Article: Duffey Is Ahead Of The Curve

[Nick Nelson]

While a top Twins pitching prospect dominated multiple levels of the minors this summer, fans hoped that he might be able to join the big-league club late in the season to make an impact during a race for the playoffs.

 

That is exactly what has happened. It's just not the guy we thought it would be.Jose Berrios was the most buzzworthy arm in Minnesota's system this year, and with good reason. He was named Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year by Twins Daily and will surely receive the official nod for a second time in a row when it's announced by the Twins soon.

 

Berrios might be the most talented pitcher in the organization, and in spring training many felt that he had better stuff than anyone slated for the MLB rotation. So pressure built for a call-up over the course of the season while the young righty dominated Double-A and Triple-A, posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while averaging more than a strikeout per inning. With the Twins emerging as surprise contenders, many fans hoped to see the electric hurler promoted to help during the stretch push in some capacity.

 

That didn't happen. Berrios finished up his year at Rochester and the front office elected to shut him down. However, another pitching prospect has entered the fold and has given the team as much of a boost as the Twins could have possibly hoped to receive from Berrios.

 

On Sunday, Tyler Duffey picked up a win in what could be framed as a season-saving victory. With the team having dropped the first three games of a four-game set, and in danger of falling behind the Angels in the wild-card race with another loss, Duffey played the role of stopper, firing seven shutout innings to end a five-game losing streak.

 

As we all remember, Duffey was shelled in his first start for the Twins, coughing up six runs in two innings, but that was pretty easy to excuse given that it was his major-league debut in the league's toughest current pitching environment. Since that outing, the right-hander has been nothing short of spectacular, going 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA and 43-to-16 K/BB ratio in 43 2/3 innings.

 

Leaning heavily on a standout curveball, Duffey has largely had his way with big-league hitters, who have been unable to adjust. The 24-year-old's last three starts have been his most impressive; he has pitched at least into the seventh every time out, allowing a total of three runs on 16 hits in 20 innings with 22 strikeouts and four walks. And this at a time where the Twins are in dire need of quality outings.

 

Duffey's calling card in the minors was his ability to keep the ball in yard. Prior to his call-up, he had allowed just one home run in 22 starts between Chattanooga and Rochester. This strength has been on display in the majors as well. Since giving up two bombs against the dominating Jays lineup in his first start, Duffey has allowed only one homer in seven turns. His current HR/9 rate with the Twins (0.6) is identical to his mark over 477 innings on the farm.

 

He has also been missing bats, averaging nearly a strikeout per inning overall (8.7 K/9) with the big club. The combination of piling up strikeouts while limiting home runs is a promising one, as you can see based on this list:

 

Qualified MLB Starters With >8.0 K/9 &

 

Tyson Ross, SD: 3.18 ERA

Jake Arrieta, CHC: 1.96 ERA

Gio Gonzalez, WAS: 3.83 ERA

Gerrit Cole, PIT: 2.64 ERA

Zack Greinke, LAD: 1.64 ERA

Clayton Kershaw, LAD: 2.18 ERA

Carlos Martinez, STL: 3.01 ERA

Dallas Keuchel, HOU, 2.51 ERA

David Price, DET: 2.34 ERA

Francisco Liriano, PIT: 3.41 ERA

Lance Lynn, STL: 3.28 ERA

Madison Bumgarner, SF: 2.84 ERA

Chris Archer, TB: 2.92 ERA

Jon Lester, CHC: 3.46 ERA

Jacob deGrom, NYM: 2.64 ERA

Corey Kluber, CLE: 3.44 ERA

Carlos Carrasco, CLE: 3.62 ERA

Cole Hamels, TEX: 3.67 ERA

Matt Harvey, NYM: 2.80 ERA

Chris Sale, CWS: 3.47 ERA

 

Those are some of the biggest names among starting pitchers in the game, and almost without exception, they're all having excellent years. Obviously, their success and their commonality in the K and HR categories are not coincidentally tied – these are foundational components of good pitching.

