Article: Twins Notes: Top Ten Plays

[John Bonnes]

It isn’t just the Twins postseason hopes that are in need of medical attention - the Twins players are too. You can also include my heart in that list if I have to put up with another week of games like the 4-2 win over Cleveland last night. For a complete breakdown, check out Seth’s game story. Instead, we’ll dive into the top ten plays of the game in chronological order, along with what you need to know about each one.Top of the 1^st Inning

#2 – Miguel Sano doubles, scoring Mauer for the Twins to take a 1-0 lead.(+10.9%)

#1 – Trevor Plouffe homers, driving in Sano to give the Twins a 3-0 lead. (+17.0%)

 

The two biggest plays of the game happened within the first five at-bats. That’s both good and bad news. It means the Twins jumped on Cleveland starting pitcher Corey Kluber early, but it also means they were awfully quiet later. The Twins “two-out ambush” - as manager Paul Molitor labeled it - was accomplished entirely by the Twins three best hitters this year with runners in scoring position: Mauer (.935 OPS with RISP) doubled, Sano (1.011 OPS with RISP) did too and Plouffe. (944 OPS with RISP) hit his 22^nd home run. Call it luck or a brilliant batting order or clutch-erific clutchiness; it worked tonight.

 

Bottom of the 1^st Inning

#4 – Francisco Lindor homers, drawing the Indians with two runs, 3-1. (-8.7%)

 

As encouraging as the top of the first inning was, the Twins were still starting a pitcher who had recently been out with a sore shoulder and hadn’t started a game the last two turns through the rotation. Plus, he got knocked around silly in that start, lasting just 1.1 innings.

 

If Milone’s shoulder was still bothering him, it didn’t show. He was aggressive, and after that 3-2 home run he gave up to Lindor, he retired 14 of his next 16 batters. The Twins said last week he would come out of the bullpen the rest of the year, but this raises the question: could he help out this stretched rotaion? Here’s how the next few games look:

 

Download attachment: Last Week Probables.jpg

 

I’m sure there will be those who say Milone should start over Pelfrey, but the guy I’m most worried about is Phil Hughes, who doesn’t have his velocity back yet. Could Milone take Hughes’ (presumed) Saturday start and give Hughes a good two weeks to recover? Could Milone pitch a Game 163 versus the Angels, who have struggled against left-handed pitching this year? Could Hughes take Duffey’s start to save the Twins some innings on his arm? And what of Gibson’s last few starts? Could he use a couple of extra days of recovery?

 

As positively as tonight’s start impacted the Twins playoff hopes, I wonder if the flexibility of having Milone back won’t be more impactful in the future.

 

Top of the 2^nd Inning

#9 – Torii Hunter doubles to right field to lead off the second inning. (+4.7%)

#7 – Torii Hunter picked off of second base (-6.4%)

 

Ugh. It looks like the umpires blew this call and it isn’t clear the Twins coaching staff didn’t, too. Hunter was originally called safe getting back to the bag but the call was reversed upon review. But there are two things about that review:

 

First, I personally didn’t think the review showed indisputable proof that he really was out. But maybe there was a camera angle I couldn’t see. But more damning was that a review isn’t supposed to happen after the pitcher is on the rubber and the batter is in the batter’s box. That happened. But the home plate umpire was looking to the Cleveland dugout and didn’t see it and granted the review. Also, from watching it on television I didn’t see the Twins coaching staff objecting before the review took place.

 

By the way, credit Dick Bremer of Fox Sports North being all over that nuance of the call. I would not have noticed and it wasn’t clear anyone else associated with the broadcast did, either. He called it out, and FSN responded, showing exactly what he was talking about.

 

That pickoff play short-circuited a possible rally that could have drastically changed the game. It will mostly be forgotten after the win, but the Twins had runners on first and second base with no outs when it happened. Also, Kluber looked to be on the ropes. He ended up lasting six innings.

