Action Plan for the Second Half of 2012--Part 1

[Shane Wahl]

I find the dislike towards Casilla fascinating. Fact: Casilla and Valencia are the same age (give or take a month). Fact: Casilla has been playing better in a middle infield position (where the expectations about hitting are not the same as a corner position) that Valencia has at third base. Casilla's hitting as a MIF is better than Valencia's as a third baseman. Fact: Casilla is either the best or the second best (Revere) on the bases in this team. He has a lot of value and just entering his prime. He also needs consistent playing time... On the other hand, of course there has been a communication problem with him and the manager and the coaches like with most other Latin American players... And this is not Casilla's fault

And I find your liking of Casilla fascinating. He has been in the majors for 6 seasons. His speed and his defense (this year) are all he brings. That's it.

 

Has anyone mentioned Florimon at SS and Dozier at 2B, yet? I would like them to just try out the youth movement, get Dozier playing proper defense, and see what Florimon can do.

[Guest USAFChief]

I have no problem leaving Plouffe at third. He needs to learn a position, and if it's third, that's fine. Although....Mauer to third....

 

However, I disagree that Plouffe "can't" play 2nd. We don't know. Many of the same people now saying Plouffe has no chance to be a decent second baseman are the same people who were loudly proclaiming Plouffe had no chance to be a third baseman. This despite Plouffe lasting through every minor league level as a SS. Players without infield skills do not make it the majors as a SS. My guess is he could learn second base.

 

I do agree that it's still an open question whether Plouffe will end up hitting enough to justify a full time job, but it's certainly been encouraging since he's gotten regular ABs, and it certainly merits continued play, somewhere.

[jokin]

​

I find the dislike towards Casilla fascinating. Fact: Casilla and Valencia are the same age (give or take a month). Fact: Casilla has been playing better in a middle infield position (where the expectations about hitting are not the same as a corner position) that Valencia has at third base. Casilla's hitting as a MIF is better than Valencia's as a third baseman. Fact: Casilla is either the best or the second best (Revere) on the bases in this team. He has a lot of value and just entering his prime. He also needs consistent playing time... On the other hand, of course there has been a communication problem with him and the manager and the coaches like with most other Latin American players... And this is not Casilla's fault

Plouffe finally finds a spot on the field where he finally looks like he's not dancing on hot coals, this comfort level transfers to his hitting production, and people are actually calling for him to move to spot where he's destined to fail? Remarkable. People, there is only one guy at 2B that can really hit, Robinson Cano. Ian Kinsler makes $7.2Mil, did you watch him butcher ball after ball hit to him last weekend? Want to know who the 6th highest rated 2B in WAR is for 2010-12? Rickie Weeks. Here's his line over that time: 254/350/440. HE MAKES $11 MILLION. Casilla's line over the same period: 257/311/357 for less than 1/10 the cost.

[Mike Sixel]

Casilla was historically bad as a hitter one year, I don't get why everyone keeps ignoring his hitting, like somehow running (when you can't get on base) is more important, or making 1 play every 2-3 weeks that others wouldn't make is more important. He's a league replacement level player, a backup quality player. It's not a communication problem that keeps him from being able to hit. And, no one on this thread is defending Valencia as a MLB player, but nice straw man argument. what do you base "he has a lot of value" on? His 1 WAR per year? He's just not been good, even when he's been "good Alexi".

[jokin]

Exactly. I posted awhile ago about dumping grounds for Casilla and Valencia. Sticking to the former here, I believe some relevant teams would be Baltimore, Washington, and San Francisco.

Detroit

[jokin]

Casilla was historically bad as a hitter one year, I don't get why everyone keeps ignoring his hitting, like somehow running (when you can't get on base) is more important, or making 1 play every 2-3 weeks that others wouldn't make is more important. He's a league replacement level player, a backup quality player. It's not a communication problem that keeps him from being able to hit. And, no one on this thread is defending Valencia as a MLB player, but nice straw man argument. what do you base "he has a lot of value" on? His 1 WAR per year? He's just not been good, even when he's been "good Alexi".

Up to his FA year, he's very cheap, on a team that has overpayed others, leaving them few other options until they develop one internally.

