Article: Twins Minor League Report (9/17): Max Kepler's Grand Salami

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins squandered an early 5-0 lead and eventually fell 8-11 to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Despite the loss the Twins remain just a game and a half behind the Houston Astros for the second Wild Card spot in the American League.

 

In the minor league playoffs, both the Chattanooga Lookouts and the Cedar Rapids Kernels played Game Two of their respective league championship series. Let's take a look at how they did.Lookouts Look In

Chattanooga Lookouts @ Biloxi Shuckers

Jason Wheeler vs. Adrian Houser

Final Score: Lookouts 6, Shuckers 1

Box

 

The Lookouts took a 1-0 lead in the top of the first inning on a Max Kepler solo home run. They extended their lead to 5-0 in the fifth after another Max Kepler homer, this time a grand slam! In the seventh the Shuckers had the good sense to intentionally walk Max Kepler only to see the next batter, Travis Harrison hit an RBI single to put the Lookouts up 6-1.

 

Max Kepler was the hero of the evening for the Lookouts, finishing the game 2-4 with a pair of runs scored, five RBIs and a walk. Kepler's two home runs were the Lookouts only extra-base hits of the evening. Shortstop Heiker Meneses was 2-3 with a walk and number nine hitter, Shannon Wilkerson, was 2-4.

 

Jason Wheeler pitched seven innings of three-hit baseball, surrendering just a single run and taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning. All three of of hits Wheeler gave up came in quick succession in the bottom of the sixth as the first three hitters singled. Wheeler struck out five and walked three. Nick Burdi gave up a hit and a walk in the eighth inning but recorded a pair of strikeouts to keep the Shuckers scoreless. J.T. Chargois walked the first hitter in the bottom of the ninth to give Biloxi some hope, but made quick work of the next three hitters to send the Shuckers home.

 

Game Three is on Saturday in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

 

 

Kernels Korner

Cedar Rapids Kernels @ West Michigan Whitecaps

Sam GIbbons vs. A.J. Ladwig

Final Score: Kernels 1, Whitecaps 4

Box

 

The Kernels led the Whitecaps 1-0 going into the bottom of the seventh inning before allowing four runs to lose the game. Sam Gibbons was cruising through six, but gave up a walk and a double to start the inning, putting runners at second and third. The next batter singled home a pair of runs. The lead runner scored easily, but the second runner was ruled safe a home despite never touching the plate as the home plate umpire ruled that Kernels' catcher Brian Navarreto was blocking the plate without the baseball. Kernels manager Jake Mauer came out to argue the call and was relieved of his managing duties. With Gibbons still in the game and now down 2-1, the next batter laid down a sacrifice bunt to move the runner over and a throwing error by Gibbons allowed the runner to reach, putting runners at the corners with no outs, ending Gibbons' evening. The Whitecaps scored two more runs in the seventh to extend their lead to 4-1.

 

Gibbons' final line on the night was 6+ innings pitched, five hits, four runs (two earned), a walk and four strike outs. Yorman Landa pitched the final two innings. Landa gave up one hit, one walk and struck out three.

 

The Kernels offense managed just six hits, with a pair of them coming from designated hitter Max Murphy, who tripled home the only run of the night in the second inning. Chris Paul was 1-4 with a double and came around to score on the Max Murphy triple. On the evening the Kernels sent 34 men to the plate and did not earn a single walk.

 

Game Three is on Saturday in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

 

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[diehardtwinsfan]

seems like Kepler's power of late has spiked.  Wonder if he's growing into his frame a bit more.

[roger]

Have a question about Kepler.  The Lookouts season ends in a few days, will he be called up to the Twins for the last dozen games this year?

 

Considering he will likely begin 2016 in AAA, service time shouldn't be a problem.  Add that he is already on the 40-man roster, he doesn't need to be added posing a problem with exposing another player to the Rule 5 draft.  So the barriers to a callup are limited...will he get the call?

[TNLooky2015]

Kepler's swing is so so sweet.  He hits the ball as hard as anyone he' seen, Doug mentioned in an article earlier in the season. Those line drive doubles will definitely turn into HRs like last night, as he gets bigger.  That's why he's the MVP.  Kid can hit.  The best play of the game was his run saving diving catch earlier in the game.  It kept the momentum from shifting.  Awesome catch.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Have a question about Kepler.  The Lookouts season ends in a few days, will he be called up to the Twins for the last dozen games this year?

