Article: The Case For Joe Mauer's Contract

[Mike Sixel]

20/20 hindsight.

Not even a little, it's why teams are signing guys so much earlier now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

20/20 hindsight.

Not really.  It was pretty clear from the get-go that Mauer was both a budding superstar and a likely Twin for life.  I think you can absolutely make a case they should have been more aggressive in locking him up longer and earlier, especially once he returned from his knee injury and Target Field funding was secured in May 2005.

 

Now, maybe Mauer wasn't willing to sign earlier or longer, but given TR's established conservatism and his similar 4-year contract terms from that era (Santana, Hunter, Mays, Guzman, Milton, Radke), I'm inclined to think that TR and the Twins didn't approach Mauer as aggressively as they could have.

[2BC]

After lurking for years I finally created an account here just to say, well done. This is one of the best articles I've read on this site.

[dgwills]

Absolutely they had to sign Mauer. The Twins should just look at the contract as part of the cost of the new ballpark. It seems they have. Really they didn't waste his prime years, as they had some good teams until they collapsed due to horrible pitching. Not sure what they could of done about that. As long as Mauer doesn't block anyone it's fine having him on the team.  That being said, Mauer doesn't change the fact that they have two good 3rd basemen. Moving one to 1st just lowers their value. They're better off trading Plouffe while they can.

[Mike Sixel]

Absolutely they had to sign Mauer. The Twins should just look at the contract as part of the cost of the new ballpark. It seems they have. Really they didn't waste his prime years, as they had some good teams until they collapsed due to horrible pitching. Not sure what they could of done about that. As long as Mauer doesn't block anyone it's fine having him on the team.  That being said, Mauer doesn't change the fact that they have two good 3rd basemen. Moving one to 1st just lowers their value. They're better off trading Plouffe while they can.

They could have done what they have done the last 2 years, and signed legit FA pitchers? They could have not cut budget every year until this year, and tried to win. I'm not arguing that they necessarily should have, but there were lots of options other than rely on terrible prospects, and bad FAs.

 

And, no, they are not just looking at it as a cost of the stadium. He is their starting 1B and number 3 hitter, not some ambassador.

[dgwills]

 

They could have done what they have done the last 2 years, and signed legit FA pitchers? They could have not cut budget every year until this year, and tried to win. I'm not arguing that they necessarily should have, but there were lots of options other than rely on terrible prospects, and bad FAs.

And, no, they are not just looking at it as a cost of the stadium. He is their starting 1B and number 3 hitter, not some ambassador.

You make some good points. Personally I think signing FA pitchers are a crap shoot. If you have a couple good pitchers it makes sense to try to fill out the rotation in free agency. They had nothing though. The hitters they had were getting old. In my opinion it was time to go into rebuild mode.

What I meant about the contract is that they should not let that cost stop them from signing other players. They have signed players to large contracts, so it has not hurt the team in that regard. When you take the contract out of the equation you just have to see if Mauer is the best first baseman on the team. Where he bats is irrelevant. So as long as he doesn't block a better 1b it doesn't matter. You could make an argument that having Mauer caused them to release Colabello, but I don't think that's the case. It could also be argued that he is stopping them from signing a better 1B. That would depend on if they have that opportunity or not.

[Mike Sixel]

All good points. I would have blown up the team, even more than they did, so yes, I would have "wasted" most of Mauer's deal (but then, I would have Longoria'd him, and this would not be an issue).

[Kepler Verge]

I will say this about Mauer's contract - I believe it was almost single-handedly responsible for Morneau's eventual trade.  With Mauer's new massive contract in the books and his propensity to get injured, the move to first was inevitable.  Exit Morneau, his best buddy.

[mikelink45]

Sad discussion.  The concussions to Mauer and Morneau devastated them and the team and it is truly sad to see us have to debate whether the highest paid player should be a PH.  On the other hand, we need to play the best each night and if it is not Joe he has a few million reasons to feel okay.

[old nurse]

 

This, 100% this. This is driven by their either inability or unwillingness to sign him earlier, when they could have. Then, they were unable to put enough other good players around him for several years.

The question is, what to do now. Clearly you give him a couple months to prove he is good again. But if he's not, and Kepler is raking and Buxton, Hicks, Arcia, Rosario are in the OF, well, you need to consider doing something differently.

