Action Plan for the Second Half of 2012--Part 1

[stringer bell]

Play Casilla more and/or recall Florimon

 

The Twins have divided up the middle infield between Casilla, Carroll, and Dozier. Casilla and Carroll were the regulars until Dozier was recalled, at which time he became the regular SS, moving Carroll mostly to second and Casilla to the bench. At the break, you can throw a blanket over the three offensively--Dozier's OPS is .599, Carroll's is .597 and Casilla's is .577, all substandard. Defensively, Dozier has been poor--13 errors in 53 games--Carroll has been good, and Casilla probably a bit better than good. Carroll has played second, short and third, while Casilla has played almost solely at second and Dozier has played exclusively at short. In less playing time, Casilla is 10 for 11 in SB, while Dozier and Carroll have both stolen six bases.

 

 

If all the players were the same age or had the same major league experience, this would be an ideal job sharing situation. It isn't because Carroll is a long-in-the tooth veteran, Casilla has multiple years and Dozier is a rookie. If the Twins are going to be good, they need better play from shortstop than they have received this year. I think they need to see if Dozier can be that guy. He has shown flashes, but he hasn't hit much for more than a month and he has had periods of time when his defense has been unacceptable. If the Twins think he would benefit from more minor league time, then the Twins should recall Florimon, who is reputed to be a good defender, has a bit of power and quite a bit of speed. The question is whether he can hit.

 

 

Jamie Carroll has been a utility player all of his career. He is on track to play in the most games and have the most plate appearances of his career. He is currently in a deep slump and his overall line just doesn't merit everyday play. The Twins aren't going to win anything this year and investing another 250 plate appearances in a powerless 38 year old middle infielder makes no sense.

 

 

That leaves Casilla. Alexi has a track record and it is mixed at best. He has been inconsistent on the field, with a history of injuries. In 2008, he emerged from oblivion to be a regular and lead an unlikely run to game 163, but he was injured late and when handed a starting job was horrendous the following year. Last year, after sinking to the end of the bench, Casilla was among the best players on the team when they went on their only good run of the season. When he suffered what ended up being a season ending injury, the team went in the tank. Casilla got a raise this year because of arbitration and will be eligible for arb again this offseason before becoming a free agent after 2013. The Twins need to know whether he can be an everyday player, a utility guy or less. I think a month's worth of games would be a fair test. He could play his way to a DFA or non-tender or he could get a raise and maybe a multiyear deal.

[Mike Sixel]

Casilla is a bad baseball player (at the MLB level). I'd rather they call up Floriman or something, anything, other than play Casilla more. What more do you need to see to understand that he's not a legit MLB starting 2B?

[Top Gun]

Matt Maloney will undergo Tommy John surgery.

 

Maloney revealed the news himself on Twitter. "My season is officially over," he tweeted. "Gotta have tommy john surgery. Gonna be a lengthy recovery, but I'll be back stronger then ever." Maloney, who allowed 10 runs over 11 innings earlier this season for the Twins, will be sidelined until around midseason next year.

 

 

Source: Matt Maloney on Twitter

[stringer bell]

Casilla is a bad baseball player (at the MLB level). I'd rather they call up Floriman or something, anything, other than play Casilla more. What more do you need to see to understand that he's not a legit MLB starting 2B?

I'm not a believer in defensive metrics, but my eyes see an excellent defender at second base. Casilla has the ability to be a disruptive force on the bases, so the only factor is hitting enough. I think he's a marginal big league regular if he can hit .250, which is pretty close to his lifetime average.

[Badsmerf]

Casilla is a bad baseball player (at the MLB level). I'd rather they call up Floriman or something, anything, other than play Casilla more. What more do you need to see to understand that he's not a legit MLB starting 2B?

I wouldn't go that far. Casilla has plenty of value as long as his speed holds up. I don't think he's a long-term solution, but he is better than and should be playing in front of Carrol.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I also would like to see Casilla playing regularly. Is he our long-term 2B? No. But until we get one (whoever that is) he's the best option. Then you have a choice: play Dozier at short to get MLB experience and bench Carroll, or play Carroll at short and send Dozier down to Rochester. Granted, he won't get experience hitting MLB pitchers down there, but he will get experience fielding the position, which is I think his biggest liability right now. A shortstop in AAA gets just as many chances as a shortstop at MLB. Let him spend the rest of the year learning the position, and maybe next year he'll be better prepared for the show.

