Article: WARNE: A Eulogy For The 2015 Minnesota Twins

[Brandon Warne]

Surprises are great. They crop up when you least expect them and can frequently be a harbinger of the days to come.

 

And if the 2015 season is any indicator, things are about to be a lot more fun in Twins Territory.

 

This season was dotted with debuts of players that fans have been awaiting for years. First Eddie Rosario, then Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, even Tyler Duffey and finally Max Kepler. Even without the highly-anticipated debut of Jose Berrios — no doubt not far down the road — the Twins assimilated a group of high-end prospects that by and large hit the ground running. Sano won’t win the Rookie of the Year award, but in the words of Trevor May he injected some life into a team at midseason that was desperately looking for some punch.Sano and Rosario helped lock down a batting order that saw Kurt Suzuki bat in the middle on 37 occasions. Rosario, along with an awakened Aaron Hicks, an improved Torii Hunter and Buxton helped transform the outfield defense from downright brutal to around league average, depending on what defensive stats you believe. That’ll improve as Hunter sees less time in the outfield next year. And I know what you’re saying; what if he doesn’t come back? Well, that would also qualify as less time in the outfield next year. There’s still room for the outfield defense to improve even more, and that’s huge for a team that has quite a few prominent fly ball pitchers, like Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Trevor May and Phil Hughes.

 

Hicks’ emergence all but solidified that he’ll be starting in center or right field come Opening Day 2016. He hit .259/.333/.432 in 291 post-July 3 plate appearances — after coming off the disabled list — and flashed the loud tools he possesses far more frequently than he did in his first two big league seasons. Rosario also showed loud tools but is perhaps a bit too exploitable outside of the strike zone to sustain his 2015 success. He won’t have a Danny Santana-like regression, but it’s also worth noting that he finished the season with a .289 on-base percentage; four points lower than Hunter and what would be the 10th-worst mark in baseball had he accumulated enough plate appearances to qualify. He fell 28 plate appearances short.

 

A disappointing development for the Twins in 2015 was the backsliding of Oswaldo Arcia, who put together 19 uninspiring games for the big club before getting injured and subsequently sent to Rochester once healthy. The time with the Red Wings was a catastrophe, as he hit just .199/.257/.372 with an 82-18 K/BB ratio. With the amount of outfield depth that has emerged as big league ready or close to it, Arcia is alarmingly close to being an organizational afterthought. The Twins have likely made up their mind on what’ll happen with him, but it wouldn’t be surprising if his future hinges on what Hunter decides. Arcia is out of options in 2016 and could in theory serve as the fourth outfielder with multiple center field options on the roster as is.

 

Another disappointing development with the 2015 Twins was the obvious regression of Santana, who clearly couldn’t replicate the .405 BABIP-fueled 2014 line he put together. Santana’s value completely bottomed out, as he hit just .215/.241/.291, with all three triple-slash marks at least 100 points off his 2014 values. At this point, his best shot to carve out a role is as a super utility guy. It’s as if someone was saying that a year ago or something, but I don’t recall for sure …

 

The 2015 season was the season of breakouts and improvements for the Twins, mostly. May and Kyle Gibson headlined rotation improvements, while Eduardo Escobar had a red-hot second half, and Hicks finally showed the Twins he was ready to handle a full-time role.

 

But for all the improvements, there were significant fallbacks for players which hampered the Twins’ efforts, especially in the second half. The Twins got literally nothing from Ervin Santana in the first half due to a suspension, while the second half saw virtually nothing from Ricky Nolasco and not a whole lot from Phil Hughes, who struggled with velocity and home runs throughout the season. Glen Perkins was perfect in save opportunities in the first half and headed to Cincinnati as an All Star; then did the following in the second stanza: 7.32 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and 1.068 OPS against. Kevin Jepsen, and to some extent May, filled in admirably down the stretch in the late innings, but the Twins need Perkins to be right going into 2016.

 

It’s also not positive that Joe Mauer’s first mention comes nearly 800 words into this piece. Mauer hit just .265/.338/.380 — considerably worse than the average AL first baseman — and at times struggled just as badly on defense as offense. With three years and $69 million left on his deal, the Twins are surely hoping he’s got a Justin Morneau-like resurgence in him. Unfortunately, the Twins aren’t moving to Coors Field anytime soon.

