Duffey, Gibson, Santana... then Who?

[jimbo92107]

The downfall of the 2015 Twins team should come as a surprise to nobody: Starting pitching. Nolasco, Santana, Hughes and Pelfrey were the high-priced arms this team bought to provide veteran stability. Instead, they got injured, or simply didn't perform up to expectations. Molitor made lots of adjustments at the beginning of the season, including sending Trevor May to the pen, which worked pretty well but retarded May's progress as a starter. 

 

Now it's late in the season, and we see the problem with these bargain basement veteran starters. Hughes is breaking down again, Pelfrey stopped using his fork ball, Nolasco is just coming off the DL, and Santana is just now starting to pitch like he still can. 

 

That leaves some big problems in the starting rotation. Twins now have three starters that are unlikely to implode, thus giving up one of the few precious games they can afford to lose. Hughes has lost zip on his heater, so he's getting rocked early and often. Pelfrey's stuff sans fork ball is good for about three innings, then around the second time through the order, BOOM. 

 

At this point what I'd like to see is Pelfrey swap spots with May, despite the lateness in the season. Pelf is still good for a couple innings per appearance, and May is strong enough to do maybe four innings before he runs out of gas. Then it's up to Gibson, Duffey and Santana to pitch as many games as possible, with maybe Darnell filling in for a spot start. It won't work, but at least it's a strategy.

 

Next season I want to see a starting rotation of Santana, Gibson, Duffey, May and Berrios, with Hughes, Nolasco and Pelfrey in the pen, available for occasional spot starts. 

[jimmer]

 

Next season I want to see a starting rotation of Santana, Gibson, Duffey, May and Berrios, with Hughes, Nolasco and Pelfrey in the pen, available for occasional spot starts. 

why, oh why, would we re-sign Pelfrey yet again?

[jokin]

 

why, oh why, would we re-sign Pelfrey yet again?

 

And surely, Hughes won't be going anywhere... while Nolasco will be on the trading block this offseason, in exchange for the proverbial bag of balls.

[SF Twins Fan]

Never going to happen. May might be good for 3 innings tops. He hasn't thrown more than 30 pitches since Aug. 14 (which was the spot start he made)

 

Next season I'm assuming Berrios will be in AAA until the end of April (Same thing Cubs did with Bryant this season and it makes sense to do.  Twins will hopefully start the season with Santana, Hughes, Gibson, May and Duffey as their starting 5.  (No particular order) Pelfrey is gone as he's a FA and the rotation is full and he doesn't want to go to the bullpen yet.  It will be tough to find a spot for Nolasco and Milone.  Nolasco could potentially go to the bullpen and maybe that would be best for him since he hasn't pitched much the last two years.  Milone doesn't project as a good bullpen arm with his low velocity.  Not sure what to do with him.

[jimbo92107]

why, oh why, would we re-sign Pelfrey yet again?

With his build and his normal two-pitch mix of 2/4 seam fastballs and average slider, Mike Pelfrey could be a very good middle reliever. He keeps his heater low in the zone, and his slider is just good enough to get some strikes if guys sit dead red. Add to that the usual bull pen uptick of 2mph, and you've got a reliable 2-inning guy that throws mid-90's heat. Pelfrey belongs in the pen now. 

[sane]

 

With his build and his normal two-pitch mix of 2/4 seam fastballs and average slider, Mike Pelfrey could be a very good middle reliever. He keeps his heater low in the zone, and his slider is just good enough to get some strikes if guys sit dead red. Add to that the usual bull pen uptick of 2mph, and you've got a reliable 2-inning guy that throws mid-90's heat. Pelfrey belongs in the pen now. 

Don't forget his splitter, like he apparently has.

[rghrbek]

 

With his build and his normal two-pitch mix of 2/4 seam fastballs and average slider, Mike Pelfrey could be a very good middle reliever. He keeps his heater low in the zone, and his slider is just good enough to get some strikes if guys sit dead red. Add to that the usual bull pen uptick of 2mph, and you've got a reliable 2-inning guy that throws mid-90's heat. Pelfrey belongs in the pen now. 

