Article: Lurking In The Shadows

[Seth Stohs]

Eddie Rosario is having one of the best rookie seasons in Minnesota Twins history. He won’t be the American League Rookie of the Year. In fact, he may not even win the Twins top rookie award following the season. However, the emergence of Eddie Rosario in 2015 has been vital to the Twins success.The Twins used their fourth round pick in 2010 to take Rosario, a high school kid out of the mean streets of Guayama, Puerto Rico. He signed quickly and went to the GCL. He teamed with the likes of Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Kennys Vargas and Miguel Sano. Rosario hit a solid .294/.343/.438 (.781) with nine doubles, two triples and five home runs, but Miguel Sano was the player talked about.

 

In 2011, he advanced to Elizabethton where he performed so well he was named the Appalachian Leaguer’s Player of the Year. He and Sano teamed to hit 41 home runs in the short season. Rosario hit .337/.397/.670 (1.068) with nine doubles, nine triples and 21 home runs. Sano hit .292/.352/.637 (.988) with 18 doubles, seven triples and 20 home runs.

 

While Sano came into the organization as a top prospect. Rosario has been a Top 10 Twins prospect since that monster season in Elizabethton.

 

In 2012, the duo advanced to Beloit for their first full-season action. Sano, just 19 then, hit .258/.373/.521 (.893) with 28 homers and 100 RBI on the season. Rosario was limited to just 95 games because he was hit in the face with a line drive during batting practice. He was taking ground balls at third base at the time. He hit .296/.345/.490 (.835) with 32 doubles, four triples and 12 home runs. As you recall, he had gone to the Instructional League after the 2011 season and moved to second base. It was certainly a work-in-progress, but he made improvements throughout the season. Of course, when the Snappers went to the playoffs, Rosario was right back in center field where his defense was always above average.

 

Before the 2013 season, Rosario was named a representative of the team from Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. He played left field most of that tournament.

 

Sano and Rosario advanced to Ft. Myers to start the 2013 season. The Miracle had a terrific team. They clinched a first-half title about a week before the Florida State League All-Star Game. The day after they clinched a playoff berth, Rosario and Sano were promoted to AA New Britain. In their half-season with the Miracle, they both put up big numbers. Sano hit .330/.424/.655 (1.079) with 15 doubles, two triples and 16 home run. Rosario hit .329/.377/.527 (.903) with 13 doubles, five triples and six home runs.

 

With the Rock Cats, Sano hit .236/.344/.571 (.915) with 15 double and 19 home runs. Meanwhile, Rosario hit .284/.330/.412 (.742), solid for a 21-year-old.

 

In the fall, Rosario went to the Arizona Fall League. He hit just .238/.262/.275 (.537) in 20 games there. His on-field performance was the least of the concerns. When the AFL came to a close, Rosario returned to Puerto Rico and told his Puerto Rico Winter League GM that he was going to be suspended by MLB for PED usage. A month later, MLB announced that he was being suspended for a Drug of Abuse.

 

Fast forward to spring of 2014. Sano missed the full season after having Tommy John surgery in March, and Rosario did not go to spring training. The Twins had excused him. He also had to miss the first 50 games of the season. Upon his return, he began with eight games in Ft. Myers before jumping back up to New Britain. This time with the Rock Cats, he hit just .237/.277/.396 over the final 79 games.

 

Fortunately, he was able to go back to the Arizona Fall League where he hit an impressive .330/.345/.410 (.755) with six extra base hits. The hope was that it would springboard him to a big 2015 season.

 

Rosario had a good showing at MLB spring training. Though his numbers were pretty similar to those he put up in New Britain in 2014, new manager Paul Molitor talked about how impressed he was with him defensively and how well he held his own against lefties. Still, he started this season in Rochester. The 23-year-old struggled in his AAA-debut. He hit just .242/.280/379 (.659) in 23 games with the Red Wings.

 

When Oswaldo Arcia went on the disabled list the first week of May, it was Rosario who was called up from Rochester, not Aaron Hicks. Reports came out indicating that they wanted Aaron Hicks to continue hitting as he had been and that because it would be just a two-week stint with the Twins, it would be a good opportunity for Rosario. As you know, however, if a player comes up and gets the job done, he has the ability to stick.