 

To strip the season down to nuts and bolts, the club was basically fantastic in May (20-7, .741 winning percentage) and meh otherwise (63-72, .467). That boils down to a 76-win pace over a full season, which is worth noting not because those wins in May can be taken away, but that it’s pretty close to how advanced statistics — such as BaseRuns, etc. — felt the Twins would and should have played this season. There’s plenty to be said for a plucky bunch proving the pundits wrong, but moving into the offseason the Twins’ brass should take the opportunity to make a few moves to better position the team into the future.

 

Bringing Hunter back at a reduced role and salary would be tolerable, but on both fronts would probably have to be considerable on both ends. Addressing the starting rotation is probably not much of a priority for the first time in nearly a half decade, as there are quite literally up to eight sensible options for next season’s rotation. The bullpen will experience considerable turnover no matter what happens, but most obvious long-term answers will come from within for this bunch. The team may look to add an arm or two, but it’ll probably be like they usually do, which is on the minor league side. It worked with Jared Burton, Casey Fien and countless others — even Blaine Boyer this year — so the club isn’t likely to break the mold there.

 

The one thing the club absolutely has to do is address the catching position. A veritable plethora of options will be at Terry Ryan’s fingers, whether he chooses to go the platoon route (A.J. Pierzynski and Brayan Pena make sense there) or if he wants to drop a ton of money (Matt Wieters) or resources (maybe San Francisco’s Andrew Susac?). But one thing is clear: the Twins need to supplement Suzuki, who was named to the Sporting News’ Anti-All Star Team for 2015. Between regressing significantly offensively and defensively — no starting catcher threw out a lower percentage of attempted base thieves — it became clear in 2015 that the Twins need to make an upgrade.

 

The one other thing that would make some sense is for the Twins to pursue a top-end talent. The Twins roster is made up almost exclusively of solid players at their respective positions, but bringing in a top-tier talent like Jason Heyward makes a lot of sense if the club is willing to spend the money. I can hear you scoffing, but if the Twins want to take the next step, it makes sense to drop money in the team while players like Buxton, Rosario and Sano are in the cheap portions of their contracts. I’d place the likelihood at less than one percent the Twins sign anyone to a huge deal, but I’m just suggesting that’s what I’d do.

 

The 2015 Twins season was a rousing success, but I think the brass needs to be proactive to keep from slipping backwards a bit in 2016. Will they do it? We have a long, cold winter ahead to find out.

 

Cold Omaha is now on 92KQRS and 93x, catch this content where it originated here.

 

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[Willihammer]

Heyward is very intriguing. A lot of value is tied up in his defense, maybe that lowers his price tag? Still should command a 9 figure deal easily.

[Vanimal46]

I would be on board with a Heyward signing as well. Only 26 years old with elite defense and very balanced approach at the plate. Not sure if the Twins can outbid the Yankees and Dodgers of the world to get him, but certainly would be a nice addition to this team.

[Brandon Warne]

It would not stun me to see Heyward get 10/$200. And yes, I would give him that.

[gunnarthor]

Heyward is interesting.  His on-base skills are pretty awesome (even though they probably fall a bit going from the NL to AL).  But he's going to get paid by someone based on defensive valuations and that team better hope they are measuring defense accurately. 

 

This article from the WSJ suggests they aren't.  "Inside-Edge, a baseball analytics company that provides data to major-league teams, brings a big-data approach to scouting. Instead of just using a spray chart to calculate a player’s defensive value, their scouts watch every single play from every single team—twice. And by taking positioning into account in grading the difficulty of plays, Inside-Edge scouts not only found that the range of many players was being overstated, but so too was the overall importance of defense in preventing runs.

The major revelation: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill."

 

We saw this play out a lot this year with the Hunter debate, since the defensive stats hated him.  Now the stats love Heyward.   If they are right, Heyward is a consistent 6+ WAR player.  If not, he's a 4 WAR player.  That's still a really good player but not a guy who is going to turn your team around.

[Willihammer]

Upton and Cespedes also hitting FA this winter.

 

edit: Span too

Edited October 6, 2015 by Willihammer

[Brandon Warne]

 

Upton and Cespedes also hitting FA this winter.

edit: Span too

 

Yep, just prefer Heyward. 

[Willihammer]

The major revelation: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill."

 

We saw this play out a lot this year with the Hunter debate, since the defensive stats hated him.

At the risk of derailing the thread, that was never in doubt. The reason that 14% remainder of plays are valued so highly by metrics is that they so often go for extra bases. Over a full season that's ~35 made or un-made plays separating the worst from the best fielders. 35 outfield hits equating to 3-4 wins seems perfectly plausible IMO.