[greengoblinrulz]

Matt Maloney will undergo Tommy John surgery.

 

Maloney revealed the news himself on Twitter. "My season is officially over," he tweeted. "Gotta have tommy john surgery. Gonna be a lengthy recovery, but I'll be back stronger then ever." Maloney, who allowed 10 runs over 11 innings earlier this season for the Twins, will be sidelined until around midseason next year.

 

 

Source: Matt Maloney on Twitter

GREAT, now they decide to have the surgery on a pitcher....but its Maloney???

[Guest USAFChief]

Carroll might be around in 2013. Can't say I believe the same about Casilla.

 

I can understand the argument for playing Casilla, I just don't see a major league player there.

[glunn]

 

I can understand the argument for playing Casilla, I just don't see a major league player there.

Chief, you are probably correct, but I was thinking the same thing about Plouffe last year. Maybe this is a team with more than one late bloomer?

[Guest USAFChief]

Chief, you are probably correct, but I was thinking the same thing about Plouffe last year. Maybe this is a team with more than one late bloomer?

Possible, but Casilla will be 28 this month, has had mulitple unsuccessful opportunities to lock down a job, and 1600+ MLB PAs at .250/.306/.333.

 

IMO that ship has sailed.

 

Even with that, I can understand the argument he probably should be playing ahead of Carroll.

[snepp]

Pffft on Casilla. Sure, he may as well play, but there's very little future there.

[glunn]

Possible, but Casilla will be 28 this month, has had mulitple unsuccessful opportunities to lock down a job, and 1600+ MLB PAs at .250/.306/.333.

 

IMO that ship has sailed.

 

Even with that, I can understand the argument he probably should be playing ahead of Carroll.

That makes sense to me as well. And I seem to recall a few flashes of Plouffe-like streaks from Casilla, and it seems possible that Plouffe and Revere might inspire Casilla to realize more of his potential.

 

I would also like to see Florimon get a chance.

[old nurse]

Pedro is stopgap at best. It is not like he was blocked at the major league level in Baltimore

[glunn]

Pedro is stopgap at best. It is not like he was blocked at the major league level in Baltimore

His history is not bright, but if he plays next to Plouffe, then maybe some magic could hit him as well. And it would be nice to see just how slickly he can field, if only for a couple of weeks. In the meantime, I don't see the harm from sending Dozier down for a while to work on his game in a lower pressure environment. This seems like a luxury of being in last place -- the goal can be development for the future, not winning now.

[jokin]

Casilla is a bad baseball player (at the MLB level). I'd rather they call up Floriman or something, anything, other than play Casilla more. What more do you need to see to understand that he's not a legit MLB starting 2B?

Did you read Stringerbell's entire post? Have you been watching the games this year? Casilla is easily having his finest year defensively. He has saved countless runs and ended many an inning, snaring line-shots, and seeing-eye, hard-hit grounders, to his left and right, frequently laying out full-horizontal and adroitly turning DPs as both initiator and middle-man- which has gotten the Twins pitchers out of many threatening situations and the club far and away leads the majors in that department. FWIW, given the quantifiable metrics that are available, Casilla ranks 7th among all active 2B for 2010-12 and 2011-12 and 2nd for 2012 alone in UZR/150. If you evaluate him solely as a hitter, I see where you're coming from, but even there, if he gets an extended run or two before the season ends, he historically has had a couple of short 10-25 day runs per year where he hits for high average and he does have 2 seasons where he hit above positional average. I fully agree with the OP, establishing his value for trade purposes and future arb worth as a utility player should be a priority in the 2nd half. If Caroll rightly returns to the career role he is accustomed as utility infielder (he currently is on pace to play 153 games, the most in his career) and can play that to age 40 (through 2014), than Casilla should play more now, with Florimon getting his shot in September. Is there anyone else knocking at the door to take that spot in 2013? Eddie Rosario is at least two years away, and there's no firm evidence in yet that he will master 2B. The Twins have to prioritize their spending on pitching, the MI has demonstrably been shored up from last year's disaster of a year with a relatively cheap fix. Hopefully Dozier continues to improve and/or Florimon definitively takes the job away from Casilla.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Casillas saving grace is that he'd be an upgrade for many contending teams (not much of one, but that tells you how bad the MI is right now)... Do agree that defensively he's much improved. That said, I dont' think he's in the 2013 plans at all, which is why he's doing what he's doing now.