 

Top of the 4^th Inning

#10 – Eddie Rosario doubled to left to lead off the inning (+4.7%)

 

Rosario eventually came around to score on a Brian Dozier sacrifice fly to give the Twins a crucial insurance run. I just think it’s interesting that his initial hit improved the Twins chances of winning the game by 4.7%, while Dozier’s sac fly only improved their chances by 1.6%. That makes sense to me; the lead-off double is the hard part. The sac fly is just doing one’s job. But I wonder if most see it that way.

 

Bottom of the 6^th Inning

Jason Kipnis tripled to left to lead off the sixth inning. (-9.1%)

 

This is the hit that cost Milone his 10^th “quality start” of the season. He handled it well; Kipnis scored on the next batter to make the score 4-2, but Milone retired that batter and the one following. However Molitor, having watched Milone throw 82 pitches, decided he had pushed his luck enough. Blain Boyer came in to get the final out of the inning.

 

We probably aren’t giving Milone enough credit for the success he’s had this year. He lost about a month to a demotion to Rochester, where he absolutely dominated. He’s missed a little time to some injuries, but came back strong both times. He’s got a 4.04 ERA, has made 21 starts, threw 117 innings, and is within a couple of outs of having as many quality starts as Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey and Ervin Santana.

 

The biggest improvement in the Twins starting rotation is that they’ve been getting decent starts from the back of their rotation. Unlike previous years, they haven’t had fill-in players that were just getting hopelessly shelled, throwing away games. Milone, Trevor May and Duffey (and I suppose, to a lesser extent, even Ricky Nolasco) all get credit for that improvement.

 

Bottom of the 8^th Inning

Mike Aviles (vs. Glen Perkins) leads off the inning with a single to CF (-7.6%)

Jason Kipnis struck out looking (+6.5%)

Francisco Lindor struck out swingin (+5.0%)

 

We haven’t seen Glen Perkins in a game since Friday’s gut punch, but with May still not available (although he sounds close), Perkins came in to protect a 4-2 lead. It didn’t start well. But back-to-back strikeouts gave an optimistic feel to the outing. His pitches to Lindor, all of which were sliders, gave hope beyond just this one hold, especially that third one.

 

The Twins have plenty to overcome just to make the playoffs, let alone to advance beyond the wild card game and make a meaningful run. But getting May and Perkins back and healthy to join Kevin Jepsen (who was excellent again tonight) could go a long way to stealing some close games this postseason. This outing should have reminded Twins fans there is still promise on that front.

 

The plays and percentages in this story come from FanGraphs, an excellent resource for tracking the probability of your favorite team winning or losing a game, as well as seeing the impact of particular plays on the outcome of a game. Last night’s Twins win can be found here.

 

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[mickeymental]

i'd say #1 is good ol' joe mauer's two-out double, without which none of the rest might have happened.

[John Bonnes]

Since you asked, Mauer's 2-out double that started the scoring in the 1st inning was #27, adding 2.2% to the chances of the Twins winning.

 

These aren't random numbers, by the way. For those who don't know much about WPA, they're generated from historically reviewing thousands of games and computing the results from those games. So in Mauer's case, it comes from this:

 

- A team that is tied in the top of the first with 2 outs and nobody on base has historically won 49.2% of games.

- A team that is tied in the top of the first with 2 outs and a runner on 2nd base has historically won 51.4% of games.

 

The difference between those situations is 2.2%, which is how much Mauer's double added to his team's chance of winning that game.

 

 

[TNTwinsFan]

John, great post game write-up! I really like this format (as I don't get to watch many games). Maybe Twins Daily could turn this into a regular thing next year but maybe just do the top 5 plays/bottom 5 plays after each game. It might take a lot of work, but its kind of in the same vein as the daily Minor League Report (and wouldn't be quite as long I would think). Fun format! Perhaps you guys could test it out this next week and into the playoffs (PLAYOFFS?!?) if the Twins make it?

[Seth Stohs]

I love this stuff... 

 

I think for individual games, WPA is fascinating. I'm not as convinced of its value for longer lengths of time because there are so many big moments throughout the course of a season and players are going to have good ones and bad ones. But, finding those key moments in any individual game are great. 

