I posed this hypothetical on Twitter earlier today and I'm curious to get some opinions from the Twins Daily community.

 

You're Terry Ryan. Billy Beane calls you up and offers Sonny Gray in exchange for J.O. Berrios and Max Kepler. 

 

Do you say yes? 

Absolutely. That's the level we hope that Berrios can get to, who may not ever achieve those stats. Gray's controlled until 2020 and already a staff ace. Pull the trigger on it. 

I would counter with a player(s) already on the roster instead of Berrios (like Buxton), but if push came to shove I would hold my nose and make the deal.

Edited October 13, 201511 yr by Willihammer

That's an interesting one!  Sure would be hard to turn down Gray, although his K rate isn't that high and I'm a little nervous about pitchers leaving Oakland.

 

On the flip side, if I'm Oakland, I might also like that deal.

Ooh, interesting. I would say... maybe... yes.

 

Maybe yes. Probably yes. Gray doesn't miss as many bats as you'd like from a frontline starter but he has proven to be a pretty elite guy over a prolonged stretch of time. Also, he is a slightly better pitcher on the road so O.coO.cooO.co probably isn't a factor in his success.

Yes.  Though I'd try to get Gibson (or May) included instead of Berrios, even adding a third player.

Absolutely.

I'd like to keep Berrios but I'd include Stewart. Maybe make it a bigger trade and include Meyer and Santana or Polanco even a little more and get Vogt at the same time. If they are going to trade Gray they might as well trade Vogt go full blown rebuild.

No F'ing way. Gray's FIP has been 3.46 and 3.45 the last two years (and his xFIPs were not even that good). If Berrios alone isn't better than that by his second year, I'd be disappointed. Duffy had a 3.24 FIP this year (including his probably nerve-exacerbated first start against the Blue Jays) and May had a 3.35 FIP this year as a starter (it was better as a reliever, as one might expect).

 

Why does anyone have the urge to trade our best prospects for a number 2 or 3 starter?  Let's stick with the prospect we have who has a high probability of being a number 3 starter and an outside chance at being an ace, plus a potential four-tool outfielder who has ample potential to be an above-average regular.

Edited October 13, 201511 yr by nytwinsfan

No way. A SO/9 of 7.3 last year. He also only posted a 7.3 SO/9 in his entire minor league career.

 

I wouldn't trade Berrios for him straight up, and I surely wouldn't throw in Max Kepler.

I think I'd try to switch the pieces, but I like the idea.

 

See if you can make it Hicks and something else.

In a heartbeat.

Berrios doesn't have ace upside (likely a good number 3)and Kepler is a solid but not elite prospect. People fail too much in love with prospects around these parts.

 

Gray is an ace. I'd try to get Vogt while we are at it as well. Then I would trade Hicks and Gibson for Puig and call it an off season.

Edited October 14, 201511 yr by DaveW

 

In a heartbeat.
Berrios doesn't have ace upside (likely a good number 3)and Kepler is a solid but not elite prospect. People fail too much in love with prospects around these parts.

Gray is an ace. I'd try to get Vogt while we are at it as well. Then I would trade Hicks and Gibson for Puig and call it an off season.

I don't think I'd call Sonny Gray an ace. In the 2nd half this year, he had a 3.70 ERA and 6.5 SO/9

Berrios and a lesser prospect, yeah.

 

A lesser prospect and Kepler, yeah.

 

Berrios and Kepler seems too steep, although it's not outrageous.

 

How about Stewart and Kepler?  Or as others have mentioned, if it's Berrios and Kepler, I'd need more from the A's.  I like Gray, but there are some nagging question marks there.

Also, as a general rule, I'd rather not give up guys so close to contributing.  Offer guys further away.

I don't consider Gray an ace, but he's likely to get big money in arbitration anyway when he gets there. His hip also concerns me.

 

As far as him leaving Oakland, his numbers are better away from Oakland so far. So while it may be a concern in the future, so far it has been a non-factor.

 

Having said all that, I wouldn't do the trade.  I have high expectations for Berrios and Kepler. 

I'd bet on Berrios having a lower career fip than Gray 10 years from now and his age fits in nicely with our championship window. Kepler is more of an enigma but being able to play 3 OF positions + 1B and the potential to be a really good hitter makes me want to hold on to him.

