Who's the man up the middle?

[kab21]

The Twins have actual legit MI prospects that could become good MLB players but they don't have a glut of MI prospects.

 

There are of course exceptions to this but the typical trade is like this:  late 20's (or older) veteran that is getting a little expensive is traded for prospects.  One team is usually rebuilding and the other team is contending. 

 

If you are trading Dozier then you are considering the Twins to be the rebuilding team in that equation and they aren't.  They don't need more prospects except at catcher. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, Dozier is a well above average second basemen and he's borering on elite play.  No way I trade him.  Polanco won't put up the numbers Dozier is putting up... not any time soon I should say and quite possibly not any time ever.  I'm not against trading Dozier for the right price, but I don't see any scenario where he brings back anything reasonably close to equaling what he's doing right now.   He's under contract for 3 more years, and I've seen little to indicate that Polanco or Santana are ready right now.  

 

Now if one of those guys has a monster year in AAA in 2016, we can have that discussion... until then, I'd leave this one alone.

[ThejacKmp]

I am sure I will get a lot of flak , but Dozier is not untouchable, meaning we could/should trade him, if we can get a high quality player back.......I love his HR and his defense, but his pull happiness has me frustrated with him, and we should be able to find a 2nd basemen with his same defensive prowess(he is good, not great) and hopefully a better BA and or OBP.

I like how the author asked very positive questions and then the first reply is negative about Brian dozier. Love me some twins daily but too large of a percentage of people here are only happy wehn it's raining. :-)

[dougkoebernick]

Look at Dozier's stats and you'll find so many things to love about him - I would prefer not to trade him.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doziebr01.shtml

[ThejacKmp]

 

Just to be clear, I'm pretty much on the fence on this one (like any choice with arguments to be made on both sides ), and not really inclined to trade Dozier. I just find these second half fades disconcerting, and since it seems like they come from pitchers making adjustments and Brian not making adjustments in return, there's a risk some year soon that he doesn't start out hot.

 

Please for the Love of Sano, can we stop buying into the myth that Dozier had a fade last year?  This year Dozier has had a tough second half but it’s just plain old-fashioned wrong to think that happened last year.  Here are his splits first half and second half in 2014:

.242/.340/.436/.776
.244/.352/.387/.739

 

There's a fall off in slugging but an increase in OBP. Overall this is not much of a drop off and certainly not a fade. That false narrative is almost entirely driven by the differences in his home runs, which we focus on way too much.  Dozier had 18 HR to 5 HR between the two halves but also had 16 doubles and no triples vs 17 doubles and one triple.  As the first half has 100 more at bats than the second half, the real story is a little less pop with some home runs turning into doubles. This myth of Dozier falling apart in the second half last year colors the way we look at Dozier this year.  He's slumping but a strong finish here could change that entirely. We certainly shouldn’t be building patterns out of one half season and a mistaken impression of another half season.

 

As for trading him, that's ludicrous. He's on a team friendly deal and the Twins cupboard for 2016 is bare other than him. You'd be starting Nunez at 2B or transitioning an unproven Santana/Polanco to 2B at the major league level. I don't have to look up his numbers to know that isn't an improvement. Did we all forget the Alexi Casilla/Luis Rivas years? The Twins haven't had a competent 2B since Knoblauch. We should enjoy Dozier, not trade him away.

 

And please, the next time you see someone on Twins Daily or IRL talk about how Dozier always fades in the second half, introduce them to this funny thing called statistics. We can do better than rehashing the tired plotlines of the FSN broadcast.

[ThejacKmp]

 

But this amounts to the same scenario as when it was deemed wise to shop both Span and Revere because Hicks had had a good season in AA. (Actually Hicks 2012 numbers at New Britain were  better than Polanco's 2015 in Chattanooga.)

 

Plus the twins in 2013 were not a contending team. They were a team with no advanced elite pitching prospects and a glut of OF talent coming up the pipeline. They sold high on Revere and got value for Span. Hicks would've needed to be Mike Trout to make the Twins contenders in 2013 and we all knew that. The situation is not the same in 2016, where the Twins have a chance to be a contending team and can't be focused solely on developing the next wave of talent.

 

Right now we would be creating a gaping hole at 2B in the hopes of maybe solving C. That might be the correct move if the Twins cupboard was bare but there are so many better places we can trade for to solve our one gaping hole, C. Plouffe at 3B is great but there is an elite replacement available. We have outfield surplus whether you want to trade a minor prospect (Arcia) or an elite prospect (Kepler/Rosario). Note I would never trade Kepler/Rosario but if you put a gun to my head and said we have to trade from 2B or OF, I'm taking OF every time. Hell, we could trade some of our A league pitching talent (Stewart etc.) if we really needed a C. Not 2B though. Maybe next year if there is significant prospect development? And Escobar shows that he is for real and not just a one-year wonder?
 

[Thrylos]

Been a while since I saw the words "Rivas" and "competent" in the same zip code

 

2010: Casilla 100 OPS+, Hudson 96 OPS+ and Hardy 96 OPS+ is close to the answer to the OP

[slash129]

Let's trade Kirby Puckett.  We have Pedro Munoz tearing it up in Portland.

[nicksaviking]

I'd trade Dozier if the Twins were getting back some elite talent.  So in other words, if they are made an offer they can't refuse. 

 

His second half slide would probably keep that from happening, but with the dearth of 2B in the league right now, you never know.

 

Personally, I think Dozier puts together a more complete year next year, and I'd bet good money that he changes his approach in the off-season.  I think most people forget that Dozier was a completely different hitter prior to 2013.  In the minors he was mostly a decent average hitter with good on-base skills and his 2012 season with the Twins show that he hit (poorly) to all fields.  It appears to me that he only started to be a dead-pull hitter after he or the team saw what kind of success Willingham had doing just that at Target Field.

 

I don't know if Dozier will be able to adjust, but there's no doubt both Dozier and the team realize there's a problem here, so I'd be shocked if they don't try some adjustments for next year.

[blairpaul715]

 

I like how the author asked very positive questions and then the first reply is negative about Brian dozier. Love me some twins daily but too large of a percentage of people here are only happy wehn it's raining. :-)

Lets see, i called him good not great, i guess that is negative......I say I love his HR's and defense, i guess that is negative, but you only look at "I am frustrated" and think I am negative......or maybe because i say we could trade him if we get a high quality player back......i guess you only see the glass half empty and didnt see the glass half full statement.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Lets see, i called him good not great, i guess that is negative......I say I love his HR's and defense, i guess that is negative, but you only look at "I am frustrated" and think I am negative......or maybe because i say we could trade him if we get a high quality player back......i guess you only see the glass half empty and didnt see the glass half full statement.

 

I just mean that the question was "Because of all the negativity on these forums lately, I thought I'd start a debate on which shortstop/2nd basemen are you most excited about?"

 

There was not a hint of negativity to that (inf act it was explicitly asking for no negativity) and your post went straight to "we should trade dozier, he's not that good." That's negative and belonged in another thread. You said you liked his HR and D but then listed four things he wasn't very good at. It isn't what % negative you were, it's that you went there at all. You didn't even accompany it with "because I'm super excited about _______" or "we can gamble on losing dozier because _______ seems ready".  This author asked us to have a fun positive discussion about exciting prospects and the first reply was anything but.

 

It's not personal or saying you are wrong, it's just that in an amazing season, every TD thread turns into griping. Yours took it in that direction. Heck the guy who started it gently chastised you for not being positive and asked who you were excited about and then you gave one sentence on guys you were excited for before jumping back into the trials and tribulations of Brian Dozier. It just belongs in another thread.