2015-16 Wolves thread

[kab21]

It is still going to be a tough season but there is finally hope for the franchise.

 

One domino has fallen.  Mitchell named Lavine starting SG.  It is a vote of confidence that he is a legit NBA'er.  I like the potential with his athleticism and he seems to be a pretty good spot up shooter. 

 

This puts Rubio, Lavine and Wiggins in the starting lineup.  How is the frontcourt going to play out?  Will they also find minutes for the future at the expense of the veterans?  Or are Pekovic and Garnet going to get a chunk of those minutes?

 

Where does Shabazz fit in?

[biggentleben]

I like Shabazz as an instant offense guy off the bench, but that's also Martin, so those minutes will be interesting.

[mikecgrimes]

Martin will get the minutes if he's here, but there has to be a way to get rid of him.  Maybe not a complete cancer in the locker room but no sense in keeping guys like him around.

[kab21]

A lot of that depends on how he handles the demotion.  He is kind of an awesome guy to throw in against the other teams backups and the Wolves still really need outside shooting. 

 

But if he mopes and just coasts because of it then it will be a problem.  Of course KG will rip him to pieces if that happened and it affected the locker room.

 

There was a decent article about this (maybe at Grantland) about his value.  He has some value now that the cap is exploding but right now almost every team is capped out for this season.  It is kind of hard to envision anything happening until the season is underway and injuries start to happen.

[ALessKosherScott]

Ideally, you're going to need Martin and Rudez to stretch the other team's defense so they can't collapse on the hoop and clog the lane. I'm skeptical about how well Lavine and Wiggins will play out together on the same court, but when Rubio gets healthy my gut feeling is he'll help space things out better with his passing.

 

It should be an interesting year.

[bluechipper]

 

Ideally, you're going to need Martin and Rudez to stretch the other team's defense so they can't collapse on the hoop and clog the lane. I'm skeptical about how well Lavine and Wiggins will play out together on the same court, but when Rubio gets healthy my gut feeling is he'll help space things out better with his passing.

 

It should be an interesting year.

I like the drive and kick possibilities with Rubio to Lavine. He's got a nice enough shot as well as elite quickness to blow past guys closing out on him.

 

I wonder if we're going to see more of Wiggins out near the three point line this year. I like the mid-post game, but I'm curious to see what he can expand to.

[kab21]

I am really interested in how Bjelica fits into the rotation.  He has been getting minutes during the preseason and has shot 11/20, 6/9 (3pt) and 6/6. 

 

Can Towns and Bjelica develop enough defensively to create a team of decent to good outside shooters (minus Rubio) that spaces the floor w/o a true outside bomber?

[bluechipper]

 

I am really interested in how Bjelica fits into the rotation.  He has been getting minutes during the preseason and has shot 11/20, 6/9 (3pt) and 6/6. 

 

Can Towns and Bjelica develop enough defensively to create a team of decent to good outside shooters (minus Rubio) that spaces the floor w/o a true outside bomber?

From watching the Bulls game and what I've read, Bjelica seems to have a high basketball IQ. If he isn't terrible on defense, he should get some solid playing time. He'll probably eventually start at the 4 when KG gets hurt and if Payne doesn't show some more improvement

[kab21]

 

From watching the Bulls game and what I've read, Bjelica seems to have a high basketball IQ. If he isn't terrible on defense, he should get some solid playing time. He'll probably eventually start at the 4 when KG gets hurt and if Payne doesn't show some more improvement

But won't Towns be starting at the 4 with Pekovic and Dieng getting most of the minutes at C?

 

If Bjelica surpsises then potentially the Twins have a valuable trade chip in Dieng.  He might have his limitations as has been noted but he is signed for <2M for 2 more years.  Most likely they would have to target draft picks because they don't need any more players right now unless they are studs.  This team is legimately 2 deep with NBA caliber players at all positions.  Who knows how they fit together but they at least have raw talent.

[bluechipper]

 

But won't Towns be starting at the 4 with Pekovic and Dieng getting most of the minutes at C?

 

If Bjelica surpsises then potentially the Twins have a valuable trade chip in Dieng.  He might have his limitations as has been noted but he is signed for <2M for 2 more years.  Most likely they would have to target draft picks because they don't need any more players right now unless they are studs.  This team is legimately 2 deep with NBA caliber players at all positions.  Who knows how they fit together but they at least have raw talent.

I think the Wolves are going to attempt to trade Pek and/or Dieng. Pek isn't going to be back for quite a while too, and his days as a starter may be over anyways. His contract is pretty much unmoveable, so I think he could give some really solid minutes off the bench since he's shown that his body can't handle big minutes.

 

Towns could probably play PF well, but he's probably best as a really athletic center.

 

The 2 deep looks really good, it's just going to take time to get the young guys more experience.

[bluechipper]

What are some record predictions?

 

I'll be "optimistic" and say 31-51.