 

We need to get a king's ransom to give up those 2 guys together. A no from me.

Edited October 14, 201511 yr by launchingthrees

 

In a heartbeat.
Berrios doesn't have ace upside (likely a good number 3)and Kepler is a solid but not elite prospect. People fail too much in love with prospects around these parts.

Gray is an ace. I'd try to get Vogt while we are at it as well. Then I would trade Hicks and Gibson for Puig and call it an off season.

I dont agree with you often Dave, but I do here

The odds are low Berrios is ever that good. I would probably say yes. I would maybe say no. That it's a tough one.

The odds are low Berrios is ever that good. I would probably say yes. I would maybe say no. That it's a tough one.

which likely means it's a fair trade. I would still try to add in Gibson and May instead of berrios. I'm not worried about losing Kepler overall. We have a lot of OF and Kepler seems to be closer to a good ceiling then great.

In a heartbeat.

Berrios doesn't have ace upside (likely a good number 3)and Kepler is a solid but not elite prospect. People fail too much in love with prospects around these parts.

 

Gray is an ace. I'd try to get Vogt while we are at it as well. Then I would trade Hicks and Gibson for Puig and call it an off season.

With the year he had, I think scouts will be reevaluating there projections with Berrios. The kid just keeps getting better and better. He has maintained a strikeout per inning through pretty much every level all while decreasing his walk rate every year. He was one of the best pitchers in AAA at the same time he was one of the youngest. Couple that with his work ethic and how close he is to the majors, It would take alot for me to trade Berrios.

Edited October 14, 201511 yr by gopherman23

 

With the year he had, I think scouts will be reevaluating there projections with Berrios. The kid just keeps getting better and better. He has maintained a strikeout per inning through pretty much every level all while decreasing his walk rate every year. He was one of the best pitchers in AAA at the same time he was one of the youngest. Couple that with his work ethic and how close he is to the majors, It would take alot for me to trade Berrios.

Yeah I wouldn't trade Berrios for "not" much, but IMO a proven young ACE like Gray would be one of the ones I would. 2.88 in nearly 500 IP by the time you are 25 in the majors isn't luck. Dude is legit.

Edited October 14, 201511 yr by DaveW

Maybe not Gray. Can I change my vote? Didn't realize his K's were so pedestrian.

It is a tough one since the #1 thing holding the Twins back is something that resembles an ace.  Gray doesn't have the K's that you ideally want but he is an ace-lite.  That refers to the next tier of pitchers behind the obvious aces like Kershaw, Greinke, Felix, Sale, etc...  The part that puts him into the ace-lite category is that he gets a lot of GB's which limit big innings. 

 

I really, really like Berrios and think he could become as good as or better than Gray but it is really common for elite prospects (better than Berrios) to come up and struggle.  Some never figure it out and some take a couple of years to figure it out. 

 

I think I would do the trade and take the sure thing.  If we could swap in a slightly lesser prospect for Kepler I would feel better.  These are two of my favorite prospects right now.

I like Gray.  But I'd really like to see how Berrios and Kepler develop.  I don't think we've seen enough of either yet, especially Kepler.

No, as Berrios should be good and another high projected guy like Kepler? DOUBLE NO!

Yes, but I'd tried to expand it to make the $ and the roster spots work by adding Nolasco for a prospect and/or Perkins for someone like Brendan McCurry or RJ Alvarez.

 

Yes, but I'd tried to expand it to make the $ and the roster spots work by adding Nolasco for a prospect and/or Perkins for someone like Brendan McCurry or RJ Alvarez.

You are dealing with Billy Beane here and not David Kahn.  Good luck with adding trash (Nolasco) into the trade and getting back a prospect.

 

Lots of talk about Gray's underwhelming K-rate, but I haven't seen anyone mention that he is also an extreme ground ball pitcher. That makes up for the lack of whiffs to a large degree.

 

For the record, I think I do the deal. Very, very reluctantly. 

 

No, as Berrios should be good and another high projected guy like Kepler? DOUBLE NO!

I lean this way, too. I'm willing to takes my chances with our own horses.