 

I don't think anyone is ignoring Casilla's offense, it's just that defense is just more important than hitting in the MI and you're obviously overstating your case about making 1 play every 2-3 weeks.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Casilla was historically bad as a hitter one year, I don't get why everyone keeps ignoring his hitting, like somehow running (when you can't get on base) is more important, or making 1 play every 2-3 weeks that others wouldn't make is more important. He's a league replacement level player, a backup quality player. It's not a communication problem that keeps him from being able to hit. And, no one on this thread is defending Valencia as a MLB player, but nice straw man argument. what do you base "he has a lot of value" on? His 1 WAR per year? He's just not been good, even when he's been "good Alexi".

I'm not going to hold Alexi's epic-awful age 24 season against him. He's been pretty good since that point (though not so much this year).

 

On the other hand, I don't really disagree with anything else you said. When he plays, he's an alright player. The problem is that he doesn't play enough. Part of that is the front office, part of that is management, part of that is Alexi himself.

 

At this point, I don't see him starting anywhere but I think he's a solid backup player. I'd rather have him on my team in 2013 than Jamey Carroll (and I also think Carroll is a solid backup).

[Mike Sixel]

Really? You think he makes a play that no other MIF would make more often than 1 time every 10-15 games? How many opportunities are there to even make a play that is a great play? I doubt there are even that many opportunities, let alone that many made.

 

He's not very cheap, not as a backup or replacement level player. Dozier is very cheap, Casilla will make $2-4MM next year. Replace that with a guy that makes $400K, and put that extra money into a real player (which is what they should do with the bullpen also....). All those $1-3MM add up to money for legit players.

[DaveW]

Casilla would be a nice stop gap if he could actually play more than a 100 games a year.

[Thrylos]

Casilla would be a nice stop gap if he could actually play more than a 100 games a year.

He is healthy this year. He is not playing because the Manager of the Millennium is not playing him.

[Guest USAFChief]

He is healthy this year. He is not playing because the Manager of the Millennium is not playing him.

...and the Manager of the Millennium is not playing him because he hasn't earned any playing time.

[DaveW]

He is healthy this year. He is not playing because the Manager of the Millennium is not playing him.

He isn't playing because he is the 4th best infield option at this point behind Plouffe, Dozier and Carroll.

 

I get the whole wanting to trade Caroll thing since he is old and won't be part of the long term future, but Caroll shouldn't be benched on a regular basis for Alexi freaking Casilla who has had his share of chances thus far.

 

If he wants to play every day he can easily win the job if he can actually put up a .650 OPS at this point.

[jokin]

Really? You think he makes a play that no other MIF would make more often than 1 time every 10-15 games? How many opportunities are there to even make a play that is a great play? I doubt there are even that many opportunities, let alone that many made.

 

He's not very cheap, not as a backup or replacement level player. Dozier is very cheap, Casilla will make $2-4MM next year. Replace that with a guy that makes $400K, and put that extra money into a real player (which is what they should do with the bullpen also....). All those $1-3MM add up to money for legit players.

I'm not advocating necessarily keeping him, and certainly not for upwards of $2MM+. I am advocating spending on pitching and prospects and maximizing Casilla's value until the Twins part ways. If you have a "real player" in mind at 2B for the "extra money", I'm listening- who is the "legit player" at 2B that will fulfill your wildest dreams? The won't likely trade for it, and certainly won't sign a FA, so who is it? Dozier? Dinkleman? Beresford?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Detroit

 

wonder if they have another Oliveros type prospect to give up for him... he'd be a nice upgrade over what they have right now.

[jokin]

wonder if they have another Oliveros type prospect to give up for him... he'd be a nice upgrade over what they have right now.

Exactly right. I posited this previously and I hope to heck the Twins are inquiring, even if it's within their own division.

[Top Gun]

To many managers and gm on this board.

[old nurse]

To many managers and gm on this board.

To many wanna be managers and gms. It is the fantasy of some, let them enjoy the dreams.

[IdahoPilgrim]

He isn't playing because he is the 4th best infield option at this point behind Plouffe, Dozier and Carroll.

 

I get the whole wanting to trade Caroll thing since he is old and won't be part of the long term future, but Caroll shouldn't be benched on a regular basis for Alexi freaking Casilla who has had his share of chances thus far.