[biggentleben]

Pek being traded is about as realistic as trading BJ Upton alone was for the Braves. In order to move BJ, the Braves had to include arguably the best closer in the game. I worry to think what would have to be included with Pek to make him trade-able.

[biggentleben]

I'll be even more optimistic and say 35 wins, but I do think that they have a low floor for the season - things could go bad in a hurry.

[bluechipper]

Yeah, Pek's contract looks really bad in hindsight, but I thought it was definitely the right thing to do at the time. He's an easy guy to root for, and I think he will become a good veteran leader for the team.

[kab21]

I will say 25 wins.  The western conference schedule is brutal. 

 

I also think that Pekovic would be an excellent 15 minute/game backup but the team has to formally make that move like they did with Martin and Lavine.  It helps that Pekovic is out for awhile and a front court rotation will be established by the time he is back.  If the young players are doing great then it is easier to put him into a 15 minute role.

 

The thing about trading Dieng is that there don't seem to be any rumors out there.  Perhaps rumors will pick up in a couple of months when it is obvious that there aren't enough minutes to go around and players on other teams get injured.

 

I could see Bjelica getting <10 minutes/game until a couple of injuries happen.

[TheLeviathan]

Pek being traded is about as realistic as trading BJ Upton alone was for the Braves. In order to move BJ, the Braves had to include arguably the best closer in the game. I worry to think what would have to be included with Pek to make him trade-able.

With the changing money situation in the NBA I think this comparison falls flat. You still won't get much for him but there may be more suitors than you think.

[biggentleben]

With the changing money situation in the NBA I think this comparison falls flat. You still won't get much for him but there may be more suitors than you think.

Maybe. Tristan Thompson seems to think there's more money out there as well, but now he's without a contract.

[kab21]

 

With the changing money situation in the NBA I think this comparison falls flat. You still won't get much for him but there may be more suitors than you think.

What year are you planning on trading him?  Right now almost every team is capped out for the year.  And even next year you still have to deal with matching the contracts unless a team has cap exceptions.  There isn't much point in trading Pekovic for an equally large contract. 

 

The good thing is that Pekovic's contract isn't actually going to hurt the Wolves considering all of the young and underpaid players that they have.  They don't really have anywhere else to spend that money.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not saying you have to trade him, just that you might find more suitors than the BJ Upton comp. I'd rather just ride his deal out.

[kab21]

 

I'm not saying you have to trade him, just that you might find more suitors than the BJ Upton comp. I'd rather just ride his deal out.

I'm just saying that because of the cap rules and matching salary rules that it will be really hard to trade him this year much less find a team that will give you something of value for him.  In another year with a moderately effective season it might be possible.

 

You are right though that he isn't as worthless (negative value) as BJ though.

[TheLeviathan]

Pek staying healthy at all is going to do a world of good for his value.  That alone, production aside, is going to be important.

[biggentleben]

Of course, the Upton comment was intended to be perfect apples to apples comparison.

 

FFS...

[TheLeviathan]

Ben, it was apples to hamburgers. Upton was a sub Mendoza hitter owed buckets of money, Pek is an inside scorer that just can't stay healthy who is overpaid.

 

Since virtually everyone is overpaid in the NBA and post scores are hard to come by, their trade status/value just isn't comparable at all.

[ALessKosherScott]

A healthy Rubio and Pek, they can win somewhere in the 30s. If they're not, well, Ben Simmons wouldn't be a bad piece to add.

[kab21]

So this Bjelica guy seems like a 4 that just stands out at the 3 point line and takes 3 pointers based on the % of his shots that are 3 pt'ers.  That could be quite an asset if the other guys can create open shots for him.  And of course if he can play defense adequately.

[bluechipper]

 

So this Bjelica guy seems like a 4 that just stands out at the 3 point line and takes 3 pointers based on the % of his shots that are 3 pt'ers.  That could be quite an asset if the other guys can create open shots for him.  And of course if he can play defense adequately.

I am definitely intrigued by Bjelica. I have a hope that after adjusting to the NBA and improving this year, that he is going to be a solid starting power forward by next year. I think he's going to be a good rebounder and smart offensive player, but the problem may be defending opposing 4s.

[FattCrapps]

"In this world nothing can be said to be certain; except death, taxes, and betting the under on the Timberwolves."

 

 

[Vanimal46]

Found a link that has Sportsbook's over/under wins totals for all teams. Minnesota Timberwolves at 28.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/vegas-win-totals-nba-season-2015-10 

[Willihammer]

Bad link?

 

Woofies are 26.5 according to a 10/10 line here: https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2014-15-nba-win-totals/

 

Further from the mean (41) than any other team. Easiest bet on the board really (over).

 

See sig

 

edit: looking again, the Spurs, Cavs, and OKC are further. I would bet on those four to regress to the mean.

[kab21]

Your link is from 2014.  I don't gamble but I would invest my entire life savings on the under 41 for the Knicks.