Article: My Twins Award Ballot

[John Bonnes]

I don’t have a lot of patience for debates surrounding end-of-year awards. Too often, it becomes a platform for arguing about methodology instead of appreciating the players. But when Seth asks a bunch of us for our end-of-year choices, I’m obliged to reply. He’ll give the overall results next week, but here's the ballot I'm sending to him, as well as my reasoning.MVP

• Miguel Sano
• Brian Dozier
• Torii Hunter
• Kyle Gibson
• Joe Mauer

I’m sure this is blasphemy for some, seeing as Sano has only played for the second half of the year. But I’m right, and you’re wrong. His raw numbers are historically good. His impact offensively in games via WPA dwarfs every other batter on the team. And he is the most rare and valuable of commodities for a Twins fan. His presence in the lineup is something that the Twins haven’t had since … certainly since Kirby Puckett and maybe since Harmon Killebrew. Besides, none of the other guys did much for more than half a year, either. But since I need to give Seth four more….

 

Dozier still leads the team in OPS among qualified hitter, and his first half was spectacular. Hunter does get some extra credit for his leadership and his overall production in the Twins lineup would arguably put him in the top five anyway. Gibson separated himself from the rest of the starters this year. And in a close race, Mauer gets the wild card last spot, because, he has been clutch this year, more than any player besides Sano. And that’s objective, not subjective. If you don’t recognize it, maybe that’s on you.

 

 

Best Pitcher

• Kyle Gibson
• Glen Perkins
• Kevin Jepsen

There hasn’t been a lot of separation from the pack for the starting pitchers, but Gibson leads the rotation in ERA and IP, so I don’t know who else I’ll give it too. Perkins’ second half has been dismal, but he still has 32 of the Twins 44 saves, so he still gets the nod as the best bullpen guy. But Jepsen makes the list too, and is a close second to Perkins. He not only served in an important role, he did so at the most important of times.

 

Finally, Trevor May gets an honorable mention here. He threw comparable numbers to the other starting pitchers and showed the flexibility to jump into the ‘pen and carry it for a good third of the season.

 

 

Rookie

• Miguel Sano
• Tyler Duffey
• Eddie Rosario

Sano, duh.

 

I’ll go with Duffey second even though he wasn’t around all year. Like Sano, his impact was just so dominant in the time since he arrived. That puts Eddie Rosario, who has been the most consistent productive rookie on the team, in third place. If you want to list him higher than Duffey, I won’t argue too much.

 

 

Most Improved

• Eduardo Escobar
• Aaron Hicks
• Mike Pelfrey

I might be playing a favorite, or possibly wishcasting a bit, I’ll admit. But I never saw this coming from Eduardo Escobar. He’ll fall about 50 plate appearances short of “qualifying” but he would have the second highest OPS on the team while playing a premium defensive position. He wins.

 

I thought Aaron Hicks had a chance to become good, but I didn’t see it happening this early. A 722 OPS while playing very well defensively in center field (+5.8 UZR) is great news for someone who was left behind when the team went north in April.

 

Speaking of guys whose role changed as the season began, I’m giving the third place nod to Mike Pelfrey over Tommy Milone. Pelfrey, if you haven’t noticed, is second on the team in innings pitched and is still posting an ERA around 4.00. He’s been the Twins second best starting pitcher and I should point out that FanGraphs lists his value as being that of a $15.9M pitcher. (That is not a typo.)

 

Milone should get an honorable mention He fought through a demotion and a couple of injuries to become a solid contributor at the back of the bullpen. For a guy who had an ERA over 7 for the Twins last year, that’s a remarkable improvement.

 

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[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I agree completely. Sano is MVP. 

 

His net WPA, when prorated through an entire season, rates about 6th or 7th in the majors. That's Miguel Cabrera, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout territory. And the homer in Kansas City could become one of those iconic home runs we remember for years (after the championships have been won).

 

I disagree on ROY, however. I think rookie of the year is Eddie Rosario. I just think what Rosario brought to the outfield and of course his hitting was just as valuable overall as what Sano contributed.  

 

(Don't ask me how that works, rating Sano the team MVP but only the second best rookie ) 

[stringer bell]

Sano is already a fine player, but I don't think he's the MVP or Twins Rookie of the Year. My vote for MVP is Dozier, Rookie of the Year Rosario and Pitcher of the Year would be Gibson.

[Nick Nelson]

And in a close race, Mauer gets the wild card last spot, because, he has been clutch this year, more than any player besides Sano. And that’s objective, not subjective. If you don’t recognize it, maybe that’s on you.

 

I mean, the flip side of his big numbers with runners on that is he hit .227/.282/.335 with nobody on, and had more than twice as many plate appearances with the bases empty. The fact that he was so nonfunctional as a table setter while hitting at the top of the lineup certainly offsets the value of his clutch hitting to a large degree. I don't think WPA fully encapsulates that. 

 

How can you acknowledge at one point in the article that Escobar has the second-highest OPS on the team as a shortstop, yet have him below Mauer and Hunter on your ballot?