 

I think a lot of fans let their preconceptions of outfield metrics color their judment of Hunter's defense.

 

We can agree Heyward is a very good outfielder. I highly doubt the market will pay him exactly 2.0 dWAR = 15.8M or whatever that value is on the open market. He will get paid mainly for his OBP and his age.

Edited October 6, 2015 by Willihammer

[Willihammer]

Heyward seems like a good candidate for an opt-out contract. Guarantee him 7-10 years but give him an opt-out after year 4 to get a 2nd pay day. That is a new element of risk but also seems like a strong chance to pay only for his best years.

[Dantes929]

Ok, Heyward would be a nice player to have.  Good defense and  good but not elite OBP skills (55th among those with 200 at bats or more).    Paying that much money and that long a contract in place of who?  Have we given up on Buxton already?   or is it Rosario, Kepler or Hicks that you all want gone.     If not Buxton then Hewards'd value diminishes if not playing centerfield.   I just don't see it.   If you are going to throw a ton of money at a free agent catcher makes most sense but the two youngest free agents played less than half the games in 2015.   Good and durable catchers seem very hard to come by.   People say just get a good catcher like they say we need a couple #1 pitchers.   Sure would like to have a couple but there just aren't even 30 such players that exist.    I like Suzuki and don't know how catchers fool umpires with framing but I could see that Kurt wasn't very good at it.     I often saw anti framing by him.  

[SF Twins Fan]

I guess I don't understand what signing Heyward would do for the Twins. He's a career .268 hitter who has only averaged 59 RBIs a season. Seems like a lot of money to be tied to very pedestrian offensive numbers. The Twins basically have 4 center fielders who all play great defense. With the Twins have Rosario, Buxton, Hicks and Kepler all pushing for playing time next season who do they get rid of?

[Don Walcott]

I agree with the last two posts about signing another outfielder and a catcher.  I think the Twins should focus instead on getting one great starter.  It's great to have 8 options for starting pitchers, but we could potentially get someone like David Price, Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke or Jordan Zimmerman.  Wouldn't this team look a lot better with a sure thing #1 starter?

[Thrylos]

 

I guess I don't understand what signing Heyward would do for the Twins. He's a career .268 hitter who has only averaged 59 RBIs a season. Seems like a lot of money to be tied to very pedestrian offensive numbers. The Twins basically have 4 center fielders who all play great defense. With the Twins have Rosario, Buxton, Hicks and Kepler all pushing for playing time next season who do they get rid of?

 

 

Hard to argue batting average and RBI, but Harmon KIllebrew was a career .256 hitter and Ozzie Smith averaged 42 RBI a season

 

This team is really really really hurting against RHPs.  To the tune of .242/.301/.393.  And most of the pitchers out there are righties.    Heyward has a career .285/.372/.467 slash line against righties.  Add a gold glove or too...

 

Re: Rosario:  Check his OBP.  Not sure if he is a starter yet.  But he would make a heck of a fourth outfielder

 

Re: Buxton:  Check his approach towards breaking stuff.  Will not be surprised if he starts at AAA

Re: Kepler:  He should start at AAA and he is not a Centerfielder by any means.  No matter that he played that position in the minors.  Gardenhire even started Parmelee at Center

 

 

Getting a true Ace (I like Zimmerman from that bunch, plus he is a cheesehead so MN might not be horror-inducing as a location)  and moving Hughes to closer (check his career - 2009 really - numbers as a reliever when setting up Rivera here - 2.11 ERA, 0.995 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 3.94 K/BB; better than Perkins ever did and that's before Hughes' prime) would do wonders to this team, esp. if Alex Meyer shows up at 2016 Spring Training with a chip his size on his shoulder

They do need a catcher, but unless they go for a young catcher, getting someone like Brayan Pena (FA) to start against RHPs (.295/.347/.353 in 2015) and have Suzuki (because nobody will take him off your hands) or Pinto starting against LHPs might do the trick. 

 

[Platoon]

Without being critical to this post at all, I am always surprised by how reactive we are to immediate, current, and somewhat short term performances. We celebrate Hicks finally getting it, after having determined as recently as this spring that he is basically a failure. Now we, and again, I am not referring specifically to this poster, have determined that Santana and Arcia have little chance of succeeding. There are like rumblings about the offense of Buxton after approx 120 AB's. Which is 5% of the 2500 AB's many consider to be the demarcation line for evaluating a potential career. It took KC severl years for their young talent to mature into what it is today. They took their lumps, stuck with them, and have been rewarded. This is not going to happen overnight, or likely next year. As for the current SP, having 8 #3&4 starters is not the definition of depth I would consider a recipe for success!