 

And that’s exactly what Eddie Rosario did. In fact, he has continued to be productive ever since and has become a fixture in the Twins lineup. He has far out-performed this minor league numbers the last two seasons. Now, in 113 games, he has hit .268/.290/.455 (.744) with 17 doubles, 14 triples, 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases.

 

Defensively, he has proven that he is an above average corner outfielder. Not only does he have great range, but he has a strong, accurate arm which has accounted for 14 outfield assists.

 

FanGraphs has him at 1.9 wins, a value of about $15.5 million. (Not bad for a guy making the league minimum for the next two seasons too.

 

Sure, he will need to work on a few things to take the next step in his career and continue to progress. The key will be to improve upon his 109 to 14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That will help him to improve on his .290 on-base percentage. Will he be able to make that progress?

 

There is reason for optimism that he can improve his numbers. He has struck out about 25% of the time in the big leagues. Through his minor league career, that number has been between 13% and 21%, so we could see a good reduction in strikeouts over time. More important, however, would be for him to take more walks. He is walking just 3.2% of the time this year in the big leagues. In his minor league career, he was never one to walk a lot, but he walked between 5% and 7% of his plate appearances. Not big numbers, but he could potentially double his walk output which would be huge.

 

It has been a very good rookie season for Eddie Rosario, but as has been the case throughout his entire minor league career, it has been completely overshadowed by Miguel Sano. The third baseman, who has primarily DHd for the Twins, has hit .282/.399/.563 (.962) with 16 doubles and 17 home runs in 69 games. Sano has just three fewer strikeouts in 150 less plate appearances than Rosario.

 

Sano is the one being touted in Rookie of the Year discussions along with Houston’s Carlos Correa and Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor. Meanwhile, Rosario continues to put up solid, all-around numbers with less fanfare.

 

That may be the case nationally, and somewhat locally, but I guarantee that the efforts of Eddie Rosario have not been overlooked by Paul Molitor and his coaching staff. It hasn’t gone unnoticed by the front office. And, I am certain that the pitching staff appreciates what he does in the outfield with his range and his arm.

 

Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano have been teammates for most of their young careers. Rosario has been in the shadows of Sano throughout that time, and yet, he has always been productive. He has been a big asset to the Minnesota Twins in 2015 and the goal will be for him to continue to improve over time. He may never get out from Sano’s large shadow, but he can be a long-time, productive big leaguer.

 

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[AlwaysinModeration]

I always liked that Rosario out homered Sano in Elizabethton.

 

I think Bruno should tell Rosario that he can't swing until he sees a strike.

[Dantes929]

 

I always liked that Rosario out homered Sano in Elizabethton.

I think Bruno should tell Rosario that he can't swing until he sees a strike.

Maybe 2 out of 3 times anyway.  He swung at every pitch Kluber threw and not even half of them were strikes.

[HitInAPinch]

IMO, I believe Molitor liked Rosario over more than just Hicks.  Molitor was really unhappy about Arcia, Sano and Vargas getting into a SP home run contest, when they should have been working on their mechanics.

 

Sure, he needs some tuning up, but my Rookie of the Year vote goes to Rosario.

 

BTW:  Great article!

Edited September 24, 2015 by HitInAPinch

[jmlease1]

Rosario is a real future is he learns to control the strike zone. He's got the skills to do it, but he needs to find the discipline. He's not going to have long-term success with an OBP under .300.

 

But his defense has been really fun to watch (last night's botch for a "double" not withstanding); it's been a real treat to watch him gun down runners and his range in the corners is exactly what this bunch of fly ball pitchers needs.

 

He's got the track record to suggest he can up the walks at least a little and cut down on the K's, so he should be able to hit enough to hold down an OF spot and the defense makes him a plus player. I think we've got someone locking down a position, which is what we wanted to get out of this season: locking in players for the future.

[gunnarthor]

Nice article, Seth. 

 

I think it's pretty clear that Molitor really likes Rosario and that Rosario has a pretty good competitive attitude that has helped him stay on an even keel in the majors.  The OBP has to improve - SIckels had a nice piece about Rosario a few weeks back - but I think it will.  I think I've been most surprised by his power playing so well up here.  That has really been fun to see.