[Brandon]

Doesn't May still qualify as a rookie this year? He has to be at top of atlas the pitchers. Wasn't he statistically speaking our best starter when he was moved to the pen?

[Brandon]

Also I like that there are several deserving.candidates for.twins rookie of the year.

[Thegrin]

MVP - None of the above.  This is about a team rising above their individual yearlong stats.

 

Pitcher - None of the above.  No consistency from any of them. Jepsom not here long enough.

 

Rookie - Rosario only because he was here longer than Sano or Duffy

 

Improved - Hicks.  I hate this choice because I still am a Hicks hater (and will be next year too, unless he follows up with the same kind of numbers he had this year.) 

[Shane Wahl]

MVP: Sano, Dozier, Gibson, Plouffe, Hunter

Rookie: Sano, Rosario, Duffey

Pitcher: Gibson, Perkins, May

Most Improved: Escobar, Hicks, Milone

[Vanimal46]

I agree with John that Sano is the run away MVP and ROY. Any other year and it would be Rosario as ROY. But I wholeheartedly believe the Twins would have been a 70-75 win team without his contributions.

[DaveW]

I don't see how you have Hunter and Mauer over guys like Escobar and Hicks, two guys that solved long standing issues at their respective positions, but also played very well overall (and amazing during a stretch that got the Twins back "in the hunt")

 

MVP

Sano

Dozier

(Power Gap)

Hicks

Escobar

Rosario

Perkins

(Power Gap)

Gibson

Duffey

May

 

ROY:

Sano

Rosario

Duffey

 

Cy Young:
Perkins

 

 

Edited September 30, 2015 by DaveW

[HitInAPinch]

I'm a firm believer that a MVP should be a full-season player.  If we don't hold true to that, then is Tyler Duffey a Cy Young candidate?  Of course not.

 

MVP:  Dozier.  He carried the team when few others could have.

ROY: Rosario.  Year long production on both offense and defense. 

Best Starting Pitcher:  I really don't know.  Of all the full-time starters this year, I'd say Gibson.  A season long starter with a .500 record and an ERA under 4.00.

Best Relief Pitcher:  Perkins.  If the Twins keep running him out there in the 1st half like they did, get used to the 1/2 year success.

Most Improved:  Hicks.  You can't really say Escobar, because he produced like this last year, when he was the starting SS.  Hicks, sent down a 3rd time, got his head and swing together and produced, well, better than he had and show a lot more confidence.

 

[DaveW]

 

 

I agree with John that Sano is the run away MVP and ROY. Any other year and it would be Rosario as ROY. But I wholeheartedly believe the Twins would have been a 70-75 win team without his contributions.

Agreed, I can think of like 8 games off the top of my head where I just know that the Twins would have lost without Sano.

[Mike Sixel]

MVP:  Dozier.  He carried the team when few others could have.

ROY: Rosario.  Year long production on both offense and defense. 

Best Starting Pitcher:  I really don't know.  Of all the full-time starters this year, I'd say Gibson.  A season long starter with a .500 record and an ERA under 4.00.

Best Relief Pitcher:  Perkins.  If the Twins keep running him out there in the 1st half like they did, get used to the 1/2 year success.

Most Improved:  Hicks.  You can't really say Escobar, because he produced like this last year, when he was the starting SS.  Hicks, sent down a 3rd time, got his head and swing together and produced, well, better than he had and show a lot more confidence.

this is either identical for me, or I move Sano into ROY. Especially the improved part, this is what Escobar did last year, pretty much. What changed is that the Twins brass finally figured that out.....

 

And no way Hunter is more valuable to this roster than Escobar, imo.

[ThejacKmp]

Disagreements:

 

1) Sano can be the team MVP, I am down with that.  The reasoning not so much. If you had said that Sano’s presence in the lineup was unprecedented except for Harmon I would take that on the narrow focus that the Twins haven’t had that 40HR threat since Harmon.  But saying since Kirby? Kirby wasn’t a power hitter so you’re not going on power. That means you are severely underselling Mauer and Morneau’s performance in the 2000s. Both of them were fearsome presences in the middle of the lineup (and both have years with better OPS than anything Kirby put up and more than anything Sano has done in a half year).

2) Torii Hunter??? I mean, unless he taught Aaron Hicks how to hit it’s an insane tribute to his “leadership”.  Like he should be manager.  Rosario has been significantly better at the plate (more XBHs in 100 less at bats, better OPS) and is a markedly better defender (not just because people run on him and he kills them dead but because he has better range, arm etc.)

3) I love Joey more than anyone but Eduardo Escobar belongs on this list.  He’s played 122 games and has hit better than Joe while playing a premium defensive position.  He also plays a position where the Twins would have no one else, whereas Joey playing first base keeps other strong candidates from playing.

 

Should be:

 

Sano
Dozier
Rosario
Gibson (I guess, I can't get excited about too many pitchers but if you want Gibby, that's fine by me)
Escober

[stringer bell]

Hicks is my most improved. It shows how bad he was when this year's stats are considered so good. I still have questions whether he will ever hit enough to be a regular corner outfielder, but he has established that he can hit and field well enough to be a starting center fielder.

