Article: Behind Byron Buxton's Struggles

[Parker Hageman]

Byron Buxton’s introduction to the game’s highest level has been tumultuous at best. There is no denying that he has been over-matched at the plate – and it was not entirely unexpected.

 

When he was called to Minnesota, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal spoke with Doug Mienkiewicz, his manager at Chattanooga. “I don’t think he’s completely ready,” Mientkiewicz told Rosenthal. “Well, part of me says yes, and part of me says no.” Echoing Mientkiewicz’s thoughts, Baseball America cited two scouts who stated that they felt his approach at the plate was not an advanced one and that pitchers would challenge him early.

 

This is almost exactly what has happened.While Twins fans have been blessed with being able to watch Miguel Sano and his advanced approach posting equal parts power and patience at the plate, they have also seen pitchers confound Buxton with an assortment of breaking balls. What we have seen out of Buxton is that he has done well in the situation in which he is ahead in the count. The problem, however, is that Buxton has rarely found himself ahead in the count this year.

 

Download attachment: Buxton.png

Buxton’s approach has been what most evaluators would consider raw. The road map to retiring Buxton is pretty clear cut -- get strike one then breaking ball, breaking ball, breaking ball (if needed).

 

As a leadoff hitter in the minors, Buxton demonstrated patience, attempting to work the count to get his pitch. However, implementing the same approach at the major league level has led to being behind in the count quickly where opponents then dispatch an array of breaking balls with pin-point precision.

 

It all starts with the ever important first pitch. With exception of Joe Mauer (11% swing rate) and Kurt Suzuki (20%) nobody on the roster has swung at fewer first pitch offerings than Buxton (23%). Unlike Mauer, who teams know can hit and therefore deliver fewer in-zone pitches, Buxton sees a ton of pitches in the strike zone. In fact, opponents have thrown in the strike zone on the first pitch 63% of the time -- the highest rate among the Twins’ hitters. (To be fair, Buxton sees a lot more than just fastballs down the pipe -- he also gets a hefty share of get-me-over breaking balls that most hitters do not.) If he attacks occasionally on a first pitch fastball, he might see fewer in-zone pitches, leading to a favorable count.

 

Because Buxton has not given pitchers any reason not to fire a strike, they can very easily advance the count to 0-1. And that's when the pitchers put away their fastballs. While the average hitter gets a fastball 46% of the time in pitcher's counts, Buxton sees 43% fastballs. That’s less heat than even Miguel Sano sees (48%).

 

Buxton is self-aware about his breaking ball issue. Back in 2013, he told Fangraphs.com’s Carson Cistulli that getting his first taste of professional grade benders was an eye-opener. “In the past I had trouble [with them],” Buxton said. “Like, Gulf Coast League and Rookie Ball. It was hard for me to adjust to breaking pitches coming out of high school.”

 

Buxton eventually grew more comfortable with the pitches -- driving them the other way as he said -- but the leap from Double-A to the Majors introduced him to weapons-grade breaking balls. “I’m not used to seeing such sharp break as much as I did in Chattanooga,” he told reporters prior to his Target Field debut.

 

As Buxton told Cistulli in 2013, his favorite pitch is a fastball or hanging curveball middle or middle-away so you can understand why the breaking balls look particularly appetizing because that is where they appear to be heading before they dart quickly out of the zone.

 

Download attachment: Buxton_Curves.png

It is a learning process for Buxton and being able to lay off that pitch will do wonders for his development. Beyond laying off of breaking balls, Buxton also needs to get more aggressive in certain situations.

 

Although Buxton has hit the ball well when he works himself into a hitter’s count, he has been one of the more passive hitters in that circumstance. Under conditions in which he is seeing a high percentage of fastballs, Buxton has pulled the trigger less often than everyone other than Joe Mauer.

 

Being more aggressive can pay dividends. In Boston, Mookie Betts figured out that he could not afford to be as passive as he had been in his rookie season. “(Major league) pitchers are just around the zone more. I feel like you have to swing a little more. You can’t go up there taking,” Betts told reporters this spring. “I kind of learned last year that you can’t go up there taking. You’ve got to be ready to swing it. That’s how (Derek) Jeter got 3,000 hits. He wasn’t up there taking.”

 

Internally, the Twins had tried to get outfielder Aaron Hicks to unleash more on pitches in the zone. "Walks are great; getting on base is good," Terry Ryan told reporters back in 2013. "But if he has a chance to drive in a run, and he gets a pitch he can handle, let's go. That's all."

 

This season, Hicks has grown increasingly aggressive in hitters counts, swinging at 46% of the pitches versus just 41% in his first two seasons. The results have been his best offensive season since reach the big leagues. Like Hicks, Buxton is also making the jump from Double-A where the same approach at the plate just won’t cut it.