 

Considering he will likely begin 2016 in AAA, service time shouldn't be a problem.  Add that he is already on the 40-man roster, he doesn't need to be added posing a problem with exposing another player to the Rule 5 draft.  So the barriers to a callup are limited...will he get the call?

 

Correct. He'll certainly start next season in AAA, so Service Time won't be an issue. I think he's a given to come up. (though I don't know)

[Eric R Pleiss]

 

Have a question about Kepler.  The Lookouts season ends in a few days, will he be called up to the Twins for the last dozen games this year?

 

Considering he will likely begin 2016 in AAA, service time shouldn't be a problem.  Add that he is already on the 40-man roster, he doesn't need to be added posing a problem with exposing another player to the Rule 5 draft.  So the barriers to a callup are limited...will he get the call?

I think he gets a call once the Lookouts are done playing baseball.  

[dbminn]

Nice to see the Lookouts playing so well after a tough second half of the season. They lost Sano, Buxton and Berrios but have come together in the playoffs.

 

It looked like everyone pitched around Kepler the last few weeks of the regular season. He probably won't see many good pitches the rest of this series if the opponents are smart.

Edited September 18, 2015 by dbminn

[clutterheart]

Gordon has looked good in this playoff run..not bad

[nytwinsfan]

Interesting to see how the Twins make room for Kepler next year. I agree he will probably start in AAA, and there is some chance injuries may create room for him in the outfield, but not sure how he fits into the lineup otherwise, unless they trade Plouffe or decide to platoon in the outfield.

[Jham]

Someone on the radio said that Molitor had hinted that Kepler would likely join the team after their season ended.  But those darn Lookouts just keep winning.  

 

I hope MIentkiewicz doesn't bolt to another organization (Red Sox).  He's moved up with many of his best prospects.  That list is starting to dwindle with ABW and Kep likely to jump to AAA next season and Polanco, Bux, and Sano already gone.  I don't know how interested he'll be in bringing along Gordon et al next season, although the Kernals may be a championship squad too.

[DJL44]

Kepler will probably come up but I have doubts that he will play much. Polanco may come up also.

 

If Mientkiewicz doesn't get a big league job he's probably going to stay put.

 

I've been more impressed with Jake Mauer turning a bunch of mostly non-prospects into winners. Mientkiewicz had it easy in comparison.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Interesting to see how the Twins make room for Kepler next year. I agree he will probably start in AAA, and there is some chance injuries may create room for him in the outfield, but not sure how he fits into the lineup otherwise, unless they trade Plouffe or decide to platoon in the outfield.

Well, I don't really think that Rosario has done anything to show that he warrants an automatic corner spot. He has been good for stretches and in certain areas, but he most certainly a very flawed player, with chances of future failure a realistic possibility. Buxton is always an injury risk, and hasn't shown he is close to hitting MLB pitching. Hicks is also frequently dinged up, and can't hit RHP's, and needs to prove a more sustained level of success.

 

Buxton, Rosario, and Hicks all have potential to improve, or at least stabilize, but the chance of going the other direction is just as good too. So, the odds that one fails and opens the door for Kepler is likely, at least at some point in the season. It is not like Hicks or Rosario can't be a 4th OF'er or platooned. They aren't automatic everyday start kind of guys. I like them, but just being realistic. 

 

IF, and this needs to be realized that this "IF" isn't guaranteed by any means, that Kepler hits well again next year...there will most likely be a path to playing time for him, once they can ensure his clock being delayed.

 

Homers usually forget that young players regress, just as often as the progress. Being young does not mean a consistent climb in performance over time. Heck, even if it just the mere forgetting their muscle-memory mechanics over the winter. Some guys lose and never figure out how to recapture what it was that made them successful.

[Loosey]

So when the top prospects in baseball rankings come out this winter, where do we expect to see Kepler on that list?  He has to be close to becoming a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, right?

[Seth Stohs]

My  sense is Mientkiewicz will have a big league job in 2016. Somewhere. We'll see, and I think Mauer gets an opportunity in Chattanooga. I think Tommy Watkins becomes the manager in Cedar Rapids. 

[Loosey]

 

 

Someone on the radio said that Molitor had hinted that Kepler would likely join the team after their season ended.  But those darn Lookouts just keep winning.  