 

It remains to be seen whether Duffey can maintain his effectiveness in both regards. In particular, his strikeout rate is a bit out of line with his track record, although given the sheer beauty of his hook and the way he has continually elevated his game as a pro, it's not that hard to buy.

 

Back before he debuted, I wrote about how the former college closer and fifth round pick was proving to be a draft gem for the Twins, and that only rings more true in light of his resounding initial success at the highest level. What his future holds is difficult to say at this point, but for now he's proving to be a vital cog in the rotation.

 

Duffey is going to be an interesting piece in an upcoming offseason where Minnesota must make some decisions on a rotation that is shaping up to be a bit overcrowded heading into 2016.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

He's really been terrific since the Twins signed him. Still just 24, there is still room for improvement. He's got the right mentality to be good. Just based on prospect rankings, Jeremy had him at about 11 or 12. I had him around 14-16 before the season. His curveball has always been his calling card, but he's got a good fastball too, and the changeup has certainly been solid at times too. It's been fun to see him come up and do well. More impressive is how he overcame that first start.

[HitInAPinch]

Congratulations to Tyler Duffey on a great year!

 

So, how does Duffey fit into next years rotation?  Many are not enamored with the rotation setup.  What is (is there?) a plan to phase out some of the veterans to make room for a successful minor league, turned successful major league, pitcher?

[TNLooky2015]

He has been one of the first guys called up every year to a higher minor league level and has been lights out at each step.  Consider this - He pitched a No Hitter in his first minor league start in Cedar Rapids.  Can you say GAMER?  Seems to be a personable kid too.  Right Kid Right Call Up

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Duffey has to be the Twins best development story over the past few years (maybe longer). His comeback after the Toronto start has to show how tough-minded he is. Here's to hoping he can give some advice to Jay next season.

 

Pelfrey can't be back, right? Santana, Gibson, and Hughes are locks. Duffey makes four. That leaves the 5th starter spot open between Milone, Nolasco, Berrios (and maybe May). I like May as a starter, especially his ability to miss bats, but he's made a strong transition to the bullpen, something that's probably harder for a starter than most people initially think.

 

I don't know why we don't let Nolasco and/or Milone try the move to the pen and give Berrios a rotation spot out of spring training. I would also love to see Alex Meyer turn things around and get a look with the Twins out of the bullpen where I think he will end up.

[Dman]

A lot of people on this board were not Duffey believers despite his good K9 numbers.  Perhaps it was just the lack of faith in a reliever turned starter but I thought I heard several posters mention his fastball wasn't fast enough as well.  

 

Anyway he is looking pretty good right now and next year you have to decide what roles May, Duffey and Berrios will play with the Twins versus Nolasco, Gibson, Santana and Hughes.  I wonder if Duffey and Berrios are gonna end up in AAA most of next year again.

 

Nice to have some good pitching again and even better good young pitchers.  Things are looking up for the Twins and Duffey is big part of that.

[puckstopper1]

Several things could happen between now and next April, but there should be one opening available in the bullpen for one of the traditional "starters" - that being the "long relief" guy.  For some reason the Twins decided to have Rule 5er J.R. Graham in that role this season.  I don't see that happening in 2016 unless several injuries/trades alter the Twins pitching landscape.

[mikelink45]

Isn't is amazing what can happen when you let a young arm in to the rotation?  Here we are with a rookie and a man who is not eligible for the post season anchoring the staff - poor roster management, they need help and the rest of the staff is a finger crossed hope for the best group.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Isn't is amazing what can happen when you let a young arm in to the rotation?  Here we are with a rookie and a man who is not eligible for the post season anchoring the staff - poor roster management, they need help and the rest of the staff is a finger crossed hope for the best group.