Wishful thinking at best.  You are counting on an agent to be stupid and short sighted. They might have gotten one more year on the 4 year contract. The 4/33 provided Mauer with all the security he would need for the future. There was no need to go longer. He strung together enough healthy years at the right time that his agent would have the leverage. Shapiro and Mauer got lucky. The Twins did not. Sure it would be preferble for a win win. That does not happen that often on long term contracts.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Wishful thinking at best.  You are counting on an agent to be stupid and short sighted. They might have gotten one more year on the 4 year contract. The 4/33 provided Mauer with all the security he would need for the future. There was no need to go longer. He strung together enough healthy years at the right time that his agent would have the leverage. Shapiro and Mauer got lucky. The Twins did not. Sure it would be preferble for a win win. That does not happen that often on long term contracts.

The key isn't just trying to sign him longer, it's to sign him earlier.  The Twins didn't ink him for 4/33 until Mauer already had a ton of leverage, having just won a batting title and guaranteed at least a $3.3 mil arbitration award.

 

Maybe the Twins tried to lock him up earlier, but all the evidence we have suggests otherwise -- the length and timing of Joe's deal is virtually identical to that of Milton, Guzman, Mays, Radke, Hunter, and Santana.  Despite Target Field getting approved in 2005, they didn't begin committing any of their future windfall to players until at least 2008.  I believe the Twins approached Joe with a Metrodome-era-budget mindset, and it doesn't take hindsight to suggest that was the wrong approach.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I will say this about Mauer's contract - I believe it was almost single-handedly responsible for Morneau's eventual trade.  With Mauer's new massive contract in the books and his propensity to get injured, the move to first was inevitable.  Exit Morneau, his best buddy.

I think Morneau's own injury and 3 "meh" seasons at high salary were pretty much 100% responsible for the Twins not re-signing him.  The DH spot was also still wide open for either player if the Twins wanted to keep both for 2014.

[Kepler Verge]

 

I think Morneau's own injury and 3 "meh" seasons at high salary were pretty much 100% responsible for the Twins not re-signing him.  The DH spot was also still wide open for either player if the Twins wanted to keep both for 2014.

True, although Gardy always hated having a designated DH (redundant?) since it hurt positional flexibility.  It could be argued either way since we'll never know for sure, but I personally think Mauer's large contract and injuries played a big factor in Morneau getting traded.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

True, although Gardy always hated having a designated DH (redundant?) since it hurt positional flexibility.  It could be argued either way since we'll never know for sure, but I personally think Mauer's large contract and injuries played a big factor in Morneau getting traded.

Morneau was a month away from free agency (and a $8 mil AAV pay cut) when he was traded.  It would have been almost unprecedented for a team to extend such a player before his contract was up, and even re-signing him that winter seemed unlikely, simply due to pride (guys tend not to re-sign with the same team for a huge pay cut).

 

And Mauer was still on pace to catch 100 games in 2013 when he got the concussion just days before the Morneau trade.  It wasn't at all clear yet that he needed to move to 1B full time.

[Don Walcott]

I like the article, and particularly the perspective the author brings to the debate about Mauer.  This debate always seems to come down to blaming Mauer, the Twins, or some combination of the two for his contract.  I think Joe earned his contract when he was signed, and nobody should feel bad for the Twins for it.  What has happened since the contract is nobody's fault. 

 

Joe was badly underpaid from 2005-2010, considering his production on the field, and the sales of jerseys off it.  I think he's paid about right, maybe a little overpaid, for production in the 2012 and 2013 seasons, and overpaid for production for 2014-2015.  That's about 6 underpaid seasons, and at most 4 overpaid seasons, and I would argue only 2 overpaid seasons.  And he sells jerseys and was an important player to the fan base when he signed the contract, which is important when analyzing a player's contract.  I am hopeful, as most of the rest of you, that he returns to hitting .300 and has a .400 OBP, playing a decent first base, and playing in 150+ games between 1B and DH.  Even if this doesn't happen, I don't think the contract was a disaster.

 

Regardless of what happens next, I hope the owners don't attempt to use his contract as an excuse to not sign a #1 starter this offseason -- preferably Zimmerman or Cueto.

[LeatherAntenna]

Signing him or not signing him is a pretty silly argument when at the time he was coming off a 28 HR season and it appeared the Twins had a power hitter in him for years to come. What I find strange is why no one comments about a 28 HR contract year that came and went so quickly? To me he clearly showed that year he could swing for a fence. And now since he is consciously trying not to swing for a fence?

[Mike Sixel]

What is interesting about the spike is that NO ONE ever accuses him (with no evidence, like with many others) of taking PEDs leading up to his contract year. People accuse others of that all the time, but not him.*

 

*note, this "rant" is about the accusers, not Mauer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What I find strange is why no one comments about a 28 HR contract year that came and went so quickly? To me he clearly showed that year he could swing for a fence. And now since he is consciously trying not to swing for a fence?