 

I hope MIentkiewicz doesn't bolt to another organization (Red Sox).  He's moved up with many of his best prospects.  That list is starting to dwindle with ABW and Kep likely to jump to AAA next season and Polanco, Bux, and Sano already gone.  I don't know how interested he'll be in bringing along Gordon et al next season, although the Kernals may be a championship squad too.

I would hate to see Mientkiewicz bolt as well.  I personally don't see Molitor as a guy who would want to manage long-term.  Even if the Twins have success (pure speculation here) I don't envision Molitor as the type of guy to be a 5 year manager.  I can see him doing this 3 years or so and then going to relax somewhere while helping out in Spring Training to get his baseball fix.  Again this is just my opinion. 

[clutterheart]

 

My  sense is Mientkiewicz will have a big league job in 2016. Somewhere. We'll see, and I think Mauer gets an opportunity in Chattanooga. I think Tommy Watkins becomes the manager in Cedar Rapids. 

 

Really?  Why?  Have you heard rumblings to that effect?  Do you think the Twins jetison someone on their staff?  There are lots of coaches in the minors who want big league jobs and I think its unlikley that some other team poaches him from the Twins system.  

[nicksaviking]

 

seems like Kepler's power of late has spiked.  Wonder if he's growing into his frame a bit more.

 

Maybe he's auditioning for Danny Santana's full-time LH pinch hitting gig?

[blairpaul715]

 

So when the top prospects in baseball rankings come out this winter, where do we expect to see Kepler on that list?  He has to be close to becoming a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, right?

Well , i am no scout, but Kepler is maybe a Top 50, but definitely no Top 10........would love to be wrong and have the scouts rank him that high, I am hoping they think he is Top 50 in all of baseball.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Really?  Why?  Have you heard rumblings to that effect?  Do you think the Twins jetison someone on their staff?  There are lots of coaches in the minors who want big league jobs and I think its unlikley that some other team poaches him from the Twins system.  

 

pure speculation, and it should be pointed out that I thought Jake would go to the Red Wings this year with Tommy taking over in Cedar Rapids. So, I have no idea.

 

I think Mientkiewicz will have big league opportunities this offseason again. I don't know if that'll be with the Twins or another organization. 

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

pure speculation, and it should be pointed out that I thought Jake would go to the Red Wings this year with Tommy taking over in Cedar Rapids. So, I have no idea.

 

I think Mientkiewicz will have big league opportunities this offseason again. I don't know if that'll be with the Twins or another organization.

Again pure speculation--but there will definitely be a job open here in DC this winter. Wouldn't be surprised to see Doug interviewed even if he doesn't get job.

[Guest]

I’ve looked at the video of that “blocking the plate without the ball” call against Brian Navarreto and the Kernels several times now and every time I see it, I’m more convinced it was an awful call.

 

First of all, if you’re going to make that call, it had better be obvious. If it’s not, you don’t insert your borderline judgement on an obscure call in to a postseason game. But in this case, it really wasn’t all that much of a close call, imo.

 

You can view the video at this Michigan TV station’s report (probably elsewhere, too, but I found it here first):

 

http://woodtv.com/2015/09/17/whitecaps-game-2-midwest-league-championship/

 

You get the bonus of seeing Max Murphy’s RBI triple before they show the pivotal play.

 

The critical play comes at about the :38 mark on the video.

 

Note Navarreto is set up inside the baseline even at :44 in the video. At :45 he begins to step across the line to make the catch as the throw is nearing the plate. By then, the runner is already beginning his dive/slide well wide of home plate. He was not (as his manager claims in the interview at the end of the clip) forced to go around by the catcher prematurely blocking the plate. He elected to go wide to avoid a potential tag (which was absolutely the correct thing to do – but he wasn’t forced to do so).

 

At :46 the slide is wide of home and Navarreto is attempting, but failing, to make a tag.

 

At :47, the runner still hasn’t touched home and Navarreto is continuing to pursue him to make the tag. The umpire has his hands outward and upward. Navarreto told me in the clubhouse that he heard the umpire call the runner “out.” The runner never did touch the plate (not that he needed to in the case of a catcher blocking the plate illegally).

 

By :48 the umpire is pointing at the dirt in front of the plate, but the video then edits out several minutes of activity before showing Mauer arguing.

 

What isn’t shown is that the umpire pointed a few more times at the dirt, then came back around behind the plate and made what looked an awful lot like an “out” call.

