Article: A Critical Series In Cleveland

[Nick Nelson]

For the Indians, it's an opportunity to leapfrog Minnesota in the AL Central standings and make a late push for a longshot playoff berth. For the Twins, it's a chance to remain within striking distance of the Angels and Astros, setting up a potentially crucial series at home against the Royals this weekend.

 

Whichever side you're viewing it from, the four-game series that gets underway in Cleveland on Monday night carries huge implications.State of the Indians

 

In their third year under manager Terry Francona, the Indians have basically been as expected, pairing great pitching and defense with an occasionally suspect offense. In Kansas City on Sunday, they didn't manage to get a hit on the board until Francisco Lindor bunted for a single in the seventh inning.

 

Prior to that, Cleveland had won three straight contests. They have played a whopping 22 consecutive games against AL Central opponents, and their 13-9 record during that stretch has enabled them to climb back into the race. As you'll see in the pitching match-up breakdowns, they've got some starters that are rolling along nicely at this point.

 

Rookie Rumble

 

Some years, Eddie Rosario's numbers would make him a Rookie of the Year front-runner. But not in 2015, the Year of the Rookie. Rosario will finish behind his teammate, Miguel Sano, in the voting, and both will likely end up below the Indians shortstop Lindor.

 

The eighth overall pick in the 2011 draft, Lindor has developed just as Cleveland had hoped, rapidly ascending the minors and debuting in the majors at age 21. He has flashed his dynamic athleticism in all phases of the game, batting .320/.358/.485 with 10 homers, 21 doubles, four triples and nine steals on 11 attempts. He's pesky.

 

Manship Sailing Along

 

In the first six seasons of his big-league career, including four with Minnesota, Jeff Manship posted a 6.46 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. But now he has found new life in the Indians bullpen. The righty has allowed only 20 hits in 37 innings of work, and owns a 0.97 ERA. He hasn't given up a run since August 22nd.

 

No Place Like Home?

 

The Indians have home field advantage this week, but that hasn't really been much of an advantage for them this year. They are 35-38 with a 4.12 team ERA at Progressive Field, compared to 42-39 and 3.39 on the road. The Twins, conversely, have played much better at home but have won three straight series on the road.

 

PITCHING MATCH-UPS

 

Monday, 6:10 PM: Phil Hughes vs. Corey Kluber

 

These two faced off last Wednesday, in a game that the Twins won after ambushing Kluber for four runs in the fourth inning. Hughes was at his best in that game, making up for diminished velocity by consistently hitting his spots and peppering the fringes of the strike zone.

 

The reigning AL Cy Young winner, Kluber is enjoying another excellent season, but he hasn't looked particularly sharp in either of his outings since returning from a two-week absence due to a hamstring strain.

 

Tuesday, 6:10 PM: Kyle Gibson vs. Cody Anderson

 

Gibson did not rise to the challenge in his biggest start of the year last week, coughing up six runs in 2 2/3 innings, but now he'll get another shot. He had a 2.75 ERA with zero homers allowed in his previous six starts, so he'll need to rediscover that form.

 

Anderson has had a very nice month of September, with a 4-0 record and 1.69 ERA. He held the Twins to one run over 6 2/3 innings last Thursday, though he flirted with trouble by allowing 10 hits. The rookie has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his 14 starts for Cleveland.

 

Wednesday, 6:10 PM: Mike Pelfrey vs. Carlos Carrasco

 

This match-up is a scary one for the Twins. Pelfrey came up big in his last start, holding the Tigers to one run over five innings in Detroit, but in general he's been terrible on the road this year, with a 5.60 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Pelf was shelled in his last start at Cleveland back in early August, surrendering seven runs on nine hits in 3 2/3 innings

 

Carrasco has quietly emerged as one of the best starting pitchers in the American League. His numbers (180 IP, 14-10, 3.44 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 211/41 K/BB) ought to put him in the Cy Young conversation. He's coming off the best start of his career, a one-hit shutout over the Royals in which he tallied 15 strikeouts.

 

Thursday, 6:10 PM: Tyler Duffey vs. Josh Tomlin

 

Tomlin joined the Indians rotation in mid-August and has picked up wins in six of his nine starts since, registering a 3.03 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Duffey has had a similarly dramatic impact on the Twins' rotation since stepping in around the same time, notching victories in five of his nine starts. Their formulas are quite different – Tomlin a control artist who leans heavily on his fastball and cutter, Duffey unleashing his big curveball at an MLB-leading 37.8 percent clip – but their results have been similar. This should be a good tilt, and depending on what happens in the three games preceding it, the stakes could be very high.

 

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[nater79a]

Tough stretch right here for the Twins against the Tribe. Meanwhile, the Angels are hosting the A's for three. At least the Angels are facing Sonny Gray on Wednesday if I'm reading the pitching probables correctly.

