  But remember he only has two full years of major league experience  and hugely benefits from pitching in that cavernous toilet bowl of a stadium in Oakland.   

 

If anything his k/9 would drop below 7 to the high 6's (Kyle Gibson territory) at Target Field.  That's a far cry from the high 8-10k's per 9 innings you expect to get from an ace. Guys like Arrieta, Fernandez, Sale, Kershaw, Greinke, Scherzer, etc. 

 

Would I give up Kepler and Berrios for Gray, no-way! 

[Nick Nelson]

I don't think any player is untouchable in Beane's world. Especially if he has a chance to get back two top-tier MLB-ready prospects.

[ashbury]

Lots of talk about Gray's underwhelming K-rate, but I haven't seen anyone mention that he is also an extreme ground ball pitcher. That makes up for the lack of whiffs to a large degree.

Very low BABIP. One season, can easily be a fluke. Two seasons, well, two flukes can happen every now and then. But a few guys, Kershaw for instance, seem to maintain it. And anything a pitcher has in common with Kershaw, well, unless it's something trivial like hair color I have to kind of like it.

 

Still, Berrios plus Kepler is too steep a price for me. Right now. At this stage of the rebuild. To get us over the hump after a strong season, 90 wins followed by disappointment in the post-season? Might be a different story. If 2016 is that kind of season, there will be other aces and other top prospects to discuss hot-stove style, a year from now. And I respect the view that asks, how do you GET to that strong season where you can be even thinking about getting over the hump, but I still view our farm system as the way, for now.

[ashbury]

I don't think any player is untouchable in Beane's world. Especially if he has a chance to get back two top-tier MLB-ready prospects.

Ohhhh, that's what made the question oh-so-plausible.

[ashbury]

and hugely benefits from pitching in that cavernous toilet bowl of a stadium in Oakland.  

Check his splits before you go making assumptions. His numbers are even better on the road.

[kab21]

Please explain why his K rate is going to go down because he moves stadiums.  That doesn't really make any sense.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Still, Berrios plus Kepler is too steep a price for me. Right now. At this stage of the rebuild. To get us over the hump after a strong season, 90 wins followed by disappointment in the post-season? Might be a different story. If 2016 is that kind of season, there will be other aces and other top prospects to discuss hot-stove style, a year from now.

I definitely hear that. But the thing about this trade idea is that you might be leveraging these two prospects at the absolute peak of their value. They are both coming off incredible years. As much as I love both the potential of both players, and as much as we tend to romanticize prospects (especially here where there's such an acute focus on the minors), there's no telling whether either guy will have the same kind of luster a year from now. In fact, it's likely that at least one of them will not, based on the typical development rates for top prospects.

 

I'm not saying that makes this deal a no-brainer by any means, but it's a reality that needs to weigh heavily. 

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed.  First of all, lets just knipp this hypothetical in the behind with a dose of realism.  Oakland has said on many occasions that Gray is UNTOUCHABLE.   They are in the midst of rebuilding and are not going to trade him come hell or high water. 

 

That said, im just flabbergasted by some of the comments coming from the senior posters on this site that somehow think that  Berrios is "likely not going to amount to anything" and worth giving up along with Kepler for a song and a dance.  

 

Would I like to have Sonny Gray?  Yes.  I'm sure almost every Twins fan would love to have him.  But remember he only has two full years of major league experience  and hugely benefits from pitching in that cavernous toilet bowl of a stadium in Oakland.   

 

If anything his k/9 would drop below 7 to the high 6's (Kyle Gibson territory) at Target Field.  That's a far cry from the high 8-10k's per 9 innings you expect to get from an ace. Guys like Arrieta, Fernandez, Sale, Kershaw, Greinke, Scherzer, etc. 

 

Would I give up Kepler and Berrios for Gray, no-way!

Love the straw man part about giving them up for a song and a dance, excellent rhetoric, if poor logic.

 

If the "he won't be good part" is aimed at me, the odds are LONG that any prospect is as good as Sonny Gray has been for the last three years. Super long. So, yes, I think it is more than 60% likely Berrios is not that good the next three years. Doesn't mean he won't be, but the odds are he won't be one of the 10-20 best SP the next three years.

[ashbury]

I definitely hear that. But the thing about this trade idea is that you might be leveraging these two prospects at the absolute peak of their value.

Honestly, I think A's scouts and/or front office would have traded similar value for our two guys even before the 2015 season. Kepler's season has the earmarks of looking like an outlier in his overall career, in retrospect another season or two from now - which is not to say that he won't put up more-than-solid MLB numbers when the time comes - and I think talent evaluators aren't going to overpay for that. And Berrios likewise was considered our best young pitching prospect, and all 2015 did was solidify that - indeed Beane might have put Berrios on his 25-man this year - Berrios for 2015, Kepler for the future, a good Beane trade. These are simply two really fine prospects and Beane would go for the trade, then or now, if he's willing to trade his best pitcher that is.

 

/ edit - if anything, it might be Gray at the peak of HIS value - a year ago would we have been discussing this trade after just one full season like he's had?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Owe about the Twins keep Berrios and Kepler and add a FA front line pitcher instead?

It's only money that way.