How is that poor roster management? How were the Twins supposed to know Santana was going to be suspended for the first half of the year and not eligible for the playoffs. And having a rookie help with the push for the playoffs is great not bad management. He will be so much better off in the future having gone through a playoff race and potentially the playoffs. Hughes was great last season and has been injured all this season. The starting rotation of Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Milone and May to start the season should have been an asset. The front office had no way to know Santana wouldn't be able to pitch and Hughes ( after having a great season last year ) would be injured off and on all season.

[jmlease1]

Duffey's Uncle Charlie is a thing of beauty. I wonder if some of it's effectiveness is because of the emphasis on the slider in today's MLB as a breaking pitch? When you don't see it as often, it's got to be harder to hit a good power curve...

 

I like what we're seeing here. He's still walking a few more people than I'd like (and I'm sure the Twins aren't thrilled either), but the FIP is basically matching the ERA, the peripherals are all good, he's shown an ability to get into the 7th inning, and he's not just doing it against a bunch of weak sisters who have given up for the year. (Sure, Detroit and CWS are dead teams walking, but the Astros and Angels sure aren't)

 

Duffey isn't a lock for the rotation next season, but he absolutely should be higher up on the list than Nolasco or even Milone.

[howieramone2]

 

Isn't is amazing what can happen when you let a young arm in to the rotation?  Here we are with a rookie and a man who is not eligible for the post season anchoring the staff - poor roster management, they need help and the rest of the staff is a finger crossed hope for the best group.

You don't rebuild a team in less than 4 years with poor roster management. There is a much bigger picture out there, let me give you a big picture example. I may be missing someone, but I believe only Buxton and Duffey have made it to The Show in TR's 4 drafts. It now appears the 2012 Draft was a strong one, and though it is too early to grade his next 3 drafts, we do know they are topped off with a high pick. The point is, he has taken our favorite team from multi-year rebuilt to in the hunt without the benefit of the traditional source of improvement for mid-market teams, the draft. The best is yet to come.

[Linus]

 

Duffey's Uncle Charlie is a thing of beauty. I wonder if some of it's effectiveness is because of the emphasis on the slider in today's MLB as a breaking pitch? When you don't see it as often, it's got to be harder to hit a good power curve...

 

I like what we're seeing here. He's still walking a few more people than I'd like (and I'm sure the Twins aren't thrilled either), but the FIP is basically matching the ERA, the peripherals are all good, he's shown an ability to get into the 7th inning, and he's not just doing it against a bunch of weak sisters who have given up for the year. (Sure, Detroit and CWS are dead teams walking, but the Astros and Angels sure aren't)

 

Duffey isn't a lock for the rotation next season, but he absolutely should be higher up on the list than Nolasco or even Milone.

This.  Good old fashioned curve balls are not that common anymore and that is probably giving people some trouble.  Plus, he throws three variations of his curve which increases the effectiveness.  Though not as good, he pitches similarly to Kluber.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Qualified MLB Starters With >8.0 K/9 & <1.0 HR/9, 2015

Interestingly, Trevor May also met that criteria when he was sent to the bullpen earlier this season (if you round up his 7.95 K/9 at the time).

 

Hope we don't see either him or Duffey in next year's pen!

[jimbo92107]

Most impressive to me is Duffey's maturity as a pitcher. He arrived with a fully functional repertoire of pitches, not trying to add mph to his fastball or learning to control his curve. He pitches within himself, commanding the zone with good mechanics. You can see that his catchers love the guy, their delight apparent even as they dig a strikeout curve ball out of the dirt.

 

Improving Duffey's stuff will be a matter of tweaking his change-up and learning not to yank his fastball quite so often. If Duffey threw his change on the same flight path as his dirt ball curve, that could cause nightmares for hitters. How would you like to swing half a foot over the curve, then try to get down for the curve, only to swing half a foot under a change-up? Then you think you've got that figured out, he throws a two-seamer on the corner, and his 91mph heater looks like it's going 96.