We all agree he belongs in the bullpen now, however as far as your comment on Pelfrey being in the pen next year?   No chance.   He still wants to be a starter and will take less to get that chance, I am guessing.

[Vanimal46]

Honestly I never thought I would say this, but let's see what Nolasco's got at this point in the season. Maybe he can put together a 5 inning outing that won't shoot us in the foot. I don't trust Hughes at all right now. Maybe he's still trying to play through the pain since we're at the pivotal stages of this season, but the lack of velocity is alarming.... Pelfrey should not see another start as a Minnesota Twin, and Trevor May is too far gone from being a starter this year.  

[Halsey Hall]

Pelfrey's stuff sans fork ball is good for about three innings, then around the second time through the order, BOOM.

 

Shut out thru 5 innings last time.  If you're going to give Nolasco 5 innings, I'd stay with Pelfrey, just give him 5 only. 

[DocBauer]

I trust in believe in Hughes for next season. For now he's a cross your fingers and hope option with his back. Unfortunately, might be the same for Milone now as well.

 

Might have to make another promotion. Might have to consider something similar to a bullpen game at some point here, lousy as that sounds. Darnell starting if he gets strength back?

[nicksaviking]

I've wanted to see Pelfrey in the pen all year, and actually had optimistic thoughts on it.

 

Pelfrey did not want to see Pelfrey in the pen and clearly had negative thoughts on it.

 

I can't see him re-signing here if there's a decent chance he'd end up in the pen.  His flukey season was just good enough for him to get a handful of suitors who will give him a rotation spot, heck, he might even be pretty good if he goes back to the NL.

 

I'll be pretty bummed if the rotation doesn't include four guys under the age of 30 by next June, but I'm not getting my hopes up.  I'd also be willing to shop Gibson to open up a spot for the younger guys.  Gibson should probably go somewhere that insists he use his more superior slider as opposed to his sinker for his out pitch anyway.  He'll be grateful in the long run when his strikeouts increase and he gets paid accordingly.

[jimbo92107]

Never going to happen. May might be good for 3 innings tops. He hasn't thrown more than 30 pitches since Aug. 14 (which was the spot start he made)

 

Next season I'm assuming Berrios will be in AAA until the end of April (Same thing Cubs did with Bryant this season and it makes sense to do.  Twins will hopefully start the season with Santana, Hughes, Gibson, May and Duffey as their starting 5.  (No particular order) Pelfrey is gone as he's a FA and the rotation is full and he doesn't want to go to the bullpen yet.  It will be tough to find a spot for Nolasco and Milone.  Nolasco could potentially go to the bullpen and maybe that would be best for him since he hasn't pitched much the last two years.  Milone doesn't project as a good bullpen arm with his low velocity.  Not sure what to do with him.

True that Pelfrey could be gone to FA, but what other team would give him serious money as a starter, unless he gets back his fork ball out pitch? Even then, who thinks he'll use it all season, after he stopped using it this year? Pelfrey has a choice at this point in his career: Be an average to bad starter, or a very good middle reliever. 

 

Hughes I'm assuming will NOT get back the zip on his heater. At 89-91mph, Hughes does not have the stuff to survive as a starter. Again, in the bullpen that could change. Not having to pace himself might get back a couple mph, and his command is good enough to do relief work even with an average heater. On the other hand, if Hughes shows up next spring with his former 95mph heater, then fine, put him in the rotation. Just remember, he needs that velocity to get guys out. His fastball doesn't move enough to fool guys that way, and even a well-spotted heater won't cut it unless he's got a great secondary, like an amazing change-up, or Duffey's cosmic curve ball experience. 

 

Nolasco is a bigger question mark. If he shows up in spring with more physical problems, just cut him. Otherwise, he's another guy that might thrive in the pen, with no worries about pacing himself. Less likely is that he comes back after three years of physical troubles as a reliable starter. Even so, do you trust him more than you'd trust younger, healthier guys like May, Duffey and Berrios? No way. 

