The Twins have a tough schedule down the stretch and it started on Wednesday with a doubleheader. The Twins were able to get a lead early and had a big inning off of Carlos Carrasco to take an early lead and held on for a 7-1 win. Also, after arguably his worst start of the season, Kyle Gibson came through in a big way on this day.

Here is a look at the big plays of Game 1 as we look forward to Game 2.Using Win Probabilty Added from Fan Graphs, the story of Game 1 is told below. As has been mentioned before, to determine these percentages, years upon years of actual game situations are used to determine how likely a team is to win from play to play. There were some big, game-changing plays in this one.

 

A BIG START

 

Joe Mauer batted second and hit his 10th home run of the season. (10.9%)

 

It's been a tough season for Mauer, but he led the way early for the Twins in this game. It's always great to get an early lead, and with Gibson's most recent start, a one-run lead is very important early. Statistically, it was the one play of the game that gave the Twins the best chance to win.

 

A BIG INNING

 

Joe Mauer double. (6.3%)

Miguel Sano singled Mauer to third base. (6.6%)

Trevor Plouffe RBI single scored Mauer, with Sano going to second. (5.0%)

Eddie Rosario walked to load the bases. (5.1%)

Torii Hunter clears the bases with a double. (8.4%)

 

With the score still 1-0 Twins going into the fourth inning, it was Mauer again who got things going with the leadoff double. And that was followed by big plate appearance after big plate appearance. Torii Hunter ended Carlos Carrasco's afternoon with a bases-clearing double down the left field line. That hit may not have been as big by WPA as Mauer's. However, it was the play that really put the game away for the Twins.

 

While Hunter's double increased the Twins odds of winning by 8.4%, the bigger picture is what matters. The Twins began that fourth inning with a 63.7% chance of winning the game. Following Hunter's double, the Twins odds of winning jumped to 95.1%

 

BUXTON CONTRIBUTES AGAIN

 

Twins fans have seen a different Byron Buxton in his last two starts. He had two hits including his first MLB home run over the weekend. He had two important hits in this game as well:

 

7th inning, Eduardo Nunez was on third base and Buxton had a broken-bat single to right to give the Twins a 6-1 lead. WPA says that it increased the Twins odds of winning by just 0.6%, but insurance runs are always good.

 

In the top of the 9th, Buxton led off with a huge home run just right of dead center field. Again, it was an insurance run late in the game to give the Twins a 7-1 lead, so WPA said it only increase the Twins odds of winning by 0.3%

 

More important, the success has to be giving Buxton the confidence that he can contribute to this winning Minnesota Twins team beyond just his great defense. That's important in the next few days, and it's really important looking to the future.

 

KYLE GIBSON DOMINATES

 

Last week at Target Field, Kyle Gibson gave up six earned runs on seven hits in just 2.2 innings against this Cleveland team. He felt he let his team down, and he used that as motivation in this game to be better.

 

The lanky right-hander threw six shutout innings on Wednesday afternoon. He gave up just four hits, walked two and struck out nine, a number he had reached just one time earlier in the season.

 

Gibson gave the Twins exactly what they needed.

 

WHAT'S NEXT?

 

Mike Pelfrey takes the mound for the Twins in Game 2 against Cleveland. In his most recent start, last Friday night at Detroit, he gave up just one run on six hits in five innings. He struck out seven without issuing a walk. Generally speaking, we can tell pretty early what Pelfrey will do. If he can pitch like he did on Friday, the Twins have a chance.

 

WILD CARD RACE

 

As Game 2 is about to start, the Twins are now just one game behind the Los Angeles Angels and 1/2 game behind the Houston Astros. They are both playing tonight as well.

 

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Keep it coming Seth and John! We ask and you guys deliver! Format is fun! Let's see what we can do in game 2!

Wait.............Rosario walked?

It could be just me, but the Twins seem to have been hitting very well lately off "hard throwers with good stuff" and hitting a bit worse against "pitch to contact types" Kluber, Sale and Carrasco are the examples that immediately come to mind. If this is a trend, it couldn't happen at a better time (especially if the Twins happen to make the playoffs)

 

Mauer looked great in game one, hopefully he has like two more games like that in him the rest of this regular season.

Its great watching Buxton starting to see some success! I hope his last 2 starts arent a fluke, and something is starting to click!

That Buxton HR was impressive. Even more impressive was his speed getting out of the box. His strides are ridiculous.

thanks for this write up. Very fun read.

The Cleveland announcers were talking about Buxton being on first, and they said "he looks like he's about four strides from second base the way he runs."

 

 

 

The Cleveland announcers were talking about Buxton being on first, and they said "he looks like he's about four strides from second base the way he runs."

I wonder how many "routine ground balls" he's going to beat out in his career?