 

Literally there's nothing a hitter can anticipate with Duffey. He'll throw the curve on any count, and he's not going to walk you. And he won't just throw the curve for a strike; it's going to be a strike low on a corner. And even his high curve has that crazy bend... Yikes.

[howieramone2]

 

Interestingly, Trevor May also met that criteria when he was sent to the bullpen earlier this season (if you round up his 7.95 K/9 at the time).

 

Hope we don't see either him or Duffey in next year's pen!

I think there is a good possibility we see both in the pen at the start of next season. May in the backend, Duffey as long/swing man. I understand the fan board would like to see May, Duffey, and Berrios in the starting rotation, but there are other combinations which are more likely to help us obtain our goal, of getting into the World Series.

[DocBauer]

Based in his milb numbers, which just seemed to get better and better as he gained experience and adapted more and more to starting, as well as the almost 50IP thus far at the ML level, I'm thinking we may be beyond the SAS concern.

 

Even with Nolasco gone, (should be one way or another), and Berrios beginning 2016 in the minors initially, (maybe-probably?), there is remains a logjam that puts May or Duffey in the pen for now. (with Milone perhaps as a LH mid-long-swing man). May has transitioned well, but has real SP stuff and potential, and should go back to starting. Meanwhile, Duffey is a converted RP with experience in that area but h a transitioned to a quality AP. Tough, tough call here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I understand the fan board would like to see May, Duffey, and Berrios in the starting rotation, but there are other combinations which are more likely to help us obtain our goal, of getting into the World Series.

If there is a chance of us developing a starter that would fit in Nick's list above, I think we have to try it.  We're not adding such a starter by trade or FA at this point, and the veterans Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco have had difficulty reaching that standard even in their primes.

 

I would be surprised if none of May, Duffey, or Berrios was in the MLB rotation at the start of next season.

[Linus]

I was going to start a new thread for this thought because it comes up frequently, but here goes.

 

I don't think there is a logjam with regards to the pitching staff in 2016.  With either a 12 or 13 man staff, you really need 15 good pitchers to make it through a season.  I don't see 15 "good" pitchers out there right now on the Twins 40 man.  No doubt we have more than 5 guys that have been starters but I don't think anybody should be hung up on that.  Some guys go to the pen - we need the help.

 

That's why I wouldn't care that much if Nolasco is not moved this off-season.  If he would be one of our 15 best pitchers next year than getting rid of him actually weakens the staff.  Certainly, he is a waste of money but if payroll is not an issue, than who cares.  I am happy that we have enough competent pitchers that we actually have to figure out the best way to use them.  Far cry from Cole DeVries and Pedro Hernandez.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

I was going to start a new thread for this thought because it comes up frequently, but here goes.

 

I don't think there is a logjam with regards to the pitching staff in 2016.  With either a 12 or 13 man staff, you really need 15 good pitchers to make it through a season.  I don't see 15 "good" pitchers out there right now on the Twins 40 man.  No doubt we have more than 5 guys that have been starters but I don't think anybody should be hung up on that.  Some guys go to the pen - we need the help.

 

That's why I wouldn't care that much if Nolasco is not moved this off-season.  If he would be one of our 15 best pitchers next year than getting rid of him actually weakens the staff.  Certainly, he is a waste of money but if payroll is not an issue, than who cares.  I am happy that we have enough competent pitchers that we actually have to figure out the best way to use them.  Far cry from Cole DeVries and Pedro Hernandez.

I agree, but I just hope if Nolasco is in the starting rotation next season it's because he earns it next spring and not because of the big contract (which so far has been a waste). I wouldn't mind seeing him start next season in the bullpen. He's been injured so much the last 2 seasons it would be tough to imagine him making it through a full season and 185+ IP as a starter.

[Dantes929]

 

I was going to start a new thread for this thought because it comes up frequently, but here goes.