[Thrylos]

 

 There are like rumblings about the offense of Buxton after approx 120 AB's. Which is 5% of the 2500 AB's many consider to be the demarcation line for evaluating a potential career.

 

Would you give 2500 ABs to Butera year after year?  Why give them to Buxton if he is hitting like Butera?

 

Buxton has had a career 1227 ABs.  And still cannot hit the curveball.  Nobody said that he will never do, but he should try to learn to do so in AAA and AA and not in the majors.  He is not ready.  Might be one day or might not.  But not ready now, so he should be in the minors until ready.

[Platoon]

I don't remember Butera dominating at several levels below the majors, I don't think he was a #1 pick, and it takes about 4 years to accumulate 2500AB's. Trout wasn't Trout at the 120 AB level either. Patience, patience patience!

[gunnarthor]

 

At the risk of derailing the thread, that was never in doubt. The reason that 14% remainder of plays are valued so highly by metrics is that they so often go for extra bases. Over a full season that's ~35 made or un-made plays separating the worst from the best fielders. 35 outfield hits equating to 3-4 wins seems perfectly plausible IMO.

I think a lot of fans let their preconceptions of outfield metrics color their judment of Hunter's defense.

 

We can agree Heyward is a very good outfielder. I highly doubt the market will pay him exactly 2.0 dWAR = 15.8M or whatever that value is on the open market. He will get paid mainly for his OBP and his age.

I do think some team will pay him more based on defense than other teams will.  I'd love to have him (and I think defensive stats aren't good - which isn't the same as saying defense isn't important).  But how you view stats is really going to affect how you view Heyward. 

[shimrod]

It's sad that with the money we have committed to Mauer our consensus biggest hole is catcher.

[Rosterman]

We need a catcher upgrade.

 

We need dependable backlup at first base if Mauer goes down.

 

We need to have someone at third if Sano can't play tehre, especially if Plouffe is traded.

 

We have a bunch of guys in the minors who can fill bench roles in the outfield and DH - Vargas, Arcia, :Pinto, Kepler come to mind. A couple could be Mauer replacements if needed. 

 

Who do we have as abckup in the infield? Resign Nunez? Santana and maybe Polanco. 

 

Do we sign a big bopper? Someone who could play the outfield and third base, betetr than Plouffe and for less or more? Plouffe will be around $7-8 million this year. Unfortunately in 2017, his value increases to $11-12. Not sure the Twins feel he is worth that much in 2017 (or any other team in baseball). But Plouffe will probably wait until his free agent year to gamble for a bigger contract than the $30 million the Twins MIGHT offer him for three years, but would the Twins offer that?

 

The offense is pretty well set. It is jsut who plays if someone goes down, with the big question being if Sano can play third. Mauer NEEDS to produce. But he will not be going anywheres and chances are he will even get an extension at some point to remain a Twin for life.

 

Do we find a DH/third baseman> Can they repalce Hunter and/or Plouffe? Is it someone for short-term or longterm? Do we find an aging vet who can also play x-positions in a pinch but is a Thome-like bat off the bench (not named Hunter or Morneau).

 

Armchair GM's will have fun as liss are released of free agents, arbitration no-goes, minor castoffs and the ilk!

[USAFChief]

At the risk of derailing the thread, that was never in doubt. The reason that 14% remainder of plays are valued so highly by metrics is that they so often go for extra bases. Over a full season that's ~35 made or un-made plays separating the worst from the best fielders. 35 outfield hits equating to 3-4 wins seems perfectly plausible IMO.

I think a lot of fans let their preconceptions of outfield metrics color their judment of Hunter's defense.

 

We can agree Heyward is a very good outfielder. I highly doubt the market will pay him exactly 2.0 dWAR = 15.8M or whatever that value is on the open market. He will get paid mainly for his OBP and his age.

Your math assumes that outfielder A makes 100% of those 35 balls into outs, and outfielder B makes zero.

 

That seems very unlikely to me. So now you're down to some unknowable portion of those 35 balls. Some of those are singles. Some of the few that are left will be for extra bases, but won't end up costing actual runs.

 

In the end, a 3-4 win difference based on one corner OFers defense compared to another isn't very plausible.

 

I do agree that no team us going to pay him $16m for his defense...because they all likely don't believe it's worth that much.

[Willihammer]

 

Your math assumes that outfielder A makes 100% of those 35 balls into outs, and outfielder B makes zero.