According to Fangraphs, he hit 16 of his 28 HR that year to the opposite field:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C&season=0&split=4.9

 

Not exactly a recipe for sustaining that level of power.  (Surprisingly, he did almost equal that opposite field ISO/wRC+ rate performance in 2013, although fueled by more doubles over fewer balls in play, due to more strikeouts.)

 

Mauer actually had as many pull HR in 2009 (5) as he did in 2015.  Upon moving to Target Field in 2010, his pull ISO and wRC+ actually improved a hair over 2009.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C&season=0&split=4.7

[KGB]

 

Signing him or not signing him is a pretty silly argument when at the time he was coming off a 28 HR season and it appeared the Twins had a power hitter in him for years to come. What I find strange is why no one comments about a 28 HR contract year that came and went so quickly? To me he clearly showed that year he could swing for a fence. And now since he is consciously trying not to swing for a fence?

In 2009, Mauer had to stay behind in Flordia for April to rehab.  I alway wonder if they really worked him hard and made him stronger, because he came back in May an hit 11 HR's during the month. Which is many home runs as he has hit in any year afterwards.

[ajstolt_09]

We DID have to sign him to this contract. I thought it was too rich at the time, but that is besides the point. I think we all completely understand that the money has been spent and we understand that there are numerous young players making little money. Not every player on your team can be signed on a big contract or you would be called the Yankees. The issue with Mauer and this contract is what I call the "boat anchor" effect. Joe is basically anchored in at the 3 spot in the lineup and at first base. This is the issue. The studies have been done and Joe ranked very low, if not one of the lowest starting first basemen in the league in productivity. Being anchored in at these spots doesn't allow us to either move someone up or to sign someone from outside in order to improve either the 3 spot or first base. So if the last 2 seasons are what we are going to come to expect from Joe, he is dragging the team down, or best case, keeping it where its at and not allowing for improvement. It would be a tough pill for the organization to swallow to take him out of the everyday lineup or out of the 3 spot, but at this point, based on recent performance, a guy who NO LONGER reaches base 40% of the time, should not be in the middle of the order. The Mauer issue is possibly the biggest issue going into this offseason. Can we build the lineup to push Joe to the 6 or 7 spot? Can or should we rely on him to spend larger amounts of time at DH allowing for a harder hitting first baseman? Its complicated. He no doubt has sold the jerseys and gotten the organization their dollars worth, but now its down to production and there just hasn't been much. How do we change things knowing that hes going to be here for 3 more seasons? If Terry Ryan can figure that out, he probably deserves a raise!!  

[tobi0040]

 

We DID have to sign him to this contract. I thought it was too rich at the time, but that is besides the point. I think we all completely understand that the money has been spent and we understand that there are numerous young players making little money. Not every player on your team can be signed on a big contract or you would be called the Yankees. The issue with Mauer and this contract is what I call the "boat anchor" effect. Joe is basically anchored in at the 3 spot in the lineup and at first base. This is the issue. The studies have been done and Joe ranked very low, if not one of the lowest starting first basemen in the league in productivity. Being anchored in at these spots doesn't allow us to either move someone up or to sign someone from outside in order to improve either the 3 spot or first base. So if the last 2 seasons are what we are going to come to expect from Joe, he is dragging the team down, or best case, keeping it where its at and not allowing for improvement. It would be a tough pill for the organization to swallow to take him out of the everyday lineup or out of the 3 spot, but at this point, based on recent performance, a guy who NO LONGER reaches base 40% of the time, should not be in the middle of the order. The Mauer issue is possibly the biggest issue going into this offseason. Can we build the lineup to push Joe to the 6 or 7 spot? Can or should we rely on him to spend larger amounts of time at DH allowing for a harder hitting first baseman? Its complicated. He no doubt has sold the jerseys and gotten the organization their dollars worth, but now its down to production and there just hasn't been much. How do we change things knowing that hes going to be here for 3 more seasons? If Terry Ryan can figure that out, he probably deserves a raise!!  

 

You never go into a negotiation absolutely needing to do anything.  You have to have a point at which you say no.  His agent knew that we were cornered and took advantage of it.

 

This was a poker hand we really blew.  We incorrectly calculated what Mauer would have ultimately accepted, IMO.  He wanted to stay in MN.  The whole Boston/NY rumors were just that. I honestly believe if Joe felt respected and was looking at $170M he would have taken that and stayed here.

 

Had the Twins said, we really want to keep you here.  We will rip up your last year and give you 7/170....Joe would have said yes.  We could have went out 7 years instead of 9 (8 years contract plus his last year of his old deal). 