[DaveW]

He is only 23, his plate discipline with improve with time. Against RHP I would actually move him up to 5th in the order behind Sano at this point. This off-season in addition to his plate discipline, I'd also like to see him work on his stealing of bases. I think with a little work he could be a 25/25 guy in a year or two.

 

Heading into 2016 it's really nice to know that there aren't very many "holes" to be found on the everyday playing roster (other than Catcher and potentially DH if Plouffe is traded)

Edited September 24, 2015 by DaveW

[jimbo92107]

I expect to see Eddie Rosario expand and refine his game much the same way that Brian Dozier has done, for they are similar characters. With Bruno's help Rosario should improve his situational awareness and ability to read pitchers. Molitor and company should teach him (along with the other young guys) how to better steal bases, bunt, etc.

 

When Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and the other young guns incorporate the finer aspects of the game, this team is going to be even more fun to watch. Goodie!

[Rosterman]

Rosario looks like a solid worker. He will listen and strive to improve. He needs to learn to NOT swing, but a lot of that comes with discipline, watching film, and letting the coaches crawl onto your back more often than not. He seems glad to be in the major leagues and is having fun playing ball.

 

[woody knows all]

I also am a big fan of Rosario.  But lets not place him as an all-star just yet.  Below are the stats for Rosario this year and Santana last year.  I think all of us had high hopes (again me included) for Santana.  Thought that he had to play everyday and was arguably the best player last year.  Really struggled and for whatever reason has not made it back. But as happens occasionally it doesn't work out year 2. Hopefully next year they both put up similar if not better numbers and the Twins will not be wondering IF they make the play-offs.

 

G       AB   R    H   2B   3B  HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG   OBP   SLG  OPS
113   418  53 112 17   14   11   44 14 109  11  6  .268   .290   .455    .744

G        AB   R    H   2B   3B   HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS

101   405   70 129  27   7      7   40   19 98   20 4   .319   .353   .472    .824

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Below are the stats for Rosario this year and Santana last year.

Key things you left out of that stat line -- Rosario 2015 has a higher ISO (isolated power, SLG - AVG) than Santana 2014, and a much lower BABIP (batting average on balls in play).  His overall results aren't as good but they look A LOT more repeatable (in other words, less flukey), well within the expected range based on his minor league numbers too.  Rosario is also set in the field.

 

Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but I would be shocked if Rosario crashed next year anything close to the degree than Danny Santana has.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, the Santana and Rosario comps have to stop.  They just aren't applicable comparisons.  

 

Rosario may face some adjustments next year, but I think he's already gone through a major part of that adjustment.  Even if he never increases his OBP by all that much he's still been a very nice addition to this team.    Any OBP increases are just going to be gravy if he can keep up playing defense like this and hitting for the kind of power he has.

[roger]

 

Yeah, the Santana and Rosario comps have to stop.  They just aren't applicable comparisons.  

 

Thank you!

 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I am a big fan of Rosario's tools/athleticism; because of that, he will always have the potential to have good seasons in the field and at the plate. However, I do not see any reason to believe that he will just naturally become a more patient hitter. That is not something that just comes with age or progression. Low minors bb% have been proven to not correlate with upper level minors or MLB bb%'s, so there isn't much support for him getting better in this department. 

 

I think he has had an overall good season, not great. We might overvalue him because he is young and and a Twin. He is probably under appreciated to the rest of the league, but he's probably not as good as we like to think he is. He is NOT Santana, but he sure has some scary similarities to him. 

 

Like I mentioned, I don't think the bb's will just come, but one can hope. I do think he will remain a useful player that is above average. But, I do think his profile puts him as the type of player that could have a horrendous or really good season at any time due to his horrible approach, yet amazing skills. Flawed, but good player. He is personally one of my favorite players to root for though.

 

Someone made the comment about him being moved to 5th against RHP, and I agree. I have been disappointed in the lineup construction from a platoon standpoint. Basically, he and Hicks should be flip-flopping being higher and lower in the 

lineup based on pitcher handedness. There are other clear lineup movement that should be happening too, but it's not on the top of my list of disappointing non-decisions.

 

Fun player, fun season.  