 

Each player's development happens at his own pace. Just because two players both excel at one level, does not mean they will have equal success (or failure) at the major league level. That being said, over the recent road trip Buxton showed some signs that he is progressing. In Detroit and Cleveland, Buxton attacked pitches in the zone more, leading to a pair of home runs and a double.

 

There is plenty of promise. The focus now for Buxton is making sustained adjustments in his approach to ensure that he reaches his vaunted potential.

 

Click here to view the article

[gunnarthor]

Nice write up.  It's far too early to worry about Buxton.  Considering where he started this year, essentially having lost a whole year last year, he's fine.  

 

Interestingly, I remember that Ryan quote.  TD damn near blew up about how Ryan didn't understand baseball.  

[Parker Hageman]

It's far too early to worry about Buxton.  Considering where he started this year, essentially having lost a whole year last year, he's fine

 

 

Yes, to be clear, this is simply a post on what is happening. A lot of players go through this development process. 

 

[jimbo92107]

Ultimately it comes down to feeling like you can hit whatever a pitcher throws anywhere near the plate. Right now Byron Buxton whiffs way too much. I don't see any way around that problem other than many more thousands of reps in the cage, honing his pitch recognition, timing and mechanics.

 

In games, the very first thing I'd do is work him on mashing first-pitch fastballs. Make it a little harder for pitchers to assume he's just going to stand there and watch the first heater go by. Thing is, Buxton still has to get better at barreling up the heaters in a wider zone, not just right down the middle. Pitchers have to fear throwing a first-pitch heater, or they'll just keep doing it because it's the easiest pitch to command. If Buxton can lay off the spinning stuff on that first pitch, it puts pressure on the pitcher to command a more difficult pitch on the first offering, which starts to get him more favorable counts. Of course, then Buxton has to be better at hitting off-speed stuff, so... Back to the batting cage.

Edited October 2, 2015 by jimbo92107

[ashbury]

I don't see any way around that problem other than many more thousands of reps in the cage, honing his pitch recognition...

Not having played more than slow-pitch myself, I have never understood how batters learn very much from swinging at meatball pitches tossed by fat-bellied old men. (Or even by some of the spry old coots that haunt the cages area.)

 

No, Buxton needs to stand there swinging the bat for 30 minutes while Tyler Duffey throws him yakker after yakker, alternated with hittable fastballs of course. Then bring in Perkins as a reliever, to work on recognizing those sliders for 10 minutes (Perk's not stretched out, dontcha know). Repeat every day. But you never hear about that happening, do you?

 

Of course you can't waste major league arms this way. (Hm, Nolasco as BP pitcher, surely this is an original thought.) So how DO you hone your batting skills in a cage, when almost by definition you're not seeing the pitches you'll see in the games?

 

Thanks for taking my call. I'll hang up and listen.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not if BP is actually meant to do much more than get stroke/swing down.  I remember a few years ago a story about Delmon Young standing in against some of the Twins pitchers during their bullpen sessions with a bat but not swinging to get better plate discipline.  I don't think we saw any improvement that year from Young. 

[clutterheart]

This Headline is a bit misleading.  

[nytwinsfan]

Seems that not swinging at meatball strikes on the first pitch being Buxton's problem is pretty obvious, even before your confirming stats Parker. Surprised Bruno, et al. haven't gotten him to swing more on first pitches as the season has gone on.

[nytwinsfan]

 

This Headline is a bit misleading.  

How so?

[HitInAPinch]

IMHO:  Batting practice is all about eye - hand coordination.

[Parker Hageman]

Not having played more than slow-pitch myself, I have never understood how batters learn very much from swinging at meatball pitches tossed by fat-bellied old men. (Or even by some of the spry old coots that haunt the cages area.)

 

 

Cage work isn't just about swinging at meatballs. There is a process in what they are trying to implement and work out. It's reps but the right kind of reps. There are drills that hitting coaches can use to work specifically on hitting the breaking ball better but, as Dozier points out, it's not about hitting the breaking ball -- it's about hitting the fastball so you are not forced to swing at the breaking ball. 

 

I agree too that it will also be pitch recognition. You really can't recreate pro grade curves and sliders. Seeing more and more MLB curves will definitely help. 

[TNLooky2015]

Not trying to make this an ABW thread, but ABW is another prospect in Chattanooga who looks at alot of first pitch strikes and generally falls behind in counts.  I think it is less about him being a free hitter as it is about him taking pitches and falling behind in the count.  He without a doubt saw less fastballs than anyone in the Southern League last year.  That was mainly because they didn't need to throw fastballs after they got ahead in the count.  