That seems very unlikely to me. So now you're down to some unknowable portion of those 35 balls. Some of those are singles. Some of the few that are left will be for extra bases, but won't end up costing actual runs.

In the end, a 3-4 win difference based on one corner OFers defense compared to another isn't very plausible.

I do agree that no team us going to pay him $16m for his defense...because they all likely don't believe it's worth that much.

Fair enough. I also assumed 100% outs on the 62% figure and 100% hits on the 24% figure which is not going to be the case either.

 

Out of curiosity what do you think is a reasonable spread for total number of balls missed/caught between the worst corner outfielder and the best corner outfielder over ~1300 innings? Assume, for sake of expediency, both fielders see an average distribution of batted balls.

[USAFChief]

Fair enough. I also assumed 100% outs on the 62% figure and 100% hits on the 24% figure which is not going to be the case either.

 

Out of curiosity what do you think is a reasonable spread for total number of balls missed/caught between the worst corner outfielder and the best corner outfielder over ~1300 innings? Assume, for sake of expediency, both fielders see an average distribution of batted balls.

Dunno. Between the best and the worst? If forced to guess, I'd say maybe 15? One every 10 games? And those 15 catches add up to 10 runs?

 

But that's a complete guess. Maybe I'm way off, and there really is a 30 run difference. But my gut tells me that's too far fetched to be very likely. As the study said, most balls really aren't in question, which has always been one of my issues with metrics...they often don't pass my smell test.

 

What's your guess?

[Willihammer]

 

Dunno. Between the best and the worst? If forced to guess, I'd say maybe 15? One every 10 games? And those 15 catches add up to 10 runs?

But that's a complete guess. Maybe I'm way off, and there really is a 30 run difference. But my gut tells me that's too far fetched to be very likely. As the study said, most balls really aren't in question, which has always been one of my issues with metrics...they often don't pass my smell test.

What's your guess?

IMO one every 3-4 games seems reasonable. So 40-50 I would guess.

I guess we have different noses.

Edited October 7, 2015 by Willihammer

[TheLeviathan]

10/200 for Jason Heyward?

 

Good god no, he's the poster child for how WAR can overinflate value. He just hasn't been good enough or consistent enough at the plate to deserve that. Let some other team make that mistake.

Edited October 7, 2015 by TheLeviathan

[ashbury]

The major revelation: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill."

The article is behind a paywall so I haven't read it. Is the above a direct quote from it? If so, I have to suspect the writer has misunderstood something about this research.

 

It may be true that 24% are likely hits and 62% are likely outs, leaving 14% as essentially go-get'em balls. But not all the 62% of outs are cans of corn, and when there are runners on base there will be significant opportunities for fielders to distinguish themselves.

 

Likewise not all the 24% hits are Texas Leaguers where the outfielder retrieves the ball and underhands it to a middle infielder - if the ball is hit a long way, there is scope for a Ben Revere to do less with it than someone with a major league arm, for example.

 

Cans of corn, with nobody on base? Routine singles, and even certain kinds of doubles, with nobody on base? Deep fly with a man on third, so that even God himself couldn't save the run? Home runs? Sure, they happen a lot. It does represent a reduction to the value of seemingly non-SSS quantities of fielding chances. The problem with assessing defense is indeed the radically fewer true chances, compared with the thousands of pitches that a batter sees each season.

 

But simply tallying the initial touch of a ball in play, which is what these raw percentages imply to me, leaves an awful lot of defensive skill un-assessed. I hope the researchers didn't fall into that easy trap.

[weiss4twins28]

Demand span is a guy I miss seeing in a Minnesota uni! Still a legitimate 280-300 hitter(when healthy of course) and affordable too. Guys like upton, heyward, and cespedes, will be out of our price range. Like to see a 2 year deal with span. Also would not mind trading pinto, Arica, or Santana for catching or middle infield help, possibly relief depth also. Derek Norris is available along with starlin castro in offseason trading. Leaning towards signing a veteran reliever that will put up good numbers also.

[KidBro]

A quick take on the difference between best and worst OF.  I think 10 runs seems incredibly low over the course of the season (but I really have no idea).  There is a big unknown in the cause and effect between the two.  Take into factor, a 2 out gapper that the best OF tracks down.  Out of the inning.  The worst OF does not track down, even if no runners on and no runs scored, the rest of this inning is unknown, next guy up hits a 2 Run HR. Or our SP throws an extra 20 pitches in the inning, and need to go to bullpen at the start of a 10 day road trip w/ 0 off days.  How many runs/W/L does that lead to.  