 

Point is, the Twins may be able to salvage some value from these high-priced veterans, but they can't stop the progression of good starters coming up. Berrios belongs in the majors, and could quickly become a star. Duffey looks like a really good starter. May looked good as a starter, and should again. Gibson has become a good, reliable mid-rotation guy. And Santana will be legal all season!

 

One other factor - At least one good flame throwing reliever should make it up next season. Meyer, Burdi, Chargois, Reed... somebody. Hopefully we'll still have Jepson and Perkins to platoon at closer. It's easier to stock a bull pen than a starting rotation. That's what I think Pelfrey, Hughes and Nolasco should be doing next year. 

[jimbo92107]

Don't forget his splitter, like he apparently has.

That's why Pelfrey belongs in the pen now. His splitter / fork ball disappeared. Apparently he lost his feel for it, or batters stopped swinging at it, or both. Without that pitch, Pelfrey is not a good starter. But he can still get a few outs as a middle reliever before they figure out his fastball / slider. 

[jimbo92107]

Honestly I never thought I would say this, but let's see what Nolasco's got at this point in the season. Maybe he can put together a 5 inning outing that won't shoot us in the foot. I don't trust Hughes at all right now. Maybe he's still trying to play through the pain since we're at the pivotal stages of this season, but the lack of velocity is alarming.... Pelfrey should not see another start as a Minnesota Twin, and Trevor May is too far gone from being a starter this year.  

It's quite a puzzle, figuring out which of these guys might be able to still go five innings without giving up a 5-run frame. My first guess is May, but in truth, it could be that none of them can do it right now. Closest thing to stretched out is Logan Darnell. He might even have an advantage, if he can avoid first-game jitters. 

[jimmer]

 

With his build and his normal two-pitch mix of 2/4 seam fastballs and average slider, Mike Pelfrey could be a very good middle reliever. He keeps his heater low in the zone, and his slider is just good enough to get some strikes if guys sit dead red. Add to that the usual bull pen uptick of 2mph, and you've got a reliable 2-inning guy that throws mid-90's heat. Pelfrey belongs in the pen now. 

he belongs in someone else's pen in 2016, not ours. 

[jokin]

 

. That's what I think Pelfrey, Hughes and Nolasco should be doing next year. 

 

With Jepsen and Perkins as the co-closers? (and presumably , wouldn't that make the Twins holding the dubious honor of possibly the most expensive bullpen in all of baseball?)

 

1) Nolasco $12M

2) Hughes  $9.2M ($49M over next 4 years)

3) Perkins  $6.5M

4) Jepsen  $6.0M (Arb award estimate)

5) Pelfrey  $5.5M  (based on 2015 salary)

6) Boyer   $2.5M (FA est.) or Fien $2.5M (Arb award est.)

7) LH RP- Cotts $3M (FA est.) or Duensing $3.5M (FA est.)

 

 That comes out to ~$45M- just for the bullpen.  By contrast, the LA Dodgers 2015 RP payroll is around $20M. 

 

I just don't see this as a very likely scenario...

 

[Dantes929]

I would not write off Milone off after two lousy starts.   He deserves to go out there at least one more time.   I really, really hope the 2016 rotation you list of Santana, Duffey, May, Gibson and Berrios is what we see for a good chunk of the year.   It appears to have the potential of pretty awesome.

[Craig Arko]

I think I read that Milone has a shoulder issue that may keep him shut down for the remainder of the season. Not 100% sure on this.

[Kwak]

 

I think I read that Milone has a shoulder issue that may keep him shut down for the remainder of the season. Not 100% sure on this.

Yes, I read where Hughes will replace Milhone in the rotation--and Hughes was recently demoted to the pen!  This must be a negative development.  The rotation for the rest of 2015 will be:  Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Pelfrey and Duffey.  Everyone else in the pen, unless "injured".  Nolasco?  He won't start until/unless the Twins are eliminated.  The Hughes experiment should convince the Twins to not duplicate that with Nolasco until the games are meaningless--or someone else "goes down".