 

To mickeymental's point, if Mauer doesn't get on base, particularly double, nothing happens after that. Maybe he should get some of the WPA for Sano and Plouffe because they don't get their points if Mauer doesn't get his. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Regarding Joe Mauer - I think people look at his numbers and think, wow, he's not the player he used to be. They are right in thinking that, but at the same time he had that ridiculous on base streak this year, as well as plays like the two-out double last night that have helped the Twins score runs, take the lead, and win games. As his counting stats have diminished, I think he's still helping the team win.  

 

I don't buy into players being "clutch" or having some innate ability to come through in specific situations. At least, not in a way that is predictable or projectable. What I do buy into is the results that have actually happened this year. Mauer's performance with runners in scoring position this year has been great. His ability to get on base in front of Sano in the second half has been so valuable. He deserves scrutiny for the position he plays and payroll he commands, as well as the elite level of past performance, but I have to give the guy some credit for the role he's played in this team's success.

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

Another point... if the Twins get to a Game 163, I don't care who is scheduled to start. And then if they get to a playoff series, I don't care who is lined up for Game 1. If it's Pelfrey or Milone, I don't care. I'll be so happy. 

 

I'm happy already with this season. Anything more at this point will be bonus! There are 6 games to go and they are not eliminated. This is fun!

[HitInAPinch]

The Twins are really sucking it up and stepping up!

[stringer bell]

Great point about the back end starters.  Looking solely at ERA, here is the Twins rotation:Gibson 3.96, Milone 4.04, Pelfrey 4.09, Santana 4.10, Hughes 4.43. No dominant starter for the season, but no embarrassments either.

 

I left Duffey and May off on purpose--too few innings, but they were both good (Duffey better than good) in their starts as well.

[John Bonnes]

 

John, great post game write-up! I really like this format (as I don't get to watch many games). Maybe Twins Daily could turn this into a regular thing next year but maybe just do the top 5 plays/bottom 5 plays after each game. It might take a lot of work, but its kind of in the same vein as the daily Minor League Report (and wouldn't be quite as long I would think). Fun format! Perhaps you guys could test it out this next week and into the playoffs (PLAYOFFS?!?) if the Twins make it?

 

Thanks. I like playing with this format. Not sure the best way to do it, and it feels like I haven't found it just yet, but it's fun to try.

[John Bonnes]

By the way, was I the only one who thought the video review of that pickoff play call wasn't conclusive?

[Seth Stohs]

 

By the way, was I the only one who thought the video review of that pickoff play call wasn't conclusive?

 

When they broke it into super-slow motion, I thought it was pretty clear that he was out.

 

I also believe that if you have to go to super-slow motion to review a call, the umpire shouldn't be penalized (if they even are) in any way for missing it. 

[jokin]

 

 

 

To mickeymental's point, if Mauer doesn't get on base, particularly double, nothing happens after that. Maybe he should get some of the WPA for Sano and Plouffe because they don't get their points if Mauer doesn't get his. 

 

And especially because "Mauer got his" on a first pitch fat one- the type of pitch he typically lays off of- and often becomes the most hittable pitch in the AB-  and ends up driving fans crazy.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

When they broke it into super-slow motion, I thought it was pretty clear that he was out.

 

I also believe that if you have to go to super-slow motion to review a call, the umpire shouldn't be penalized (if they even are) in any way for missing it.

 

yep, I'd even go one further and say if you have to go to frame-by-frame super slo-mo, you are abusing the spirit of replay.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Also, Gladden was blaming Hunter getting picked off second on Escobar not laying down a sacrifice bunt on a strike pitch. "Torii thought Escobar was going to bunt that, so Torii took an extended lead off second."

 

Umm, no.

 

Unless Molitor and the Twins have created something they call "the suicide sacrifice" to advance base runners.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I also agree with above posters. I know there is data behind it, but it intuitively does not make sense that Sano's double was statistically 5 times more important that Mauer's double.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

To mickeymental's point, if Mauer doesn't get on base, particularly double, nothing happens after that. Maybe he should get some of the WPA for Sano and Plouffe because they don't get their points if Mauer doesn't get his. 

