Maximizing Santana

[ThejacKmp]

So as it stands, Santana would pitch twice more this season, Sunday at the Tigers and the first game of the KC series. That seems sad for a guy who is pitching lights out for the Twins right now.

So here's a thought. What if the Twins sought to maximize Santana by starting him on three days rest the remainder of the season? That would get him pitching Saturday against the Tiggers, Wednesday at Cleveland and then the last game of the season against the Royals - the closest to a playoff game he might get.

As an added bonus, if the Twins didn't skip anyone that would shift Kyle Gibson's slot into a potential Wild Card game or Game 163. He's the eligible pitcher I most want to pitch that game so that could be huge. Alternatively, it would allow the Twins to skip any ineffective starters in that last week (e.g. Pelfrey, Hughes) if they felt the need. There’s also the bonus of giving some of your younger guys (Gibson, Duffey) and a recently injured Hughes an extra days rest between starts, potentially making them more effective for the regular season or playoffs.

 

Santana has only pitched on three days rest once in his life, way back in 2011, so there’s no track record to lean on. He should be well rested though, as he didn’t pitch the first half of the season. With a clear end of his season, he can leave it all on the field these last three starts so physically, it doesn’t seem too daunting to ask of him.

 

Anywho, just an idear. Thoughts?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

In his Career, Santana has only pitched once on three days rest.

 

Here is a link to his splits:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=santaer01&year=Career&t=p#dr

 

Couple ways to view that- either that there's no time like the present to test him, or that maximizing his value means giving him just two more starts.

 

He did get the first half of the season off, so he's probably less fatigued than the guys that have been pitching all season...

[Vanimal46]

Yep I would certainly let loose on Santana the rest of the way. No reason not to have him start 3 games out of 12 remaining when he's relatively fresh compared to the rest of the rotation. Like Jackmp mentioned, I would skip Hughes in the rotation and put Santana in there. 

[DaveW]

For some reason I thought Gibson was already lined up for the WC game? (He has like a 10.00 ERA at Yankee stadium in his career FYI)

I'd prefer Duffey start game 163/WC personally.

 

As far as three days rest, I dunno, it might be a bit risky IMO. Don't fix what's not broken in regards to Santana?

[ThejacKmp]

 

For some reason I thought Gibson was already lined up for the WC game? (He has like a 10.00 ERA at Yankee stadium in his career FYI)

I'd prefer Duffey start game 163/WC personally.

 

As far as three days rest, I dunno, it might be a bit risky IMO. Don't fix what's not broken in regards to Santana?

 

Gibson is currently lined up to pitch Game 162.  If the Twins somehow had it wrapped up (hard to see how that happens but who knows?) they could start Nolasco in a meaningless game.

 

You may be correct in not messing with Santana.  Then again, this seems like time to throw the kitchen sink - you might have to gamble on Santana's effectiveness and hope that any ill-effect is balanced by skipping guys or having other guys more rested.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Yep I would certainly let loose on Santana the rest of the way. No reason not to have him start 3 games out of 12 remaining when he's relatively fresh compared to the rest of the rotation. Like Jackmp mentioned, I would skip Hughes in the rotation and put Santana in there. 

 

Unless Hughes pitches well today. Then the only to skip is Pelfrey but I might just want everyone else to get an extra day's rest.

[SF Twins Fan]

I'm all for skipping players who are ineffective, but I'd be nervous about sending him out on 3 days rest two times in a row. He's pitching outstanding right now and that type of change could make his last 2 starts go from being very good to mediocre.

 

It's a shame Milone has fallen apart the last few starts. The Twins only have 3 effective pitchers right now. It would have been nice to finish off the year strong with Santana, Gibson, Milone and Duffey. 

[stringer bell]

Pelfrey did hold the Angels scoreless for five last outing. While he got nicked for three in the sixth, I think "five and fly" might work for him. I hope the shoulder fatigue that Milone suffered is gone, and also hope that it occurred before his last two ineffective outings. He's a good pitcher, but it seems he needs to be 100%.

[sane]

 

 "Don't fix what's not broken in regards to Santana"

That is a good point.

But there are many things broken in regards to Hughes, Pelfrey and Milone that skipping them for Santana could help the Twins.

I would rather Santana become "Everyday Ervin", than start one of those "Three Stooges" in their current condition.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'm all for skipping players who are ineffective, but I'd be nervous about sending him out on 3 days rest two times in a row. He's pitching outstanding right now and that type of change could make his last 2 starts go from being very good to mediocre.

 

It's a shame Milone has fallen apart the last few starts. The Twins only have 3 effective pitchers right now. It would have been nice to finish off the year strong with Santana, Gibson, Milone and Duffey. 

 

True. Maybe they should take it one day at a time. Send him out there on three days for the Tigers start and then see how he's feeling. Not much risked but a lot to gain. If he feels okay have him do the Indians start and then you can play Game 162 by ear.

[dbminn]

Let Santana pitch on his regular rotation days. He would be the first "all hands on deck" reliever in Game 162 - if it matters. That would be his bullpen day anyway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Unfortunately, Santana's turn has landed on our last two off days, which reduced the chances to skip other starters to get Santana more turns on normal rest.

 

Depending on how tonight goes, I think you could make a case for Santana's next start getting pushed back a day -- ESPN's probables currently has him set to face Randy Wolf in Detroit on Sunday, when he could be more useful facing Kluber again in Cleveland on Monday.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/min/minnesota-twins

 

Although with the current rotation plan, Santana would have two days off before a potential game 163 tiebreaker, meaning he could easily be available out of the pen for it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

From my link above, Santana on short rest would face Simon in Detroit, Carrasco in Cleveland, then whatever KC throws out in Game 162 (or normal rest for a potential tiebreaker game 163).

