Action Plan for the Second Half of 2012--Part 1

[Curt]

Dozier is playing because he has potential. Casilla has spent most of his. That said, Casilla is still about one year younger than Carroll was when he got to the majors for the first time.

 

I don't think Dozier is the long term solution at short but I don't really see another around the bend. I'm willing to let him try it the rest of this year and probably next. I would not be saying that if the Twins were truly contenders though.

 

Sincerely, I hope Casilla is in this type of discussion somewhere in ten years. I think Casilla can play the Carroll roll for the Twins next year at 1/2 or 2/3 the price. I expect Carroll to be here and Casilla to be elsewhere though.

 

I'm glad no one mentioned Hardy.

[Oxtung]

1) However, the gulf between a soon-to-be 28 year old and a 38 year old is pretty wide.

2)Can Carroll honestly be expected to get better?

3) Carroll may have played in more games, but he has never, ever been a regular at one position for even half a season. Has anyone had a career arc where they become regulars at 38 and have their best years then?

4) Casilla could be a late bloomer--at almost 28, there is a small chance that he will improve to the point where he is pretty good. Florimon, at best, looks like a Casilla, but at shortstop. He's 2.5 year younger, but has eight big league at-bats and only this year cracked AAA.

1) At this point statistically it isn't. As a matter of fact the 38yo is outplaying the 28yo.

 

2) Carroll's career averages and his recent past both say this year is well below his norms offensively. Like I said just last year he hit .290/.347/.706 which was only slightly above his career average. So unless you're claiming his age has finally caught up with him, which is a possibility, yes he has a good chance to bounce back and have a good year next year.

 

3) This is just flat out wrong. In 2006 he started 102 games at 2B, 212 games with the Dodgers in '10-'11 and 76 games with the Twins so far. Whether or not he plays his best ball at this point in his career doesn't really matter. What matters is will he play better than Casilla and/or are his intangibles worth more to the club?

 

4) You're absolutely right. The 28 year old that has been below average in his career 1600 PA and hasn't been able to play even 100 games in a season has a chance to be pretty good but the 25yo with the supposedly great defense that has never been given a opportunity has no chance and shouldn't be given a shot. [/sarc]

[stringer bell]

1) At this point statistically it isn't. As a matter of fact the 38yo is outplaying the 28yo.

 

2) Carroll's career averages and his recent past both say this year is well below his norms offensively. Like I said just last year he hit .290/.347/.706 which was only slightly above his career average. So unless you're claiming his age has finally caught up with him, which is a possibility, yes he has a good chance to bounce back and have a good year next year.

 

3) This is just flat out wrong. In 2006 he started 102 games at 2B, 212 games with the Dodgers in '10-'11 and 76 games with the Twins so far. Whether or not he plays his best ball at this point in his career doesn't really matter. What matters is will he play better than Casilla and/or are his intangibles worth more to the club?

 

4) You're absolutely right. The 28 year old that has been below average in his career 1600 PA and hasn't been able to play even 100 games in a season has a chance to be pretty good but the 25yo with the supposedly great defense that has never been given a opportunity has no chance and shouldn't be given a shot. [/sarc]

It is a value judgement that Carroll is outplaying Casilla. The difference between them is OPS is so small that an official scorer's ruling or a lucky bounce could give Casilla a higher OPS. I would say that Casilla has played the best defense of the three middle infielders and his prowess on the bases is worth a bit more. Carroll's hitting numbers are pedestrian and powerless and his best years have been augmented by batting eighth in NL lineups and getting walked more than he otherwise would. The quote from me was that Carroll had never been a major league regular at one position and I believe that is the case. According to baseball-reference.com the most games he ever started at one position in one season is 102 (less than 2/3) and that was when he was 32. I like Florimon. I hope he learns to hit at the higher levels and can force himself into the argument for playing time in the middle infield. Just like Casilla, he hasn't had to climb past Ripken and Cano to get to the majors, but unlike Casilla, he has only had a cup of coffee in the big leagues at age 25.

 

As for Carroll--he brings great versatility and durability to the table--despite minimal talent, he has carved out an admirable major league career. He has been a very good utility infielder because of those traits. I just don't think he should routinely be starting especially for a noncontender at 38 years of age.

[CDog]

Carroll's hitting numbers are pedestrian and powerless and his best years have been augmented by batting eighth in NL lineups and getting walked more than he otherwise would.

I wondered and worried about this, but his AL walk rates and NL walk rates are about the same. Carry on.