 

 

 

[David HK]

Thanks for the article, Seth-  I've enjoyed watching young Mr. Rosario all season, especially since it was a bit of a head-scratcher when he got called up, after not exactly lighting a fire in Rochester.  But he has really impressed me, and the spark of competitiveness he brings to the lineup is immeasureable.  

 

Not only that-- the hands on this guy.  Best I've seen in a Twins uni since Carew.

[TRex]

 

Yeah, the Santana and Rosario comps have to stop.  They just aren't applicable comparisons.  

 

I favor the comp of Rosario and Jacque Jones (albeit with a  better arm and capable of hitting same-siders!).

 

It would be great if he could increase his OBP, but not if it comes at the expense of being aggressive. While you can't have a whole team of hackers... it's kind of nice to have someone that can get a big hit against anyone (including Chris Sale). While he isn't Puck or Vladimir Guerrero, he can still be the same kind of disruptive force, but lower in the lineup.

[Sarah]

He has done a great job from the home run on his first pitch in the majors - the interview with his dad was priceless. "Hey Guayama, Eddie Rosario first home run!" Reminds me of when Cristian Guzman was with the Twins - triples are really fun to watch.

[Rick Niedermann]

I have always liked Eddie Rosario and couldn't understand why some of the pundits wanted to trade him for GoGo Gomez in early July.  I see a guy with the potential to hit .300 with 20 HR power for years to come. His splits are good and his defense great. Just so many assets in this young man.

[REPETE]

I LOVE Eddie, and was hoping for good things.  That said, as good as some of his OF plays are (all the assists), he makes some bonehead plays out there (the other night's "double", plus the circus catch he made going back to the track, then catching it off his kneecaps, etc).  These are things I think are correctable, and I hope his defense gets even better.  

As for hitting, who doesn't like a "hacker"?  Never met a pitch he didn't like.  I had the good fortune of sitting in 114 a week back, among a bunch of scouts.  Eddie got a 2-0 count, and one of them looks at the other and says "that's not easy to go 2-0 on Eddie."  Next pitch, SMACK! to the RCF gap for another triple.  

Gotta love the guy!

[gil4]

 

Yeah, the Santana and Rosario comps have to stop.  They just aren't applicable comparisons.  

 

When the lead sentence of the article is "Eddie Rosario is having one of the best rookie seasons in Minnesota Twins history" they are somewhat applicable.  Off the top of my head I had him at #3 in the past two years (behind Sano and Santana).

 

Going forward, the comparisons aren't very useful.  Santana's numbers last year screamed "fluke" (but so do his numbers this year.)  Rosario's numbers are in line with his past numbers, so given his age I'd say he's more likely to improve than to collapse.

[mnfanforlife]

Besides Eddie Rosario, only 1 other rookie since 1900 has had a season with 11+ HR, 14+ 3B, 11+ SB & 15+ OF assists. Who was it?

[SwainZag]

 

Besides Eddie Rosario, only 1 other rookie since 1900 has had a season with 11+ HR, 14+ 3B, 11+ SB & 15+ OF assists. Who was it?

 

No idea, but those are very specific numbers.

 

I really like Eddie and he is having a great rookie campaign.  Going forward though he is going to have to get more selective at the plate.  Striking out 25% of the time while only walking 3.2% of the time, just won't cut it.  There are 31 players in the majors this year with over 350 PA who strike out at a higher rate and none have as low of BB% and only 3 have a BB rate below 5%.   

 

Those are Chris Owings of Arizona, who has been awful offensively, Yosmany Tomas of Arizona who is also rookie and has been fairly awful as well and Jake Marisnick of Houston who is a defensive whiz.

 

While you say...well he is only a rookie and he will improve.....his splits have actually been worse in the 2nd half.  1st half: 3.9 BB%, 22.9 K%.  2nd half: 2.5 BB%  27.0 K%.  To make it even more inflated, 1/3 of his 2nd half walks have been intentional.  

 

I hope he can improve, but if he doesn't I really find it hard to imagine staying a productive player without any plate discipline. 

 

[mnfanforlife]

 

No idea, but those are very specific numbers.

 

 

It was Ival Goodman in 1935 with the Reds. Eddie had a bunch of awesome stats that no rookie has matched in literally 80 years. Rosario is an obvious starter for just about any major league outfield. I really dont care about his strikeout rates...or Sano's for that matter.