Syria conflict

[Willihammer]

 

I don't know if most Westerners really understand how Russians view things at all. These aren't choices for them, they are necessary moves to ensure their long term security.

 

How would Americans view it's government if they ceded to Russia's actions in Ukraine or simply allowed them to do whatever they chose in Syria without any objection or interference? I think it would be viewed with a certain sense of insecurity that a growing Russian presence could potentially be a threat.

 

Russia is not going to capitulate, it goes against everything they are trying to accomplish.

After the first day of sanctions, the ruble lost 20% of its value. The Russian central bank had to jack up interest rates as the ECB, BOC and BOJ started easing. Its economy is contracting as Putin is expanding Russia's reach. At some point, if external forces don't compel him, internal ones will. Putin needs a reality check, its not 1964 anymore.

[twinsnorth49]

After the first day of sanctions, the ruble lost 20% of its value. The Russian central bank had to jack up interest rates as the ECB, BOC and BOJ started easing. Its economy is contracting as Putin is expanding Russia's reach. At some point, if external forces don't compel him, internal ones will. Putin needs a reality check, its not 1964 anymore.

You underestimate Putin's influence on the people, as well as how they view their country compared to how it used to be. Russians don't blame Putin for the economic trouble in the country, they blame the West, specifically the US. There is a growing sentiment in Russia to restore it to the days of the Soviet Union, however misguided that might be. Perception is everything.

 

Sanctions didn't work in the past and they won't work now. Besides, the price of oil has more to do with the instability of the Russian economy anyway.

[drjim]

You underestimate Putin's influence on the people, as well as how they view their country compared to how it used to be. Russians don't blame Putin for the economic trouble in the country, they blame the West, specifically the US. There is a growing sentiment in Russia to restore it to the days of the Soviet Union, however misguided that might be. Perception is everything.

 

Sanctions didn't work in the past and they won't work now. Besides, the price of oil has more to do with the instability of the Russian economy anyway.

Perhaps you overestimate Putin's influence.

 

There might be some wounded national pride that needs to be addressed, but at the end of the day the people just want to eat and have some stuff. Eventually that gets back to the leader.

[Mike Sixel]

Seems to me, that the US only gets involved in the middle east for the same reason you are saying Putin is......

 

Look, I trust Putin as far as I can throw the entire nation of Russia, but if they fight ISIS/ISIL for us, I am good with that. It's not like we are winning a lot of friends in most of those countries anyway (no matter who the president is). If Russia wants to spend its resources, and make radicals mad at them, I am ok with that.

[twinsnorth49]

 

Perhaps you overestimate Putin's influence.

There might be some wounded national pride that needs to be addressed, but at the end of the day the people just want to eat and have some stuff. Eventually that gets back to the leader.

Like in Cuba? North Korea? Iran? South Africa?

 

You don't seem to understand Russian history all that well, or the complexities of their economy and social structure.  I don't overestimate Putin's influence, if anything, I may be understating it. Using economics instead of diplomacy will have the opposite effect, it will galvanise the support for Putin further, his popularity soared after the annexation of Crimea and the incursion into Ukraine, even in the face of sanctions.

 

Sanctions have never worked in Russia and they won't work now, imo they're being used by the Obama administration as a tool to show the public they are doing something. It's apparently working.

 

Want to eat and have some stuff? Wounded national pride? Not even close.

 

 

 

[Badsmerf]

What do you propose then? An invasion? Why doesn't the US just take over the world? That way diplomacy can be spread globally and we can be sure everyone follows the moral code we've become accustomed to.

[twinsnorth49]

 

What do you propose then? An invasion? Why doesn't the US just take over the world? That way diplomacy can be spread globally and we can be sure everyone follows the moral code we've become accustomed to.

Not sure if you're responding to me but I have no idea what you're talking about.

[Badsmerf]

Wow, really had to dig to find this thread. Looks like we're on the brink of another cold war. Hopefully this doesn't escalate that far, but when schools are getting hit by missiles.... The rage inside is difficult to contain.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

With secular dictators.

 

I don't like that answer. I hate that answer. But, for that particular region, it was the height of navel-gazing for the Neocons in the early 2000's (OK, and well before) to believe that liberal democracy would take root by "just" toppling one or more dictators and then giving them some support.

 

While I'm generally an Obama supporter (if not apologist ) his adherence to part of the necon orthodoxy in the region is likely to turn out to be the worst mark against his 8 year administration. And Syria itself will be the worst of all - the half-measures taken to oust Assad have instead resulted in the slaughter of all the moderate political/military types and the exodus (or also slaughter) of all the moderate citizenry.

 

If stability isn't your #1 concern, maybe my answer is different. But 15 years of experience in regime-change is telling us something here.

Unfortunately, I believe this to be correct. The Arab Spring did not make the world a better or more fair place. It created cracks in the crust of unrealistic human hopefulness that were infested by hardline religious extremists.

 

The Arab Spring was a sprint and it should have been a marathon. Saying that, I don't live there, or feel the desperation of the people inhabiting the Arab Spring Countries.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Wow, really had to dig to find this thread. Looks like we're on the brink of another cold war. Hopefully this doesn't escalate that far, but when schools are getting hit by missiles.... The rage inside is difficult to contain.

 

Boy does Obama's dismissive attitude about Russia look stupid now.

 

How the hell did it get this far?