[Badsmerf]

I certainly hope Carrol isn't in the 2013 plans over Casilla. Carrol is a solid fielder and thats it, he does nothing else well. Casilla at least has plus speed to go along with a better bat and is cheaper. Carrol makes no sense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Play Dozier. Past that, I don't much care. All the BYTOers know my stance on Casilla. If he's healthy and his head has been forcibly removed from his rectum, he's a league average guy.

 

The problem is that his health and skull rectal removal surgery are always temporary things. He has all kinds of upside but can't put it together for more than a couple hundred PAs a season.

[Cody Christie]

I certainly hope Carrol isn't in the 2013 plans over Casilla. Carrol is a solid fielder and thats it, he does nothing else well. Casilla at least has plus speed to go along with a better bat and is cheaper. Carrol makes no sense.

Carroll is already under contract for next season while Casilla would have to go through the arbitration process for the third time. The Twins could just decide to pass on Casilla and fill the utility role with someone from the minors.

[Cody Christie]

He has all kinds of upside but can't put it together for more than a couple hundred PAs a season.

Sounds like he has been hanging out with Liriano too much.

[James]

I certainly hope Carrol isn't in the 2013 plans over Casilla. Carrol is a solid fielder and thats it, he does nothing else well. Casilla at least has plus speed to go along with a better bat and is cheaper. Carrol makes no sense.

Is Casilla worth around the $2MM that he would probably get through arbitration next year though. That is the question.

 

I'm not saying Carroll is going to be worth the money he will be making either.

 

Florimon is an interesting person to throw in the mix, but the question is where do you put him? He has been playing a SS exclusively this season (execpt for one appearance as a pitcher). Would you move Dozier to 2B and have Florimon play SS, or would you put him at a position that he has only played 2 times in his professional career?

[Mike Sixel]

I read the post, but you guys are asking us to completely ignore his inept hitting. Here is his WAR, year by year.....2007, negative .9. 2008, poisitve 1.4, 2009, negative 1.2, 2010, positive 1.1, 2011, positive 1.4, 2012, positive .5. So, he's about a 1 WAR player the last three years. However, if you look at the components, nearly all the positives are in defense and baserunning. So, if you don't believe in UZR, you don't really believe he's even a 1 win player. He's been awful as a hitter, historically bad even. He's had plenty of time and at bats to show what he can do as a fulltime player. Yes, he's younger than Carroll, but let's think about this. If you have to pay him more than $2MM per year, would you rather have him, or some AAA guy either currently in the system, or acquired at some point? He's really not worth more than a some minimum wage guy, and every penny you don't spend on a bad veteran, is money you can invest in better veterans. It really doesn't matter much to me what they do with Carroll/Casilla this year, as long as they don't invest money in Casilla next year, and put that savings toward pitching or a legit 2B/SS.

[Mauerzy4Prez]

Last night on bumper to bumper Ron Coomer made his weekly appearance. In discussion about the second half plans he made a comment about the idea to try Mastrionni at 2nd base... When checking his stats I can see that he has played 68 games at 2nd in the minors. FPCT is .965, 21 DP's and 10 errors.