 

I don't think there is a logjam with regards to the pitching staff in 2016.  With either a 12 or 13 man staff, you really need 15 good pitchers to make it through a season.  I don't see 15 "good" pitchers out there right now on the Twins 40 man.  No doubt we have more than 5 guys that have been starters but I don't think anybody should be hung up on that.  Some guys go to the pen - we need the help.

 

That's why I wouldn't care that much if Nolasco is not moved this off-season.  If he would be one of our 15 best pitchers next year than getting rid of him actually weakens the staff.  Certainly, he is a waste of money but if payroll is not an issue, than who cares.  I am happy that we have enough competent pitchers that we actually have to figure out the best way to use them.  Far cry from Cole DeVries and Pedro Hernandez.

I like the idea but also like the idea of the best pitchers pitching the most innings.  If Hughes and Nolasco are among the best 12 pitchers then they should be on the team but I would also hope that salary considerations alone don't put them in the rotation.    May, Berrios, Duffy, Gibson and Santana with Nolasco, Hughes, Milone, Jepsen and Perkins would be fine with me.     I only want to be rid of Noalsco because I am afraid salary considerations will give him preference.    I remember defending Liriano when people criticized him and wanted him gone because he didn't fit their definition of an ace.    I said forget about him being an ace and confine your judgment to whether or not he is one of the 5 best starters or could be one fo the best 7 in the pen.    Likewise with Nolasco.   I don't care if he doesn't earn the contract.   If he is useful as a relief guy then great.    If he hates it and demands a trade that is all right also.   If he actually earns a spot in the rotation that is all right also.  If they give it to him because they are paying him a lot of money, then not so great. 

[Dantes929]

 

A lot of people on this board were not Duffey believers despite his good K9 numbers.  Perhaps it was just the lack of faith in a reliever turned starter but I thought I heard several posters mention his fastball wasn't fast enough as well.  

 

 

I wish people would get over this whole velocity thing.    It is stuff that matters and not all guys throwing 88-91 mph are created equal.     Velocity is an element of "stuff" but command, movement, change of speeds and break are all part just as big a part.  90 MPH is plenty fast if the other elements are there.   I would love a guy that throws 97 with all the other elements but guys that throw 97 are not all created equal either and that guy that has it all is pretty rare.

[DocBauer]

And you are absolutely right about a team putting the best 12 arms on the staff...or in some cases...15 when you think about injury at some point.

 

However, while this is correct in theory, it's not always practical. A guy with really good stuff doesn't automatically make for a SP. Likewise, not all guys can handle coming in to a game with runners on base, or working with the frequency that a RP often does. And, while I generally don't like single batter or couple batter specialists like a true LOOGY, at times in the pen you do need that guy who can help better in certain situations.

 

Nolaso MIGHT be one of the Twins top 12-15 arms next season, (depends on if they make a trade or FA signing or two) but I doubt he sees the bullpen. I don't think there is a team in baseball that would stick a $14 arm in the bullpen for long or middle relief unless it was temporary or post season. Nolasco needs to go, start over, and the Twins will probably pick up half the remaining contract, maybe toss in another lower level prospect, all in hopes of freeing up the spot, the other $7M per, and get something more than a bag of balls back.

 

So while I agree with you to a certain point, and while I think the Twins have about 10 arms I could click off right now that I think are near certainties for 2016, I believe roles still have to be considered and sometimes subtraction must be made for the good of all involved.

[DocBauer]

BTW...while I have generally backed both Ryan and Molitor with their decisions, actions, and in some cases non-actions, IF the team were to open next season with May AND Duffey BOTH out of the rotation, I think there should be some real hell to pay.

[Thrylos]

Duffey really was not a strikeout pitcher until he went to Rochester the second half of last season.  Maybe Mason should be getting some credit here...  Not sure what happened but his FB increased by a couple mph when that jump happened.