 

My point is like Mookie stated:  Should players swing MORE and look to do damage early in counts or work starting pitchers to get their pitch counts up high early.  IMO guys with more swing and miss probabilities should be more aggressive at the plate and guys who are Rosario type great contact hitters can afford to be more patient.  Buxton like ABW need to be more aggressive early like Betts, because when they do make contact - they can do great damage.  Like Dozier said - Hit the fastball early and you don't have to worry about the off speed as much later.  Either way - There are BB guys who can work counts and there are guys who need to jump on anything they can get [iN the ZONE]  early.    Hell what's the difference between working with 2 strikes because you watched a first pitch strike and working with a strike because you tried to do damage on that first swing.  Either way you have to have a 1 strike and 2 strike approach in the end.  IMO

[Mike Sixel]

Not worried yet......but there are scouts that question his hit tool (and no, I don't have links, I don't remember where I read everything I've ever read).

 

What is the thinking that "I will let this hittable pitch go by" on the first pitch, for a guy like Buxton? I don't get that thinking.

[by jiminy]

 

I'm not if BP is actually meant to do much more than get stroke/swing down.  I remember a few years ago a story about Delmon Young standing in against some of the Twins pitchers during their bullpen sessions with a bat but not swinging to get better plate discipline.  I don't think we saw any improvement that year from Young. 

 

That's funny, that's exactly what I was going to suggest -- or at least wonder about, I'm not in the business and wouldn't know. But when I learned to drive, my brother made me pull away from the curve, then pull back and stop the car. I then had to tell him EXACTLY how far my tires were from the curb -- and then get out and look.  Over and over.  It was brilliant.  There is no better way to get a sense of space and distance than to guess, and check.

 

So my uneducated thought was, he should stand in while a pitcher throws whatever he wants. He has to, 1) predict where the ball is going to end up when it leaves his hand, 2) show EXACTLY where it passed the plate after it does so, and 3) have a coach show him where it really went.  Over and over.  Why not?  If the problem is not knowing how far a ball is going to break, or not being able to gauge exactly where it actually ends up, work on that.  The more times you say, it went right here, the better your eye will get, right?

 

Oh, and Delmon Young not mastering something has no bearing on how anyone else will do.  I give him credit for trying, if he did this, but it surprises me. He never struck me as the learning type or the listening type.  This is just going from what I read, but I thought he was notorious for refusing to listen to coaches.  Perhaps everything I read was wrong, and he was a student of the game, but the impression I got from the presss was he was pigheaded and refused to adjust.  But whatever -- he's just one guy.

Edited October 2, 2015 by by jiminy

[Parker Hageman]

I remember a few years ago a story about Delmon Young standing in against some of the Twins pitchers during their bullpen sessions with a bat but not swinging to get better plate discipline.  I don't think we saw any improvement that year from Young

 

 

Pete Rose would do the same thing. I guess it is not for everybody.

 

[Turd Furgeson]

 

Not worried yet......but there are scouts that question his hit tool (and no, I don't have links, I don't remember where I read everything I've ever read).

What is the thinking that "I will let this hittable pitch go by" on the first pitch, for a guy like Buxton? I don't get that thinking.

 

I've seen Buxton's hit tool praised plenty of times. When Buxton was first drafted I remember John Sickels being a bit wary about his hit tool but those concerns soon vanished in 2013. I'm not sure its the hit tool more so than the pitch recognition and approach. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Yes, to be clear, this is simply a post on what is happening. A lot of players go through this development process. 

 

Most I'd say. Even if they come hard out of the gate... MLB pitching eventually figures it out. Very Few players hit on day one and keep hitting. 

 

That's why I'm not worried about Buxton or Vargas for that matter.

 

It's also why I worry about Rosario and Sano because that stretch hasn't happened to them yet. 

[jimbo92107]

 

Not having played more than slow-pitch myself, I have never understood how batters learn very much from swinging at meatball pitches tossed by fat-bellied old men. (Or even by some of the spry old coots that haunt the cages area.)

 

No, Buxton needs to stand there swinging the bat for 30 minutes while Tyler Duffey throws him yakker after yakker, alternated with hittable fastballs of course. Then bring in Perkins as a reliever, to work on recognizing those sliders for 10 minutes (Perk's not stretched out, dontcha know). Repeat every day. But you never hear about that happening, do you?

 

Of course you can't waste major league arms this way. (Hm, Nolasco as BP pitcher, surely this is an original thought.) So how DO you hone your batting skills in a cage, when almost by definition you're not seeing the pitches you'll see in the games?

 

Thanks for taking my call. I'll hang up and listen.

If you were going to get really creative, you could have hard-throwing guys from all over the Twins minor league system work on throwing low fastballs to Buxton. Good practice for everybody. Then see if Buxton can check his swing on selected pitches, to work on recognition. The fact that some hitters can do this indicates that there are cues to look for in every pitcher's delivery that tip off the pitch before it's too late to check. You're not going to see much hotter heat than Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, Alex Meyer, etc. Twins have several serious flame throwers that could feed fastballs all day to Buxton. Byron could even tell them when they're tipping their pitches. Both sides get sharper.