 

This idea is pretty intriguing to me. His speed and ability to create havoc on the bases is probably best on the team. The guy so far has proven he can handle major league pitching. I think this would not be a bad idea to clear the way for some of the OF prospects we have coming up and also filling a hole at 2nd base.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I read the post, but you guys are asking us to completely ignore his inept hitting. Here is his WAR, year by year.....2007, negative .9. 2008, poisitve 1.4, 2009, negative 1.2, 2010, positive 1.1, 2011, positive 1.4, 2012, positive .5. So, he's about a 1 WAR player the last three years. However, if you look at the components, nearly all the positives are in defense and baserunning. So, if you don't believe in UZR, you don't really believe he's even a 1 win player. He's been awful as a hitter, historically bad even. He's had plenty of time and at bats to show what he can do as a fulltime player. Yes, he's younger than Carroll, but let's think about this. If you have to pay him more than $2MM per year, would you rather have him, or some AAA guy either currently in the system, or acquired at some point? He's really not worth more than a some minimum wage guy, and every penny you don't spend on a bad veteran, is money you can invest in better veterans. It really doesn't matter much to me what they do with Carroll/Casilla this year, as long as they don't invest money in Casilla next year, and put that savings toward pitching or a legit 2B/SS.

On the other hand, more savings could be found by keeping Casilla and offloading Carroll (if that's even possible given his contract).

 

At the end of the day, I'm not sure it matters much.

[stringer bell]

I read the post, but you guys are asking us to completely ignore his inept hitting. Here is his WAR, year by year.....2007, negative .9. 2008, poisitve 1.4, 2009, negative 1.2, 2010, positive 1.1, 2011, positive 1.4, 2012, positive .5. So, he's about a 1 WAR player the last three years. However, if you look at the components, nearly all the positives are in defense and baserunning. So, if you don't believe in UZR, you don't really believe he's even a 1 win player. He's been awful as a hitter, historically bad even. He's had plenty of time and at bats to show what he can do as a fulltime player. Yes, he's younger than Carroll, but let's think about this. If you have to pay him more than $2MM per year, would you rather have him, or some AAA guy either currently in the system, or acquired at some point? He's really not worth more than a some minimum wage guy, and every penny you don't spend on a bad veteran, is money you can invest in better veterans. It really doesn't matter much to me what they do with Carroll/Casilla this year, as long as they don't invest money in Casilla next year, and put that savings toward pitching or a legit 2B/SS.

I don't believe in the metrics, but I do believe Casilla has been very good defensively for the past year. I do value defense in the middle infield and that is why I have questions about Dozier, not from his disappointing swoon at the plate (I think he'll recover). Casilla has been enigmatic, and I'm sure I wouldn't commit long term to him, but the Twins do need to know whether they will non-tender him or maybe if they want to DFA him this summer. I think there is a good player there who can provide speed and defense from the middle infield. If the top 7-8 hitters are hitting, his offense and baserunning would be a bonus as long as the defense was better than good.

[stringer bell]

Not a bad idea. Mastro hits like a middle infielder and despite his speed, I'm not impressed with his defense in the outfield. If he could handle the position defensively, give him a shot.

[Seth Stohs]

I believe that in 2013, we will see a lot of Pedro Florimon at SS. He likely won't post a .600 OPS but I've been told his glove is incredible. I'd expect to see Dozier at 2B. I'd like to see Jamey Carroll kept around as insurance and as a mentor for those two. He's a perfect role model for those guys.

[Mike Sixel]

According to fangraphs, Carroll has been much better than Casilla defensively this year, for what it is worth. One of them should go, to save money. The one that stays should be a backup. And, some younger guy should be the starter (with Dozer at SS or 2B).

[Brock Beauchamp]

According to fangraphs, Carroll has been much better than Casilla defensively this year, for what it is worth. One of them should go, to save money. The one that stays should be a backup. And, some younger guy should be the starter (with Dozer at SS or 2B).

Don't put too much stock in the defensive metrics of part-time players using partial season statistics. WAR is basically useless until an entire season has been played and it's a little sketchy until you get two years worth of data. The other defensive metrics aren't much different.

 

But overall, I agree with your point. One should go. I'd prefer it be Carroll because he's making too much money but I'm not going to get too riled up about it one way or the other. If the Twins think Carroll is a good mentor character for the young infielders, so be it.

[Winston Smith]

Bring up Valencia, move Plouffe to 2nd and let them play the rest of the year. Plouffe plays first when a lefty is pitching, C & C are utility guys. Carroll is old, Casilla has shown enough times he isn't an everyday player. Find out what these other guys can do for an extended time. Either they are the future or they aren't. Stop screwing around worried about a win or two the rest of the way. It's time to established what the core of this team will be going into next year, imo.