 

Next season?  The rotation will be begin:  Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Duffey, and Nolasco.  Milhone and Berrios in Rochester waiting like vultures.  May will find himself as the 7th inning guy, with Jepsen and Perkins dukeing it out for the 8th and 9th inning(s).  XXX only knows who the rest of them will be--and how many!

[Badsmerf]

What a catastrophe that May is being banished to the bullpen. I seriously don't care to make assumptions about what the Twins will do with their starting rotation. The futility has become unbearable for me. It is finally nice to have some talent, just a shame that my faith in the decision makers is so low. 

[jimbo92107]

 

With Jepsen and Perkins (and presumably , wouldn't that make the Twins holding the dubious honor of possibly the most expensive bullpen in all of baseball?

 

1) Nolasco $12M

2) Hughes  $9.2M ($49M over next 4 years)

3) Perkins  $6.5M

4) Jepsen  $6.0M (Arb award estimate)

5) Pelfrey  $5.5M  (based on 2015 salary)

6) Boyer   $2.5M (FA est.) or Fien $2.5M (Arb award est.)

7) LH RP- Cotts $3M (FA est.) or Duensing $3.5M (FA est.)

 

 That comes out to ~$45M- just for the bullpen.  By contrast, the LA Dodgers 2015 RP payroll is around $20M. 

 

I just don't see this as a very likely scenario...

All depends on how the young pitchers look in spring training. If May, Berrios and Duffey all look good, what do you do, stash mlb ready starting talent in AAA or the pen? 2016 should be the year the Twins start coming on strong with the new core players. Why hobble the new team with an aging rotation that's no longer physically able to give you a full season of competitive pitching? Better to have these veterans in the bullpen, where they can fill holes, mentor younger guys and provide spot starts. 

[bird]

 

What a catastrophe that May is being banished to the bullpen. I seriously don't care to make assumptions about what the Twins will do with their starting rotation. The futility has become unbearable for me. It is finally nice to have some talent, just a shame that my faith in the decision makers is so low. 

 

I wonder how many games out of the hunt we'd be without May dominating the 8th inning night after night. Not sure that hasn't been a really solid decision.

 

 I also cringe about whether we'll get a decent or a horrific start from Hughes, Milone, Pelfry and even Gibson. However, the "futility" that you find so unbearable and seem to blame on poor decisions? Are you cutting the FO ANY slack? Santana cheated us out of better than half a season. Nolasco was respectable for awhile and then went down for months. Hughes missed almost two months. Meyer pooped his pants. Pelf was out for awhile and now Milone has joined the injury list....

 

Despite all that, The Twins rotation has been middle-of-the-pack ( #16 in MLB) at 4.19ERA. Cleveland, everyone's favorite coming in to the season, is 4.00ERA. That's not all that much better than the Twins and the best in the division. CWS is .04 better right now than the Twins at 4.14. You might recall that, this spring, many wished the Twin's decision-makers measured up to the smarter guys at KC (4.39ERA) and Detroit (4.83ERA).

 

Exactly how does this support the notion that the decision-making of our FO has been as deplorable as you suggest? 

[jimmer]

The Indians' rotation FIP is 2nd in the AL, while the Twins is 8th.  The Indians rotation is also 3rd in IP while the Twins are 10th. The Indians rotation also K'd more per 9IP than any team in the AL while the Twins are 13th in K/9 IP.

 

Indians rotation is clearly better than the Twins.

[jokin]

 

All depends on how the young pitchers look in spring training. If May, Berrios and Duffey all look good, what do you do, stash mlb ready starting talent in AAA or the pen? 2016 should be the year the Twins start coming on strong with the new core players. Why hobble the new team with an aging rotation that's no longer physically able to give you a full season of competitive pitching? Better to have these veterans in the bullpen, where they can fill holes, mentor younger guys and provide spot starts. 

