Article: Winning Season Raises Expectations for Inexperienced, Inconsistent Minnesota Twins

[Tom Schreier]

"I’m coming here to win. I think that it’s very important to lay that out there, right from the start. Things can change in this game very dramatically at this level."

— Paul Molitor at the press conference in November, announcing his hiring as Twins manager

 

"It might have sounded corny last winter when I talked about 70-92 and the fine line of being able to at least cut that in half by winning 10 more games or whatever it is. There was enough signs there for me to think that it could happen."

— Molitor the morning before the Twins were officially eliminated from the playoffs

 

The Minnesota Twins just finished their first winning season since 2010, and in doing so have accelerated their rebuilding project after four years of 90-loss seasons. Second-year manager Paul Molitor will be expected to juggle a roster full of players who are either young and volatile in their production or are experienced and, at times, inconsistent while understanding that the expectation, inside and outside the organization, is that his team will make the playoffs next year.Looking back at the 2015 season, it was certainly an improvement, but as Brandon Warne pointed out in his eulogy for this year’s team, take away the 20-7 May, and the Twins would have finished with around 76 wins. That would be on the high end of external expectations, but would not have put the team anywhere near Wild Card consideration. “I had some expectations that we were gonna be very good and be in this thing and battle in September and all that stuff,” Ryan said after the season had concluded, “and it came true. And that was rewarding.”

 

It is amazing, in some ways, that this team got as far as they did. Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas, two rookie darlings from 2014, regressed this year. Oswaldo Arcia, owner of 36 big-league home runs, played 19 major league games this year. All-Stars Brian Dozier and Glen Perkins regressed in the second half, as did pitchers Mike Pelfrey and Kyle Gibson. Phil Hughes had a rough encore to his ace-like 2014 season, and Joe Mauer hit .265/.338/.380 with a career-high 112 strikeouts and limited power.

 

It’s a testament to team leadership and the young talent that surfaced from the farm system that the Twins got as far as they did. Torii Hunter went through his fair share of slumps this season but was a massive clubhouse presence. He started the dance party phenomenon, worked with Aaron Hicks — who had a breakout year — and Byron Buxton on a daily basis, and became the voice of the franchise once again. Dozier and Trevor Plouffe also have become vocal leaders on the team and offered an equal dose of power and defense in the infield. Eduardo Escobar established himself at shortstop at the end of the season, and Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano lived up to the billing as two of the game’s top prospects.

 

In the field, at least, things seemed to balance themselves out. On the pitcher’s mound, Minnesota got by with a makeshift rotation and bullpen. Ervin Santana was suspended for half the season. Ricky Nolasco was injured for most of it. Hughes wasn’t himself. Gibson and Pelfrey struggled in the second half.

 

Trevor May showed promise as a starter but was moved to the bullpen to help stabilize the relief corps, which was held together by Blaine Boyer, a 34-year-old journeyman, and Aaron Thompson, who was demoted after two-and-a-half months of solid relief. An under the radar trade for Kevin Jepsen paid dividends when he took over as closer after Perkins’ second-half struggles and injury. But a promising trio of young relievers — Nick Burdi, Zach Jones and Jake Reed — never surfaced, and top prospect Alex Meyer took a step back this season.

 

Looking ahead to next year, there’s going to be another roster overhaul like there was this season, but the image of what this team will look like in the long run isn’t hard to envision. An outfield of Hicks in left, Buxton in center and Rosario in right: Hicks can leadoff and rob hitters at the lower left field wall; Buxton is unnaturally fast and has plenty of range; and Rosario has a cannon arm, which is an asset in right. Hunter, if he returns, could start as either the right fielder — Rosario is expected to regress and might need a minor league stint or two — or as a fourth outfielder, if he’s willing to accept that role. Max Kepler, who had a strong minor league season, would have the opportunity to challenge for a roster spot knowing the aging Hunter will need time off.

 

As far as the infield goes, there will be a competition at third base, assuming Minnesota doesn’t trade Plouffe in the offseason. The Twins want Sano to play in the field next year, and while his strikeout count was high, he looks to be a bona fide major league player at this point — meaning that he’ll either be a third or first baseman, and Minnesota is committed to Mauer at first. Escobar has staked a claim at short after a season-long battle with Eduardo Nunez and, to a lesser extent, Jorge Polanco, for a position that has long been in flux.

 

Catcher will need to be addressed in the offseason. Ryan has offered his support for Kurt Suzuki, but the veteran catcher did not have a great year at the plate (.240/.296/.314) and only threw out 15 percent of baserunners, allowing 80 stolen bases while only throwing out 14 players. Eric Fryer and Chris Herrmann didn’t fare much better, with Fryer hitting .227/.370/.318 and Herrmann .146/.214/.272 in their age 29 and 27 seasons, respectively. “If there is a catcher available that can help this club,” says Ryan, “we’ll look at it.”