 

Another detail that should not be lost, is that he has pitched 185 innings this season (second to Gibson's 186 in the organization.) 

We shall see how he continues.   I do like the fact that he is throwing his FB less than 60% of the time and his curveball more than 35% of the time.  As long as hitters do not adjust to the CB, he might be alright.  The issue with him was that he had been (as still is, as he has been throwing a change about 3% this season) a two pitch pony, and not sure whether that is sustainable for a starter.  Pitch f/x does not like his curve for some reason.

 

Good to see him succeed.  Will be interesting to see what the future will hold.  Still, I think that there are 3-4 better options under 28 years old for the Twins rotation in 2016 than Duffey (Gibson, May, Berrios, Meyer) plus there are Nolasco, Santana and Hughes (and I am not mentioning the single lefty in the SP equation)  Hard to see him break the Twins' rotation next season.  Definitely a trade high probability...

[Linus]

I also agree that a lack of change up doesn't bode well for long term starting success and may make him better suited for the bullpen.  However, the fact that he has about 3 different curveballs (speed wise) mitigates that to a certain degree.

 

I think the Twins deserve some credit for recognizing that he could be an effective starter.

[TheLeviathan]

Twins made a great call with bringing up Duffy and putting him in.

 

I hope they make an equally good call next year to keep him in the rotation.  (And bring May along with him)

[h2oface]

Duffey has been wonderful. There would have been nothing wrong with both of them, Duffey and Berrios, both looking great. 

[jmlease1]

Duffey has pitched well enough that someone like Nolasco needs to out-pitch him to beat him out for a spot in the rotation. While most organizations wouldn't put a guy making a gazillion dollars into a long-relief role in the pen...the Twins would be smart to do it with Nolasco.

 

Duffey is looking like the better pitcher right now, who still has upside. Nolasco is a bad contract that they need to find some value from. Why not move him into the pen where he might stay healthy? Let a guy like Duffey keep piling up innings and bending knees with the Uncle Charlie.

 

Right now, the rotation for next season should be: Hughes, Gibson, Santana, Duffey and either Milone/May/Berrios. Sorry, Ricky: Duffey has passed you.

[kab21]

Observations

 

- I am happy that one of the many college RP'ers has been able to transition to the starter role

 

- I look at swstr% for flukey K rates.  For example Worley always had ridiculously low swstr%.  Duffey's swstr% is very good and means that he could maintain a good K rate even if it is a little lower.

 

- Pelfrey should be given a handshake and told that he isn't needed

 

- Nolasco should be told that going into spring training there isn't a roster spot for you (bullpen or rotation) and you need to lights out or injured to avoid being cut.  This won't happen but it should.

 

- Milone is the tough decision.  Extra starters are always needed but his arb price won't be cheap, he doesn't have much trade value and I would like Duffey and May to start out in the rotation with Berrios as the 1st guy up.

 

Santana

Hughes

Gibson

May

Duffey

Milone - long relief

Berrios - AAA

[stringer bell]

 

Observations

 

- I am happy that one of the many college RP'ers has been able to transition to the starter role

 

- I look at swstr% for flukey K rates.  For example Worley always had ridiculously low swstr%.  Duffey's swstr% is very good and means that he could maintain a good K rate even if it is a little lower.

 

- Pelfrey should be given a handshake and told that he isn't needed

 

- Nolasco should be told that going into spring training there isn't a roster spot for you (bullpen or rotation) and you need to lights out or injured to avoid being cut.  This won't happen but it should.

 

- Milone is the tough decision.  Extra starters are always needed but his arb price won't be cheap, he doesn't have much trade value and I would like Duffey and May to start out in the rotation with Berrios as the 1st guy up.

 

Santana

Hughes

Gibson

May

Duffey

Milone - long relief

Berrios - AAA

Why would Milone have a high price tag but no trade value? If he has produced, he has value. If he hasn't he doesn't. The fact that he is cost-controlled should add to his trade value.