 

That could be better than letting Santana face Wolf in Detroit and Guthrie vs. KC on normal rest.

 

Although I am not sure there is enough separation in skill among the Twins starters to really make this worthwhile.

[Linus]

I think it makes sense to line up against Kluber.  Whoever takes that start is going to (most likely) spin a gem as Kluber has dominated us.  Right now, the person most likely to spin a gem is Santana or Duffey and the rest ain't even close.

[DuluthFan]

Pitching on 3 days rest might work for one start, but I wouldn't stretch that to two in a row. The Twins also need to evaluate the effectiveness of the other starters before the end of the season in case they need to pitch in the post-season.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

There's two theories on the Kluber game.  One approach is trying to match ace vs. ace, the other is letting a scrub start it as even your ace might be likely to lose against their ace.

[Linus]

 

There's two theories on the Kluber game.  One approach is trying to match ace vs. ace, the other is letting a scrub start it as even your ace might be likely to lose against their ace.

Yep, my feeling is that we are going to have to win nearly every game so I would not want to essentially hand one away by starting a scrub against Kluber.  If there were 25 games to go, probably.....

[ThejacKmp]

 

Pitching on 3 days rest might work for one start, but I wouldn't stretch that to two in a row. The Twins also need to evaluate the effectiveness of the other starters before the end of the season in case they need to pitch in the post-season.

 

That doesn't change the way the Twins would evaluate the effectiveness of their starters.  All of them are known entities with the possible exception of Hughes and those guys will all be getting regular work, just an extra day of rest.

This is really just about maximizing the value you get from Santana (who has only pitched half a season) and using it to rest guys you might need in the postseason.
 

[ThejacKmp]

 

From my link above, Santana on short rest would face Simon in Detroit, Carrasco in Cleveland, then whatever KC throws out in Game 162 (or normal rest for a potential tiebreaker game 163).

 

That could be better than letting Santana face Wolf in Detroit and Guthrie vs. KC on normal rest.

 

Although I am not sure there is enough separation in skill among the Twins starters to really make this worthwhile.

 

Santana pitching game 163 would be great.

I guess this idea has been around for a few weeks:

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/09/08/twinsights-should-the-twins-line-up-ervin-santana-for-potential-game-163/



 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins also need to evaluate the effectiveness of the other starters before the end of the season in case they need to pitch in the post-season.

Actually, no other starter would "lose" any regular season starts, unless Santana started Game 162 on short rest over Gibson on full rest.  Until that point, it's just re-arranging them so Santana might be available to start game 162 or a potential tiebreak game 163.

 

And that arrangement might be a benefit -- if game 162 is meaningful for us, and a wild card game appearance is likely, having Santana available to start (or at least pitch a lot of relieve in) game 162 and saving Gibson for the wild card game when Santana wouldn't be eligible might be a nice option.  Or using Gibson for 162 and having Santana on full rest available for a tiebreaker game 163.

[jimbo92107]

I'm still wondering what's the problem with giving a spot start to Logan Darnell. Is he only to be used from the bullpen? Is it that he's a rookie?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm still wondering what's the problem with giving a spot start to Logan Darnell. Is he only to be used from the bullpen? Is it that he's a rookie?

Darnell been sick, he hasn't pitched in 3 weeks.

 

Also, a spot start means someone else loses a start, rather than the Santana suggestion of re-arranging for match ups or Game 162/163/WC availability.  Pelfrey already lost a start to Hughes... given how long it took for Darnell to see Minnesota this year, I am not sure he'd be a better bet than either of those guys, even if he was healthy.

[Rosterman]

Get promoted to the majors and then get sick. Poor Logan Darnell. His one big chance to stay on the 40-man.

 

[DocBauer]

At work so just don't have time to pull up a schedule and compute all potential days to pitch. But...

 

I would only do the 3 day rest option one time, in order to set him up for a possible game 163. Otherwise, he gets to pitch twice, and his season may be done. I get it. Too bad he can't pitch in the post season. But I wouldn't take the risk of two 3 day rests to squeeze in the 3rd start. Not only for health, but I'm not sure you'd actually get the benefit you want out of a suddenly tired arm.

 

I hate to say it...kills me to think it, say it or type it...but you'd probably be better off with Pelfrey for 5 IP and turn to the pen.

[blindeke]

 

There's two theories on the Kluber game.  One approach is trying to match ace vs. ace, the other is letting a scrub start it as even your ace might be likely to lose against their ace.

 

First you need to have an ace for this to work.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would only do the 3 day rest option one time, in order to set him up for a possible game 163.

A short rest start Oct. 1 would make Santana available for a possible game 163, again on short rest, on Oct. 5.  Although even on the normal schedule, Santana would presumably be available in relief (2 days rest).

 

As it stands, Pelfrey would be in line to start a possible game 163 on normal rest, or Duffey on short rest (and Duffey on normal rest for a wild card game).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

First you need to have an ace for this to work.

Definitely, and that is a consideration for the current Twins.  Although the premise here is that Ervin is a lot closer to an ace at the present moment than a few other members of our rotation (notably Hughes, who is scheduled to face Kluber twice, and Pelfrey, who is in line to start a potential game 163).

[notoriousgod71]

What terrifies me about starting Santana on three days rest is I can about guarantee that his 105 pitch limit would be down to about 85. That means an extra inning or two out of our bullpen.

 

 

[kab21]

People's opinion of Santana sure changed quickly.

[DaveW]

People's opinion of Santana sure changed quickly.

he is a streaky as hell guy. Hopefully he doesn't revert to bad Santana the rest of this season.