 

He also says he expects Hughes to have a bounce-back season, and if he does, he becomes the de facto ace of the staff. Santana showed No. 2-, or at least No. 3-, caliber stuff this year, and should be inked into the rotation next year. Gibson should get another shot, given his strong first half, if he is not dealt in the offseason.

 

That leaves two slots for a slew of candidates: May, who was told to return stretched out next season; Jose Berrios, a top prospect that was on the verge of a call up this year; Nolasco, who has struggled with injury during his two years as a Twin; Tommy Milone, who was inconsistent but finished strong; and Tyler Duffey, a surprise call-up who did everything he could to earn a starting spot next year.

 

The Twins started to look like themselves again this year after a long period of drought, but it doesn’t get any easier going forward. The youth of this team has to continue to progress. Players like Perkins, Gibson and Dozier have to have strong second halves. The bullpen could use an influx of hard-throwing youth. Hughes has to be an ace. Mauer has to return to his former self at the plate.

 

Having said that, the Twins managed to win 83 games with an unstable rotation, a slew of veterans regressing in the second half and the mercurial production of young players. Baseball, in general, can be analyzed to death. Much of that information is good, but sometimes it comes down to team chemistry and a pinch of luck. “Some people might call it not successful now,” said Hunter at the end of the year, “but for us, everybody said — all the critics, all the analysis, all the sabermetrics, everything you can name — said the Twins were gonna be in last place. They were wrong. We did a great job. Give it a B-plus. You can always do better.”

 

Cold Omaha can now be found on 92KQRS.com, 93X.com and 105TheVibe.com. Follow us @ColdOmahaMN.

 

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[Platoon]

Discussing Hunter as a 4th OF is similar in wasted time as discussing trading Mauer. Torri has been clear, crystal, as to the chances he signs without a guarantee of a full time job. If you think he's kidding ask Buxton and Arcia. Not sure if you meant Berrios was coming north, but he won't be. They will never burn service time on him next spring. As for Kurt, Ryan has already offered his support. And if I had a dime for every time TR said, "if there's a [player] there who can help, of course we'll look at him" I would be retired, and reading TD at 4 pm......... Oh wait.......

[Rosterman]

Cleveland was supposed to be better this season, and they regressed a bit, but right now have a very low payroll and all the ptential in the world to be strong out-of-the-gate in 2016. Though no one over-excelled in 2015, the Twins outlook is more than promising.

 

Where you have to ask the questions is depth. They have some depth in the outfield...five possible guys and you can supplement that with an AAA-type reserve. There is no backup at catcher, and although Suzuki played hard and gave adequate numbers offensively (I can';t believe he did bat second for awhile), he is not the future, and not the guy you want behind-the-plate for a contending team.

 

We have Vargas and Kepler backing up first. We have Polanco backing up second. We have no one abcking up short. We have Plouffe and Sano battling it out for third.

 

There, we pretty much covered the gp-tos for the Twins offensively in 2016. AAA will be full of Chattanooga advancements and unnamed minor free agents.

 

We can talk about the May, but let's talk about Eeptember. Santana and Duffey were brilliant. Plefrey didn't really do anything for the Twins that May couldn't have replicated. Milone was hot and cold. Gibson was consistent, neither great, neither horrible. There, we have one starter too many. I hope Ryan doesn't sign another swingman like Stafuuer, but would like to think that for emergency purposes he could trust Rogers or Dean to pull some major league innings until Berrios is truly ready and Meyer figures things out. Twins set for rotation, although we can only hope Nolasco can dobetter than...Pelfry in 2016.

 

The bullpen has Jepson and Perkins. Looks good. Otherwise, unless May stays, there is NO ONE I would pencil in from the names that played in 2015. I would say open season and don't go out-of-you-way Terry to sign Boyer or Fien or Duensing or Cotts. All are welcome back at less pay than 2015...yes, even Fien. If no one took him off your hands in August, then think about his true value.

 

You can waive out all the other names: Darnell, Tonkin, O'ourke, Achter, Thompson. You can find replacements. YOU CAN FIND REPLACEMENTS. Hopefully you do better than just find replacements and spend some of that extra money you will have by NOT having Hunter and Pelfrey back for one-two legit middle-of-the-bullpen arms.

 

The only depth in the offense is Plouffe, who isn;t exactly a bargain for a team and teams will think the Twins do want to move him and offer low, until a third baseman goes down in spring training. Of course, will playing a position during a game hurt or help Miguel in his at bats.

 

You can entertain offers for Hicks, Dozier, Rosario and Escobar, who all have some worth. But you will go with unproven (Kepler, Polaco) or need to sign a short-term free agent if you move any of them.