 

If he wants to play every day he can easily win the job if he can actually put up a .650 OPS at this point.

I find it difficult to rank him behind Dozier, given Dozier's performance at the plate and in the field. If you want to make the argument that Dozier deserves a chance to play and show what he can do (and that Casilla has already had that chance) I'm willing to listen, but I just don't see how, based on current performance, Dozier is better than Casilla.

[DaveW]

I find it difficult to rank him behind Dozier, given Dozier's performance at the plate and in the field. If you want to make the argument that Dozier deserves a chance to play and show what he can do (and that Casilla has already had that chance) I'm willing to listen, but I just don't see how, based on current performance, Dozier is better than Casilla.

Thats a valid point, I put Dozier ahead of him just because I think at this point Dozier has a significantly higher ceiling then Casilla and this is his first shot in the majors. If Casilla hadn't had a half dozen shots before I would agree, but the Twins have all but given him the opp to be in the starting lineup every single year if only he had preformed/stayed healthy.

[snepp]

To many managers and gm on this board.

Oh noes!

[jokin]

Really? You think he makes a play that no other MIF would make more often than 1 time every 10-15 games? How many opportunities are there to even make a play that is a great play? I doubt there are even that many opportunities, let alone that many made.

 

How many speculative interrogatories can one paragraph hold? I'll try to answer, based on watching every game this year. 1) Yes 2) "No other"? Hard to answer a speculation this vague, and I don't recall characterizing his plays as ones "no other" can make, it's safe to say based on the eye test that Casilla has made good-to-great "rangy" plays and/or agile DP pivots in virtually every game he has appeared in, and most importantly in the Twins situation, he's doing it at a tiny fraction of the MLB average 2B salary. Which is also in contrast to some of the repeatedly shoddy play shown at 2B by recent Twins' opponents in June and July. 3) 2B year-in/year-out usually have the most Total Chances of any position player (other than 1B), and given the hole frequently at first with a man on base, plus bunt coverages, are required to cover the most ground in the infield. 4) More speculation, less of a question, see the answer to #3

[stringer bell]

It looks to me like Florimon's upside would be a low OBP, good speed and defense, bottom of the order guy. He isn't allergic to XBH, but he doesn't make solid contact often enough to put up good power numbers. That doesn't scream MLB regular. I still am holding out hope that his hitting improves to a point where he can be in a big league lineup and wow us fans with his defense.

 

Back to the Alexi/Jamie/ Brian trio. We all know what we can get from Carroll--versatility, steady defense, OK OBP and no power. That absolutely says "utility infielder". It makes sense to me to decide whether Casilla is worth keeping in 2013--as noted above he hasn't played in over 100 games in a season in his career, but so far he's been healthy. Carroll could start once a week at short and once a week at second to rest the two younger players. If Dozier continues to spiral, especially on defense, start Carroll or Florimon there and if Casilla can't get it going by the end of this month, make the decision that he's not part of the future (DFA him whatever). Maybe Alexi can make himself tradeable, maybe he can get a contract for next year or maybe he gets nontendered in the winter.

[DaveW]

It looks to me like Florimon's upside would be a low OBP, good speed and defense, bottom of the order guy. He isn't allergic to XBH, but he doesn't make solid contact often enough to put up good power numbers. That doesn't scream MLB regular. I still am holding out hope that his hitting improves to a point where he can be in a big league lineup and wow us fans with his defense.

 

Back to the Alexi/Jamie/ Brian trio. We all know what we can get from Carroll--versatility, steady defense, OK OBP and no power. That absolutely says "utility infielder". It makes sense to me to decide whether Casilla is worth keeping in 2013--as noted above he hasn't played in over 100 games in a season in his career, but so far he's been healthy. Carroll could start once a week at short and once a week at second to rest the two younger players. If Dozier continues to spiral, especially on defense, start Carroll or Florimon there and if Casilla can't get it going by the end of this month, make the decision that he's not part of the future (DFA him whatever). Maybe Alexi can make himself tradeable, maybe he can get a contract for next year or maybe he gets nontendered in the winter.

If it was up to me I'd rather they trade Caroll and keep Casilla around as the UTIL INF/Back up guy off the bench for a couple reasons. Casilla would make 1.75 million (2 mil if you count the club option to decline in 2014) less than Caroll next year (assuming he gets 2 mil in arb) and could provide better speed off the bench if needed.