 

Unfortunately, that's not how these teams appear to operate.

[jokin]

 

Not having played more than slow-pitch myself, I have never understood how batters learn very much from swinging at meatball pitches tossed by fat-bellied old men. (Or even by some of the spry old coots that haunt the cages area.)

 

No, Buxton needs to stand there swinging the bat for 30 minutes while Tyler Duffey throws him yakker after yakker, alternated with hittable fastballs of course. Then bring in Perkins as a reliever, to work on recognizing those sliders for 10 minutes (Perk's not stretched out, dontcha know). Repeat every day. But you never hear about that happening, do you?

 

Of course you can't waste major league arms this way. (Hm, Nolasco as BP pitcher, surely this is an original thought.) So how DO you hone your batting skills in a cage, when almost by definition you're not seeing the pitches you'll see in the games?

 

Thanks for taking my call. I'll hang up and listen.

 

Well, certainly another half year at Rochester isn't going to solve Buxton's developmental dilemma.

[Linus]

Well, certainly another half year at Rochester isn't going to solve Buxton's developmental dilemma.

Huh? Actually probably the best thing for his development. He's 21, let's give the kid a chance to breathe.

[jokin]

 

Huh? Actually probably the best thing for his development. He's 21, let's give the kid a chance to breathe.

 

Absolutely not.   His oxygen intake is just fine- his CF defense will soon be elite level, speed-wise, he's as good as it gets in baseball on the basepaths. As Parker noted, based on the last road trip, all of Buck's hard work in the cage and video-room this month with Bruno has just started to bear fruit 

I'm with Roy Smalley on this issue, wasting another half year in Rochester might be the worst thing for delaying his development. His major issue right now is his need to recognize major league pitches and pitching patterns, not junk stuff thrown mostly by AAAA journeyman.The sooner he learns how to start avoiding all of those 0-2 counts against major league pitchers, the sooner he's on the way to stardom.

I get that the Twins might hold him back starting out in 2016, but only for financial reasons.   He should be up and starting in CF as soon as the service time issues are resolved to the Twins satisfaction. I would hate to see them needlessly waste a roster spot for an extra veteran OFer they don't really need, and lose a prospect in the process.  (Perhaps keeping Buxton in AAA just for a few weeks to start out the season will give Arcia one last chance to turn things around.)

Edited October 3, 2015 by jokin

[Linus]

Ok I guess we will find out next year.

[dxpavelka]

After extensive research I've learned that he's only 21 years old AND that MANY much ballyhooed prospects don't become dominant major league baseball players at the age of 21.

 

[spinowner]

 

After extensive research I've learned that he's only 21 years old AND that MANY much ballyhooed prospects don't become dominant major league baseball players at the age of 21.

And with last year's lost season he's more like 20 in baseball years. And, as Torii would say, he doesn't have his man-muscles yet.

[Rosterman]

Adjusting to major league piching is difficult. Especially to excel. Somehow, Sano is swinging and hitting the right pitches MOST of the time, but he is also striking out a lot. Patience is the key for any youngster. At some point, the hitter forces the pitcher to be careful on that first pitch and NOT throw an automatic strike. That's the game of baseball, is it going to be a ball or a strike. Period. Then you start worrying about lcoation, and a batter needs to constantly adjust their own game plan according to a pitcher's strengths (inside/outside, high/low, breaking pitches, curveballs, etc.).

 

It will be interesting to see the work guys do during the iwinter (Sano, Buxton, Rosario) and what returns we get out of spring training (Arcia, Vargas, Pinto, Santana...will they rebound). That's seven solid playrs who ALL have a chance to start in the major leagues, pretty much just leaving a space for Mauer and Dozier in the lineup, assuming Pinto culd catch.

 

We saw some consistent work from Sano and Rosario this season, and Hicks has improved a bit, but on thee whole, beyond the smashing of Sano and the triples of Rosario, we only saw some glimpses of players exceling. We need a couple to become stars, maybe even a superstar. And Mauer to return to his status as an elite hitter. And Dozier to have an equally good second half.

 

Then...the pitching.....

 

[kab21]

He has plenty to learn at AAA.  One big reason that he has struggled so much is that he only has 300 AA/AAA AB's.  He hasn't even seen AAAA junkballers and adjusted to them yet.

[Linus]

He's not ready to hit major league pitching. That's fine - he's 21 and just needs some time. He's gonna be great but most likely when he's 23 or later.

[weiss4twins28]

A hard working offseason and spring training should do some good. But if that doesn't work wouldn't be suprised to see a short stint with the Red Wings

[Parker Hageman]

I don't know what this says about where they figure Buxton will start to begin next season but it makes you wonder if they will give him more time at AAA. 

 

[USAFChief]

I would be surprised if Buxton DOESN'T start 2016 in AAA.