 

[Brandon Warne]

 

Hard to argue batting average and RBI, but Harmon KIllebrew was a career .256 hitter and Ozzie Smith averaged 42 RBI a season

 

This team is really really really hurting against RHPs.  To the tune of .242/.301/.393.  And most of the pitchers out there are righties.    Heyward has a career .285/.372/.467 slash line against righties.  Add a gold glove or too...

 

Re: Rosario:  Check his OBP.  Not sure if he is a starter yet.  But he would make a heck of a fourth outfielder

 

Re: Buxton:  Check his approach towards breaking stuff.  Will not be surprised if he starts at AAA

Re: Kepler:  He should start at AAA and he is not a Centerfielder by any means.  No matter that he played that position in the minors.  Gardenhire even started Parmelee at Center

 

 

Getting a true Ace (I like Zimmerman from that bunch, plus he is a cheesehead so MN might not be horror-inducing as a location)  and moving Hughes to closer (check his career - 2009 really - numbers as a reliever when setting up Rivera here - 2.11 ERA, 0.995 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 3.94 K/BB; better than Perkins ever did and that's before Hughes' prime) would do wonders to this team, esp. if Alex Meyer shows up at 2016 Spring Training with a chip his size on his shoulder

They do need a catcher, but unless they go for a young catcher, getting someone like Brayan Pena (FA) to start against RHPs (.295/.347/.353 in 2015) and have Suzuki (because nobody will take him off your hands) or Pinto starting against LHPs might do the trick. 

 

Zimmermann is scary as hell. Bottom 1/3 in swinging strike percent this year. 

[Dantes929]

 

Your math assumes that outfielder A makes 100% of those 35 balls into outs, and outfielder B makes zero.

That seems very unlikely to me. So now you're down to some unknowable portion of those 35 balls. Some of those are singles. Some of the few that are left will be for extra bases, but won't end up costing actual runs.

In the end, a 3-4 win difference based on one corner OFers defense compared to another isn't very plausible.

I do agree that no team us going to pay him $16m for his defense...because they all likely don't believe it's worth that much.

We are talking the difference between Rosario and Delmon Young or Hicks and Willingham here.   I think it is quite reasonable that we are talking at least 30 fly balls here and while yes, some are singles but they are also singles that could have been outs.  How many times is there two outs and guys on 1st and 2nd and a bloop single scores one and then the next guy hits a three run homer?  Many varieties on this scenario but the point is that if the ball were caught in the first place there would have been no damage.   I really don't know how to quantify it either but Rosario's range and 16 outfield assists that he turned into outs vs Delmon Young turn average plays into extra outs for the other team as well as bases makes me think it is worth a lot of runs over the course of a season.

[jmlease1]

I have to say I'm not terribly worried about the rotation next season unless pitchers get jobs based on scholarship (Nolasco!). Santana got the job done (solid July, erratic Aug, excellent Sept) once he was back from suspension, Gibson had a nice, solid season and should have a job locked up, Hughes regressed but still will be a quality pitcher. The next two up should be Duffey and May based on performance.

 

Berrios is a guy I'm looking forward to seeing, but I'm not handing him a spot. He'll get his chance when someone inevitably gets hurt. Nolasco I'd move to the 'pen. Maybe he could stay healthy there with a reduced innings workload and then we don't have to worry about whether he can get out of the 5th inning. Milone is just another guy: decent, but limited upside. But the options are there in the rotation: we can move on from Pelfrey and should have a solid rotation that can give the team a chance to win every night.

 

The bullpen needs a little work: there weren't enough reliable arms this season, but guess what? easiest thing to turn around fast is a bullpen.

 

Here's the lineup concerns: regression and catcher. Is Rosario going to improve or regress? (he really could go either way. the OPB was terrible and he needs to control the strike zone better. his BABIP was well above average (.332), which could pull his BA down if that falls off. but he's also got the tools to improve his OBP and the speed to keep the BABIP high) Will Sano take the next step and cut down the K's or is he going to be a late-career Adam Dunn for a while as he figures it out? Does Hicks keep improving or does he take a step back (again)? Catcher's a black hole right now: Suzuki isn't getting it done on offense or defense (admittedly, Kurt had some very bad luck this season, but it pushed him back towards career norms) Will Mauer return to form? at least a little? It's possible...there's so much we don't know about concussions. But it's also possible that he's lost just enough bat speed that this is who he is now: average and overpaid.