 

The people running the scoreboard sure thought that’s what was called as only 1 run went up on the scoreboard. The Whitecaps manager came down the 3rd base line to talk to the umpire and that’s when the umpire motioned to the pressbox that 2 runs had scored and the 2nd was added to the board.

 

That’s when Mauer came out to get an explanation, which he clearly wasn’t happy with. A long and heated argument took place with both home plate and 3rd base umpires, then Mauer walked back to the dugout. Something more was said from the dugout (though I’m not sure it came from Mauer) and that’s when the manager was tossed.

 

As Mauer said afterward, it appeared that the umpire made 3 different calls. Pretty shoddy work imo and I still don’t see Navarreto blocking the plate without the ball. Certainly the catcher has to be free to move to his left to make a catch and that’s all he did.

 

Edit: Here's the rule (emphasis added)-

Unless the catcher is in possession of the ball, the catcher cannot block the pathway of the runner as he is attempting to score. If, in the judgment of the umpire, the catcher without possession of the ball blocks the pathway of the runner, the umpire shall call or signal the runner safe. Notwithstanding the above, it shall not be considered a violation of this Rule 7.13 if the catcher blocks the pathway of the runner in order to field a throw, and the umpire determines that the catcher could not have fielded the ball without blocking the pathway of the runner and that contact with the runner was unavoidable.

Edited September 18, 2015 by SD Buhr

[h2oface]

 

My  sense is Mientkiewicz will have a big league job in 2016. Somewhere. We'll see, and I think Mauer gets an opportunity in Chattanooga. I think Tommy Watkins becomes the manager in Cedar Rapids. 

I sure hope that the twins don't let the best manager go to manage another team, and keep the incumbent, ala the Vikings letting Mike Tomlin go and keeping Brad Childress. That would be a shame.

[jimbo92107]

Well, I don't really think that Rosario has done anything to show that he warrants an automatic corner spot. He has been good for stretches and in certain areas, but he most certainly a very flawed player, with chances of future failure a realistic possibility. Buxton is always an injury risk, and hasn't shown he is close to hitting MLB pitching. Hicks is also frequently dinged up, and can't hit RHP's, and needs to prove a more sustained level of success.

 

Buxton, Rosario, and Hicks all have potential to improve, or at least stabilize, but the chance of going the other direction is just as good too. So, the odds that one fails and opens the door for Kepler is likely, at least at some point in the season. It is not like Hicks or Rosario can't be a 4th OF'er or platooned. They aren't automatic everyday start kind of guys. I like them, but just being realistic. 

 

IF, and this needs to be realized that this "IF" isn't guaranteed by any means, that Kepler hits well again next year...there will most likely be a path to playing time for him, once they can ensure his clock being delayed.

 

Homers usually forget that young players regress, just as often as the progress. Being young does not mean a consistent climb in performance over time. Heck, even if it just the mere forgetting their muscle-memory mechanics over the winter. Some guys lose and never figure out how to recapture what it was that made them successful.

Kepler will platoon with the other three OF's next year, also spelling Mauer at 1st base. Rosario, Buxton and Hicks will continue to play great outfield, with no drop off for Rosario, who will improve at the plate with at least 22 home runs, and an average of about .270. Rosario will be the steadiest player on the team. He reminds me a little of Bryce Harper. He has upper deck power that isn't going away.

 

Buxton will start hitting line drives on a regular basis, and around the All Star break will start banging balls over the fence, but not soon enough for All Star votes. 12 to 15 dingers next year. Buxton's base stealing will improve drastically as he learns to lead off better and read pitchers. He will be a constant threat to bunt for hits.

 

Hicks will continue to improve his lefty hitting, but his power numbers will still be better from the right side.

 

Kepler will struggle at the plate briefly, then start hitting tons of line drives. A polite young man, he will hit balls into the gaps and maintain a high average until around mid-season, then finish with 15 or so homers in the last three months.

 

Sano will hit 38 homers next season, then 42 or more for the next 15 years. This is what my eyeballs tell me, but they could be lying. Damn my eyes!

[shs_59]

old friend Danny Valencia ABSOLUTELY MASHING

 

he should be Batter or offensive player of the month in not just the AL but the ENTIRE MLB.

 

Good for 'ol danny boy

 

my guess is Kepler squeeks onto Baseball America's off-season top 100 list

 

probably somewhere between 50-100.

 

But i Wouldn't be suprised to see MLB.com leave him off altogether, Jonathan Mayo and Callis and Co.  have never been Kepler's biggest fans.