 

I like your thinking on this situation, but TR has dug himself a bit of a hole here- gotta think the Twins' solution to this dilemma will look more like:

 

-non-tendering Pelfrey and perhaps, both Fien and either Cotts/Duensing,

-trading Nolasco for another bad contract, and if that fails, trying to "showcase" him early on in 2016 as a starter, 

-trading Milone (I believe he's out of options),

-and giving the guy they just extended out to 2019- Phil Hughes- every possible chance to claim a 2016 starting spot.

[Blackjack]

Theres no such thing as too much pitching!!! Pitching is what wins ballgames!!!  Good starting pitching is what got the Twins to this point, playing meaningful games in September.

 

TR realized a couple years ago that the team needed better starting pitching and went out and signed the veterans Santana, Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey. None of them are aces but they've helped the Twins to the current winning record.

 

Next spring the competition for the five starting spots will be intense but thats good for the Twins team as a whole.  Sure there will be some disapointments from the starters, young or old, that get sent to the bullpen or AAA but the competion is good for the Twins TEAM. Eventually they'll all get their shot, injuries happen, the Twins are better off to have too many good starters rather than too few.

[twinssouth]

Over $100,000,000 in Contracts and none of these guys have done jack s$$$$ in this play off drive.  Oops, sorry, Santana had one nice outing and Pelfrey gave us 5 innings.  Ok, I feel better.

 

Meanwhile, the Rookie Duffey, whose never pitched this many innings, has been most reliable starter.

[nicksaviking]

 

TR realized a couple years ago that the team needed better starting pitching and went out and signed the veterans Santana, Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey. None of them are aces but they've helped the Twins to the current winning record.

 

Next spring the competition for the five starting spots will be intense but thats good for the Twins team as a whole.  Sure there will be some disapointments from the starters, young or old, that get sent to the bullpen or AAA but the competion is good for the Twins TEAM. Eventually they'll all get their shot, injuries happen, the Twins are better off to have too many good starters rather than too few.

 

While that's good that Ryan realized the rotation needed upgrades, it wasn't something everyone else didn't know when it was filled with Diamond, De Vries and Deduno.  He made upgrades, and I give him tons of credit because previously I didn't think he would ever be able to bring himself to give out a free agent contract of any decent size.  I didn't like the kind of guys he brought in for the most part, but I said at the time that I was impressed that he was able to pull the trigger.

 

The problem is, the game took a pretty severe 180 in the last couple of years.  Those vet arms that Ryan thought he needed look pretty cringe-worthy now.  It's the young arms that rule the game today, they are fresher and throw harder.  There have really only been 8 guys who have started this year.** Is there really any question if you were to rank them in effectiveness, it would follow pretty closely to their age: Duffey 24, May 26, Gibson 27, Milone 28, Hughes 29, Pelfrey 31, Santana 32, Nolasco 32.

 

Sure, it's a bit flukey that it matches up so closely, but it's not abnormal, only 4 of the top 20 pitchers in WAR this year started the year older than 30.  I don't think a spring competition is good, the vets will have the advantage due to seniority and contract and the young guns need time to adjust, but they aren't going to be able to adjust to MLB hitters sitting in AAA.

 

**Only 9 guys have started this year and one of those was Graham in the early season bullpen game.  Big congrats to the players, training staff, managers, front office or whomever else had a hand in that.

[HitInAPinch]

 

And surely, Hughes won't be going anywhere... while Nolasco will be on the trading block this offseason, in exchange for the proverbial bag of balls.

I would think Nolasco would be put on the waiver wire long before the Twins embarrass themselves by trying to trade him.

[bird]

 

The Indians' rotation FIP is 2nd in the AL, while the Twins is 8th.  The Indians rotation is also 3rd in IP while the Twins are 10th. The Indians rotation also K'd more per 9IP than any team in the AL while the Twins are 13th in K/9 IP.

 

Indians rotation is clearly better than the Twins.

 

No question about that. SI did pick them to win the WS.

[jokin]

 

I would think Nolasco would be put on the waiver wire long before the Twins embarrass themselves by trying to trade him.

 

As I noted down-thread, there certainly is a chance to trade bad contract for bad contract... some sort of deal with Jose Reyes as a centerpiece, for example.