 

With all that said, the Twins would still need to find an everyday 2B for 2013 if that's the case, Plouffe maybe is an option if Valencia comes back somewhat effective? Or else you have to roll with Alexi as the every day 2B heading into the season which is far from ideal.

[Waverley Wildcat]

What about Beresford, currently playing 50% SS & 2b at New Brittain, he shows excellent fielding skills both left and right, only 4 errors in 71 games and his batting is more about contact with the lowest by far Ks by regulars players, power is down but seems to hit the ball a lot.

[diehardtwinsfan]

did something happen in the Texas series that everyone thinks Dozier is spiraling? He was hitting quite well in Detroit. This is his rookie year, he's not a super prospect by any means.... meaning he's going to take some lumps. This is when you let the kid play and see what he can do without the pressure of knowing that if he makes a mistake he will be on the plane back to Rochester.

 

The question is not Casilla vs. Dozier. It should be Casilla vs. Carrol at 2nd. Honestly, I don't get the big deal. Like others said, the guy has had a ridiculous number of chances including getting the position handed to him in the offseason only for him to blow it. Next year, he's going to cost what Carrol does as well, which essentially makes him overpriced. He's going to be let go and will sign a 1/1M prove it contract with some other team to be a backup or have a chance to compete for a starting job. The only chance of that not happening is if we can convince a team like Detroit to part with a C+ prospect, as he would be a fairly modest upgrade to their situation, and I doubt playing him every day will effect that... I'd add that playing him every day could also destroy what little value he has.

[Brock Beauchamp]

did something happen in the Texas series that everyone thinks Dozier is spiraling? He was hitting quite well in Detroit. This is his rookie year, he's not a super prospect by any means.... meaning he's going to take some lumps. This is when you let the kid play and see what he can do without the pressure of knowing that if he makes a mistake he will be on the plane back to Rochester.

 

The question is not Casilla vs. Dozier. It should be Casilla vs. Carrol at 2nd. Honestly, I don't get the big deal. Like others said, the guy has had a ridiculous number of chances including getting the position handed to him in the offseason only for him to blow it. Next year, he's going to cost what Carrol does as well, which essentially makes him overpriced. He's going to be let go and will sign a 1/1M prove it contract with some other team to be a backup or have a chance to compete for a starting job. The only chance of that not happening is if we can convince a team like Detroit to part with a C+ prospect, as he would be a fairly modest upgrade to their situation, and I doubt playing him every day will effect that... I'd add that playing him every day could also destroy what little value he has.

You said almost exactly what I've been saying. Dozier picked it up in Detroit. He stumbled a bit later but hey, he's a rookie. It happens. Cuddyer and Kubel took their lumps before emerging as quality players and they were better prospects than Dozier in their MiLB stints.

 

I feel like Casilla and Carroll are pretty much interchangeable. I like Casilla because he's younger and will be slightly cheaper than Carroll. On the other hand, having an old MI vet around might help Dozier. Either way, I'm not going to get worked up about it.

[Oxtung]

There are several points that I would like to make:

 

1) Casilla has NO trade value right now. Teams at this point are looking for that player(s) that are going to send them to the top of their division. Mentioned trade partners so far:

Twins: Casilla .236, .308, .577

Nats: Espinosa .232, .374, .683.....only 25yr old and hit 21 home runs last year.

Tigers: Santiago .230, .316, .620

Orioles: Andino .231, .318, .611

Giants: Theriot .275, .322, .632

Who here actually thinks any team looks at that line and thinks "I need to add that to my team! We're going to the playoffs!". If you want to argue teams in the offseason might trade for Casilla if he plays the second half and demonstrates an improvement I wouldn't disagree but right now he has no trade value.

 

2) Casilla vs. Florimon vs. Dozier vs. Carroll re:2013

To me Casilla is the odd man out here. Florimon and Dozier are potential pieces of the future and the only way to truly know is to give them a shot. Casilla has repeatedly shown that he is not the long term solution not because he doesn't have flashes of mediocrity but because he can't stay on the field and has shown a propensity to crater offensively. Carroll hit .290, .347, .706 last year which is just slightly above his career numbers. To me it is worth keeping him around to see if he can return to his career norms. Maybe his age has caught up to him and he is just downhill but maybe he is just having a poor year at the plate. Carroll is also owed $3.75M next year where as Alexi is owed $0. That is probably the biggest reason to keep Carroll.