[jimbo92107]

This is one of those seasons where individual awards seem particularly silly, almost like Torii Hunter's whimsical dance awards. So many different guys have contributed in various ways and at various times, any one of them decided games that could have eliminated the Twins from the late-season contention we're enjoying right now.

 

That said, I like Eddie Rosario for team rookie of the year because he has provided such a steady, high level of competitiveness since the first day he stepped on the field. I see multiple All-Star games in his future.

 

For MVP, I go with Torii Hunter for bringing together a team of such volatility and forming one positive spirit.

 

For pitcher of the year I go with Kyle Gibson. He's been the closest thing to a rock of stability in an ever-changing starting rotation. He's an innings-eating horse, a great fielder, and he's developing into a consistent threat to shut down opponents for 7 innings or more.

[SoCalTwinsfan]

Escobar went from a 102 OPS+ to a 104 OPS+ and is most improved? Hicks went from 76 to 96. I think you've got to give it to him. Or maybe going off the board and give it to Gibson, who went from an 87 ERA+ to a 105.

[John Bonnes]

Good feedback. I wish I had time to respond to it all. A couple of quick shots:

 

Mauer - You can have a lower OPS and still have a bigger impact on games than someone. Whenever I see a comment like "WPA isn't right about this" without a reason why it isn't right, I see it as "I don't like WPA because it contradicts my paradigm." But that should be a starting point. Mauer has not been a table-setter, but he has been an awfully productive contributor offensively because of his opportunism. There is just no way around it. (Now, that doesn't mean anything for next year.)

 

Hicks most improved over Escobar? Maybe. But coming out of last year, I think the league, the team and fans all thought that was a fluke. And this year he's a legitimate stud. I'm not so sure that Hicks won't also be viewed as a bit of a fluke at the end of this year. So maybe he needs one more breakthrough year.

 

Hunter - I'm giving him credit for leadership. I don't know why we feel it is important in other aspects of life but not with a baseball team. Some guys just make the guys around them better sometimes. And when everyone in that clubhouse says that is the case, then that's enough evidence for me.

 

If May was still a rookie.....he probably makes that list. But I don't know who he pushes off. Any other year, I'd be thrilled with Rosario as ROY. That there are two guys that I think have had an even bigger impact is amazing. That there could be a third is crazy.

[Winston Smith]

I don't see how Dozier can be the MVP. The second half when his team is trying to make a playoff push and he has a .212/.284/.368/.652 line with an ops+ of 77.

That's not what an MVP does in a playoff race, imo.

I'd vote for Sano, everything Dozier hasn't been in the 2nd half Sano has been.

[jimmer]

Without Dozier's great first half, I doubt we would have had a 55% winning percentage.  I'm pretty sure with or without Sano's great second half performance, we'd still have a losing record in the 2nd half like we do now. :-)

[dougkoebernick]

Great comments and discussion by all. Very interesting takes. 

 

I have two thoughts: 1 - I'm torn between Dozier and Sano because it seemed like in the first half Dozier came through a lot - just like Sano came through in the second half. However, since Sano wasn't here to contribute in the first half I would give it to Dozier.

 

2 - It is rather remarkable that Minnesota is over .500 and fighting for a playoff spot when their best starting pitcher is 11-11. 

 

P.S. Don't trade Dozier

P.S.S. I am so looking forward to 2016 despite what happens this week.

 

GO TWINS! GO TWINS DAILY!!

[dougkoebernick]

One more thing - Eduardo Escobar is probably in the top 4 or 5 hitting shortstops in the American League - he gets my vote for the guy that we believed in the least and came through big time. 

 

[Platoon]

MVP Sano. Why? This teams offense was poor and getting worse when he arrived. It's been so long since we had a stick like this I don't think we knew what we were missing. Without him holding down the 4 hole this team would have been done two weeks ago.

 

ROY.... Co winners. Duffy because without him, there would be no playoff game this evening. And Rosario, because he gave us a second above average defensive player in the OF, and had a lot of big hits. His strike zone discipline can be cringe inducing, but so can his triples to the opposition.

 

Most improved. Hicks in a landslide. Escobar was the starting SS last year, and ended up the starting SS this year. Hicks was what last year?? Vs what this year. That's not even close.

 

Most valuable pitcher. May. Pretty good starter, then moved to the bullpen for reasons that could be debated, but won't be here. Adjusted well and was the type of 8th inning guy we need, and likely still would be if his hip/back were healthy. Gibson a very close second. On a side note, Mays comments about his back a starter vs as a reliever might preclude his return to the pen next year.

[Mike Sixel]

First part of the year, when Dozier was hot...winning percentage?

 

Since Sano came up.....winning percentage?

 

Sano added no value for more than half the year, I can't see how he is MVP. It's almost like all those May wins only count for Hunter and his leadership, but not anyone else.