 

I see the roster pretty set. No one knocking down the Twins door to get Plouffe. People waiting to see what the Twins do do with Arcia. Staying comfortable with the current rotation because we have just enough able bodies if someone goes down. The bullpen is the only place to upgrade and spend good money for solid relief. You can always bring back the Boyer, Fien or Duensing for a song, if they find no takers elsewhere.

 

[mikelink45]

No more FA long term contracts blocking the young players.  Bundle and trade for Catcher help, otherwise the future is now. 

[Brandon]

If Sano is in the field then DH is open for Hunter to get the lion's share whill getting some time in RF.

[jimbo92107]

Address pitching first if you want to win more games next season. Without looking for more rentals, the Twins right now have five guys that could close in on 200 innings apiece next year:

 

Santana, Gibson, Duffey, May, and Berrios. 

 

Yeah, Berrios, not Hughes. It's sad, but Phil Hughes lost the zip on his heater, and he's just not starter material without it. The good news is, if they limit his innings as a middle reliever/spot starter, Hughes may be able to dominate again, for short stretches. In a unique coincidence, the same appears to be true for Ricky Nolasco and Mike Pelfrey. None of them can be relied upon to go 200 innings anymore, but all of them could provide excellent service as middle relievers and spot starters. That includes Tommy Milone, too. 

 

A short walk through would look like this.

Santana goes 7, leaves a runner on in the 8th. Hughes steps in, stops the bleeding. Jepsen closes.

Gibson goes 6, gives up 2. Nolasco does 2 innings, Jepsen closes.

Duffey goes 7 shutout, Pelfrey pitches one, Jepsen.

May goes 8 giving up 2. Jepsen.

Berrios falters after 3, Milone takes over. Pelfrey for one. Jepsen.

 

The team could do that all season long, with spot starts for Hughes, and maybe one or two for Milone. Even Nolasco could get a spot start if he's feeling really good. Hughes's fastball might uptick a couple mph, making him dominant again. Might even try Hughes at closer; he's got a closer's mentality already. Nolasco can hurt his ankle again, or not. 

 

On top of that bunch, you have Perkins and Jepsen platooning as closer/setup, and bring up a couple fire ballers like Burdi and Meyer to try their hand. 

 

The Twins won more games this year, but their starting rotation was a mess of injuries and inconsistency, other than Gibson. If Tyler Duffey hadn't shocked us with his cosmic curve ball experience, the old W/L record would not have been relatively impressive. 

 

I know how things stand with this organization, so no need to tell me I'm being "unrealistic." The starting ro will be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, maybe Duffey, maybe May, and then MAYBE they bring up Berrios after he starts off AAA with seven shutouts. Milone, I have no idea. All I'm saying is that they're already paying these guys whether they start, relieve, or sweep up the stadium after the game. The money is already spent, so now you piece together a way to get more wins, not stroke expensive egos.

Edited October 8, 2015 by jimbo92107

[jun]

Mr jimbo92107, Trevor May usually exits earlier than other starters, what makes you think he could EVER go 8 innings? I really believe May has more value in the bullpen although he may never be Wade Davis. Hughes is a flyball pitcher, he gives up a lot of long balls. I don't think he has what it takes to be a closer.

[Brandon]

I don't like the idea of trading Plouffe at this point but the Angels could use a 3B. If they can put together a good enough package to aquire him.

[stringer bell]

I really liked what May did in the bullpen. Given the issues the club had there, I would vote for him to be the eighth inning guy next year. IMHO, it is unwise to try to sign Torii Hunter for another year. I would rather give Oswaldo Arcia a last shot, with Buxton and Kepler waiting in the wings. I think the timing is right to trade Plouffe. In the rotation, my opening day projection is Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, MIlone with Duffey waiting in the wings. Berrios starts in AAA.

 

The Twins had a lousy year hitting last year. I expect improvement even if there isn't much fresh blood in the lineup.

[launchingthrees]

"take away the 20-7 May, and the Twins would have finished with around 76 wins."

 

Ok. But why would you take a random 27 games out of the sample? What's the point? Seems try-hard and offers nothing analytical to the discussion. That's not the way data-analysis works in any field, at any level. Again, what's the point?

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

This part:

 

“If there is a catcher available that can help this club,” says Ryan, “we’ll look at it.”

 

This is an interesting sentence. Research shows that people that say will try, or think about, something, are less likely to succeed at that thing. Ryan talks that way a lot. Now, maybe that's just how he talks in public, and in private he's much more of a take control guy, but I don't know.

 

This isn't just fluff, the research is clear. There is a reason the scene with Yoda and Luke is so iconic.....it's true.

[dougkoebernick]

Help me out here a bit - why is Rosario expected to regress? If anything, I see him progressing as he figures out how to take a walk once in awhile. Thanks!