 

3) "Carroll is a career backup." Carroll has played in more games than Alexi Casilla in every season except 1. So if Carroll is a "career backup" what does that make Alexi?

[stringer bell]

There are several points that I would like to make:

 

1) Casilla has NO trade value right now. Teams at this point are looking for that player(s) that are going to send them to the top of their division. Mentioned trade partners so far:

Twins: Casilla .236, .308, .577

Nats: Espinosa .232, .374, .683.....only 25yr old and hit 21 home runs last year.

Tigers: Santiago .230, .316, .620

Orioles: Andino .231, .318, .611

Giants: Theriot .275, .322, .632

Who here actually thinks any team looks at that line and thinks "I need to add that to my team! We're going to the playoffs!". If you want to argue teams in the offseason might trade for Casilla if he plays the second half and demonstrates an improvement I wouldn't disagree but right now he has no trade value.

 

2) Casilla vs. Florimon vs. Dozier vs. Carroll re:2013

To me Casilla is the odd man out here. Florimon and Dozier are potential pieces of the future and the only way to truly know is to give them a shot. Casilla has repeatedly shown that he is not the long term solution not because he doesn't have flashes of mediocrity but because he can't stay on the field and has shown a propensity to crater offensively. Carroll hit .290, .347, .706 last year which is just slightly above his career numbers. To me it is worth keeping him around to see if he can return to his career norms. Maybe his age has caught up to him and he is just downhill but maybe he is just having a poor year at the plate. Carroll is also owed $3.75M next year where as Alexi is owed $0. That is probably the biggest reason to keep Carroll.

 

3) "Carroll is a career backup." Carroll has played in more games than Alexi Casilla in every season except 1. So if Carroll is a "career backup" what does that make Alexi?

It makes Casilla injury prone and/or disappointing. However, the gulf between a soon-to-be 28 year old and a 38 year old is pretty wide. Can Carroll honestly be expected to get better? Carroll may have played in more games, but he has never, ever been a regular at one position for even half a season. Has anyone had a career arc where they become regulars at 38 and have their best years then? Casilla could be a late bloomer--at almost 28, there is a small chance that he will improve to the point where he is pretty good. Florimon, at best, looks like a Casilla, but at shortstop. He's 2.5 year younger, but has eight big league at-bats and only this year cracked AAA.

[Shane Wahl]

Yangervis Solarte with a .760 OPS in AAA this year, mostly at 2B, but with some time at 3B and in LF. Six homers. 30 walks / 26 strikeouts. 21 doubles. He would have altered this conversation significantly, I think. Not sure why he didn't sign as a six-year FA with the Twins org. Either the Twins didn't want him, or because the Twins FOOLISHLY didn't promote him to AAA late last year when he clearly deserved it instead of the plethora of jokers on that polluted AAA roster last year, he simply wanted to get the hell away.

 

Whatever is going to be the plan next year has to be started this year. So Florimon should definitely get some time (at short) and Dozier can play 2B. If one really thinks that saving $4.5 million or whatever is going to get the Twins to spend that money on pitching, then clearly Florimon and Dozier in, while Casilla and Carroll out (meaning . . . NISHIOKA . . .). I don't think Carroll is going to have any real suitors, though, and he does have very good value as a backup for those three infield positions.

 

If Florimon doesn't work out this year, oh well. Carroll and Nishioka are options still. Beresford is definitely someone who needs to continue AA numbers in AAA before I would think about including him in this mix.

[Brock Beauchamp]

One person no one is mentioning in this thread is Michael... He's quietly starting to put together a decent season in Fort Myers.

 

Given his age and that his early season play could be due to shaking the rust off and adjusting to wooden bats, it wouldn't be a shock to see him get a call to New Britain this season (though I think he'll start next season there if things continue to progress). Either way, I think he'll start progressing through the ranks quickly if he stays healthy.

 

By the middle of next year, we could be talking about him getting the call to the Twins.