 

In fact, after the matter Joe's agent was pushing for 8/200 and his agent came back to Joe and said 8/184 is all I can get, they won't move anymore and Joe said let's sign. That is what he was trying to do, get as much from the Twins and then stay here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 16, 2015 by tobi0040

[Linus]

People have to remember that he was the best catcher in the game and maybe headed to HOF. It was a proper deal for that scenario. It wasn't reasonable to think he would fall off such a steep cliff

[tobi0040]

 

People have to remember that he was the best catcher in the game and maybe headed to HOF. It was a proper deal for that scenario. It wasn't reasonable to think he would fall off such a steep cliff

 

One of the best catchers, yes.  But anyone could have predicted that his catching would catch up to his bat and he was likely not a catcher the last half of the contract.  And also clear to most he was never going to have another season like 2009.

[Linus]

One of the best catchers, yes. But anyone could have predicted that his catching would catch up to his bat and he was likely not a catcher the last half of the contract. And also clear to most he was never going to have another season like 2009.

Actually as a 3 time batting champ his expected downfall due to catching wasn't anything like what has happened. And yes most people knew he wouldn't catch the whole contract but maybe only the last couple years. The biggest factor in the contract was that he got bad concussions. That's it. Sometimes it's just not any body's fault.

[Willihammer]

Its impossible to pin 100% of Mauer's decline on any one thing. The concussion might make up a significant portion of it, but it seems reasonable that an expanding strike zone, proliferation of batted ball data, outfield shifts and the like have all conspired against Mauer whose approach is fairly simplistic.

 

He will have to adjust. I'm hopeful that based on the second half of 2015 he is at least figuring out the strike zone again.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Ryan stepped in it when he said Mauer can hit .300 next year. What if he doesn't? 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Dumb question. Can the Twins rework Mauer's contract? 

 

Maybe instead of his 23,23,23,0,0,0,0..,

Mauer might agree to something like 18,13,8,3,3,3,3,3,3,...

 

This gives the team payroll flexibility, and gives Mauer more flexibility should he decide to retire or take a reduced role at some point before (or after) the hard 2018 date.

[spinowner]

Almost all good players are underpaid until they reach the point where they either become free agents or sign their first long term contracts, then are overpaid from that point until they retire. It would take too much work for me to research this but it would be interesting to see an analysis of the best players of the last 30 years or so, comparing career earnings and career performance. Similarly, it would be interesting to look at all MLB franchises over the last 30 years or so and look at cumulative regular season and postseason success in relation to cumulative payroll. This would give us more of a fact-based evaluation of Mauer's situation. It would also give us more of a fact-based evaluation of how the Twins compare to other franchises.

[LeatherAntenna]

I don't understand why the Twins organization doesn't pay 1/2 to 2/3 of the contract to a team that needs a 'pretty' singles hitter, convince Joe to agree to the deal (no trade clause, yes but do you want to play? for an embarrassing incentive) and cut him loose? But then I wonder what team would want a 'pretty' singles hitter at even 1/3 of his salary? It is a bizarre spot he and the Twins organization is in. The above post not withstanding I wouldn't bother with looking at cumulative regular season and postseason success in relation to cumulative payroll. Because if you isolate Mauer's salary in the analysis you might embarrass Mauer even more.

[ajstolt_09]

 

You never go into a negotiation absolutely needing to do anything.  You have to have a point at which you say no.  His agent knew that we were cornered and took advantage of it.

 

This was a poker hand we really blew.  We incorrectly calculated what Mauer would have ultimately accepted, IMO.  He wanted to stay in MN.  The whole Boston/NY rumors were just that. I honestly believe if Joe felt respected and was looking at $170M he would have taken that and stayed here.

 

Had the Twins said, we really want to keep you here.  We will rip up your last year and give you 7/170....Joe would have said yes.  We could have went out 7 years instead of 9 (8 years contract plus his last year of his old deal). 

 

In fact, after the matter Joe's agent was pushing for 8/200 and his agent came back to Joe and said 8/184 is all I can get, they won't move anymore and Joe said let's sign. That is what he was trying to do, get as much from the Twins and then stay here.

The fact remains that the money is spent and at this point the contract is not the issue. It wont hinder the team from making moves. The problem is the black hole he has become at 1B and 3rd in the lineup. He is blocking Sano or Plouffe from moving to first. He is also occupying a very important spot in the lineup. And hes not dangerous enough to want to play at DH much. Moving him from 3rd in the lineup will be a very tough pill to swallow for him, and management. It will remind everyone that the 8 year, 23 million per was maybe a bit overzealous. I just see the team being more competitive with Joe not at first everyday and batting 6 or 7