Acually, yeah.  I know the Twins aren't likely to pursue that option, but if they really want to add a frontline SP this winter, FA would be the way to go unless they can swing a more favorable Donaldson-type trade for Gray.  There are a number of good candidates, some of whom will probably settle for 5-6 year deals which will expire before Sano, Buxton, Berrios, etc. hit free agency (and Mauer's deal should expire before they even reach arbitration).

[Mike Sixel]

When that FA is in his final 3-4 years of his contract, and mediocre or worse....they'll need to be paying the guys coming up now real money. Signing a FA pitcher to a 6-8 year deal is super risky.

 

And, Sano will be getting so much in arbitration, your eyes will hurt.

 

Which elite FA SP is going to settle for only 5 years, do you think?

[Nick Nelson]

 

/ edit - if anything, it might be Gray at the peak of HIS value - a year ago would we have been discussing this trade after just one full season like he's had?

Very valid point. Gray was not an elite prospect by any means so his emergence has been unexpected. But his performance carries many earmarks of sustainable success from my view. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When that FA is in his final 3-4 years of his contract, and mediocre or worse....they'll need to be paying the guys coming up now real money. Signing a FA pitcher to a 6-8 year deal is super risky.

And, Sano will be getting so much in arbitration, your eyes will hurt.

Which elite FA SP is going to settle for only 5 years, do you think?

No modern FA SP contract has been for 8 years except Mike Hampton way back in 2001.  6-7 years seems to be the max.

 

5 year is not impossible under the right circumstances (Cliff Lee).  I don't think two 7 year FA SP contracts have ever been handed out in the same offseason.  With Greinke, Price, Zimmermann, and Cueto, I suspect someone is going to have to consider 5 year offers.  There is an interesting lower tier of pitchers this winter too (like Samardzija) which might depress the market of the elites a little more.  Not that we'll get a steal or a bargain in FA, but the bidding may well be in a range that we find reasonable.

 

In 3 years, Mauer's $23 mil AAV comes off the books, Nolasco/Santana's combined $25 mil expires, after a 4th year, Hughes' $13 mil will be gone.

 

They are at absolutely no risk of not being able to afford their up-and-coming players in arbitration, even with another big 6-7 FA contract now.  In fact, I'd guess they'd even still have the flexibility to add another major FA in the next few years if they wanted.

[Vanimal46]

 

When that FA is in his final 3-4 years of his contract, and mediocre or worse....they'll need to be paying the guys coming up now real money. Signing a FA pitcher to a 6-8 year deal is super risky.

And, Sano will be getting so much in arbitration, your eyes will hurt.

Which elite FA SP is going to settle for only 5 years, do you think?

 

The answer is zero. The front line starters we are all salivating over (Zimmerman, Price, Cueto, Grienke) will all command long term contracts at $20+ million a year. Price and Grienke I would not be surprised if they got close to $30 million a year....

 

Meanwhile, Sonny Gray is a controlled asset for the next 5 years, and has already proven to be a sub 3 ERA guy in the AL. I know there were comments in the Cueto thread (and not directed towards you Mike) that people were nervous trusting an NL pitcher with limited success in the AL. Well, Gray can alleviate those concerns! 

[Willihammer]

Man if Greinke tests the market, the Dodgers will have gotten 17.5 WAR for 70 million (and actually 2.7 more as a batter), or $4m / WAR. What a bargain.

[nicksaviking]

 

Lots of talk about Gray's underwhelming K-rate, but I haven't seen anyone mention that he is also an extreme ground ball pitcher. That makes up for the lack of whiffs to a large degree.

 

For the record, I think I do the deal. Very, very reluctantly. 

 

I am so done with ground ball pitchers.  I don't think ground balls even come close to making up for a lack of strikeouts, in fact, based on the fact that grounders are more susceptible to errors than fly balls, I'd much prefer a fly ball pitcher who can't get strikeouts than a ground ball pitcher who can't.

 

Also, I trust pitchers leaving Oakland slightly more than I trust batters who leave Colorado.  I don't much care about the splits, I do care about the historical ineptitude of Oakland pitchers leaving Oakland.

 

I'd like Sonny Gray if he was on my team, but I'd hate to pay for him because you'll have to give up ace value for him, and he's no ace.  The Twins need to infuse the rotation with guys who miss bats, this wouldn't help.  If anything it would hurt.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Man if Greinke tests the market, the Dodgers will have gotten 17.5 WAR for 70 million (and actually 2.7 more as a batter), or $4m / WAR. What a bargain.

 

I don't see any reason why he wouldn't. The Dodgers will be happy to fork over $30 million a year for him. The ownership uses that amount of money as toilet paper. 

[Hrbowski]

 

I posed this hypothetical on Twitter earlier today and I'm curious to get some opinions from the Twins Daily community.

 

You're Terry Ryan. Billy Beane calls you up and offers Sonny Gray in exchange for J.O. Berrios and Max Kepler. 

 

Do you say yes? 

No. If I am Terry Ryan I hang onto Berrios and Kepler. If I am Billy Beane I start out asking for more. Sonny Gray pitched poorly down the stretch, and the games I watched him pitch in he seemed to tire pretty quickly, but it necessarily wouldn't be a bad trade. 

[DaveW]

Billy Beane isn't the A's GM anymore.