Mauer's double was obviously nice, but in terms of WPA, no, he should not get credit for what followed.  With 2 outs and nobody on, Mauer had very little risk of negative WPA in his plate appearance.  Sano and Plouffe had the risk of stranding a runner at second.

 

WPA is an opportunity stat, like RBI, just have to keep that in mind.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Mauer's double was obviously nice, but in terms of WPA, no, he should not get credit for what followed.  With 2 outs and nobody on, Mauer had very little risk of negative WPA in his plate appearance.  Sano and Plouffe had the risk of stranding a runner at second.

 

WPA is an opportunity stat, like RBI, just have to keep that in mind.

Considering RBI's reputation among the SABR crowd, what should we think of WPA then? I really like WPA but it just doesn't square up sometimes. Like I said above, Sano's 2B doesn't seem like it should be that much more valuable than Mauer's.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Considering RBI's reputation among the SABR crowd, what should we think of WPA then? I really like WPA but it just doesn't square up sometimes. Like I said above, Sano's 2B doesn't seem like it should be that much more valuable than Mauer's.

The "SABR crowd" generally doesn't think that much of WPA except as a fun toy as John uses it here, charting the path of a game.

 

It's an opportunity stat, although one nice thing about it compared to RBI is it works negatively too.  If Mauer grounded out there instead of doubling, he would have seen a tiny negative WPA penalty.  But if Sano grounded out after Mauer's double, he would have seen a larger negative WPA penalty.  In terms of WPA, with greater opportunity comes greater risks and greater rewards.

 

Another benefit over RBI is setting up a run has some value, even if as we see in the Mauer example it's not as big as actually driving in the run (although in later innings the two events are probably closer in value).

Edited September 29, 2015 by spycake

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

Also, Gladden was blaming Hunter getting picked off second on Escobar not laying down a sacrifice bunt on a strike pitch. "Torii thought Escobar was going to bunt that, so Torii took an extended lead off second."

Umm, no.

Unless Molitor and the Twins have created something they call "the suicide sacrifice" to advance base runners.

Escobar squared to bunt and then pulled the bat back (at least according to the radio, I couldn't see the play), and Gladden's point was that Hunter was reacting to Escobar squaring around to bunt, took a few steps too many towards third in anticipation of contact, then got himself hung out to dry.

My impression of the exchange was that Gladden blamed Hunter for getting himself out, however he could see why Hunter would think a play was on. Still Hunter's fault for being too far from 2nd to get back in time.

 

I do think that Gladden hates it when players square around to bunt and then pull the bat back. He's said similar things many times this year about needed to actually try to bunt the ball if you square around (and the bunt is the play called) because if you don't it shows your cards to the other team and basically removes the option from the equation. Plus things like Hunter getting picked off can happen because the runners on base don't know you are bluffing any more than the fielders on the other team do.

 

 

[davidc3915]

I really enjoyed this article. Thanks so much, John!

 

I am making it my goal for the week to make the phrase "clutch-errific clutchiness" a part of my vocabulary!

[TNTwinsFan]

Thanks. I like playing with this format. Not sure the best way to do it, and it feels like I haven't found it just yet, but it's fun to try.

Maybe include some video/gif to illustrate your points? I guess were getting into more of a key play-by-play analysis much like I would expect from BIG NAMED NETWORKS of which we shall not speak their names. I'm sure you guys get enough of it on FoxSports North (oops) but I dont get that while on the road or even at home in the great state of Tennessee. I come to Twins Daily for all Twins news and analysis because you guys really are the best at it! Ever think about a live TV/Radio show where you guys break down games from both the MLB Team and the affiliates? Obviously that's pretty resource intensive, and I'm not sure of the demand, but, I would buy the subscription in a heartbeat!

Edited September 29, 2015 by TNTwinsFan