 

Frankly, I'm more concerned about the Halos right now than the Astros. Houston finishes with six on the road where they've been brutal this year.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

. At least the Angels are facing Sonny Gray on Wednesday if I'm reading the pitching probables correctly.

 

I think I heard that Gray has been shut down for the year.

[BK432]

 

I think I heard that Gray has been shut down for the year.

 

Not official yet but likely.

 

Last week of the season and we have meaningful games! Enjoy!

[Circus Boy]

Hitting, pitching, defense. Time for all those to come together for the last week of the regular season. Heck, just competing to get into the playoffs feels like the playoffs. Can't wait.

[stringer bell]

I think I heard that Gray has been shut down for the year.

I wonder if the Tribe were 75-79 if Kluber would be pitching.

[IndyTwinsFan]

Let's just enjoy these next 7 games, no matter how the wild card situation plays itself out.   Hopefully, it plays itself out in a positive manner for us.

[stringer bell]

 

Let's just enjoy these next 7 games, no matter how the wild card situation plays itself out.   Hopefully, it plays itself out in a positive manner for us.

 

For sure! I think it will take a 6-1 or 7-0 week to make the playoffs. Most likely 6-1 might mean a Game 163. 5-2 might get them to a play-in game to the play-in game, but that is probably it.

[Matt Kummer]

I think the Twins have to go 5-2, minimum, to have even a shot at a Game 163. Doesn't guarantee anything. Should be a fun ride. I'm ecstatic that we are able to see the Twins play meaningful games and contending for a playoff spot in the last week of the season. It's been 5 LONG years.

[IndyTwinsFan]

 

For sure! I think it will take a 6-1 or 7-0 week to make the playoffs. Most likely 6-1 might mean a Game 163. 5-2 might get them to a play-in game to the play-in game, but that is probably it.

As much as I hope it won't take at least 6 wins to get to the wild card game, I have a real hard time disagreeing with that assessment.

[drock2190]

I think Angels are the team that we have to be most concerned about.

[mickeymental]

 

I think Angels are the team that we have to be most concerned about.

might be able to agree if any of the twins final seven games were against the angels.

[blairpaul715]

I think we also need to go 6-1 these last 7 games, and no way we can win all 4 against Cleveland, afraid we will knock each other out here, one loss for Cleveland and they are done and a split here, I believe we will be done too.......But hoping for the best and meaningful baseball this close to October will make the offseason shorter .......I mean instead of thinking next yr in July we get to wait till Oct 1

Edited September 28, 2015 by blairpaul715

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think the first game is huge - if the Twins can knock Cleveland out of contention, it could drastically alter the strategy of the team no longer in the race.

 

"Critical Series" and "final week of the season" are such nice things to read in tandem about the Twins.

[Kwak]

 

I think Angels are the team that we have to be most concerned about.

Actually, it's the Indians.  The Twins have no impact on the Angels (and vice versa) but Cleveland does!  These games will also serve as statement games for the future.

[TwinsCD]

 

Actually, it's the Indians.  The Twins have no impact on the Angels (and vice versa) but Cleveland does!  These games will also serve as statement games for the future.

 

Totally agree.  Can't control the Angels.  Just have to hope to get help in that department.  And if the Twins don't take care of Cleveland, it won't make any difference anyway.

 

It's September 28th and there's meaningful baseball in our world.  That's a terrific concept.

[Vanimal46]

Hope that Hughes can find a little bit of that Brad Radke magic considering the decreased velocity... Not to be a debbie downer but it's a tough hill to climb when 2 out of our next 3 starters are on the "hope for 5 and pull" track....

[ScrapTheNickname]

It would appear that we won't be eliminated until October. That is some way is a feat that can soothe us in January.

 

Then again it ain't over until it's over. If we win 7, or 6, or even 5 (as others have said), we'll remain in the thick of it.

Edited September 28, 2015 by ScrapTheNickname

[Dantes929]

I know the Angels have been hot.  They have won 8 of 10 which accounts almost entirely for their above .500 record.   They have been a .500 team all year and even with their good play lately their most likely results are 4-3.  Houston being a poor road team and having played mostly .500 ball also, their most likely record will be 3-3.  If this happens the Twins need to go 5-2.    This is actually the least likely to happen so again, if asked if I would take my chances with 5-2 right now I would bank it.    I will not dismiss the possibility of 4-3 being enough.    That would mean Angels going 3-4 and the Astros going 2-4.   These are not likelihoods but hardly far fetched.  

[Danchat]

Phil Hughes just got scratched due to an illness. Tommy Milone will start today instead of Hughes. He'll go up against Kluber.

 

This should be interesting...

[Old Twins Cap]

Luckily the Twins don't have to win 7 or 6 or 5.

 

They only have to win tonight.  The rest takes care of itself.

[Kwak]

 

Phil Hughes just got scratched due to an illness. Tommy Milone will start today instead of Hughes. He'll go up against Kluber.

 

This should be interesting...

Apparently he wasn't injured.